Goldstein
Banned
That is certainly true. Hm, now I'm wondering if Dadism (and subsequently Surrealism) would be affected at all by Picasso's absence? FWIG, the Zurich clubs were primarily influenced by futurism and East European Symbolism anyway, so it could well produce the same kind of stuff.
That said, German Dada certainly would be changed -- Wikipedia tells us that Max Ernst was "profoundly" influenced by Picasso (as well as Van Gogh and Gaugin) after attending a 1912 exhibition in Cologne, and that Francis Picabia was heavily influenced by Pablo as well, along with Matisse. Actually, didn't Picaba and Duchamp essentially found Dadaism in New York? So that's another way the early school would be affected.
Damn Picasso. Why did you have to be so influential? You're right, maybe Dadaism would be somewhat different in its direct manifestations, I just don't think Surrealism would change drastically, as its linkable relationship with Cubism is much more indirect.