Plausibility Check: USSR and Weimar Germany partition Poland in 1920

[Vinization]

Like it says on the tin. Assuming the USSR wins the Battle of Warsaw and basically conquers Poland, would they partition it with the Weimar Republic in exchange for diplomatic recognition or something similar? Let's say the latter gets bits of Silesia, the Corridor and Posen, basically restoring their eastern border before WWI, while the former gets everything else?

What would be the effects of something like this? Do the Baltics get taken over by the USSR as well? Does this make the rise of the Nazis more or less likely? Would Stalin still seize power in the aftermath of Lenin's death?

 

[Awkwardvulture]

I'm not sure about how this would affect the Nazis(they may either be emboldened by this or those who wanted the eastern border back will be satisfied), but if I remember correctly Stalin took something of a hit to his reputation during the failed campaign IOTL, so his rise may be more secure here.

 

[Snaut]

If Poland is conquered in 1920 a partition is very probable. It may or may not last in the medium term, depending on how the Red Army does during its subsequent invasions of countries such as Czechoslovakia or Romania. With Poland out of the picture the Baltic States are doomed.

 

[Vinization]

If Poland is conquered in 1920 a partition is very probable. It may or may not last in the medium term, depending on how the Red Army does during its subsequent invasions of countries such as Czechoslovakia or Romania. With Poland out of the picture the Baltic States are doomed.

Czechoslovakia and Romania seem a bit much. Wasn't the Red Army exhausted at this point? But yeah, I can definitely see the Baltics being conquered in the mid twenties, if only to provide a barrier between Leningrad and the west.

 

[Snaut]

Czechoslovakia and Romania seem a bit much. Wasn't the Red Army exhausted at this point? But yeah, I can definitely see the Baltics being conquered in the mid twenties, if only to provide a barrier between Leningrad and the west.

The Red Army was indeed exhausted and overextended, but the leadership was still willing to push its limits. They were already suffering from victory disease when approaching Warsaw. If Warsaw falls they will be euphoric.

 

[Vinization]

The Red Army was indeed exhausted and overextended, but the leadership was still willing to push its limits. They were already suffering from victory disease when approaching Warsaw. If Warsaw falls they will be euphoric.

If they did try to push the army further, they'll suffer a very embarrasing defeat. Red Hungary was no more, and pretty much everyone on the south of the Carpathians would gang up on the Russians if they tried to push through.

 

[Mikey]

In 1920? It's going to be a huge problem for the western Allies for Germany to immediately start expanding into the territories it just gave up. The Treaty of Versailles is barely dry, and re-annexing Poland immediately is a major breach of that treaty. The Rhineland was still being occupied; this would probably lead to it being outright annexed (and the occupation of the rest of the German state).

 

[Vinization]

In 1920? It's going to be a huge problem for the western Allies for Germany to immediately start expanding into the territories it just gave up. The Treaty of Versailles is barely dry, and re-annexing Poland immediately is a major breach of that treaty. The Rhineland was still being occupied; this would probably lead to it being outright annexed (and the occupation of the rest of the German state).

On the other hand Germany takes the place as the west's "shield" against the USSR. I wouldn't be surprised if they were allowed to rearm much sooner. Sure, the partition would be ugly, but then again it's better than having the Soviets controlling the Corridor.

 

[Mikey]

On the other hand Germany takes the place as the west's "shield" against the USSR. I wouldn't be surprised if they were allowed to rearm much sooner. Sure, the partition would be ugly, but then again it's better than having the Soviets controlling the Corridor.

Not in 1920. For one thing, the West might be startled by the Soviet victory over Poland, but they're not cowering from the Red Army just yet, it's a victory over a country that just came back into existence for the first time in centuries. They might intervene (using, perhaps, German soldiers like the OTL Freikorps, but under their own command) to ensure that some Polish state continues to exist. For that matter, the Russian Civil War isn't entirely over yet, a Soviet victory that actually threatens Central Europe is going to change the stakes of that battle quite dramatically.

And at the same time - even if Germany does take possession to chunks of Poland, how are they going to keep it as a demilitarized state, having now alienated any possibility of cooperation with anyone else?

 

[Veiovis]

The Weimar republics existence as a coherent nation state capable of directed action in 1920 was still kinda...theoretical. Together with the entente breathing down its neck I doubt they could seriously even offer such a parition, much less make it stick.

 

[Vinization]

The Weimar republics existence as a coherent nation state capable of directed action in 1920 was still kinda...theoretical. Together with the entente breathing down its neck I doubt they could seriously even offer such a parition, much less make it stick.

The Soviets would.

 

[Veiovis]

The Soviets would.

I was unclear, I meant "offer" in the sense of "realistically put it on the table as an option", wether the discussion started form their side or the Soviet one.

 

[Mikey]

The Soviets would.

I mean, they might. But think for a minute about what that means: it's a proposal for an alliance between the Soviet Union and Germany, for the conquest of Poland, a member state of the League of Nations, formally, a French ally, and informally, an ally with Britain, the United States, and Italy, as well as its neighbors. The USSR was, meanwhile, a pariah state unrecognized by the major powers at this point, and Germany was a defeated and demobilized power partially occupied by the Allies

To the extent there was sympathy for the USSR in any of those countries, that umbrella wouldn't extend to Germany, and it would wear out even for the Soviets if they're pursuing an imperial project in Poland.

This is, in short, a resumption of the hostilities of World War I, except that Germany has managed to enter the war without actually having an army or a navy. Germany was still on the brink of starvation even with the Allied blockade recently lifted; it would immediately resume in this scenario, and the French army would be in Berlin within a week. Germany, having immediately repudiated the Treaty of Versailles, would no longer be a country on the map; it'd start to look more like it did while Napoleon was drawing boundaries, and Poland would be restored.

This is, in short, not plausible. You'd be better off with the USSR wholesale annexing Poland (still difficult), or a full-scale Bolshevik revolution in Germany participating instead of Weimar.

 

[BlackDragon98]

I don't Germany could annex Poland, given that Versailles had just been concluded.
A far more likely result is that Germany takes back Posen, keeps Silesia, and takes back Danzig, all under the guise of forming a bulwark against communism, which the Allies would probably have to accept given the situation.

 

[BlackDragon98]

They might intervene (using, perhaps, German soldiers like the OTL Freikorps, but under their own command) to ensure that some Polish state continues to exist.

The Freikorps would never fight for a Polish state because they hated the Poles for being the primary beneficiary of the Versailles treaty and the fact that the new Polish state annexed a lot of land that was previously part of Germany and had been for quite a long time.
For example in the OTL Silesian uprisings, the Freikorps were noted for their brutality against the Poles.

Silesian Uprisings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"About 21,000 Germans soldiers of the Weimar Republic's Provisional National Army (Vorläufige Reichsheer), with about 40,000 troops held in reserve, quickly put down the war. The army's reaction was harsh; and about 2,500 Poles were either hanged or executed by firing squad for their parts in the violence."
That was the first uprising.

"A particular concern was to prevent a recurrence of violent acts against Polish civilians by members of the Freikorps, demobilised Imperial German army units that had refused to disband."
This was noted in the section about the third uprising.

Hell would have to freeze over before the Freikorps defended Poland.

 

[Mikey]

The Freikorps would never fight for a Polish state because they hated the Poles for being the primary beneficiary of the Versailles treaty and the fact that the new Polish state annexed a lot of land that was previously part of Germany and had been for quite a long time.
For example in the OTL Silesian uprisings, the Freikorps were noted for their brutality against the Poles.

Silesian Uprisings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"About 21,000 Germans soldiers of the Weimar Republic's Provisional National Army (Vorläufige Reichsheer), with about 40,000 troops held in reserve, quickly put down the war. The army's reaction was harsh; and about 2,500 Poles were either hanged or executed by firing squad for their parts in the violence."
That was the first uprising.

"A particular concern was to prevent a recurrence of violent acts against Polish civilians by members of the Freikorps, demobilised Imperial German army units that had refused to disband."
This was noted in the section about the third uprising.

Hell would have to freeze over before the Freikorps defended Poland.

Good point, I think - they wouldn't fight for Poland, anyway. But they'd probably be happy enough to fight against the USSR, and if the scenario includes a Bolshevik revolution in Germany, they'd fight against that. Polish independence would be fairly low on the list, but they'd end up as allies of convenience. Poland wouldn't be the motivation though, you're right, and they'd probably fight against Polish nationalists to be sure, but it would be in the context of a broad anti-Communist coalition.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Good point, I think - they wouldn't fight for Poland, anyway. But they'd probably be happy enough to fight against the USSR, and if the scenario includes a Bolshevik revolution in Germany, they'd fight against that. Polish independence would be fairly low on the list, but they'd end up as allies of convenience. Poland wouldn't be the motivation though, you're right, and they'd probably fight against Polish nationalists to be sure, but it would be in the context of a broad anti-Communist coalition.

By 1920, the communist revolution in Germany (the 1918 one) had been completely crushed, its leaders executed and its followers scattered.
The Russian Bolsheviks would know that supporting another communist revolution in Germany would only drive the country into the Allied camp.
Therefore, they would probably offer the Germans a better deal in exchange for their non-involvement in the destruction of Poland; the return of Posen and the Danzig area and the retention of Silesia.
To make it look less suspicious, the Germans could "attack" those areas right after the Soviets pull out.
They could claim that those lands were vital to it's defense against the Soviets and the Allies couldn't really do much about it, unless it wanted to alienate the only big country in Europe that bordered the USSR, a country that was already pissed at the Allies because of Versailles.

 

[Mikey]

By 1920, the communist revolution in Germany (the 1918 one) had been completely crushed, its leaders executed and its followers scattered.
The Russian Bolsheviks would know that supporting another communist revolution in Germany would only drive the country into the Allied camp.
Therefore, they would probably offer the Germans a better deal in exchange for their non-involvement in the destruction of Poland; the return of Posen and the Danzig area and the retention of Silesia.
To make it look less suspicious, the Germans could "attack" those areas right after the Soviets pull out.
They could claim that those lands were vital to it's defense against the Soviets and the Allies couldn't really do much about it, unless it wanted to alienate the only big country in Europe that bordered the USSR, a country that was already pissed at the Allies because of Versailles.

Well, yes. But I don't know you get a Soviet-German alliance without it in 1920, either as a revived uprising sparked by Soviet advances and support, or by going back and changing the 1919-1920 part. The fact that it's a real longshot in any version is why I'm skeptical of the premise here.

It all really pushes the question forward: Who in Germany is accepting this alliance, and who's in charge of the military endeavors? It doesn't seem at all like Ebert, so maybe we need the Kapp Putsch to be successful, resulting in a rapidly re-militarizing German state that's ready to start reconquering territory? That's going to be a tough sell as a Soviet ally or as a Western one.

If you need Soviet backing to do any of this, I'm not sure why you don't just have a Soviet advance all the way through Poland, and if you don't, I don't know how it's at all possible. The Allies aren't worried about alienating Germany in this context - they're still celebrating their recent humiliation of the Kaiser, they're not going to pull any punches with whatever successor seems to be going full-bore militarist while simultaneously cozying up to the USSR.

Maybe you do it without Weimar at all, as some kind of Freikorps-controlled pseudostate in German areas of Poland, or centered on an East Prussian state that refuses any relationship with Berlin? Some kind of surviving German-dominated Courland state with Soviet backing?

 

[Saci]

Germany can just occupy those parts after polish resistance to soviet invasion has crumbled. Considering how things were a close call regarding the silesian partitions, I'm pretty sure the germans can make a good case of having a better claim to Katowice and pomeralia than Russia!

 

[raharris1973]

I mean, they might. But think for a minute about what that means: it's a proposal for an alliance between the Soviet Union and Germany, for the conquest of Poland, a member state of the League of Nations, formally, a French ally, and informally, an ally with Britain, the United States, and Italy, as well as its neighbors. The USSR was, meanwhile, a pariah state unrecognized by the major powers at this point, and Germany was a defeated and demobilized power partially occupied by the Allies

To the extent there was sympathy for the USSR in any of those countries, that umbrella wouldn't extend to Germany, and it would wear out even for the Soviets if they're pursuing an imperial project in Poland.

This is, in short, a resumption of the hostilities of World War I, except that Germany has managed to enter the war without actually having an army or a navy. Germany was still on the brink of starvation even with the Allied blockade recently lifted; it would immediately resume in this scenario, and the French army would be in Berlin within a week. Germany, having immediately repudiated the Treaty of Versailles, would no longer be a country on the map; it'd start to look more like it did while Napoleon was drawing boundaries, and Poland would be restored.

This is, in short, not plausible. You'd be better off with the USSR wholesale annexing Poland (still difficult), or a full-scale Bolshevik revolution in Germany participating instead of Weimar.

Parts of the Soviet leadership (Trotsky and the Red Army), and German politicians and the Reichswehr leadership did in OTL propose restoration of the 1914 eastern German border with a Red Poland in the event of Soviet victory.

Western workers in Germany and Britain took an anti-Polish stance in the Soviet-Polish war. French workers may have as well. Can the French really afford to mobilize an army to march across Germany over such a trifling matter as basically German militias picking up scraps of ex 1914 eastern German territory, off of a dead anti-communist Polish state?
Especially when French centrists and conservatives have concerns about domestic worker disturbances, and propaganda among the French left probably claims that the ulterior motive of any French military expedition isn't crush German militarism, nowhere in evidence in France or its borders at the moment, but instead for domestic repression, crushing German workers and then the Soviet Union?

The British really recoiled from post-WWI military entanglements. Are the French going to be much different, especially over scraps of a Polish carcass, when that's not even to collect money for France?