After reading up a bit on the Spanish East Indies, as well as early Filipino nationalism, I've wondered... What if somehow, for instance via avoiding the Spanish-American War, Spain retains control over the Philippines? Or, more accurately, portions of the Philippines. Iloilo in Western Visayas for instance was very loyal to Spain and most of the revolutionary activity was limited to Luzon after all, so could Spanish control have continued in Visayas and, say, the Zamboanga Peninsula, as well as Basilan Island?
WI: Spain only loses Luzon in the 1890s
- Thread starter Iserlohn
- Start date
Why exactly? I'm not well versed in Philippine history, but were there any factors that would have enable Spain to keep the outlying islands of a distant colony while losing the main one?
If the Spanish lose Luzon, there's no chance in hell for them in holding onto Visayas.
As for loyalty to Spain, that's true in some provinces in Visayas (Cebu & Iloilo), at least that was how it was perceived. But in reality, it was the ruling Principalia who were loyal to the Crown because their interests depend on it. The peasants? Not so much.
A major Spanish defeat in Luzon might convince these hacienderos that Spanish power is already crumbling, forcing them to jump ship, like what happened in OTL.
As for loyalty to Spain, that's true in some provinces in Visayas (Cebu & Iloilo), at least that was how it was perceived. But in reality, it was the ruling Principalia who were loyal to the Crown because their interests depend on it. The peasants? Not so much.
A major Spanish defeat in Luzon might convince these hacienderos that Spanish power is already crumbling, forcing them to jump ship, like what happened in OTL.
It was one of the things that the Americans were considering for the Philippines - and it was only to have Luzon. - the people of Luzon are like the people of East Coast in attitude.
I think if Luzon is ceded out, Luzon will be more better because there will be less discrimination in that place since there will be no immigrants there and the Luzonians will have their own state, people like Gloria Diaz would be the most happy in that situation.
I think the people in Luzon could survive without the Visayans and Mindanaoans since during the time of Majapahit the people of Luzon did not give a shit about the Visayans, their friends/trade partners are the Javanese.
I think if Luzon is ceded out, Luzon will be more better because there will be less discrimination in that place since there will be no immigrants there and the Luzonians will have their own state, people like Gloria Diaz would be the most happy in that situation.
I think the people in Luzon could survive without the Visayans and Mindanaoans since during the time of Majapahit the people of Luzon did not give a shit about the Visayans, their friends/trade partners are the Javanese.
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Loyalty is dependent of how the Spanish born in Spain staying in the Philippines, treat everyone else in the Philippines.
The principalia is not that loyal given the right circumstance like otl 1898.
I even consider aguinaldo and Rizal, principalia due to their and their families political and economic influence.
there is a possibility that spanish would be expelled in Luzon and retain visayas given the right circumstance. The Spanish can Retain visyays and Mindanao until Luzon buys many cheap torpedo boat or destroyers to face 2 protected cruisers, 4 unprotected cruisers of the Spanish Asia armada roaming around visyayas. Of course this is under the assumption that those 6 remain in Spanish hands and not taken by the rebels or rebelled themselves.
Basing on my computation on the otl 1899 budget of the Philippines, given how cheap and small the destroyers were back then, the Philippines can buy/produce 3 destroyers per year war if you allocated half of the military budget for naval procurement.
The principalia is not that loyal given the right circumstance like otl 1898.
I even consider aguinaldo and Rizal, principalia due to their and their families political and economic influence.
there is a possibility that spanish would be expelled in Luzon and retain visayas given the right circumstance. The Spanish can Retain visyays and Mindanao until Luzon buys many cheap torpedo boat or destroyers to face 2 protected cruisers, 4 unprotected cruisers of the Spanish Asia armada roaming around visyayas. Of course this is under the assumption that those 6 remain in Spanish hands and not taken by the rebels or rebelled themselves.
Basing on my computation on the otl 1899 budget of the Philippines, given how cheap and small the destroyers were back then, the Philippines can buy/produce 3 destroyers per year war if you allocated half of the military budget for naval procurement.
You forget that most of the administrative infrastructure is in Manila. You lose Manila, you lose the Philippines.
This is assuming we are not talking about what the OP wants. I don't know how you got the Americans when the OP never even mentioned USA presence in ATL.
Not necessarily. Losing Manila or Luzon means you lose bulk of Spanish indies taxes but not necessarily losing the capability to hold the other islands.
The lack of Spanish navy in otl meant that the people in Luzon can project their power in the other islands without having to buy a modern navy.
If we are basing with the OP, the existence of the Spanish navy means, that power projection is limited to Luzon. The other islands doesn't have the population nor the economy to expel Spain on their own and keep the Spanish out.
If you are the colonial master, you can cut losses by accepting Luzon independence or being a lost cause and focusing instead of the 2/3 area of whatever remains, with a smaller population, manageable.
The Spaniards preferred losing the entire Philippine colony if in case Spain only loses Luzon rather than clinging Visayas and Mindanao. The administrative apparatus of Philippine colony rests within Manila and once Manila is lost, Spain should kiss the Philippines goodbye.
It is the Spanish people who is the apparatus not the place. Manila is not even the geographic center of the Philippines.
Will there be a chance the Spanish leave Spanish East Indies if they Luzon? Yes. If the Spanish decide that managing the remaining land is not worth their time nor earning some more cash.
Is it 100% ? no, it is not. There is still money to squeeze from the colony. The advantage of maintaining visayas and Mindanao, they are a collection of smaller islands, each of those islands have a small population.
I think a good otl example of this is Mexico and Cuba.separated by water, more wealth from Mexico with Mexico being the center, but Spain kept Cuba until 1898 even if they lost Mexico decades earlier.