Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

It will be tough to predict how turkey will stand, as above all else, turkey is one of the most unique nations in the world. How the first rulers of post war turkey decide to channel the unique Turkish culture will decide how they fare in the future. From An Afghanistan to a more liberal government is all possible. Of course, unless turkey is partitioned
. Perhaps, but if the OTL fate of the defeated Axis main nations, would serve as an example for TTL... Then I think that even if not partitioned that the Turkish surviving leadership may will have way less influence, if any, on shaping their nation the post war rebuilding. Cause, might be more probable that, at least, in the immediate, postwar Turkey would have to pass through a period of Allied military occupation
And, that if so, the nation will be under the control of an Allied appointed military government. Which would the ones, following and enforcing whatever pre-agreed allied political guidelines and past treaty dispositions (political, military, economic) to would be imposed to Turkey.
 
Addressing some points
1. Balkan Muslims. Even historically, the preferred destination for Balkan Muslims fleeing the Balkans was Turkey. As late as the 1940s i.e Albanians and Bosnians were trying to emigrate there. There is no need for direct borders. Greeks from the Caucasus and Black Sea littoral were emigrating to Greece up to the 1940 through the sea.

Albania is and will always be poor, with powerful outgroup-ingroup social structures. Not exactly a preferred destination.

EEZ does not give you any legal right to intervene with peaceful passage (it is not territorial waters and people need to stop treating them as that).

And why would Greece stop these flows, either they go to Turkey, or they come to Greece. The Greek governments like any government would prefer refugees not to come to them.

2. Turkmen in Mesopotamia would leave for the same reason they are leaving now. Competition with Kurds and Arabs.

3. Kurdish and Turkish political and military alliance was based on one factor = Armenians. A result of the war that sees the extension of Armenian territory, and change in ownership patterns will be more than enough reason for Kurds to cooperate with Turks as in 1900-1923.

4. This article about the 1927-1930 economic crisis in Turkey might help those seeking more information about the Turkish economy.
 
Kurdish and Turkish political and military alliance was based on one factor = Armenians. A result of the war that sees the extension of Armenian territory, and change in ownership patterns will be more than enough reason fo
I actually disagree as if Turkey allies with the USSR Kurdistan will basically be pushed into the WAllies camp unless it gets too much influence from the USSR and becomes an USSR influenced state.
 
Wanted to note another possible demographic source for Turkey ITL. Remaining Balkan Muslims (Bosniaks and in Bulgaria), plus Turkmen from Mesopotamia. A weaker Turkey means that likely Bulgarian assimilationist policy will be implement fully leading to a mass migration, and a Yugoslav civil war may mean migration from Bosnia to Turkey as well (as in history)
I wonder to what extend the Turkish-Bulgarian alliance affects things on this, after all Turkey and Bulgaria have fought on the same side of two wars had had been allied in the 1930s as a counterbalance to the Balkan Entente. Probably not that much...
 
I would say that the presence of the Yugoslav army in exile is not likely to affect the size of the Yugoslav partisans. Why? Because the units that escaped to Greece in 1940 were in their grand majority recruited from Serbia proper. But on the other hand all the way to late 1944 the grand majority of the Yugoslav partisans were recruited from outside Serbia.
IOTL, by 1944, the Partisans were effectively "the only game in town" for opposing the Germans. The exiled monarchy was impotent and insignificant. ITTL, the royal government is fighting Germany with a substantial army. IOTL, Allied intelligence noted the aggressiveness of the Partisans compared to the cautious and compromised Chetniks, and chose to back the Partisans, simply ignoring the claims of the exile government. ITTL, they can't do that.

Well, maybe they could - OTL they bullied the Polish exile government into compromising with the Soviet puppet government. But that was after the USSR had occupied a chunk of Polish territory, and it was about making nice with Stalin.

Regardless, the existence of the Yugoslav government and army in exile as a substantial force would substantially change the dynamics of Resistance operations there.

IMO; YMMV. And it's not my TL.
 
I wonder to what extend the Turkish-Bulgarian alliance affects things on this, after all Turkey and Bulgaria have fought on the same side of two wars had had been allied in the 1930s as a counterbalance to the Balkan Entente. Probably not that much...
I actually cannot say much on that in the interwar years. There is always an underlying tension, still exists among the nationalist cliques in both countries, and view of those alliances as alliance of need, not preference. Point being if Turkey and Bulgaria are not allied/aligned, and Turkey cannot threaten Bulgaria, there are those that would happily complete what they see as "liberation" from Muslims.
 
I actually cannot say much on that in the interwar years. There is always an underlying tension, still exists among the nationalist cliques in both countries, and view of those alliances as alliance of need, not preference. Point being if Turkey and Bulgaria are not allied/aligned, and Turkey cannot threaten Bulgaria, there are those that would happily complete what they see as "liberation" from Muslims.
I'd think if Greece is the Hegemon of the Balkans Bulgaria will be pulled into an alliance with them and Yugoslavia against the rest of the Warsaw pact Balkan nations (maybe another Yugoslavia, Hungary and Romania).
 
I actually cannot say much on that in the interwar years. There is always an underlying tension, still exists among the nationalist cliques in both countries, and view of those alliances as alliance of need, not preference. Point being if Turkey and Bulgaria are not allied/aligned, and Turkey cannot threaten Bulgaria, there are those that would happily complete what they see as "liberation" from Muslims.

I can claim only anecdotal evidence - so take it with a truck-load of salt, but indeed I have the feeling that popular opinion in Bulgaria was traditionally anti ottoman/turkish.
 
I'd think if Greece is the Hegemon of the Balkans Bulgaria will be pulled into an alliance with them and Yugoslavia against the rest of the Warsaw pact Balkan nations (maybe another Yugoslavia, Hungary and Romania).
Hegemon's tend to be resented. Especially ones that in local historiography is presented as overbearing (as Bulgarian historiography treats both the Roman Empire centered on Constantinople, and the Patriarchate in Ottoman times). Just like Hellenism is based on a rejection of the Ottoman Empire and problematic relationship with the Catholic West, Bulgarianism is based on a dual rejection of Hellenism and the Ottoman Empire. With no borders with Turkey, the first element is likely to be stronger.
 
Hegemon's tend to be resented. Especially ones that in local historiography is presented as overbearing (as Bulgarian historiography treats both the Roman Empire centered on Constantinople, and the Patriarchate in Ottoman times). Just like Hellenism is based on a rejection of the Ottoman Empire and problematic relationship with the Catholic West, Bulgarianism is based on a dual rejection of Hellenism and the Ottoman Empire. With no borders with Turkey, the first element is likely to be stronger.
I totally agree here, though I would say that some years of peace, trade and interaction as well as being on the same side of the Cold War might smoothen the tension between the nations. On the other hand the likely expansion of Greece into Bulgaria will remain a wound in their relations.
 
I totally agree here, though I would say that some years of peace, trade and interaction as well as being on the same side of the Cold War might smoothen the tension between the nations. On the other hand the likely expansion of Greece into Bulgaria will remain a wound in their relations.
I do think Bulgaria would form an alliance with Turkey but Turkey would be too weak. I think post cold war Bulgaria allying with Russia's possible tho.
 
I still don’t think we can ignore the possibility of Russia using Turkey as a proxy to try and get at the Straits. Even if post-war negotiations fail and Greece manages to hold Constantinople, the big difference between OTL and TTL is that the Straits were in play during the war and there exists an “aggrieved” party with a claim (Turkey). The USSR can forcibly communize a Turkish rump state and then immediately start making noises about “Greek imperialism against the Turkish people in the Straits” and go from there, like what Tito did with North Macedonia IOTL.
 
I still don’t think we can ignore the possibility of Russia using Turkey as a proxy to try and get at the Straits. Even if post-war negotiations fail and Greece manages to hold Constantinople, the big difference between OTL and TTL is that the Straits were in play during the war and there exists an “aggrieved” party with a claim (Turkey). The USSR can forcibly communize a Turkish rump state and then immediately start making noises about “Greek imperialism against the Turkish people in the Straits” and go from there, like what Tito did with North Macedonia IOTL.

Georgian and Armenian SSR claims on Turkish territory OTL was a thing, so USSR having a satellite state Turkey to make claims over the Straits would make sense.
 
Part 105
Sofia, Bulgaria, September 27th, 1942

A state funeral for Boris III, was held in St Alexander Nevsky cathedral in Sofia, before his remains were moved to the Rila monastery to be interred. With his son Simeon still a minor a regency council had been set up, under Boris brother Cyril and prime minister Filov. Two hundred hostages held in the Eptapyrgion prison of Thessaloniki had been executed and reprisals had expanded from there in occupied Thrace and Macedonia. But the reprisals would not bring back Boris and alter the political instability his death was bringing to Bulgaria.

Peenemunde, Germany, October 3rd, 1942

The first A4 rocket rose to the air. Development work on liquid fuel rockets was not unique to Germany and Werner Von Braun A4's designer, Robert Goddard had pioneered the design of liquid fuel rockets and in the Soviet Union Sergei Korolev and Valentin Glushko, after their release from prison back in 1939 had plan and designs of their own, even though they could not really pursue them at the moment. But nothing matched in size and sophistication the A4 to date...

Bizerta, Tunisia, October 5th, 1942


Hans-Jürgen von Arnim handed over his sidearm to Alphonse Juin, who passed it over to an aide and went into captivity. Perhaps understandably not much love was being lost between the two men while the allies had not failed to make a point at the surrender, the first of a German major formation in the war, being given to a French general. Victory in Tunisia had not come cheaply to the allies the British, French and Americans had lost over 45,000 men in the drive to Tunis and Bizerta alone. But the Germans and Italians had lost over 150,000 men including prisoners of war....

South-Eastern Anatolia, October 7th, 1942


Ten divisions of the British 9th Army and the French Armee d' Orient sprang to the attack. This time Slim and De Lattre were much more confident of victory. Between them they had over 243,000 men available. According to available intelligence the Turks and Germans opposite them had more men, some 343,000 overall but many of them were tied down protecting their lines of communication against a mounting Kurdish insurgency, Lawrence talents and liberal application of gold sovereigns by his SOE agents were bringing results, while yet more were tied down to keep the fighting units in supply, both the Turks and Germans had for the most part to rely on animal transport beyond the railroad. Then the allies had nearly 800 tanks available, including newly delivered Sherman tanks and Centaur II's with the new 6 pounder gun when the defender had left than a dozen LT-35 tanks surviving from 1941.

Leninakan, Armenia, October 9th, 1942

Turkish, German and Italian artillery start raining once more on the city as Fahrettin Altay's 3rd army resumed the offensive. It had taken nearly 6 weeks to sufficiently rebuild Turkish supply lines and bring forward enough reinforcements to make an offensive viable, Fahrettin had available nearly 335,000 men and 130 tanks of the Italian Centauro division. But Triandafilov's Transcaucasus front had received reinforcements of his own, with three rifle divisions and two armoured brigades with 130 T-34 tanks joining his forces, his 15 divisions had over 196,000 men and 500 tanks available. And while coordination with the Iranians remained problematic, by now the Iranian army counted another 49,000 men in the front...

Off Cape Esperance, Guadalcanal, October 11th, 1942


USS Boise opened up on the Japanese cruisers. Moments later three more US cruisers would join the battle. The surprised Japanese would lose a heavy cruiser and three destroyers with another heavy cruiser heavily damaged, the Americans would lose a destroyer with two of their cruisers damaged.

Piraeus, October 12th, 1942


The ocean liner Patris had been laid down for the "National Steam Navigation company" of the Empeirikos brothers back in 1933, to replace the older Megali Hellas. Both ocean liners as well as the Ionia of the rival Greek line of the Goulandris brothers had been pressed to service as troopships participating in the liberation of the Dodecanese and carrying troops and supplies between Piraeus and Alexandria and Piraeus and Smyrna. But today Patris was coming home to Piraeus from a different route. The US 26th Regimental Combat team had sailed from Britain to Algiers. From Algiers it had been taken by train to Tripoli where Patris under heavy escort waited to take it to Piraeus. The five thousand Americans, the first large US combat unit to reach Greece would parade through the streets of Pireaus before settling to the barracks of the Greek 34th Infantry Regiment for the night. The luckier ones would be getting furlough the same night...
 
I still don’t think we can ignore the possibility of Russia using Turkey as a proxy to try and get at the Straits. Even if post-war negotiations fail and Greece manages to hold Constantinople, the big difference between OTL and TTL is that the Straits were in play during the war and there exists an “aggrieved” party with a claim (Turkey). The USSR can forcibly communize a Turkish rump state and then immediately start making noises about “Greek imperialism against the Turkish people in the Straits” and go from there, like what Tito did with North Macedonia IOTL.
I think it'd happen despite the irony. I think that even if we get west and east Turkey we'd get a Soviet Turkey at the end.
Welp the Bulgarian king dying is good and would allow for more effective attacks from the Wallies, and seeing Lawrence being the scourge of Turkey's national interests is always great. Iran being part of the WAllies' fight is also very interesting and I hope we see a more prosperous Iran ittl, and seeing American soldiers deployed in Greece is great considering the need to retake Greek and Yugoslavian land, and this news would be uplifting to the Greeks there.
 
So the well paid American troops laiden with lot's of dollars descent in to athens...i wonder what greek troops think of this after all iolt commonwealth troops hated the Americans because they had more money to spend to drink and to attract the girls as well....
 
while the allies had not failed to make a point at the surrender, the first of a German major formation in the war, being given to a French general
A thoroughly satisfying scene.

Victory in Tunisia had not come cheaply to the allies the British, French and Americans had lost over 45,000 men in the drive to Tunis and Bizerta alone. But the Germans and Italians had lost over 150,000 men including prisoners of war....
The "Tunisgrad" in TTL was smaller than in OTL, but the Axis are stretched even more thin.

Leninakan, Armenia, October 9th, 1942
I wonder when the recall order for at least some italian units will come. Sicily is now under threat of invasion and the Italians have a very active front in the Balkans, an Army at the Don and a lot of occupied land in the Balkans. Politically it is easier to recall the troops in the Caucasus Front since the main german effort is with Army Group South.

The US 26th Regimental Combat team had sailed from Britain to Algiers. From Algiers it had been taken by train to Tripoli where Patris under heavy escort waited to take it to Piraeus
I take it as the first part of the 1st Infantry... It will have nice symbolic value.

Seems we are reaching the tipping point in the East Med and Mesopotamia.
The tide has turned.

Taking into account the previous updates and this comment
Not just yet. On the coast the front is roughly on Sariseki, the modern Kanyon park. Of course a cynic might note who controls the sea and who not in the case of the Cilician front...
It seems that the Allies must have secured the coastal plain between the Amanus mountain and the sea. Indeed, a narrow front that close to the sea, invites all kind of visitors from 15'' shells down to QF 4''. So, it makes sense that the Allies after months of fighting, currently (October) have a broader front - they can properly deploy their armor. It is also worth mentioning that in Egypt there is the 10th Armoured as - what I guess - a theater reserve. So the situation allows the Allies to properly take advantage of their superiority. Give Slim and de Lattre an inch and they will take a mile. Allow them to fight in the cilician plains and what you get is a destroyed turkish field army with the remnants trying to hold the mountains passes of Taurus.
 
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