1991- The Ukrainian Referendum
A Referendum of Independence
Out of all the nations that were voting to leave, Ukraine was the one most people looked into, because they, along with Azerbaijan, were the most on the fence. While the latter would end up leaving due to a growing closeness with Turkey and suspected irredentist movements that was leading to growing friction between them and Iran, Ukraine was a bit more fascinating. While they were one of the bigger influences toward pushing for the "confederation" based model of government that would become the SUSR, they were still rather cautious if not skeptical on the whole ordeal. Many would attribute this due to the past history Russia has had with its Eastern European neighbors, especially with Belarus and Ukraine. Both of these nations have been more part of Russia proper rather than their own state and Ukraine in particular has a past of trying to go and create their own state, including prior to the formation of the Soviet Union.
As such, perhaps it wasn't as big as a surprise when Ukraine would decide to rather try and hold a referendum over on whether or not to be independent.
As many people as possible was encouraged to go ot and vote over whether or not for Ukraine to finally be independent. It was all meticulously counted and double-counted to make sure. The general concensus was that it would most likely pass because of historical reasons. While relationships have improved considerably, especially because of the economic reforms and liberalization of certain aspects during the reforms, more than a bit of bad blood remained and Ukraine wanted to test if their people truly wanted to be fully independent of Russian influence.
Gorbachev could not do anything to stop it though noted some concerns regarding some potential territory issues, mainly that of Crimea. However, when the results got back, things were a little more interesting than expected.
While Ukraine did ultimately vote to leave, it was closer than expected. However, the truly interesting part was the distribution of who wanted to stay and who wanted to leave. While the western half was very insistent on leaving, it was fairly more split over on the eastern side of the country though still edging out closer to independence. However, one region of the nation was very much for remaining... Crimea.
Enter the Tatars
Even at their most optimistic, with Crimea, it was likely to be a close call, maybe 55% at most. It was somewhat unsurprising that they would vote to remain over in the SUSR, though their gap was larger than that of the others, showing that they were pretty serious on the matter. While the other parts of the nation could potentially settle for not being with Russia, the gap with Crimea meant that it was a big enough matter that it may need to be taken seriously over their faith.
However, matters were complicated even more with a wild card of a people: the indigenous people of Crimea, the Crimean Tatars.
Back in 1989, the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union would condemn the removal of Crimean Tatars back from their homeland. The whole ordeal being declared inhumane, it began a process of the Crimean Tatars slowly coming back to their homeland. However, the growth of various activists and leaders such as Yuri Bekirovich Osmanov and Mustafa Abduldzhemil Jemilev were promoting for the Crimean Tatar people to have a say on the matters, trying to speak to both sides on the matter. However, the two men had different approaches and ideals, with Jemilev have a seperatist approach compared to Osmanov's more reconciliatory approach regarding resettling the Crimean Tatar people. Both of their parties were in a quasi-competition and would get the spotlight shined on them thanks to various groups in the media, foreign and domestic, pointing it out.
Especially given how the predominance of the people voting to remain in Crimea were Russian and there was some growing tension growing there with the Tatars coming in to their homeland. And each side saw an opportunity to go for their advantage. Ukraine appealed to the Crimean Tatars and noted their shared past of having dominated with Russia and extending an olive branch of peaceful prosperity in their homeland, with some would-be legislators even considering an "autonomous territory" deal with them.
Meanwhile,the Russians had their own reasons for wanting Crimea, primarily because it was the site of the Black Sea fleet for them and thus, an improtant strategic point. The fact that a majority of the people there in Crimea would want to remain over with the SUSR is also a considerable point to take. However, there was also the issue of the Tatars to consider, especially now that attention was brought to it. There was also the Ukrainian popuation there and of course, others who would've preferred just staying in Ukraine. And so they were forced to go to the table to negotiate to try and nip this situation in the bud.
Cracking Crimea
The Russians, being the
de facto head of the SUSR and Gorbachev was somewhat stuck on the situation. Ukraine meant alot over to Russia and has historic and tradtional ties. However, at the end of the day though, Gorbachev and his growing faction believed that it was up to the people of Ukraine to decide what they wanted to do. While they were an influence in the treaty becoming more confederal in execution, the fact they kept pushng for it while the other nations were more okay with the original plan gave the notion that they were really wanting more to be independent. It was the end of the USSR, but moreso than that, it was addressing that issues and thought patterns that led to the USSR collapsing in the first place, mainly an inability to change and moving on from the troubles that haunted them since the days of the Tsardom. Gorbachev and the transitional of Ukraine were discussing potential solutions to the issue on the matter.
Ukraine was not willing to give up Crimea, at least without compensation and the Russians knew that paying could upset the populace. More aggressive actions were immediately taken off the table for it. Another idea was on possibly ceding some land over to Russia from Crimea in exchange and have them live there but while the eastern oblasts, mainly the Luhansk & Donetsk oblasts, were the ones that did have the biggest suport for remaining, it was still not even half the population. Additionally, they did not show much interest in actually breaking off from Ukraine itself. Of course, as tensions were increasing on the matter, someone proposed a simple solution.
Dividing Crimea.
Between a roughly Ukrainian west and a Russian east, with the former becoming a state for the Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars and the latter becoming one for those who wihed to remain. It was simple enough though it would no doubt require efforts on both sides to cooperate. Neither side was entirely happy about the situation, but they did not have many other options. The Crimean Tatars were willing to accept this under the condition that they also get Bakhchysarai, the city that held Crimean Khans' palace and the only major monument left due to Soviet destruction. The Russians agreed though they also wanted Sevastopol, or at least most of it, as they were willing to divide it up, just as long as they got the bigger share. This was a pragmatic choice and despite a bit of tension, it would be agreed.
To help further ease up, Ukraine and Russia offered to help settlers from Ukraine's side to move to Russia itself even regarding funds and transportation. Given the growth going on with the cities, a fait bit of people took up on the offer. All while Russia's Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Ukraine's Autonomous Oblast of Qırım would be born. Despite the tenseness, both nations used to try and move forward with their relationships, avoiding much if any bloodshed.
Crimean Consequences
While nothing serious came out of it, it did establish a tension between Ukraine and the SUSR. Soon afterward, they would begin communicating more with their neighbors, especially Poland, on alliances and economic support. They along with Europe in general began sending aid over to the Ukrainians moreover. While Ukraine struggled with te decision, they would join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, though they would destory only
most of their supplies. Additionally, they would keep the infrastructure of design and production it inherited from the USSR, though it would be utilized primarily for nuclear power creation. Many claimed that the Crimea situation made Ukraine more cautious on trusting Russia. After all, while Gorbachev did possess a very good reputation in Ukraine, they had to think of the long term. At the same time, they welcomed in the growing Crimean Tatar population from across the world, notably from Uzbekistan and Turkey.
Russia meanwhile did walk away rather unscathed and relieved violence did not occur though did note this damage relations with Ukraine for a bit. Not to mention having to make sure the splitting was done well and the population was as well. Granted, Russia and the SUSR's growing economic opportunities did intrigue people to go more to the mainland, not just from Crimea, but from also the border regions of Ukraine and Russia. President Askew did congratulate Gorbachev on peace and offered assstance if need be. Some of this did come in how some of the people took the offer to immigrate to the US.
Despite the tensions, the hopes were that matters could continue to settle and become peaceful.