I think long term it's very likely for Turkey to become an SSR, which means population transfers will occur. I'd think the Soviets will send a bunch of Turks into central Asia and send a buch of Armenians in European Russia into the expanded Armenian SSR too. Hell, maybe a bunch of Armenians that went to Greece go back to Armenia.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
I'd say that rump Turkey is more likely to become a "people's democracy" after the war than an SSR.
The Soviet Transcaucasus military district had about 246,000 men in 16 divisions with 877 tanks, and 1,417 artillery pieces. That's a very well armed army by Balkan standards. Now there is an obvious question how collaboration and anti-Soviet revolts in 1941-42 are affected if Turkey joins one way or the other the war against the Soviets...
Turkey is going to have the Soviet Union as a benefactor no matter what, we can only speculate about how much influence the USSR has. I’d think Armenia would expand in size though due to the Turks failing to do anything they wanted. I don’t know much much of Anatolia will be Greek territory after this, but I think Italian Anatolia (which got re-annexed back to Turkey a few years back) may go to the Greeks at least and the Hellespont may also go to the Greeks. I’m not sure about Constantinople though. Personally, one of the big things that will make Turkey deviate from otl is that I think Turkey would act more like the rest of the Middle Eastern States except for Israel: autocratic and unstable.
On the topic of WWII, Greece will be secure in the near future, which is great for the allied powers. Greece would allow for the invasion of Italy and its occupied regions, and ittl stopping Turkey would be needed before pushing into the Balkans as I think the USSR wouldn’t like having to fight in the Caucasus.
PS: would Greece successfully claim North Thrace from Bulgaria? Greece should have more clout ittl.
And the real question is whether it would be a Turkish SSR or a "people's democracy".
A combined option is to take a huge chunk out of Eastern Anatolia and render it part of Armenian and/or Kurdish SSRs all the way onto the Med and leave the rest a people’s republic.
It's rather doubtful that the USSR will be a in position to occupy a stretch all the way to the Med before the allies. The Soviets aren't going to be able to dictate that sort of concession when the boots on the ground in most of Turkey are probably not going to be theirs.
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I think Armenia is going to expand with Kurdistan and Assyria being created as punishment against the Turks. The USSR is going to swoop in and make them SSRs later.
like eastern Anatolia won’t be part of Turkey and would be pushed to the Taurus and the Pontic mountains. They won’t have a border with Iran.
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Oh I’m not stating that they aren’t well armed. Just that if they’re busy in Turkey they aren’t in the Southern Ukraine helping to stop or push back the Germans, and troops and equipment to do so will have to come from somewhere else that needs them. I don’t think it will break the Soviets but it could definitely allow the Germans to push further and for longer into Russia. Which would mean the Allies would have an extra time to push the iron curtain back further. Turkey entering the war against the USSR ironically helps Western Europe the most long term.
Less of the Balkans will be part of the Iron curtain, so the Balkans and Eastern Europe should have less communist countries, which is always a good thing. I think Turkey will be partitioned further though. What’s happening in China? Who will win the civil war at the end?
Minor caveat since I may have taken a look or two at Soviet force dispositions. If forces from the Transcaucasus are busy in Turkey they aren't in... Iran.
I think Turkey will be quite worried when learning of the German intentions of attacking Soviet Union because that put them in the first line of combat against the bigger of their traditional enemies.
I bet they will think it wasn't a good idea after all to attack Greece.
I bet they will think it wasn't a good idea after all to attack Greece.
Possibly... then Peker is in power with support from the CUP and even in OTL the ex CUP were very anti-Soviet to put it mildly. Take Nuri pasha for example. Panturkism/panturanism is going rather strong.
Turkey is fucked no matter what. Like, all parties will want to take land from Turkey for their own purposes: the Soviet Union will want to take Turkey for consessions in the Balkans (with Greece gaining a lot of prestige they will want to claim North Thrace and southern Albania. Consessions with Yugoslavia may also occur) while Britain and the US will use Greece's further expansion into Anatolia as a way to increase control over the Black sea.
Turkey in ittl would be much more like the rest of the Middle East I think.
On the topic of population transfers and Panturkism, will Turkey be a dumping ground for Soviet dissidents? Like I'm sure other Turkic groups will get to Turkey even if they're not an SSR as they have to be subservient to the USSR (they'll kill themselves before being allies with the Greeks). I'd think they would get groups such as the Crimean Tartars off Crimea and muddy the waters in Turkey.
Turkey in ittl would be much more like the rest of the Middle East I think.
I was more thinking of their involvement in battle for the Kerch Peninsula when they were briefly renamed the Caucasus Front. Then they split half their strength to form the Crimean Front who mostly went on to die on the peninsula. Of course nothing says the Soviets decide to participate in that particular mess in TTL. But if they do those casualties have to be soaked up by different Soviets if the OTL ones are in Turkey
Part 75
Iraq, May 13th, 1941
The Turkish VII Corps marched into Kirkuk. No opposition had been encountered so far, the Iraqi army was allied, the Kurdish tribes mostly indifferent and the Assyrians lacked arms and organization to act. Fighting between the Iraqis and the British was ongoing further south while the Soviet Union had officially recognized the government of Rashid Ali the previous day.
North Africa, May 16th, 1941
Half a dozen British tanks lay burning at El Agheila. The first, limited, British counteroffensive in the Western Desert had ended in failure within 48 hours. XIII Corps under Lt general Philip Neame start preparing for the next try.
Ethiopia, May 18th, 1941
The last remnants of the Italian army in East Africa, under the Duke of Aosta surrendered to Allied forces. Already French and British troops from East Africa were being moved to Egypt and the Middle East to reinforce Allied forces there.
Fallujah, Iraq, May 20th, 1941
British forces from Habbaniya, had not bothered waiting for the French army advancing down the Euphrates nor for their own comrades and the Arab Legion advancing from Jordan to march out against Baghdad. Iraqi forces at Fallujah had surrendered on the 19th after mostly token resistance. Any thoughts of further advance abruptly ended though at the sight of over two hundred German Ju-52 coming over Fallujah. By midday the RAF troops and the Assyrian rifles had been pushed out of Fallujah by the fallschirmjägers. But it was just the beginning of the battle of Fallujah. By the 22nd French and British troops would enter the battle. But so would the rest of the 7th Flieger division and the Turkish army...
Bergen, Norway, May 20st, 1941
Bismarck, Tirpitz, Gneisenau and Prinz Eugen left Grimstadfjord for the Atlantic. It was the first major sortie of the Kriegsmarine since the invasion of Norway the year before. But if the Germans hoped to achieve surprise luck was not on their side. Signal intercepts had already given out the sortie. The British cruisers patrolling between Greenland and the British islands were being joined by HMS King George V and Hood and the French Richelieu, Strasbourg and Algerie while the Royal Navy's Home Fleet with Rodney and Prince of Wales was about to sail.
Denmark Strait, May 22nd, 1941
The German squadron had been sighted by HMS Manchester the previous day, Gneisenau had opened fire at her but had failed to get any hits. At dawn the British and French battleships at sea had intercepted the Germans and admiral Lutjens had been forced to accept battle. The engagement had not start well for the allies. Strasbourg, hit by several 380mm shells early in the battle had been crippled and sunk. Hood nearly had the same fate, post battle analysis would determine that without her modernization before the war she could well had been sunk by Gneisenau's fire. But her armour held and her return fire had
knocked out two of Gneisenau's turrets forcing her to flee. Tirpitz engaged by King George V hadn't fared much better being hit several times but had managed to break contact and escape. Bismarck and Prinz Eugen had not been so lucky. Prinz Eugen engaged by Algerie, HMS Southampton and HMS Manchester and the large destroyers Mogador and Volta had been sunk. Bismarck locked into a duel with Richelieu had been turned into a floating wreck by the French ship's 16in guns but had still remained afloat even after the two British batteships had also turned their fire on the crippled ship. In the end Lacroix had ordered his destroyers to finish her of by torpedoes but her destruction had at least given Tirpitz and Gneisenau the time to escape.
Teheran, May 25th, 1941
The past ten years had been frustrating ones for Abdolhossein Teymourtash. A loyal supporter of president Reza Pahlavi, he had nevertheless found himself under a cloud as the increasingly erratic and dictatorial Pahlavi had start to fear his erstwhile ally and become jealous of him. First Pahlavi had sidelined Teymourtash in the dispute with the British over Iranian oil revenues signing a compromise agreement with Britain, worse tha the one Teymourtash had hoped to achieve. Then he had been dismissed from his position as prime minister and sent as ambassador to Britain, a polite way of removing himself from politics. Then he had been replaced as ambassador and informally informed that it would be best for his continued health to avoid returning to Iran, he had taken the hint and remained in Britain instead, returning to Iran only last summer. Now with war at Iran's doorstep to president was again turning to him for advice but was failing to actually implement any of it. Perhaps after all it ad been a good thing that Reza had been dissuaded from becoming shah all these years ago. A president is replaced much more easily than a king if needed...
Basra, Iraq, May 27th, 1941
Two brigades of the 10th Indian division under William Slim begun advancing north. The division's third brigade was due to arive in the next few days but Slim could not afford to wait. Battle was raging at Fallujah and by now it looked as if the fall of Habbaniya to the enemy was just a matter of days. Wavell had already committed the 7th Australian division as well to the fighting in Iraq but it would be some time before it actually reached the frontlines...
Eleusis, May 30th, 1941
The pilots of the HAF 21st fighter squadron had a collective sigh of relief when the Luftwaffe failed to appear. After 17 days of fighing the Germans and Italians had been thrown back once more at Thermopylae and now the Luftwaffe was apparently starting to pull out for the Balkans for some reason. Which was fortunate, the HAF was down to 106 aircraft by now having lost 400 aircraft to all causes from the start of the war and the other allies weren't much better off, the Yugoslavs were down to 31 aircraft and the French expeditionary force in the Balkans to a dozen.
The Turkish VII Corps marched into Kirkuk. No opposition had been encountered so far, the Iraqi army was allied, the Kurdish tribes mostly indifferent and the Assyrians lacked arms and organization to act. Fighting between the Iraqis and the British was ongoing further south while the Soviet Union had officially recognized the government of Rashid Ali the previous day.
North Africa, May 16th, 1941
Half a dozen British tanks lay burning at El Agheila. The first, limited, British counteroffensive in the Western Desert had ended in failure within 48 hours. XIII Corps under Lt general Philip Neame start preparing for the next try.
Ethiopia, May 18th, 1941
The last remnants of the Italian army in East Africa, under the Duke of Aosta surrendered to Allied forces. Already French and British troops from East Africa were being moved to Egypt and the Middle East to reinforce Allied forces there.
Fallujah, Iraq, May 20th, 1941
British forces from Habbaniya, had not bothered waiting for the French army advancing down the Euphrates nor for their own comrades and the Arab Legion advancing from Jordan to march out against Baghdad. Iraqi forces at Fallujah had surrendered on the 19th after mostly token resistance. Any thoughts of further advance abruptly ended though at the sight of over two hundred German Ju-52 coming over Fallujah. By midday the RAF troops and the Assyrian rifles had been pushed out of Fallujah by the fallschirmjägers. But it was just the beginning of the battle of Fallujah. By the 22nd French and British troops would enter the battle. But so would the rest of the 7th Flieger division and the Turkish army...
Bergen, Norway, May 20st, 1941
Bismarck, Tirpitz, Gneisenau and Prinz Eugen left Grimstadfjord for the Atlantic. It was the first major sortie of the Kriegsmarine since the invasion of Norway the year before. But if the Germans hoped to achieve surprise luck was not on their side. Signal intercepts had already given out the sortie. The British cruisers patrolling between Greenland and the British islands were being joined by HMS King George V and Hood and the French Richelieu, Strasbourg and Algerie while the Royal Navy's Home Fleet with Rodney and Prince of Wales was about to sail.
Denmark Strait, May 22nd, 1941
The German squadron had been sighted by HMS Manchester the previous day, Gneisenau had opened fire at her but had failed to get any hits. At dawn the British and French battleships at sea had intercepted the Germans and admiral Lutjens had been forced to accept battle. The engagement had not start well for the allies. Strasbourg, hit by several 380mm shells early in the battle had been crippled and sunk. Hood nearly had the same fate, post battle analysis would determine that without her modernization before the war she could well had been sunk by Gneisenau's fire. But her armour held and her return fire had
knocked out two of Gneisenau's turrets forcing her to flee. Tirpitz engaged by King George V hadn't fared much better being hit several times but had managed to break contact and escape. Bismarck and Prinz Eugen had not been so lucky. Prinz Eugen engaged by Algerie, HMS Southampton and HMS Manchester and the large destroyers Mogador and Volta had been sunk. Bismarck locked into a duel with Richelieu had been turned into a floating wreck by the French ship's 16in guns but had still remained afloat even after the two British batteships had also turned their fire on the crippled ship. In the end Lacroix had ordered his destroyers to finish her of by torpedoes but her destruction had at least given Tirpitz and Gneisenau the time to escape.
Teheran, May 25th, 1941
The past ten years had been frustrating ones for Abdolhossein Teymourtash. A loyal supporter of president Reza Pahlavi, he had nevertheless found himself under a cloud as the increasingly erratic and dictatorial Pahlavi had start to fear his erstwhile ally and become jealous of him. First Pahlavi had sidelined Teymourtash in the dispute with the British over Iranian oil revenues signing a compromise agreement with Britain, worse tha the one Teymourtash had hoped to achieve. Then he had been dismissed from his position as prime minister and sent as ambassador to Britain, a polite way of removing himself from politics. Then he had been replaced as ambassador and informally informed that it would be best for his continued health to avoid returning to Iran, he had taken the hint and remained in Britain instead, returning to Iran only last summer. Now with war at Iran's doorstep to president was again turning to him for advice but was failing to actually implement any of it. Perhaps after all it ad been a good thing that Reza had been dissuaded from becoming shah all these years ago. A president is replaced much more easily than a king if needed...
Basra, Iraq, May 27th, 1941
Two brigades of the 10th Indian division under William Slim begun advancing north. The division's third brigade was due to arive in the next few days but Slim could not afford to wait. Battle was raging at Fallujah and by now it looked as if the fall of Habbaniya to the enemy was just a matter of days. Wavell had already committed the 7th Australian division as well to the fighting in Iraq but it would be some time before it actually reached the frontlines...
Eleusis, May 30th, 1941
The pilots of the HAF 21st fighter squadron had a collective sigh of relief when the Luftwaffe failed to appear. After 17 days of fighing the Germans and Italians had been thrown back once more at Thermopylae and now the Luftwaffe was apparently starting to pull out for the Balkans for some reason. Which was fortunate, the HAF was down to 106 aircraft by now having lost 400 aircraft to all causes from the start of the war and the other allies weren't much better off, the Yugoslavs were down to 31 aircraft and the French expeditionary force in the Balkans to a dozen.
I really do hope that the Assyrians get their own state (espicially when the Brits get to the north of Iraq) since otl was terrible for the Assyrians. It's also interesting to see an Assyrian state, even if they exist due to the USSR (and if Armenia becomes bigger and holds trebizond they can ensure Assyria's existence after the USSR collapses).
Greece looks like it's going to survive the Axis powers which will be very interesting. Germany will have learnt a bit about fighting against dogged defenders so they will do slightly better in Baborossa while the USSR will have to spend a lot more time in the middle East due to Iran and Turkey being belligerents, so the USSR should need more time before they can push the Germans back. Maybe the Germans take Stalingrad but fail to take Moscow? Or maybe they fight in Stalingrad longer?
PS: Are there Armenian political figures in Greece at this time otl/ittl?
Greece looks like it's going to survive the Axis powers which will be very interesting. Germany will have learnt a bit about fighting against dogged defenders so they will do slightly better in Baborossa while the USSR will have to spend a lot more time in the middle East due to Iran and Turkey being belligerents, so the USSR should need more time before they can push the Germans back. Maybe the Germans take Stalingrad but fail to take Moscow? Or maybe they fight in Stalingrad longer?
PS: Are there Armenian political figures in Greece at this time otl/ittl?
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