Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Quinkana]

Not just them I think. What better way to gain Turkeys loyalty to the west than give them the Northeastern part of the UN straits zone? Assuming Uskudar is in the straits zone, give it and everything else in the area to Turkey, Biga and the Western portion to Greece, and keep Constantinople demilitarized except for the police and equal sized military contingents from the five permanent security council members and a conglomerate UN military force of the same size. Will the Soviets be happy? Of course not. But I don’t think that they’d go to war over it, particularly if their pre existing bases are left alone and travel through the straits is unrestricted.

tbf I'm going to assume the Soviets continue holding the rest of Asiatic Constantinople as they want to park their sensors and anti air/anti ship assets around the region, so it depends on what the Turks think about the situation. Do they find the Soviets too important to not lose?

Do I hear Berlin crisis 2.0 ? Add to that the Soviets having nukes too for the rematch.
Not hard to imagine why the Greeks would be motivated to have theirs too (if the Israeli could, why not the Greeks).. and before we know that's like Pakistan vs India, Mediterranean edition.

Yeah we could see this happen, and I think it'd be something the Soviets wouldn't fare well in, especially in regions that're surrounded by the Greeks, like the Canakkale region, while Uskudar would be harder to blockade due to having the Turks and the Black sea to fall back onto. Losing Canakkale at the very least would be something the Soviets would be very pissed on though...

If the clause survives intact to the post WW2 peace treaty with Turkey, right? Since the Turks "kind of" broke the treaty by remilitarizing and then going to war (for the obvious euphemism), is it even still legally binding? Not to mention the Soviets were not signatory to this treaty either. So it's bound to be revised and superseded by the new one.

Frankly I see the Americans/British keeping that clause (as they know Constantinople and Greek controlled areas would be solidly Greek due to many

And there is the question of the framework under which the referendum would be organized. Hard to see Soviets and Western Allies, chief of which the Greeks, coming around a consensus on the question. What happens if the Greeks on the Mandate's governing body don't recognize the results of the vote held in Soviet held districts, and vice versa? Nice mess begging to happen ...

I see the Greeks saying that the results on Russian controlled territories (which should have most of their inhabitants kicked out by 1950) were false and that they were going to march in and do their own referendum, while I've no idea how the Turks would react. It really depends on how important the Soviets are post war.

 

[Lascaris]

Do I hear Berlin crisis 2.0 ? Add to that the Soviets having nukes too for the rematch.
Not hard to imagine why the Greeks would be motivated to have theirs too (if the Israeli could, why not the Greeks).. and before we know that's like Pakistan vs India, Mediterranean edition.

If the clause survives intact to the post WW2 peace treaty with Turkey, right? Since the Turks "kind of" broke the treaty by remilitarizing and then going to war (for the obvious euphemism), is it even still legally binding? Not to mention the Soviets were not signatory to this treaty either. So it's bound to be revised and superseded by the new one.

They were not a signatory but they were present in the peace conference. Post that what happens to this clause depends on what happens in the new peace conference. It could be abolished altogether, it could be left as it is, it could be extended by say 5-10 years.

And there is the question of the framework under which the referendum would be organized. Hard to see Soviets and Western Allies, chief of which the Greeks, coming around a consensus on the question. What happens if the Greeks on the Mandate's governing body don't recognize the results of the vote held in Soviet held districts, and vice versa? Nice mess begging to happen ...

I shorta doubt Greeks will be let to return in the Soviet zone. But by the same token I would be expecting movement of Turks from a Greek dominated western zone eastwards. Depending on the options of a referendum the Soviets wouldn't even need to cheat to get an overwhelming majority on their side...

 

[Quinkana]

I shorta doubt Greeks will be let to return in the Soviet zone. But by the same token I would be expecting movement of Turks from a Greek dominated western zone eastwards. Depending on the options of a referendum the Soviets wouldn't even need to cheat to get an overwhelming majority on their side...

tbf so would the Turks vote to be part of Russia? I don't think they'd want to be Russian, since they're Turkic anyhow.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

2. Constantinople, including the Biga Sanjak becomes a League of Nations mandate for a 30 years period at which point a referendum will determine its future. Within the city the Turkish government to retain control of the Ottoman palaces.

The vagueness of this specific clause, assuming it is followed as you stated, is gonna annoy the hell out of whoever loses the referendum. Since there’s only one referendum mentioned the election is more or less determined by how one determines Constantinople and the amount of self selection involved in the population. If it’s just European Constantinople it’s almost assuredly a guaranteed Greek win even with Biga involved. What is considered Asian Constantinople wether it be nothing at all, all of it, or anything in between is likely what decides that election. If the election is held at all. I could see the Greeks pushing to keep that election but for Constantinople to be classified very very specifically to maximize gains but keep it safely Greek. Something like European Constantinople, the Princes Islands, and Imrali if it escaped the population transfers. Maybe even if it didn’t escape since it’s former inhabitants would probably like to go home and it has a very strategic location.

 

[Lascaris]

The vagueness of this specific clause, assuming it is followed as you stated, is gonna annoy the hell out of whoever loses the referendum. Since there’s only one referendum mentioned the election is more or less determined by how one determines Constantinople and the amount of self selection involved in the population. If it’s just European Constantinople it’s almost assuredly a guaranteed Greek win even with Biga involved. What is considered Asian Constantinople wether it be nothing at all, all of it, or anything in between is likely what decides that election. If the election is held at all. I could see the Greeks pushing to keep that election but for Constantinople to be classified very very specifically to maximize gains but keep it safely Greek. Something like European Constantinople, the Princes Islands, and Imrali if it escaped the population transfers. Maybe even if it didn’t escape since it’s former inhabitants would probably like to go home and it has a very strategic location.

Next you'll tell us the clause was deliberately vague.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Next you'll tell us the clause was deliberately vague.

Who needs “the king in the mountain” to come rescue you when you’ve got “the P.M. in the peace deal” still paying dividends. I know it was probably a group decision to make it somebody else’s problem down there road, but the idea of Venizelos having one last laugh/win brings a smile to my face.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

I wonder if Greece will make any demands out of Cyprus when this war ends.

 

[Vaeius]

Who needs “the king in the mountain” to come rescue you when you’ve got “the P.M. in the peace deal” still paying dividends. I know it was probably a group decision to make it somebody else’s problem down there road, but the idea of Venizelos having one last laugh/win brings a smile to my face.

The image of the ghost of Venizelos and the marble emperor toasting in the afterlife springs to mind at that thought.

 

[Lascaris]

Burma, June 20th, 1944

Montgomery's 14th army broke the siege of Imphal. The next day Allied forces would go on the offensive along the front.

North of Ancona, Italy, June 21st, 1944

The 1st South African Armoured Division, joined the 6th South African Armoured in the front-line. With the war being less than popular back in South Africa, it had been decided back in 1942 to convert the two infantry divisions fighting in North Africa to armor. The two new divisions had been formed in early 1943 in Egypt but it had taken over a year before they had been moved to Italy between training and tank shortages, providing replacements to the British and Indian units fighting in Greece and Anatolia kept taking precedence. But finally the South Africans had joined the advance of the British 8th Army north back in April. And now with both divisions in the front the South Africans had gotten their own corps as well under general Pienaar.

Byelorussia, June 22nd, 1944

Nearly 1.7 million Soviet soldiers with almost six thousand tanks and assault guns and close to eight thousand aircraft in support struck. Opposing them the German Army Group Center had fewer than half a million men with barely a tenth as many tanks and assault guns as the attacking Soviets. Worse yet for the Germans they were not even expecting the offensive to come in the center of the front, thinking instead the Soviets would had struck in Ukraine. With five days Soviet forces had crossed the Dnieper and were advancing further west.

Karelian Isthmus, June 25th, 1944

Three thousand artillery pieces begun raining fire on the Finnish positions. They would soon be joined by 1,500 aircraft. Then after ten hours of intense bombardment 286,000 Soviet soldiers and 760 tanks went to the attack, spearheaded by two Mechanized Corps. The Finns taken by surprise by the attack on the isthmus only had 75,000 men on the isthmus.

Svir river, Karelia, June 25th, 1944

184,000 Soviet soldiers supported by 327 tanks attacked across the river. Finnish forces were stronger here, this had been the sector where the Finns were expecting an attack, but the Soviets still had comfortable numerical superiority. Besides any Finnish division fighting on the Svir was a division that could not be shifted to the Karelian isthmus. The STAVKA, was not leaving much to chance. Field marshal Triandafillov, fresh from victory against Turkey, had been tasked with knocking Finland out of the war and had been provided ample reinforcements, as several of the veteran Caucasian and Siberian divisions that had won the war in Anatolia were shifted north with the war against Turkey over...

Sivas, June 27th, 1944

Sultan Abdulmejid II died at age 76, having reigned for the past 18 years. His had been a thankless job. The actual power of the sultan and caliph had been severely curtailed since the Young Turks had come to power a generation before, all the more so after Kemal's return to power. Kemal had viewed him with suspicion, never forgetting the role of sultan against the Grand National Assembly in 1919-21, and always considering him a threat to his own power. He had dutifully supported the war effort, when Turkey had joined the war in 1941, after all like most of his subjects he had believed his country was fighting a just war, only to see the country severely defeated for the second time in a generation. The stress had probably been too much for the old man who had passed away. Prince Ahmed Nihad would now be proclaimed sultan Ahmed IV. But things were not that easy. The new sultan was bedridden from an earlier stroke, which made his ability to perform his duties questionable. And there were also political questions to address. The sultan was also caliph of Islam since the time of Selim I and had been anything but shy about using his position as caliph to proclaim jihad against the enemies of Turkey in both world wars. With Britain, France and the Soviet Union having millions of Muslim subjects neither cared for a repetition. Maitland Wilson had already visited Karabekir demanding Ahmed IV would not be proclaimed caliph without the consent of the Allies...

Drancy camp, France, June 30th, 1944

Marcel Bloch after spending the past several months is various prisons was moved to the Drancy internment camp. He would spend there six weeks before being shipped off to the Buchenwald concentration camp.

Constantinople, July 1st, 1944

Bulgarian soldiers looked warily at the other side of the straits and the Soviet soldiers there. Propaganda posters all across Bulgaria proper and its occupied territories proclaimed "Tsargrad had become Bulgarian". The propaganda might work if you were a rural peasant. Maybe. If you accepted the stream of dead and maimed soldiers coming back to Bulgaria for the past four years. It was more difficult to stomach if you actually knew how the war was going...

Macedonia, July 2nd, 1944

The massed artillery barrage, heavier than ever before in the Balkans, signalled the beginning of the offensive of the Allied Armies of the Orient. Between them the attacking Allied armies had over 762,000 men and 27 divisions, 6 of them armoured. The Greek 1st army accounted for almost half the men and a dozen divisions...

Italy, July 2nd, 1944

Beginning the offensive to break the German defenses on the Appenines at the same day with the Allied offensive in the Balkans had been something of a happy coincidence. This didn't make it any less of a problem for the OKW that had to deal simultaneusly with the two Allied offensives in the Mediterranean on top of the deteriorating situation in France and Byelorussia...

 

[Whiteshore]

Sivas, June 27th, 1944

Sultan Abdulmejid II died at age 76, having reigned for the past 18 years. His had been a thankless job. The actual power of the sultan and caliph had been severely curtailed since the Young Turks had come to power a generation before, all the more so after Kemal's return to power. Kemal had viewed him with suspicion, never forgetting the role of sultan against the Grand National Assembly in 1919-21, and always considering him a threat to his own power. He had dutifully supported the war effort, when Turkey had joined the war in 1941, after all like most of his subjects he had believed his country was fighting a just war, only to see the country severely defeated for the second time in a generation. The stress had probably been too much for the old man who had passed away. Prince Ahmed Nihad would now be proclaimed sultan Ahmed IV. But things were not that easy. The new sultan was bedridden from an earlier stroke, which made his ability to perform his duties questionable. And there were also political questions to address. The sultan was also caliph of Islam since the time of Selim I and had been anything but shy about using his position as caliph to proclaim jihad against the enemies of Turkey in both world wars. With Britain, France and the Soviet Union having millions of Muslim subjects neither cared for a repetition. Maitland Wilson had already visited Karabekir demanding Ahmed IV would not be proclaimed caliph without the consent of the Allies...

Speaking of the Ottomans, what is Osman Fuad doing right now?

 

[Xenophonte]

Karelian Isthmus, June 25th, 1944

Svir river, Karelia, June 25th, 1944

Well, even if could have been hard to match and/or to attempt to address the Soviet numerical superiority, yet after that was known that Turkey had surrendered... I'd have expected that at difference to their German allies that the Finns shouldn't have been caught so unprepared for the simultaneous Soviets offensives neither for their magnitude nor for its chosen places.

Drancy camp, France, June 30th, 1944

Even if as OTL his future perspectives may appear as quite grimmer, I still hope that ITTL somewhat M. Bloch may have a different/better fate...

 

[po8crg]

Speaking of the Ottomans, what is Osman Fuad doing right now?

Hopefully not leading cavalry charges.

(For those that don't know, this is a reference to an event in Kaiserreich, where, under certain circumstances, there is an attempted military coup against Abdulmecid where he is killed, Ahmed is proclaimed Sultan, Osman Fuad happens to be at a (ceremonial) cavalry barracks and he leads them out "in full ceremonial uniform, armed with lance, carbine and cavalry sabers, the household cavalry charged downhill to the Dolmabahce palace and crushed the paramilitary rebels positioned outside." He captures and executes Ahmed and proclaims himself Sultan)

 

[Khan Doomy]

I expect with Ahmed bedridden, Osman is told to wait, letting Ahmed be the transition Sultan, while he ascends in a new institutional role under a new constitution

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Byelorussia, June 22nd, 1944

Nearly 1.7 million Soviet soldiers with almost six thousand tanks and assault guns and close to eight thousand aircraft in support struck. Opposing them the German Army Group Center had fewer than half a million men with barely a tenth as many tanks and assault guns as the attacking Soviets. Worse yet for the Germans they were not even expecting the offensive to come in the center of the front, thinking instead the Soviets would had struck in Ukraine. With five days Soviet forces had crossed the Dnieper and were advancing further west.

Karelian Isthmus, June 25th, 1944

Three thousand artillery pieces begun raining fire on the Finnish positions. They would soon be joined by 1,500 aircraft. Then after ten hours of intense bombardment 286,000 Soviet soldiers and 760 tanks went to the attack, spearheaded by two Mechanized Corps. The Finns taken by surprise by the attack on the isthmus only had 75,000 men on the isthmus.

Svir river, Karelia, June 25th, 1944

184,000 Soviet soldiers supported by 327 tanks attacked across the river. Finnish forces were stronger here, this had been the sector where the Finns were expecting an attack, but the Soviets still had comfortable numerical superiority. Besides any Finnish division fighting on the Svir was a division that could not be shifted to the Karelian isthmus. The STAVKA, was not leaving much to chance. Field marshal Triandafillov, fresh from victory against Turkey, had been tasked with knocking Finland out of the war and had been provided ample reinforcements, as several of the veteran Caucasian and Siberian divisions that had won the war in Anatolia were shifted north with the war against Turkey over...

I’m not sure if this is better or worse for Finland. On one hand this is a slightly larger and I think more veteran force. On the other hand the offensive is starting a bit later which will give the Finns about 15 more days to build fortifications since the attack on Viipuri happened on the tenth OTL. And they were actively building the VKT line and reinforcing the VT line at the time so this is worth mentioning. Not a lot of time but every little bit helps. So the defenders might be slightly better able to deal with the initial bombardment and the coming assaults. Plus the Allies were leaning on the Soviets hard to end the Finnish side show, so the Moscow armistice might come at basically the same time. So if the Finns are able to hold at the VT line they may be able to extract a better peace deal than OTL at basically the same time. Maybe they can keep the Ingrian Finns and the other Finnish ethnic groups that evacuated from Ingria, and possibly a little more land. If memory serves the Finns had a slightly more advantageous treaty from the Winter War so that should help them at least somewhat even if things end up exactly the same.

 

[Quinkana]

Constantinople, July 1st, 1944

Macedonia, July 2nd, 1944

Well, we're going to see the Greeks push back against the Bulgarians, aren't we, and this will probably break the Bulgarians. Considering how the army of the Orient are much more likely to fight the Bulgarians for unconditional surrender I think post WWII Bulgaria will be a very different beast (not to mention the fact the Soviets probably won't be able to make Bulgaria a communist government).

That would be very interesting for the Balkans, especially if the Balkans becomes split between the Americans and Soviets. Perhaps a Soviet Romania, Hungary and Slovakia

I’m not sure if this is better or worse for Finland. On one hand this is a slightly larger and I think more veteran force. On the other hand the offensive is starting a bit later which will give the Finns about 15 more days to build fortifications since the attack on Viipuri happened on the tenth OTL. And they were actively building the VKT line and reinforcing the VT line at the time so this is worth mentioning. Not a lot of time but every little bit helps. So the defenders might be slightly better able to deal with the initial bombardment and the coming assaults. Plus the Allies were leaning on the Soviets hard to end the Finnish side show, so the Moscow armistice might come at basically the same time. So if the Finns are able to hold at the VT line they may be able to extract a better peace deal than OTL at basically the same time. Maybe they can keep the Ingrian Finns and the other Finnish ethnic groups that evacuated from Ingria, and possibly a little more land. If memory serves the Finns had a slightly more advantageous treaty from the Winter War so that should help them at least somewhat even if things end up exactly the same.

tbf I hope we get a bigger finland, that'll be good for the Finns, and it'd make their role in the Cold War more interesting: the neutral bloc could be something the Finns create.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Would the Ottoman monarchy really be restored? The Habsburgs never were seriously considered for restoration nor where the Hohenzollerns.

 

[Vaeius]

Would the Ottoman monarchy really be restored? The Habsburgs never were seriously considered for restoration nor where the Hohenzollerns.

It wasn't abolished in the first place here if I'm not mistaken, although it was made largely toothless. It's more a question on whether they'd be able to stick around after the peace and who they'd be useful for.

 

[Khan Doomy]

It was not abolished, just given ceremonial head of state role. A lot about it's future will depend on the trajectory of Turkish politics post-wars. The Soviets had no issue with working with monarchs (Afghanistan), and the Sultan could be relegated to a very ceremonial role (ala the King of Sweden) without even the head of state elements. Perhaps Osman is too active to accept this. One option could be for him to go into secular politics (again not unprecedented), especially if Ahmed survives as OTL (he lived to 1954)

 

[Sphenodon]

I’m not sure if this is better or worse for Finland. On one hand this is a slightly larger and I think more veteran force. On the other hand the offensive is starting a bit later which will give the Finns about 15 more days to build fortifications since the attack on Viipuri happened on the tenth OTL. And they were actively building the VKT line and reinforcing the VT line at the time so this is worth mentioning. Not a lot of time but every little bit helps. So the defenders might be slightly better able to deal with the initial bombardment and the coming assaults. Plus the Allies were leaning on the Soviets hard to end the Finnish side show, so the Moscow armistice might come at basically the same time. So if the Finns are able to hold at the VT line they may be able to extract a better peace deal than OTL at basically the same time. Maybe they can keep the Ingrian Finns and the other Finnish ethnic groups that evacuated from Ingria, and possibly a little more land. If memory serves the Finns had a slightly more advantageous treaty from the Winter War so that should help them at least somewhat even if things end up exactly the same.

Tempted to agree with his assessment. For one, the alt-WW treaty was actually quite favorable in that the Finns (barely) hung onto Viipuri/Vyborg, a city of ~80k people at the time if memory serves. For another, the Finns have both marginally greater prep time and a differently-extended Soviet force - I would not expect all of the materiel dedicated to the Turkish campaign to have been relocated north in a bit under two months, particularly given the needs of garrisons and peacekeeping forces in Turkey (and perhaps parts of the Caucasus where Turkish-supporting militias are still active).

If nothing else, I doubt the coming peace would lead to the Finns losing Viipuri and the other ATL bits they hold - objectively gains over OTL. Unsure if Moscow will be willing to accept any territorial losses beyond writing those off again, but keeping evacuees from Ingria could slide with the right amount of diplomatic capital. Maybe a DMZ of the border between Viipuri and Leningrad will be enforced here, given how much a security concern that is/was to the Soviets.

 

[Mechadogzilla]

Would the allies not just abolish the Turkish monarchy? Others know far more about 20th century Turkish politics so I will defer to their judgement, but considering that the Ottomans have waged 2 world wars against the allies and have attempted to leverage the title of caliph in both wars to incite the allies' Muslim subjects to rise up against them, would the allies not just insist on turning Turkey into a republic? Maybe it doesn't matter considering Turkey will be a rump state of its former self in any case, but I still feel like if the British and French are dictating terms in an unconditional surrender they are going to insist Turkey become a republic.

I suppose the allies did not abolish the Japanese monarchy in OTL, but from everything I know the Japanese monarchy was far more popular and culturally ingrained than the Turkish monarchy is ITTL.