Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Lascaris]

Looks like my intuition that Codreanu would be a Romanian version of Szalasi with the Iron Guard filling the role of the Arrow Cross/Government of National Unity in Hungary ITTL was right.

That Codreanu would attempt something of the short, being around was... well plausible. Now the short to long term effects are a different matter.

Is this a typo or did the UN form a year earlier and I don’t remember it at all? I’m assuming this is the United States or United Kingdom? Either way I have a sneaking suspicion that that Soviet flotilla is gonna be rerouting from Constantinople to Romania when that’s announced. At least I hope so. It would he nice to see the Wallies smarten up about such things after the last time, and I could see the Bulgarians wanting to keep the Soviets out like the Turks wanted to keep the Greeks out.

Minor technical point. The Soviets are sitting at Uskudar at the moment. On average that's less than 1.5km across to the European side. If the plan is a naval assault on Constantinople... what you really need is comrade Gorshkov's Danube flottila and a lot of artillery on the land side... what the Turks did in 1941 TTL. A heavy cruiser and a destroyer flotilla indicates a target somewhere on the Black Sea coast not inside the straits. Like... Kumkoy for example.

The Bulgarians pretty much delivering Constantinople to the Soviets wont do them any favors when time comes for receiving terms from the WAllies that are a few hours outside of Sofia by now .

A few hours may be an exaggeration. The outskirts of Sofia are within range of Greek artillery. At least the M1 Long Tom they Americans have kindly provided as part of Lend Lease.

I wasn’t trying to say that was the Bulgarians plan, my mistake if it came across that way. I think the Soviets were going to attempt a naval invasion on the city, hence the timing of the declaration of war and the loaning of the Turkish ships. I think that the Bulgarians are going to foil it with this armistice and quick WAllied movement to prevent a repeat of the Turkish situation. I’d kinda find it hilarious for the Soviets to show up expecting the city to surrender to them only for some kid from the Greek resistance telling them to go be useful somewhere else, they’ve already got things here under control. The only people I can see disagreeing with that are the Turks who joined up with the Germans instead of surrendering.

The "Ataturk" division is getting mauled at the moment by French colonial troops somewhere to the north of Skopje so that's not much of an issue...

And if they’re still even there, which considering the Germans more or less pulled out with the Romanians a month or two ago is unlikely, I find it very unlikely the Bulgarians stationed there let them do anything before they hand everything over to the Wallies.

East Thrace and Constantinople were annexed by Bulgaria, a way for the Germans to try to keep Bulgaria sweet, and left to the Bulgarians own devices to defend. Which for the Bulgarian soldiers assigned there was something of a plum assignment... as long as one does not fall in the hands of Greek or Pomak guerillas. If he does, well bad things tend to happen given the treatment of the civilian population during the occupation.

There is the other option in all this. We’re assuming that the Yugoslavian government/ the Serbs are going to win this hypothetical civil conflict. And we’re trying to come up with way for them to do that and what the results might be. If they can’t come to some accord with the southern minority groups though, they could very well lose the civil war. To be honest I think that might be the most likely outcome. The Southern minority’s resist their persecution and ally with what remains of the collaborationist/nationalist forces. The communist nationalists rise up in the north. Serbian communist and liberals rise up against the royal government who hasn’t learned to compromise in their exile.

Let me note that the Serb liberals are the ones dominating the government in exile. That you are a liberal in this day and era does not mean you are not a nationalist. Quite the contrary...

The United Nations was the official name of the Allies before it transitioned into the organization as we know it today.

As for the rest of the update, obvious is obvious and as others have said the fleet is most likely going to Constantinople and Bulgaria's surrender threw a massive wrench in the plan (and the Turkish SS units others have mentioned are probably elsewhere since Sofia would have had both time and reasons to get them sent elsewhere). I do, however, disagree with the notion they'll get redirected to Romania, as the straits are just too important for the Kremlin...

I do think the Soviets might have become a bit cockie in assuming it would all work out as it did in Uskandhar. Unlike the Turks the Bulgarians would not have let them waltz in, amphibious operations are not a joke (and the Soviets don't have a ton of resources to do it either), you had other Bulgarian troops in the vicinity and a landing near the old city would have most likely triggered an uprising from the Greek resistance in the city, which would have lead to an ''interesting'' situation between the two forces in the city had the Soviet landing been successful...

The Bulgarian troops would tend at least in the rank and file to feel more friendly to their Russian brethren than the Greeks. Now that does not necessarily mean much but without orders it's hardly a given that a Bulgarian officer that had to choose between Soviets or Greeks would not jump on the side of the Soviets instead of the second traditional enemy...

As it is, I can see two plausible scenarios: either, as others have guessed, the Soviets are met by a resistance firmly in charge of the city or they come in time and, either with or without previous fighting depending on the exact timing, we are in the ''interesting'' scenario outlined above, with the added bonus of both side competing with little subtlety for getting uber local surrenders over every single block in the city...

There was also some douzy on the Western Front, starting with Joe Kennedy Jr. surviving its ITTL version of his OTL

Well how likely was it for his bomb, sorry aircraft, to blow up in flight. His was the only one to do so IMS so statistics are on Joe's side. Now this may have unintended consequences mid to long term...

death and, far more immediately, Falaise being set to be an even more massive WAllied victory then in OTL and Spain joining the war. Overall that will probably increase the WAllies' edge on schedule compared to OTL even further and if Ochoa is this preoccupied with being in the West's good graces odds he will allow Spain to transition back to democracy, which is obviously good.

Ochoa was a liberal... even though he ended up leading the Nationalists TTL, in this he's not unlike Pangalos in OTL Greece. His agreement with his former enemies when the Falangists at German instigation restarted the civil war and a provisional government established was elections 6 months after the end of the civil war. That got delayed with the provisional government and the communists happily humming along... well now we see the reason why.

Huh. TIL. I consider myself decently knowledgeable on WW2 and never knew that. Thanks for telling me.



Unless the Soviets are already at the city when the announcement is made I can’t see them taking it before the resistance takes over. And after the Turkish surrender shenanigans they pulled I can’t see them letting the Russians in. Because I can’t see the Greeks not preparing for them to pull that crap again and telling all the local resistances how to play such a situation. Maybe they land as close by as they can but I’m not sure they can get a landing off anywhere before some Greeks show up and tell them everything is fine and to shove off. I can’t see even the Americans finding that objectionable.

Now in the city you have both Greek Army of the Interion and People's Army resistance units... are you certain comrade Makedon would be finding the presence of allied Soviet troops objectionable?

I’m not convinced he did this purely to stay in the good graces of the west. While there’s very little cost to joining the obvious winning side and not being on the outs with the Wallies is nice, is that enough to get you to force your country to join the third war it’s been a part of in a decade? Alone I’m not sure it is. I can’t see the British ever giving up Gibraltar, but I could see the Spanish getting the Tangiers international zone added to their protectorate. It just might not have been announced yet.

Does payback for starting a war by proxy against his country and hunting down the Falangists the Germans have given shelter to count a good additional incentive? Gibraltar... there is no change Britain even discuss this at this stage of the war...

I do think that Spain is destined to be a founding member of NATO at this point though. It’s interesting how much larger the organization is likely to be upon founding ITTL.

If it is founded how much larger is ot likely to be? Greece is likely a founding member. Turkey is out, the British had misgivings about it joining in OTL. TTL forget about it. Sweden, if bad things happen to Finland is not unlikely to joint. Spain is a likely candidate. Yugoslavia very much depends on its post-war situation.

View attachment 877932
Here's a neat poster circa 1943, fyi that's meant to be Belgium rather than Romania in the center, the color has gone a bit weird in digital. Also I think Greece's flag is still the blue/white cross ttl.

The blue white cross is not nor was it ever the national flag. It had been the state flag and was and remains the army regimental colours as well (with St George in the center of the cross).

I think there's a possibility that the Greeks will push towards Constantinople themselves with their own armies while the Greek Resistance holds up against the Soviets, since I'd think the Bulgars would allow the Greeks to move in, as they have already unconditionally surrendered to both the Americans and the Soviets.

They are pushing east as fast as they can in the face of Bulgarian resistence. At the time of the armistice their easternmost elements are nearing Alexandroupolis. Which puts them about 340km from Constantinople. The resistance... remember at this point you have Greeks, moth communists and non-communists, Armenians, even Turkish stay-behind groups...

I do think Constantinople could be Western-controlled if the Americans allow the Greeks to move into the City ASAP.

Ochoa is a radical republican, I think he'll act to bring back democracy just bc of that, and he has been ruling for quite a while now. Joe Kennedy surviving is quite interesting too, and if he becomes an American president ittl it'd be quite interesting.

Joe if he survives to 1945 is quite likely to be getting the political mantle of the family. Does that automatically mean he becomes US president? It likely makes him potential candidate for president but that's different...

Onto other things, Serbia is basically going to be under monarchical control, while Rommel leaves for Germany (and probably suffers a similar fate than otl I wager. Unfortunate.), and I wonder would we see a neutral Bulgaria and a Communist Romania, since the Bulgarians definitely won't trust the Greeks and Americans and Brits I think, and would be quite close to the Soviets. I think it is a possibility that could happen, and I'm surprised that so little ppl have suggested it.

Certainly there is a LOT of bad blood between Greeks and Bulgarians, Sebs and Bulgarians too for that matter. Getting Bulgaria into alt-NATO if it exists would not be the easiest of sells even inside Bulgaria where there has always been a strong pro-Russian element couples with a very strong communist part in the interwar...

Oh god I could just see that happening. The invasion force being told to go radio silent for maximum stealth. They don’t know the Bulgarians surrendered. The go in gun blazing trying to make a naval landing work. The Greek resistance and the Bulgarians fight it off. The Greek upper command freaking out because they think the Soviets are invading. It would be a comedy of errors but I can easily imagine that disaster.

The reserve signals officer in me would note going radio silent means you are not emitting yourself. Not that you are not eavesdropping on others.

As for Poland keeping some more of its prewar land because of a more physically eastern GDR, it’s certainly possible. I could also see the Soviets telling the Poles that it’s tough all over and to suck it up. The territory given to the Lithuanians might be the most likely outside of East Prussia and what Curzon line B covers. After all the Soviets don’t particularly like the Lithuanian as opposed to the Belarusians and Ukrainians.

I'm sympathetic to Curzon B myself but I'm open to reasonable arguments for or against. We are still in 1944 not very many things in the final peace settlement are cast in stone.

Take... Constantinople for example. The Soviets have every reason to hold fast on the Asiatic side and they will, come hell or high water. The European side now, if they cannot avoid its control by western troops does it matter to them much how the west rules it beyond scoring diplomatic/propaganda points?

Why would everybody assume there will be GDR? Stalin had no definite plans for Germany. Or Eastern Europe. What Stalin generally wanted (circa the end of war) was broadening Soviet zone of influence, a warm-water port, and 6 billion US loan to reconstruct Soviet economy. He was not counting on Cold War starting because of inflated Red Scare.

Countries do have that tendency to get paranoid when they find out that you have penetrated their most secret war project to a laughable degree with the implications on what this might mean on other parts of government. And the cold war did not start on account of the Red Scare.

Considering how penetrated the Manhattan Project was you can call the Red Scare a lot of things but inflated isn't one of them. McCarthy was a bullshitter but there were a lot of Soviet agents in sensitive locations in the US (and Britain).

Somehow no country ever took well to the concept of getting thoroughly penetrated by the security services of another...

In OTL the retreat was sounded on August 17, and I suppose the same is possible ITTL, but the last update does give the sense that the Germans are very much still ''not there'' in term of ordering the retreat so the WAllies will probably get a few precious extra days to close the trap.

Or not. Model after all played the same games OTL as well. Now there is a difference that could affect things further down the line... Monty is leading the 14th army in Burma at the moment.

That was the primary aim of Soviet espionage but

a. It's not unreasonable that the US would want to obtain a monopoly, any more than the Soviet's would want to break it
b. The fact that the Soviet's were able to obtain so much information, so quickly, leading to going from essentially no nuclear program to a working bomb in 4 years says everything about how penetrated the US was and American unease about that was totally reasonable and sensible, imagine how Stalin would have reacted were the situations reversed, the death toll would have been measured in the millions.

No nuclear program is overstating things. The Sovies had a program underway since 1942 and were delving into the idea since at least 1940..

I could definitely see this happening, plus the greek army barreling towards Constantinople things would be even more interesting... Ittl the first shots of the Cold war might very well be shot in Constantinople.

The Greeks would be... ill advised to start a fight with Soviet troops. Not that if the Soviets start a fight they won't fight back.

Tbf I agree, especially if the Soviets don't manage to get to Germany beyond Silesia and Pomerania. Yalta would be very different if things were like this. There's no way the WAllies would give Pomernia to the Soviets if they want it to be part of Germany while the Soviets want it to be part of Poland.

Why the West wants a single Germany? Roosevelt was talking about 5 states and both Churchill and Stalin were talking aout an independent Bavaria among other things.

A tighter Falaise pocket definitely would be good for the WAllies and may allow them to march to Germany (they'd basically be in Northern Germany) a lot faster than otl. And if we see the Spanish march into Vichy France things would definitely be different too.

Vichy France got occupied quite a bit ago. But the Spanish add one more enemy in south-western France... not that this will matter all ltoo much given the likely speed of the German collapse in south France. But Spain joining the war also means opening Bilbao and Barcelona to Allied shipping and of course makes the life of German submarines even more difficult... as if it was not bad enough already by this time.

What does spain get in return joining the war?

Shaking of the taint of being aligned to the Axis and settling scores with Germany for that little mess it instigated back in 1941 another 200,000 military deaths seem good enough reasons...

I honestly hope that Bulgaria can manage to avoid being a Soviet puppet like OTL at this point

Bulgaria is under a non communist government, the communists do participate in it not unlike Italy... and has excellent reasons to avoid alienating the Soviets

 

[Whiteshore]

That Codreanu would attempt something of the short, being around was... well plausible. Now the short to long term effects are a different matter.

Especially as Romania would be going down fighting instead of going over to the Allies.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

What does spain get in return joining the war?

Revenge on Germany for instigating the Second Spanish Civil War; the cachet of being one of the Allies; a small amount of military prestige; very probably, wartime relief and postwar economic aid from the US.

What could the Allies do with over 400, 000 Spanish troops added to OVERLORD? OT1H, this would be a largely veteran force, and already equipped, I think. Given the participation of the revived Spanish Left, many of them would be quite motivated. OTOH their equipment would be incompatible, and the Allies were very short of supply for their own troops in summer/fall 1944.

Perhaps the Spanish could be allocated to the Franco-Italian front. They could also be assigned to clean up German holdouts on the Biscay coast (if any, ITTL).

 

[Quinkana]

They are pushing east as fast as they can in the face of Bulgarian resistence. At the time of the armistice their easternmost elements are nearing Alexandroupolis. Which puts them about 340km from Constantinople. The resistance... remember at this point you have Greeks, moth communists and non-communists, Armenians, even Turkish stay-behind groups...

I don't see the Greeks not trying anything like this with the Bulgarians going for unconditional surrender. The City is the ultimate prize for a long, long time, and with the army of Asia Minor probably in the Balkans rn they have the units to march through the Bulgarian-controlled regions, occupy it, and go straight for Constantinople. After all, an unconditional surrender entails your armies not attacking enemy armies marching wherever they want to go...

Ofc they wouldn't be fast enough if there are no resistance against the Soviets in the City, but even with a split resistance it should be enough of a cluster fuck for the Greeks to control bits of the City. A split city is better than no city at all, and I don't see the Greeks not trying it at all.

Why the West wants a single Germany? Roosevelt was talking about 5 states and both Churchill and Stalin were talking aout an independent Bavaria among other things.

An American Pomerania is plausible if we get bigger British and french occupation zones, hell they could give Bavaria to Greece (prob France). I just think the occupation zones could very much be changed compared to otl, especially if the Americans control more land than otl. Hell I think the Americans could attempt to make Pomerania independent at first considering how surrounded they are by the Soviets assuming that Pomerania is taken with Swedish or Danish support.

I'm sympathetic to Curzon B myself but I'm open to reasonable arguments for or against. We are still in 1944 not very many things in the final peace settlement are cast in stone.

Tbf if anything I think that we'd get the otl Curzon A line just bc we'd see the Soviets control Poland and the British and Americans really didn't care. Hell, if Churchill and Roosevelt fought for it it'd be bc they would want to trade it for something and for it to go so badly that getting the Curzon b line is the less bad option.

I hope we see a different Cold War ittl. if Chiang launched a limited offensive instead of going for everything at the same time I think he could've kept Southern China since the CCP attacked when he was exhausted post war. The Yugoslav and Korean wars should also be concurrent wars that would strain both American (and European) and Soviet capabilities, which would be very interesting, and make Greece come to its own in terms of foreign influence in Europe as America leans on their help while they focus on Korea instead.

 

[Whiteshore]

Ofc they wouldn't be fast enough if there are no resistance against the Soviets in the City, but even with a split resistance it should be enough of a cluster fuck for the Greeks to control bits of the City. A split city is better than no city at all, and I don't see the Greeks not trying it at all.

Especially as the straits do make a nice natural boundary between the Greek and Soviet zones, after all.

 

[Ramontxo]

That Codreanu would attempt something of the short, being around was... well plausible. Now the short to long term effects are a different matter.

Minor technical point. The Soviets are sitting at Uskudar at the moment. On average that's less than 1.5km across to the European side. If the plan is a naval assault on Constantinople... what you really need is comrade Gorshkov's Danube flottila and a lot of artillery on the land side... what the Turks did in 1941 TTL. A heavy cruiser and a destroyer flotilla indicates a target somewhere on the Black Sea coast not inside the straits. Like... Kumkoy for example.

A few hours may be an exaggeration. The outskirts of Sofia are within range of Greek artillery. At least the M1 Long Tom they Americans have kindly provided as part of Lend Lease.

The "Ataturk" division is getting mauled at the moment by French colonial troops somewhere to the north of Skopje so that's not much of an issue...

East Thrace and Constantinople were annexed by Bulgaria, a way for the Germans to try to keep Bulgaria sweet, and left to the Bulgarians own devices to defend. Which for the Bulgarian soldiers assigned there was something of a plum assignment... as long as one does not fall in the hands of Greek or Pomak guerillas. If he does, well bad things tend to happen given the treatment of the civilian population during the occupation.

Let me note that the Serb liberals are the ones dominating the government in exile. That you are a liberal in this day and era does not mean you are not a nationalist. Quite the contrary...


The Bulgarian troops would tend at least in the rank and file to feel more friendly to their Russian brethren than the Greeks. Now that does not necessarily mean much but without orders it's hardly a given that a Bulgarian officer that had to choose between Soviets or Greeks would not jump on the side of the Soviets instead of the second traditional enemy...

Well how likely was it for his bomb, sorry aircraft, to blow up in flight. His was the only one to do so IMS so statistics are on Joe's side. Now this may have unintended consequences mid to long term...

Ochoa was a liberal... even though he ended up leading the Nationalists TTL, in this he's not unlike Pangalos in OTL Greece. His agreement with his former enemies when the Falangists at German instigation restarted the civil war and a provisional government established was elections 6 months after the end of the civil war. That got delayed with the provisional government and the communists happily humming along... well now we see the reason why.

Now in the city you have both Greek Army of the Interion and People's Army resistance units... are you certain comrade Makedon would be finding the presence of allied Soviet troops objectionable?


Does payback for starting a war by proxy against his country and hunting down the Falangists the Germans have given shelter to count a good additional incentive? Gibraltar... there is no change Britain even discuss this at this stage of the war...


If it is founded how much larger is ot likely to be? Greece is likely a founding member. Turkey is out, the British had misgivings about it joining in OTL. TTL forget about it. Sweden, if bad things happen to Finland is not unlikely to joint. Spain is a likely candidate. Yugoslavia very much depends on its post-war situation.


The blue white cross is not nor was it ever the national flag. It had been the state flag and was and remains the army regimental colours as well (with St George in the center of the cross).


They are pushing east as fast as they can in the face of Bulgarian resistence. At the time of the armistice their easternmost elements are nearing Alexandroupolis. Which puts them about 340km from Constantinople. The resistance... remember at this point you have Greeks, moth communists and non-communists, Armenians, even Turkish stay-behind groups...

Joe if he survives to 1945 is quite likely to be getting the political mantle of the family. Does that automatically mean he becomes US president? It likely makes him potential candidate for president but that's different...

Certainly there is a LOT of bad blood between Greeks and Bulgarians, Sebs and Bulgarians too for that matter. Getting Bulgaria into alt-NATO if it exists would not be the easiest of sells even inside Bulgaria where there has always been a strong pro-Russian element couples with a very strong communist part in the interwar...

The reserve signals officer in me would note going radio silent means you are not emitting yourself. Not that you are not eavesdropping on others.

I'm sympathetic to Curzon B myself but I'm open to reasonable arguments for or against. We are still in 1944 not very many things in the final peace settlement are cast in stone.

Take... Constantinople for example. The Soviets have every reason to hold fast on the Asiatic side and they will, come hell or high water. The European side now, if they cannot avoid its control by western troops does it matter to them much how the west rules it beyond scoring diplomatic/propaganda points?


Countries do have that tendency to get paranoid when they find out that you have penetrated their most secret war project to a laughable degree with the implications on what this might mean on other parts of government. And the cold war did not start on account of the Red Scare.

Somehow no country ever took well to the concept of getting thoroughly penetrated by the security services of another...

Or not. Model after all played the same games OTL as well. Now there is a difference that could affect things further down the line... Monty is leading the 14th army in Burma at the moment.

No nuclear program is overstating things. The Sovies had a program underway since 1942 and were delving into the idea since at least 1940..

The Greeks would be... ill advised to start a fight with Soviet troops. Not that if the Soviets start a fight they won't fight back.

Why the West wants a single Germany? Roosevelt was talking about 5 states and both Churchill and Stalin were talking aout an independent Bavaria among other things.

Vichy France got occupied quite a bit ago. But the Spanish add one more enemy in south-western France... not that this will matter all ltoo much given the likely speed of the German collapse in south France. But Spain joining the war also means opening Bilbao and Barcelona to Allied shipping and of course makes the life of German submarines even more difficult... as if it was not bad enough already by this time.

Shaking of the taint of being aligned to the Axis and settling scores with Germany for that little mess it instigated back in 1941 another 200,000 military deaths seem good enough reasons...

And it assures that Spain will be ITTL Plan Marshall. Unlike OTL where the Spaniards were punished for having a fascist dictator (who by the way was hugely helped in becoming so by the Western Democracies weapon embargo to the legitimate Republican Government)

 

[Quinkana]

Especially as the straits do make a nice natural boundary between the Greek and Soviet zones, after all.

yep exactly. I also think any Soviet action in the region would be strongly condemned by the Americans, who would be a lot more interested in the region ittl for obvious reasons.

 

[Lascaris]

Especially as Romania would be going down fighting instead of going over to the Allies.

Codreanu is not, yet, in full control of the government. If he does...

Revenge on Germany for instigating the Second Spanish Civil War; the cachet of being one of the Allies; a small amount of military prestige; very probably, wartime relief and postwar economic aid from the US.

What could the Allies do with over 400, 000 Spanish troops added to OVERLORD? OT1H, this would be a largely veteran force, and already equipped, I think. Given the participation of the revived Spanish Left, many of them would be quite motivated. OTOH their equipment would be incompatible, and the Allies were very short of supply for their own troops in summer/fall 1944.

Perhaps the Spanish could be allocated to the Franco-Italian front. They could also be assigned to clean up German holdouts on the Biscay coast (if any, ITTL).

It would be a mostly veteran force that nearly all it's modern equipment is German and Italian made with rather little motor transport by western standard. Which likely mean that frontline service in large numbers after the initial advance poses logistical difficulties, though I guess the Spanish will be insisting on having some presence in the invasion of Germany. Soo for the most part taking out the German coastal garrisons I'd guess after meeting up with the French and Americans marching on the Loire?

Ofc they wouldn't be fast enough if there are no resistance against the Soviets in the City, but even with a split resistance it should be enough of a cluster fuck for the Greeks to control bits of the City. A split city is better than no city at all, and I don't see the Greeks not trying it at all.

The Soviets are literally at a swim's distance. Of course this is not something the Army Group HQ in Athens has not been spending the past several months trying to deal with...

An American Pomerania is plausible if we get bigger British and french occupation zones, hell they could give Bavaria to Greece (prob France). I just think the occupation zones could very much be changed compared to otl, especially if the Americans control more land than otl. Hell I think the Americans could attempt to make Pomerania independent at first considering how surrounded they are by the Soviets assuming that Pomerania is taken with Swedish or Danish support.

Greece and Spain for that matter are too small to get an occupation zone of their own. Though a Greek governor in Munich has a certain degree of irony in it...

I hope we see a different Cold War ittl. if Chiang launched a limited offensive instead of going for everything at the same time I think he could've kept Southern China since the CCP attacked when he was exhausted post war.

Well why Chhiang would NOT go hair on fire and guns blazing to secure Manchuria based on what has happened so far?

The Yugoslav and Korean wars should also be concurrent wars that would strain both American (and European) and Soviet capabilities, which would be very interesting, and make Greece come to its own in terms of foreign influence in Europe as America leans on their help while they focus on Korea instead.

If a Yugoslav and a Korean war are taking place simultaneously this is a pretty good way to start WW3...

Especially as the straits do make a nice natural boundary between the Greek and Soviet zones, after all.

Conveniently the OTL occupation zines had the Italians on their own in Uskudar.

And it assures that Spain will be ITTL Plan Marshall. Unlike OTL where the Spaniards were punished for having a fascist dictator (who by the way was hugely helped in becoming so by the Western Democracies weapon embargo to the legitimate Republican Government)

No one knows there is going to be a Marshall plan but being part of the post-war world order is oretty good incentive as seen by the last minute declarations of war on Germany OTL.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

It would be a mostly veteran force that nearly all it's modern equipment is German and Italian made with rather little motor transport by western standard. Which likely mean that frontline service in large numbers after the initial advance poses logistical difficulties, though I guess the Spanish will be insisting on having some presence in the invasion of Germany.

Most likely.

So for the most part taking out the German coastal garrisons I'd guess after meeting up with the French and Americans marching on the Loire?

It just seems to me that giving the Spanish the Franco-Italian front is a really good fit. It gives them a completely separate sector from anyone else, which would minimize any logistical confusion due to their different equipment. Plus their deficiencies in tanks and motorization almost don't matter there. And perhaps... the French Moroccan goumiers were really good mountain troops. Would the Spanish Moroccan Legion be comparable? If so, that sector would be the place for them.

Of course the Biscay coast is another good fit: close to Spain, so easily supplied without entanglement with other Allied logistics, and also not requiring much tanks or motorization. But actually, it shouldn't take them more than two months to get it done.

 

[Ferd42]

Most likely.

It just seems to me that giving the Spanish the Franco-Italian front is a really good fit. It gives them a completely separate sector from anyone else, which would minimize any logistical confusion due to their different equipment. Plus their deficiencies in tanks and motorization almost don't matter there. And perhaps... the French Moroccan goumiers were really good mountain troops. Would the Spanish Moroccan Legion be comparable? If so, that sector would be the place for them.

Of course the Biscay coast is another good fit: close to Spain, so easily supplied without entanglement with other Allied logistics, and also not requiring much tanks or motorization. But actually, it shouldn't take them more than two months to get it done.

I suppose it is possible that he Spanish take the Franco-Italian front, but to keep them in the fight against Germany they have one allied-equiped armoured division under the British or Americans?

 

[Sevarics]

Will a larger Greece with Anatolian bits end up having a higher birth rate than OTL?

 

[Lascaris]

Constantinople, August 17th, 1944

Ares Makedon had declined a position in the regular army in the aftermath of the liberation of Thessaloniki. Instead after a few weeks he had slipped east to join and lead the LAS partisans in East Macedonia and Thrace. His partisans had not been acting in a vacuum, Gyparis and his merry bands of the army of the interior had been also sent east, the coast was too long for the Bulgarians and the Germans to stop the Greeks and British from slipping men and arms in, and following the surrender of Turkey had been joined by Pontians and Circassians guerrilas from Asia Minor like Antonis Fosteridis that could ill fit to the regular army any more but were all too happy to continue fighting, just like Ares himself. Unlike further west his own partisans, he shouldn't be calling them his but he kept slipping, had significantly outnumbered these of the Dorces of the interior, the region included both some of the strongholds of the communist party like Kavala and most importantly he had managed to get a majority of Pomaks to join LAS unis and had even gotten the support of bands of Bulgarian Pomaks under Ali Reza Kehayov [1]. LAS counted about 8,500 partisans in Macedonia and Thrace in July, EOEA about 4,600.

Not in Constantinople though. One would had expected the proletariat to flock to LAS. It hadn't happened. The Constantinopolitan LAS could count about 6,000 members fewer than the Dashnaks that had come to dominate the Armenian community and had about 8,000 or the 11,000 to which EOEA had swelled. Barely over a third of the men and women who had flocked to the fighting organizations were armed but this hardly mattered now that Bulgaria had surrendered. What mattered was what he was supposed to do with the ferries full of Soviet soldiers coming from the Asiatic shore and welcomed by the Bulgarian soldiers. The Soviets were allies and fellow communists of course. His men were still ordered to disarm the Bulgarians and take control of as much of the city as they could...

Agios Stephanos, Constantinople, August 17th, 1944

A first parachute opened. Then a second. Then thousands more as Dakotas begun releasing the men of the British 2nd Para Brigade and the Greek 10th Para Regiment. Agios Stephanos was better known for the treaty of San Stefano signed there two generations ago. But the Greeks and British cared more about seizing Constantinople's single airport at the moment, which would be done without resistance. The paratroopers would then advance on the center of Constantinople 16km away on everything from commandeered vehicles to marching on foot, as more transport aircraft begun landing reinforcements.

Gallipoli, August 17th, 1944

The landing craft carrying the Greek 13th Marine Infantry Regiment hit the beach. Even with the Bulgarian surrender shipping through the Dardanelles would be impractical for some time, the Bulgarian coastal batteries would be silent but the minefields put over the last four years did not have such sensitivities. But the Greeks were more concerned about taking control of the peninsula before some enterprising Soviet officer in Lampsakos, on the Asian side of the straits got ideas...

West of Alexandroupolis, Thrace, August 17th, 1944

Lt General Andreas Kallinskis, commander of the Greek III Armoured Division, did not entirely trust his corps commander. There was little doubt Euripidis Bakirtzis was a capable officer. But he also was one of the mainstays of Venizelism within the officer corps, pampered by Pangalos and no Royalist government either Stratos in 1928 or Dragoumis in 1931 and again 1939 had dared touch these men and their stranglehold on the army. Yes old school Royalists like him and general Papagos were allowed to serve and got promoted to high command. Removing the Venizelist veterans of the Army of National Defence and the months of additional war service that got them promoted ahead of their former classmates? Why this would be a ploy to bring back George II by force of arms, even if even the former monarchist parties were now mostly reconciled with the republic. But Kallinskis couldn't much blame Bakirtzis orders to move his division with all possible speed to Constantinople...

Varna, Bulgaria, August 17th, 1944

The heavy cruiser Voroshilov escorted by one Soviet and two Turkish destroyers entered the port and begun unloading the Soviet soldiers it was carrying. Further south at Burgas a quarted of destroyers, two Soviet, two Turkish were unloading more soldiers. Compared to the number of Greek and British troops in Bulgaria this was only a token force. But it ensured that the Soviet Union had a presence on the ground in Bulgaria. The Bulgarian civilians, traditionally predisposed well towards the Russians were reasonably happy to see them instead of the Greeks. Prime minister Muraviev in Sofia shared the sentiment but for different reasons. As long as Bulgaria was not in danger of falling to the communists the Soviet presence would be useful....

Sofia, August 17th, 1944

Bulgarian civilians looked sullenly at the Greek and British soldiers moving through their streets. That the war was over was a good thing given how things had turned out. But no patriotic Bulgarian could feel happy at the disaster that had befallen the country. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers had been lost. Macedonia and Thrace liberated for the third time in a generation had been lost and tens of thousands of civilians, both native to them or who had moved there after 1941 had been turned to refugees. What was there to be happy about? It was a third national catastrophe. Greeks and Yugoslavs might of course contest who was liberating whom and find the Bulgarian settlers and collaborators somewhat unwelcome but things were always on the eye of the beholder.

Drancy concentration camp, August 17th, 1944

One more convoy with 1305 people was deported to Buchenwald. Among the deportees were several notable French including Marcel Bloch. Aged 52, Bloch was already ill. It was not going to be an easy ordeal for him...

Bucharest, August 17th, 1944

Corneliu Codreanu was a frustrated man in his temporary headquarters in the Ministry of the Interior. The damn Bulgarians had surrendered on him leaving the fatherland open to invasion from the south as well. What could someone expect from Slavs? And worse that traitorous bastard Maniu had resurfaced from the hole he had hidden, proclaimed himself head of a provisional government in the name of the king, who remained nowhere to be found, and ordered the army to fight back. Which the army or several of its units at least were already doing. This had to be brought under control before it became too late the Soviets in the east were gaining ground by the hour. A second attack on the ministry of war and one on the royal palace, where Maniu was probably hiding were ordered...

{1] Kehayov was a Bulgarian Pomak who had led some guerilla activity against the Bulgarian government in 1942-46 ostensibly with British support. Which from the point of view of TTL Greece makes this quite useful obviously...
[2] Modern Yeşilköy renamed in 1926 OTL

 

[Whiteshore]

Bucharest, August 17th, 1944

Corneliu Codreanu was a frustrated man in his temporary headquarters in the Ministry of the Interior. The damn Bulgarians had surrendered on him leaving the fatherland open to invasion from the south as well. What could someone expect from Slavs? And worse that traitorous bastard Maniu had resurfaced from the hole he had hidden, proclaimed himself head of a provisional government in the name of the king, who remained nowhere to be found, and ordered the army to fight back. Which the army or several of its units at least were already doing. This had to be brought under control before it became too late the Soviets in the east were gaining ground by the hour. A second attack on the ministry of war and one on the royal palace, where Maniu was probably hiding were ordered...

I wouldn't be surprised if Szalasi is already taking notes from this on how to most efficiently deal with Horthy if he launches his own coup.

 

[phil03]

A big update, to which I come late due to being on the road to coming back from the holidays (I suspect others being in the same situation is why the thread hasn't been super active), and the one during which things finally get to a head in Constantinople.

Obviously, the situation isn't ideal, as there is still Soviets coming in, but it isn't catastrophic either. The local communists are obeying the government, the Dashnaks are probably going to prefer the Greeks all things considering, the Greeks regular forces are coming in large numbers and the need to get forces to Varna limits how many forces the Soviets can get in Constantinople, and therefore how fast they can disarm Bulgarians and take over neighborhoods.... Overall I'd say the Greeks/WAllies are likely to have a fairly decent hand when people inevitably sit down to discuss a longer-term solution.

Appart from that, Romania is being an interesting place but I doubt its fate will change all that much compared to OTL, Muraviev is probably right that a Soviet presence in Bulgaria is giving him a better hand re the WAllies and the Greeks are (understandably) probably over-worrying re Galipoli. Its one thing to play games in areas that were Turkish or international areas before the war but Gallipoli is legally Greek for everyone except the Axis so trying to take it and not giving it back to Athens when it ask nicely would come up with a ton of geopolitical complications for the Kremlin. IMO it just wouldn't have been worth it for Moscow.

 

[Whiteshore]

A big update, to which I come late due to being on the road to coming back from the holidays (I suspect others being in the same situation is why the thread hasn't been super active), and the one during which things finally get to a head in Constantinople.

Inb4 Constantinople ends up being the site of a Manila-esque bloodbath here.

 

[galileo-034]

the Dashnaks are probably going to prefer the Greeks all things considering,

More probably the Soviets. After the First Republic's collapse, the Armenian diaspora tended to support Soviets as a means to liberate Turkish Armenia (per my reading of Ter Minassian's book on the First Republic).

 

[Gokbay]

More probably the Soviets. After the First Republic's collapse, the Armenian diaspora tended to support Soviets as a means to liberate Turkish Armenia (per my reading of Ter Minassian's book on the First Republic).

Well, ITTL Soviet-Turkish borders followed the Pre-WW1 Russo-Ottoman borders so less reason for Armenians to support the Soviets as more of Greater Armenia is already within USSR compared to OTL.

 

[galileo-034]

Well, ITTL Soviet-Turkish borders followed the Pre-WW1 Russo-Ottoman borders so less reason for Armenians to support the Soviets as more of Greater Armenia is already within USSR compared to OTL.

Armenian claims were to the whole of Wilsonian borders of Armenia, hence their support of Soviets. Keeping the 1914 borders ITTL is hardly qualifying as the Greater Armenia's dreams of (ex)Turkish Armenians.

 

[Gokbay]

Armenian claims were to the whole of Wilsonian borders of Armenia, hence their support of Soviets. Keeping the 1914 borders ITTL is hardly qualifying as the Greater Armenia's dreams of (ex)Turkish Armenians.

Sure, I didn't say no reason, I said less reason.

 

[galileo-034]

Sure, I didn't say no reason, I said less reason.

The 1914 borders barely make a difference from OTL.