WI: US Civil War "Starts" January 9, 1861?

[Fearless Leader]

OTL: The Buchanan administration sends supplies and 200 reinforcements to Fort Sumter on board the civilian vessel Star of the West. Upon arriving at Charleston, they find that the navigational lights have all been put out forcing them to wait until morning to approach the fort. As they make their approach they are fired upon by an artillery battery on Morris Island manned by cadets from the Citadel. Ignoring the initial warning shot the Star of the West's captain John McGowan pushes forward as he fears that stopping would cause his ship to run aground in the narrow channel. More shots follow from Morris Island nearly hitting the pilot house, smokestack and rudder. McGowan also finds himself faced with the approach of a steamer and a schooner and shortly thereafter fire from Fort Moultrie. After several non-critical hits, McGowan opts to retreat narrowly avoiding grounding his vessel on two occasions.

After the engagement, Major Anderson sent a boat out to Charleston with the following message for Governor Pickens: "Two of your batteries fired this morning upon an unarmed vessel bearing the flag of my Government, as I have not been notified that war has been declared by South Carolina against the Government of the United States, I cannot think but that this hostile act was committed without your sanction or authority. Under that hope, and that alone, did I refrain from opening fire upon your batteries." What he did not add was that many of his men nearly opened fire on Carolinian positions when the Star of the West came under attack. Allegedly, one of the officer's wives had to be restrained from firing one of the big guns.

In spite of conflicts around Sumter and Pensacola the day after, a full blown conflict did not break out. Instead, the situation around Fort Sumter would continue to simmer for months until the Carolinian batteries now a part of the armed forces of the Confederate States of America and under the command of P.G.T. Beauregard to start the civil war.

BUT...

WI: The Carolinian batteries are a bit more accurate? Let's say that their shot which only grazed the Star of the West's rudder scores a decisive hit and damages it. The vessel now finds itself unable to change course and comes under increasing fire from both batteries at Morris point and Fort Moultrie. This in turn creates a near mutinous situation in Fort Sumter. Though extremely reluctant to engage, the dire plight of the Star of the West and the attitude of his men prompts Anderson to open fire in support of the damaged vessel. In response Carolinian batteries turn their attention from the crippled Star of the West and open fire on Fort Sumter...

What happens next?

A few things to keep in mind:

1. Unlike OTL, Beauregard isn't in charge and hasn't organized or trained the artillerymen. It's been two weeks since Anderson evacuated to Fort Sumter. I doubt there's going to be many or any heated cannonballs crashing into the woodwork of the fort. The floating battery that was so effective in OTL also hasn't been constructed yet.

2. Beauregard was short on ammunition in OTL's bombardment which took place months later. If anything the forces facing Fort Sumter are no better off. In OTL many of Governor Picken's military advisers pleaded with him to delay any attack on the Fort as long as possible due to their lack of preparation. Fort Sumter on the other hand has much more food but is facing a similar ammunition crisis as it did in OTL.

I would love to hear your thoughts but here's my take:

I agree with Pickens' military advisers, the earlier date of the engagement favors Anderson, particularly as all of the batteries that bombarded it in OTL hadn't been established yet. I'd wager that the garrison of Fort Sumter's first target is Fort Moultrie in order to ensure their ability to continue to support the Star of the West. This is probably followed up by counter-battery fire against Fort Johnson and the battery at Morris Island. Due to ammunition shortages there's probably an initial flurry of shots followed by more sporadic shooting throughout the day. Depending on how bad the damage is, McGowan might try to make repairs and carry out his mission, particularly if Anderson's men are successful in their efforts to silence Carolinian batteries at Fort Moultrie.

News from Charleston is obviously poorly met by Buchanan in Washington D.C. It's followed up by the destruction of 20,000 barrels of gunpowder and the retreat of the Federal garrison at Pensacola to Fort Pickens. Northern papers explode with accusations that the Confederacy fired upon an unarmed ship while Southern papers focus on the Government attempting to (and perhaps succeeding in) reinforcing Fort Sumter. Buchanan might want to try and de-escalate the situation around Fort Sumter, I'm just not sure if he has the ability to.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Very interesting idea. I'll have to think about it.

 

[Johnrankins]

OTL: The Buchanan administration sends supplies and 200 reinforcements to Fort Sumter on board the civilian vessel Star of the West. Upon arriving at Charleston, they find that the navigational lights have all been put out forcing them to wait until morning to approach the fort. As they make their approach they are fired upon by an artillery battery on Morris Island manned by cadets from the Citadel. Ignoring the initial warning shot the Star of the West's captain John McGowan pushes forward as he fears that stopping would cause his ship to run aground in the narrow channel. More shots follow from Morris Island nearly hitting the pilot house, smokestack and rudder. McGowan also finds himself faced with the approach of a steamer and a schooner and shortly thereafter fire from Fort Moultrie. After several non-critical hits, McGowan opts to retreat narrowly avoiding grounding his vessel on two occasions.

After the engagement, Major Anderson sent a boat out to Charleston with the following message for Governor Pickens: "Two of your batteries fired this morning upon an unarmed vessel bearing the flag of my Government, as I have not been notified that war has been declared by South Carolina against the Government of the United States, I cannot think but that this hostile act was committed without your sanction or authority. Under that hope, and that alone, did I refrain from opening fire upon your batteries." What he did not add was that many of his men nearly opened fire on Carolinian positions when the Star of the West came under attack. Allegedly, one of the officer's wives had to be restrained from firing one of the big guns.

In spite of conflicts around Sumter and Pensacola the day after, a full blown conflict did not break out. Instead, the situation around Fort Sumter would continue to simmer for months until the Carolinian batteries now a part of the armed forces of the Confederate States of America and under the command of P.G.T. Beauregard to start the civil war.

BUT...

WI: The Carolinian batteries are a bit more accurate? Let's say that their shot which only grazed the Star of the West's rudder scores a decisive hit and damages it. The vessel now finds itself unable to change course and comes under increasing fire from both batteries at Morris point and Fort Moultrie. This in turn creates a near mutinous situation in Fort Sumter. Though extremely reluctant to engage, the dire plight of the Star of the West and the attitude of his men prompts Anderson to open fire in support of the damaged vessel. In response Carolinian batteries turn their attention from the crippled Star of the West and open fire on Fort Sumter...

What happens next?

A few things to keep in mind:

1. Unlike OTL, Beauregard isn't in charge and hasn't organized or trained the artillerymen. It's been two weeks since Anderson evacuated to Fort Sumter. I doubt there's going to be many or any heated cannonballs crashing into the woodwork of the fort. The floating battery that was so effective in OTL also hasn't been constructed yet.

2. Beauregard was short on ammunition in OTL's bombardment which took place months later. If anything the forces facing Fort Sumter are no better off. In OTL many of Governor Picken's military advisers pleaded with him to delay any attack on the Fort as long as possible due to their lack of preparation. Fort Sumter on the other hand has much more food but is facing a similar ammunition crisis as it did in OTL.

I would love to hear your thoughts but here's my take:

I agree with Pickens' military advisers, the earlier date of the engagement favors Anderson, particularly as all of the batteries that bombarded it in OTL hadn't been established yet. I'd wager that the garrison of Fort Sumter's first target is Fort Moultrie in order to ensure their ability to continue to support the Star of the West. This is probably followed up by counter-battery fire against Fort Johnson and the battery at Morris Island. Due to ammunition shortages there's probably an initial flurry of shots followed by more sporadic shooting throughout the day. Depending on how bad the damage is, McGowan might try to make repairs and carry out his mission, particularly if Anderson's men are successful in their efforts to silence Carolinian batteries at Fort Moultrie.

News from Charleston is obviously poorly met by Buchanan in Washington D.C. It's followed up by the destruction of 20,000 barrels of gunpowder and the retreat of the Federal garrison at Pensacola to Fort Pickens. Northern papers explode with accusations that the Confederacy fired upon an unarmed ship while Southern papers focus on the Government attempting to (and perhaps succeeding in) reinforcing Fort Sumter. Buchanan might want to try and de-escalate the situation around Fort Sumter, I'm just not sure if he has the ability to.

The CSA is in deep trouble. They are less organized and trained. War begins almost immediately and the war begins early with few troops being able to stop even the very small US Army. Troops probably march into Virginia before it can even react. They won't be "invading" Virginia officially but merely marching through it on the way to North Carolina. It is unlikely Virginia will even attempt to secede with US troops on its soil and militia unready.

Buchanan calls for volunteers. He will get some. Assuming Virginia won't secede, neither will North Carolina or Tennessee. It would be a short war.

 

[Fearless Leader]

The CSA is in deep trouble. They are less organized and trained. War begins almost immediately and the war begins early with few troops being able to stop even the very small US Army. Troops probably march into Virginia before it can even react. They won't be "invading" Virginia officially but merely marching through it on the way to North Carolina. It is unlikely Virginia will even attempt to secede with US troops on its soil and militia unready.

Buchanan calls for volunteers. He will get some. Assuming Virginia won't secede, neither will North Carolina or Tennessee. It would be a short war.

Unfortunately for Buchanan, he only has 600 troops at his disposal. Almost the entire army is in Indian territory or along the Rio Grande in 1861. If Buchanan wanted to raise troops he would have to do the same thing Lincoln did and call on the militia. The effect of the reinforcement mission on the south should also be considered. Do the events of TTL accelerate secession in other states?

In OTL Buchanan tried to get Congress to increase defense spending in early 1861 but they were reluctant to give additional powers to a lame duck president. Do the events around Fort Sumter change enough minds?

 

[Johnrankins]

Unfortunately for Buchanan, he only has 600 troops at his disposal. Almost the entire army is in Indian territory or along the Rio Grande in 1861. If Buchanan wanted to raise troops he would have to do the same thing Lincoln did and call on the militia. The effect of the reinforcement mission on the south should also be considered. Do the events of TTL accelerate secession in other states?

In OTL Buchanan tried to get Congress to increase defense spending in early 1861 but they were reluctant to give additional powers to a lame duck president. Do the events around Fort Sumter change enough minds?

The difference is the South has no time to react. Those months were crucial for the South. He could and probably would pull troops from the west. Indian territory isn't as critical and you can use newly trained troops against them. You would have to call up the militia in any case but you would have troops in theater long before the South can train and orginize.

 

[stevej713]

Personally, I believe Buchanan would have done very little. This action would surely have provoked the same public anger that the attack on Fort Sumter did, but Buchanan probably would not have acted knowing that he was almost out anyway. The most I could see him doing is declaring an insurrection from the State of South Carolina alone, but letting Lincoln handle the mustering of volunteers.

The CSA is in deep trouble. They are less organized and trained. War begins almost immediately and the war begins early with few troops being able to stop even the very small US Army. Troops probably march into Virginia before it can even react. They won't be "invading" Virginia officially but merely marching through it on the way to North Carolina. It is unlikely Virginia will even attempt to secede with US troops on its soil and militia unready.

Buchanan calls for volunteers. He will get some. Assuming Virginia won't secede, neither will North Carolina or Tennessee. It would be a short war.

There's no way in hell Buchanan would agree to such a provocative action. Besides, it is impossible for the army to march into Virginia "before it can react". News of the US Army on the march would be in every newspaper and shouted from every church steeple. Mobs would stop the tiny US Army, or worse, cut it off from the North. An aggressive Federal attack on a Southern state would have the same effect as Lincoln's call for volunteers: more states would secede.

 

[Johnrankins]

Personally, I believe Buchanan would have done very little. This action would surely have provoked the same public anger that the attack on Fort Sumter did, but Buchanan probably would not have acted knowing that he was almost out anyway. The most I could see him doing is declaring an insurrection from the State of South Carolina alone, but letting Lincoln handle the mustering of volunteers.

Perhaps, but I think that public pressure would get to him swiftly. Lame duck or not he would be under tremendous pressure to do something.

 

[DougM]

I am still not convinced that Buchanan was of a mind to try and stop the states from leaving, He seamed more inclined to let them go.
I think the more interesting question would be what happens if the states leave with 3 years left of his term.
Once Lincoln is elected Buchanan is honor bound to do what Lincoln wants done. Politics were different then. The Lame Duck President didn’t try to do as much as he could before the new guy got in, they tended to do little and to view it as a care taker kind of thing. (In general)

 

[Dante]

Unfortunately for Buchanan, he only has 600 troops at his disposal. Almost the entire army is in Indian territory or along the Rio Grande in 1861. If Buchanan wanted to raise troops he would have to do the same thing Lincoln did and call on the militia. The effect of the reinforcement mission on the south should also be considered. Do the events of TTL accelerate secession in other states?

In OTL Buchanan tried to get Congress to increase defense spending in early 1861 but they were reluctant to give additional powers to a lame duck president. Do the events around Fort Sumter change enough minds?

I'm thinking that the deep south seceding is a justifiable cause for an increase in defense spending, lame duck he may be, you just can't ignore this crisis going on. With the upper south probably staying in the Union many in Congress would probably hope that enough of a show of force is enough for the rebels to re-think.

 

[Fearless Leader]

The difference is the South has no time to react. Those months were crucial for the South. He could and probably would pull troops from the west. Indian territory isn't as critical and you can use newly trained troops against them. You would have to call up the militia in any case but you would have troops in theater long before the South can train and orginize.

The issue here is that Buchanan wants to try and suppress the rebellion ASAP. Pulling troops back from the west took months in TTL that Buchanan didn't have.

I am still not convinced that Buchanan was of a mind to try and stop the states from leaving, He seamed more inclined to let them go.
I think the more interesting question would be what happens if the states leave with 3 years left of his term.
Once Lincoln is elected Buchanan is honor bound to do what Lincoln wants done. Politics were different then. The Lame Duck President didn’t try to do as much as he could before the new guy got in, they tended to do little and to view it as a care taker kind of thing. (In general)

From what I read of Buchanan's correspondence and speeches he was focused on trying to stop secession but he was focused on doing so through a compromise like the ones proposed by Crittenden or Corwin. One thing comes through again and again though, Buchanan believed that any attack on Fort Sumter would require a military response. Mind you much of this rhetoric comes from late February - early April. Buchanan fully supported Lincoln's decision to call for volunteers.

Personally, I believe Buchanan would have done very little. This action would surely have provoked the same public anger that the attack on Fort Sumter did, but Buchanan probably would not have acted knowing that he was almost out anyway. The most I could see him doing is declaring an insurrection from the State of South Carolina alone, but letting Lincoln handle the mustering of volunteers.

There's no way in hell Buchanan would agree to such a provocative action. Besides, it is impossible for the army to march into Virginia "before it can react". News of the US Army on the march would be in every newspaper and shouted from every church steeple. Mobs would stop the tiny US Army, or worse, cut it off from the North. An aggressive Federal attack on a Southern state would have the same effect as Lincoln's call for volunteers: more states would secede.

Perhaps, but I think that public pressure would get to him swiftly. Lame duck or not he would be under tremendous pressure to do something.

One really interesting wrinkle comes from Buchanan's unique interpretation of the Constitution. Notwithstanding his handling of Dredd Scott, Buchanan saw himself as preserving the constitution and attempted to err on the safe side ( I know ). Unlike Lincoln he did not believe that the POTUS had the authority to call on the militia without the express authority of Congress. At the time this was seen as a grey area, Buchanan later excused Lincoln's call due to the exigencies of the situation and the fact that Congress wasn't in session. On January 8, 1861, before the Star of the West reached Charleston, Buchanan explicitly asked Congress to pass a law giving him more authority to call on the militia in the face of South Carolinian secession. In OTL the Republican dominated House of Representatives considered three potential laws that would clarified the POTUS' authority and ability to call on state militias for the Federal Government but as the crisis around the Star of the West dissipated it didn't proceed.

I'm thinking that the deep south seceding is a justifiable cause for an increase in defense spending, lame duck he may be, you just can't ignore this crisis going on. With the upper south probably staying in the Union many in Congress would probably hope that enough of a show of force is enough for the rebels to re-think.

I agree with you but I think Buchanan's attitudes towards his vision of the constitution complicate matters. I think if the above events occur, Buchanan is going to once again ask the House to give him the explicit authority to call for volunteers. In TTL the House of Representatives is going to have no choice but to pass it and they probably will seeing that they don't benefit by delaying. Where it gets really interesting is in the Senate. South Carolina's two senators left right after the election but all the other Deep South and Upper South states are still there. Though some of the Northern Democrats might side with the GOP in supporting the bills, the Democrats could very well filibuster any bill empowering Buchanan particularly if senators from the Slave States delay the abandonment of their posts. This would create a really interesting situation that could see at least the temporary end of the Senate Filibuster and perhaps more.

Events around Fort Sumter could further complicate matters especially as ammunition stocks run low on both sides within a few days of the initi. As the bill "allowing" Buchanan to call on volunteers works its way through Congress, Buchanan might be able to negotiate a ceasefire around Charleston. Though Buchanan asking Congress for the ability to call for volunteers and getting a more positive response will ratchet up tensions, it won't be as bad as Lincoln's call was in OTL. I think the parties that tried to work towards a compromise might see this as a last ditch attempt to preserve the Union and go for it. Though Buchanan will be torn, I think a lot of his rhetoric about civil war was driven by hindsight in OTL. If the Virginians and others can get Pickens to agree to a ceasefire I can see Buchanan going for it and hoping that he can salvage things at the last minute. Pickens on the other hand is going to be in hot water with the other leaders of the Confederacy who in OTL applied considerable pressure on him to do precisely the opposite of what he has done.

All that being said, I don't think Buchanan's going to put all of his eggs in one basket in TTL. Firing on Fort Sumter and the Star of the West deeply impacted him in OTL and I think he's going to see war as a nigh inevitability. Though he's going to jump at one more chance to stop it, I'd wager that he also sends out explicit orders to other arsenals and forts in slave holding states to ensure that the rebels get their hands on as little federal property as possible. Whether these orders get to their intended destinations is another matter, but I think they're probably sent out as soon as news of the attack on Fort Sumter gets out. Remember that in OTL Buchanan sent orders to the staff of the Apalachicola arsenal to destroy gunpowder and ammunition stocks there on January 4, 1861. (This telegram was intercepted prompting Florida State militia to seize the arsenal) Realistically, this probably doesn't affect seizures in Georgia, Louisiana, or Texas as getting the orders to the arsenals would take time, the officers in charge might not obey them (Gen. David Twiggs), and these state's secession might be accelerated by the events of TTL. However, I could definitely see these orders changing events in Missouri, Arkansas, North Carolina and most importantly Virginia. Of course if say the Arkansas state militia tries to seize the Little Rock Arsenal in late January/Early February only to see most of the stocks destroyed, it could have a profoundly negative impact on the Peace negotiations. Engagements around Norfolk and Harpers Ferry are also possible IMO.

In OTL Buchanan called up parts of the District of Columbia's militia to help secure Lincoln's inauguration. I believe he might have the authority to call it due to DC's relationship with the Federal Government.

I wonder how all of this will impact the formation of the Confederate States' government? Does Toombs avoid his bender and subsequent reputation as a drunkard to become POTCS? Does another candidate emerge from the woodwork?

Tennessee's secession in TTL might not happen. In OTL one of the big reasons that the second vote on secession succeeded when the first did not was that the Tennessee Whigs/Constitutional Unionists including John Bell rapidly became disillusioned with the GOP. They had hoped initially to receive patronage appointments but when it became clear that Lincoln wasn't going to give them any they threw their lot in with the secessionists. In TTL events might force the issue weeks earlier than OTL which might lead to Bell and others choosing to remain in the Union.

 

[dmg86]

The issue is that either is ready to fight a war so you would probably see a period of mobilization and attempts to get the border states on your side. The weather will also play a role so it would be April or May anyway before anything can really be done militarily.