If the German panzers cannot beat a retreating Allied army, what chances do the Italian have against a dug in allied lines?
This is going to turn into another Isonozo,13 battles at Thermopylae here we come.
To be fair to the Germans they broke through two fortified lines on bad terrain and advanced nearly 400 km on bad terrain in the face of determined opposition while being supplied by a single track railroad and a few roads varying from mediocre to muddy tracks, that get sabotaged on top of it. That they then fail to break through a third line and even more mountains at least without bringing in more troops that they'd need against the Soviets...
Greece not being evicted from either the Balkans or Anatolia is a PR golden goose. Turkey is overextending, soon enough attrition is going to whittle away at their local air superiority.
The standard problem of all Axis powers throughout the war. But in propaganda terms, allied propagandists don't even need to try hard. I mean they just got an Axis attack stopped from all places at Thermopylae. How difficult it is to take advantage when you are handed something like this on a platter?
I do wonder how much the Turkish economy can be pushed, I don't see them easily or quickly replacing any equipment losses as they push into Iraq. What's going on with the Kurds and Assyrians by this point by the way? Facing revolts and fighting off the allies at the same time wouldn't be a great time while also besieging Smyrna and occupying Greek territory.
Effectively no Assyrians left in Turkey by this point. The Turkish army in Iraq and the Free French are both marching straight into the Assyrian triangle at the moment. The Assyrian rifles in Iraq are of course on the British side. The Kurds are more complicated. Just like OTL the Turks have smashed up multiple Kurdish uprisings so far. Unlike OTL the French have created a Kurdish statelet of their own in Syria and the sultan and caliph is still Turkish head of state even though for all practical reasons a figure head.
Hopefully the Greek's can integrate those tanks quickly enough, not sure two days are enough time for them to be usable at Thermopylae. But would certainly help afterwards if they can hold, especially if they push back while Germany is busy in Russia. Maybe back up to the Olympus range?
What's going on in the State's by the way, the lend lease shipments ought to be coming soon right?
Lend Lease has officially been passed and enacted. The first shipment for Greece 115 artillery pieces is on its way while HAF has already received a shipment of 30 P-40s late in April. Which given the levels of attrition it has suffered so far is a good thing...
Also it seems Hess is delusional in two timelines. Maybe Stalin will chill a little without worrying about Hess dealing with Britain? Nah....
Don't see any reason why Hess would be any less delusional just on account of the Greeks having done better. But think of the positive aspects... the allied governments won't need to keep paying for Spandau for a couple decades more! Now the combined effects of Goering not being a drug addict and Walther Wever surviving may be more interesting... if they do not cancel each other out with the gains from Wever cancelled out by Goering doing even more active empire building and vice versa...
So in effect smyrna is now the largest greek city right now,
Athens-Piraeus has 700,000 with a further 169,000 in the rest of Attica. Now if you count the refugees in Smyrna...
with the italians taking over the battle of thermopylae I forsee that the the italians are going the have heavy losses both in the men and equipment and maybe the will be no Italian involvement in ttl Barbarossa.
Now when the germans attack the soviets the allies with have the chance to gain air superiority in the Aegean making possible the removal the women and children away from smyrna with the most likely destination being crete,this should improve the supply situation in smyrna making possible the arrival of greek and allied troops to attack the turks and open the straits open to allied ships.
And lastly a quick question has glaucos clerides joined the RAF or has he volunteered of the HAF instead?
What he should do? Logically he's in Britain studying in 1939 from which it follows that he would volunteer in 1939 for the RAF. But the TTL HAF needs way more aircrews than OTL and people like Clerides, or John Plagis volunteering for transfer to Greece makes a fair degree of sense...
The Indian Army can concentrate a decent-sized force in Iraq. If I remember correctly, there were 5 indian brigades during the OTL Anglo-Iraqi War, with a second wave of another 4 brigades that either participated in summer 1941 at the invasion of Iran or became lines of communication troops. I guess a certain general Slim takes control of the Indian Army in Basra. And Bill Slim is no Townshend, the opposite rather.
The turkish corps is marching aye, but it is marching towards desctruction and interment.
For now it is marching into a headlong meeting engagement with the Free French in what is mostly Assyrian land...
So the high tide of Rommel's attack stops at El Agheila. From now on, the Commonwealth can establish a significant material superiority over the Axis and Malta is receiving aircraft by way of Araxos and Benghazi.
The Commonwealth in OTL lost every single tank they had running at the start of Rommel's attack. Here they still have an armoured brigades worth of tanks running to which are added the tanks of the alt-Tiger convoy. And as shown by none other than Rommel himself the El-Agheila position O'Connor currently holds is pretty good to defend...
That is 300 aircraft lost or in the shop. Not bad, not bad at all.
Some aircraft had been already redeployed to Romania and Poland. But for a tidbit... that might be somewhat altered...
1. Aircraft losses September 20, 1940 - February 17, 1941
Italian: 322
Hungarian: 89
Bulgarian: 70
British: 32
French: 15
Greek: 78
Yugoslav: 378
2. Aircraft losses February 18, 1941 - April 20, 1941
German: 187
Italian: 147
Bulgarian: 20
Turkish: 48
British: 146
French: 75
Greek: 215
Yugoslav: 132
Now keeping proper track of the Regia Aeronautica between April 1941 and the 1943 armistice in the Balkans is a bit of an issue as is keeping track of Italian aircraft losses throughout the war. RA start out with 3,269 aircraft, built or bought after June 40 roughly 9000, lost 5,272 and ended up with 1,734. There are over 5,000 missing here presumably retired for one reason or another.
So at least half the civilian population is left behind. This is bad news to say the least.
Not everyone would try or manage to flee. After all the local Greeks and Circassians have experienced TTL 1914-21 but NOT 1922. Aside from the Pontic Greeks and the Armenians resettled there of course but more on that later...
The problem is that Chios cannot support many refugees over an extended period of time. The cultivated land in the island was comprised mostly of lemon, mandarine, orange, olive and mastic trees. While olive oil adds valuable fats to the diet, what was severely lacking was grain. So relocating people there is rather a short term solution.
The same applies to Lesvos but to a lower degree. Lesvos had an abundance of olive oil but was lacking in grain and pulses. The locals can be fed, but not any large group of refugees.
That's true but at least they are not constantly being bombed like Smyrna. If Greece south of Thermopylae actually manages to survive then a logical move would be using the Smyrna convoys to move civilians to European Greece on the return leg of their trips from Smyrna.
And Katsotas lives to fight another day. I think he will be promoted to command a division very soon.
And Tsakalotos lives to fight another day. Katsotas might show up, they were friends with my grandpa, but that's a different matter.
So more pilots and base personnel in RAF Habbaniyah compared to OTL. They might as well survive the siege until they are relieved.
Not really. There were Greek pilots training at Habbaniya also in OTL, some flew in the raids others commanded artillery pieces against the Iraqis
I see Sholto Douglas and Leigh Mallory are not releasing any Spitfires for the Mediterranean Theatre as in OTL. Perhaps political pressure from the still fighting Greece might result in Spitfires somewhat earlier than OTL.
Possibly... till then Pulawski's birds are the best allied fighter available in the Mediterranean.
So, 20 infantry divisions and 1 panzer division supplied by a single rail line. Good luck Benny, you will need it.
German 12th army: 1 Panzer, 2 Gebirgs, 5 Infantry divisions. The Panzer is below 60% strength...
Italian 2nd army: 2 armoured, 3 Celere, 3 Alpini, 7 Infantry divisions
25 divisions at lest on paper available aside from the ones in Epirus.
Wow yes! This is a very serious problem and it needs fixing before the winter arrives, especially the 1941-1942 winter which was colder than most and it had a big impact in OTL occupied Greece.
This does not even count that the main wheat producing areas of Greece have all been occupied as of this moment. So unoccupied Greece, assuming it remains unoccupied will be needed large scale imports of foodstuffs to survive. That PR the Greeks are gaining in the United States and elsewhere... they will very likely need it to avoid seeing feeding their population relegated behind two dozen more other allied shipping priorities. Of course that the Greeks do have one of the world's largest merchant marines doesn't hurt either...
The Turks are being opportunistic here and it makes sense. They have more men that they can't throw at Smyrna in any meaningful way so why not break the Allies around you since you have local superiority. Now if the Germans and Italians have sparred enough material to properly equip them all this time then they will be a formidable foe, as mentioned they have decent generals as well and high spirits due to jihad being proclaimed and their have cornered the hated Greeks. This front will make or break them.
"Properly equip" is a big discussion. If the WW2 Germans weren't well WW2 Germans, their industry should more than suffice to properly equip all Axis armies, while they also got their allies locally producing up to date stuff.
I think those Centaur tanks and the Hurricanes are the first shipment of lend lease to Greece, while the rest went to Alexandria.
They are British aid reaching Greece...
The British holding Cyrenaica longer will be a boost to their logistics though I doubt they can hold for a long time. They still haven't found a way to counter Rommel and to to that they need more battles and more casualties.
It depends. Brevity involved 53 British tanks, even without the reinforcements have two to three times as many available. By the time of Battle Axe if nothing else has changed they should have about 50% more tanks at least.
I think the Germans are much more interested in taking Gibraltar ???
General Ochoa may have something to say about it...