On June 4th 1989, the CCP ordered a massacre of student protestera in Beijin, killing thousands of people. The POD here is that the day after the massacre, nearly half a million students and workers march in remembrance of those who died. The PLA massacred them again here, killing 25,000 people. This then leads to marches in nearly every major city, with statues of Mao being ripped down, some waving ROC and US flags, while burning PRC ones. The PLA is ordered to open fire after a week, but around half of the PLA mutinies, leading to a Second Chinese Civil War, The coastal cities are quickly secured, as well as Beijing, with the CPC relocating to Xi’an. In the span of a few months, West German, American, and British weapons are found amongst the rebels. The ROC returns triumphantly to the mainland. What happens next?
WI: Second Chinese Civil War in 1989?
- Thread starter SirHalifax
- Start date
The majority of the industrial might and population is in the hands of the rebels. The CCP's only option would be nuclear weapons but that would have catastrophic consequences internationally and internally regarding the loyalty of troops currently under their command.
I could see it divided China with the CCP going full North Korea and planning to retake the rebellious provinces sometime in the future.
I could see it divided China with the CCP going full North Korea and planning to retake the rebellious provinces sometime in the future.
How will the CPC react to the fact the the US is involved, and how does the USSR react?
They will not be happy the United States is involved the Soviet Union would pretend to be upset but remember over half their Army was located on the Chinese border.
The Soviet Union would breathe a sigh of relief, sure they would sell the Chinese Communist weapons, but no credit cash only the Soviet economy was struggling they could use the influx of cash to help rebuild their economy.
Barry Bull
Donor
While the coastal cities do contain a lot of population, the PRC actually developed significant industry capacity in Western China to cater for the situation that the Eastern part of China being rendered inoperable during the height of Cold Wars when a nuclear decapitation strike by USSR is possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Front_(China)
kholieken
Banned
- the coastal cities fall under sieges by loyal Red Army who had peasant support, and then fall one by one.
- CPC howling about foreign interference and got support from nationalistic Chinese on all class.
- Radical student movement and urban labourers lost support from most Chinese populations and subjected to massive purges
- PLA launch massive attack on Taiwan, even if crossing is impossible (because US navy) massive damage happen to Taiwanese infrastructure and people
- CPC would purges itself and PLA from treacherous urban population and deliberately building power base in rural areas. All PLA base relocated to rural hinterlands.
- CPC howling about foreign interference and got support from nationalistic Chinese on all class.
- Radical student movement and urban labourers lost support from most Chinese populations and subjected to massive purges
- PLA launch massive attack on Taiwan, even if crossing is impossible (because US navy) massive damage happen to Taiwanese infrastructure and people
- CPC would purges itself and PLA from treacherous urban population and deliberately building power base in rural areas. All PLA base relocated to rural hinterlands.
Barry Bull
Donor
PLA launching massive attack on Taiwan in 1989? With what? I truly doubt the PRC in such situation would waste the precious few nuclear ICBMs/IRBMs to waste Taiwan and the then Second Artillery Corps was but a shadow of the much more advanced force today.
PLA air force was at a relatively low point in the late 1980s in terms of cadre quality, but the worst had yet to come (i.e. the 1990s). In terms of aircraft quality, the PLAAF and ROCAF remained relatively on par as the 3rd Gen aircraft of ROCAF was still being developed (IDF) or not yet purchased (F-16 and Mirage 2000).
Probably also a power struggle between factions within the CPC leads to a Civil War.
I was told from an alternate history Facebook group that the commander of the Second Artillery Corps would use nuclear weapons against PLA units that would side with the pro-democracy protesters. If the CCP did authorize the use of nuclear weapons, then it would just hasten the People's Republic of China's collapse and would ensure in the worst humanitarian crisis in history as thousands and thousands of Chinese refugees would escape to the neighboring countries. Hong Kong and Macau would be on lockdown, they won't be taking refugees due to the lack of space. The USSR, Korea, Japan, and Alaska would be probably contaminated with fall out.
Keep note that during the OTL 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the appearance of the USS Independence and the USS Nimitz with their respective carrier strike groups detered the Chinese from attacking. The PLA walked with the tail behind them, fully acknowledging that they could not take on the might of the United States Navy. Hence this is why we saw the PLA-N take up modernization by the 1990s to present day in order to catch up with the USN.
ROCAF did not operate the F-16 and the Mirage 2000 as of 1989. These would only come around the 1990s. What they did use was the F-5A/B which they purchased from the United States. The homegrown F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo had its first flight on May 28, 1989, just when the protests and sit-in at Beijing was occuring. It was only introduced in January 1994, though if necessary they would have been introduced to combat immediately.
At this point, the ROC Armed Forces were superior compared to the PLA. They had American equipment. The PLA-N was still brown-water at this period and any crossings into the Taiwan Strait would be slaughtered by the ROCN which has two Hai Shih-class (ex-Cutlass-class/Tench-class) submarines (ROCS Hai Shih and ROCS Hai Pao) and two Chien Lung-class submarines (based on the Dutch Zwaardvis-class submarines; ROCS Hai Lung and ROCS Hai Hui) purchased from The Netherlands in 1986. These two subs were superior to the Ming-class and the Romeo-class the PLA-N used at this period.
Keep note that during the OTL 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the appearance of the USS Independence and the USS Nimitz with their respective carrier strike groups detered the Chinese from attacking. The PLA walked with the tail behind them, fully acknowledging that they could not take on the might of the United States Navy. Hence this is why we saw the PLA-N take up modernization by the 1990s to present day in order to catch up with the USN.
ROCAF did not operate the F-16 and the Mirage 2000 as of 1989. These would only come around the 1990s. What they did use was the F-5A/B which they purchased from the United States. The homegrown F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo had its first flight on May 28, 1989, just when the protests and sit-in at Beijing was occuring. It was only introduced in January 1994, though if necessary they would have been introduced to combat immediately.
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So there might be a split within the CPC leading to different Party factions power struggle. Regional CPC leaders might also do theur own thing and soon the disunity leads to a Second Warlord era-possibly with nukes. The International Community might be very worried of a Civil War in a nuclear country. The British would be very concerend about the situation for they still hold Hong Kong as a colony. Also Majority ethnic regions like Tibet and East Turkestan (Xiangjing) might also be inspired to rise up once again.
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Yes, there is uprisings and riots in both Tibet and East Turkestan. And the Hui people are on the edge of revolt. Both sides are giving no quarter, and both sides are calling each other “traitors against China”. The CPC is holding itself together, and only small, regional warlords are near from seceding. The CCP made a lot of reforms during the 50‘s and 60’s, so I doubt there would be any warlordism.
Civil wars are extremely hard to predict, particularly as so much depends on an early phase where one of the biggest factors is people wanting to avoid being on the losing side and so joining with whoever they see as likely to win. As you've described this scenario, it seems like the CPC has done quite badly at this initial phase, which bodes ill for its future. Still, if they can stabilize the situation at all, it becomes important who can best hold their faction together. The CPC needs to keep any further defections to a minimum. On the other hand, there are likely to be power struggles between the ROC and the CPC defectors; they need to find ways to work together smoothly. So I think things are still in very much a place where it could go lots of different ways.
Tibet and Xinjiang will likely break off if given any chance to do so while the Yellow and perhaps Yangtze rivers then become international boundaries. Look for a *very* big Asian Tiger economy or two to emerge while northernmost China remains at least nominally Communist and perhaps irredentist.
I highly doubt that. A nuclear civil war isn't going to magically make any part of China richer, and even if some sort of South China managed to come out of the conflict relatively unscathed the shear disruption of independence and trying to establish a stable government and new trade relations will mean that it'd be unlikely to get anywhere near China's economic growth rate during that period iOTL.