WI: No Battle of Atlantic, no Battle of Britain

[King Midas]

What if Hitler had said to Churchill: "Fine, sit on your island, and rotate!"

Put some air/sea forces on the West Wall to challenge Britain's control of the Channel and the North Sea, and otherwise ignore them. No Uboat blockade. No effort to bomb Britain into submission. Just consider the island a huge self sustained POW camp, and move on.

Will this make the war harder for Japan (in the Pacific) and Italy in the Med?

What effect will it have on US entry into the war?

 

[Shaby]

Such situation will make it much harder for Japan andItaly. British could send everything they spared by not having to fight any of the battles can be sent to MidEast or Far East. Planes, ships, tanks, you name it. Anyway, ignoring Britain is impossible for Hitler. As long as he has means to attack the Island, he will.

 

[Dable]

Italy: it depends on whether this decision is pre or post DOW by Italy on Britain.Pre DOW Italy would have to follow Germany,but post? Italy would be in a world of hurt,Taranto but with three times the aircraft,Malta with ten squadrons of Beaufighters sinking anything Italian and ten squadrons of Spitfires for air defence,by the end of 1941 every Italian soldier in Africa will be dead or in a POW camp.
Japan:as tensions increased throughout 1941 Malaya and Singapore would be significantly reinforced with combat experienced troops and an overall commander moved in from the middle east.If Singapore fell it would only be after six months of hard fighting which would have cost Japan probably six divisions,250,000 tons of merchant shipping,and a very large piece of the IJN.
Without a submarine blockade Bomber Command would be six to nine months ahead and by early 1942 causing enough damage in Germany that they would have to reply in someway.With the Luftwaffe occupied in Russia the only way they could would be with U-Boats which would bring the USA into the war by the start of 1943 at the latest.

 

[Genmotty]

Fine, sit on your island, and rotate!

...And the Generals in the Wehrmatch raise their eyebrows and seriously wonder for Hitlers mental health.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Hitler can't do this. It's completely out of character for him.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I've seen it sugested that this would have been the best thing for Hitler to do, I'm not sure I agree but the Hypothysis went something like this.

After the fall of France Hitler unilaterally declares the war between Britain and Germany over and releases all British P.O.Ws.

This puts Churchill in a loose loose position.

If he accepts the new status quo then all the British treasure and lives lost over the last 9 months have been for nothing and his repeated warnings since 1933 are seen as the demented ramblings of a paranoid and senile old man. Moral in Britain collapses, the government falls, the Commonwealth shatters into various factionsand Hitler now has a free hand in Eastern Europe.

On the otherhand if Churchill elects to continue the war even after the British POWs are returned then Britain is seen by the world as the agressors and access to trade and loans vanishes. He also faces the very real threat of civil unrest. The Government falls the Commonwealth shatters into various factions and Hitler has a free hand in Eastern Europe. There is also a possible risk that air raids ordered by the British Mad Dog Churchill when they cause substantial civilian casualties could bring the Americans in on the Germans side. If that unlikely event were to happen then Britain would be faced with both unrestricted submarine warfare and the threat of the combined fleets of Italy, Germany, the United States as well as possible actions by the French and Japanese fleets.

 

[theman from the ministery]

On the otherhand if Churchill elects to continue the war even after the British POWs are returned then Britain is seen by the world as the agressors and access to trade and loans vanishes. He also faces the very real threat of civil unrest. The Government falls the Commonwealth shatters into various factions and Hitler has a free hand in Eastern Europe. There is also a possible risk that air raids ordered by the British Mad Dog Churchill when they cause substantial civilian casualties could bring the Americans in on the Germans side. If that unlikely event were to happen then Britain would be faced with both unrestricted submarine warfare and the threat of the combined fleets of Italy, Germany, the United States as well as possible actions by the French and Japanese fleets.

....................

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I did say possible risk and unlikely event.

Consider this to the rest of the world the war is over, the cause of Polish freedom doomed. Europe has been through a storm of fire in which countless lives have been lost. Britain and France have been defeated and taken four and a bit (Luxemburg) down with them but it's over now. New maps have been drawn new treaties signed and the lights have turned on again.

Then in the Autumn with no apparant justification Churchill turns Bomber Command loose on Western Europe and re-imposes the blockade. Men, Women and Children have been killed in their beds. Ships persuing their lawfull trade have been intercepted and siezed and if they refused to stop sunk. Kennedy is telling the US State department that Churchill delusional and sending terrorists against his peaceful nieghbours both in the air and on the ground. (SOE) Goebols is showing the worlds press around every bombsight (and a few that have been arranged). Sooner or latter a school, hospital, church or consulate is going to be bombed (again not necessarily by the British but made to look that way). For months this goes on and the German Government keep telling the world they have no reason to fight the British people and the pressure builds. One event after another untill the International community are manueverd into issuing an ultimatum. Cease all hostile action, deliver Churchill and his cohorts to the League of Nations or some other body demobilise the Army and Surrender the Navy and Airforce to international controled internment or face war against the civillised world and a total blockade.

Like I said it's extreemly unlikely but if Churchill keeps attacking a country that claims to be art peace and ignoring the rest of the world the time comes when action would have to be taken. Of course that all asumes that in the sequence of events described civil disturbances don't bring the government down. The King does at least in theory have the right to sack the Prime Minister and dismiss Parliament triggering an election. The Last time the monarchs power to sack the government was exercised was in Australia in I think 1976. If I remember right the Govenor General sacked the Premier of New South Wales using the Royal Authority.

 

[King Midas]

...And the Generals in the Wehrmatch raise their eyebrows and seriously wonder for Hitlers mental health.

...by the end of 1941 every Italian soldier in Africa will be dead or in a POW camp.

And these significantly differ from our TL how?

Seriously, most of the troops in Libya in 1940 wound up as POWs. The ones who fought beside the Afrika Korps were replacements of the original Libyan armies.

I've met Bevin Alexander, and heard his lecture on his "Southern Route." I find it...interesting...and will admit the Axis could have made more of an effort in the Med, but I'm leery of the logistics involved from the Levant to the Caucasus.

This idea is more of an Anti Med strategy. Considering just how much use the Italians turned out to be, WI operation Compass was the end of North African campaign?

 

[King Midas]

Without a submarine blockade Bomber Command would be six to nine months ahead and by early 1942 causing enough damage in Germany that they would have to reply in someway.

I'm looking at fighting the Battle of Britain over France. If the Luftwaffe had a hard time replacing pilots in the BoB, wouldn't the smaller RAF have an even worse problem?

@Peg leg Pom: You are much more eloquent than I. <Thumb up smiley>

 

[juanml82]

That's why the RAF bombed at night: far less accurate, crews return home.
Nobody is declaring war on the UK if Hitler (of all people) keeps saying: "we want peace! we want peace!". Even if the UK looses the "moral high ground", that won't stop WWII.
And, since war with the UK would continue, what can the Germans win by letting the British be? Sure, a lot of things could have been improved with hindsight, but that's not a benefit anyone has.

 

[MUC]

What would happen in the Balkans and North Africa in such a TL?

 

[King Midas]

And, since war with the UK would continue, what can the Germans win by letting the British be?

IMO the US isolationist movement was a lot stronger than is agreed upon by the consensus of this board. I'm wondering if no Battle of the Atlantic and a stronger diplomacy on the part of the 3rd Reich would keep the US out of the war, or at least keep us out until the war in Europe had been decided.

 

[Riain]

Britain was for too strong economically and militarily for Germany to just ignore, Britain was back on the continent in Greece in Corps strength a mere 10 months after being ejected from France. There is no way that Hitler can ignore such a powerful country.

 

[King Midas]

Britain was for too strong economically and militarily for Germany to just ignore, Britain was back on the continent in Greece in Corps strength a mere 10 months after being ejected from France. .

And became essentially an OTL Sea Lion. The CW sent a force to Greece, who's main effect was to flood German POW camps.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Lets assume AH does this!

Germany (and AH did NOT want war in the West - war in the East was the goal (and Germany would have been happy enough if It had NOt to support Italy in Greece and Africa - thus having a secure Southern Border). An allied, but at peace Italy would have been worth more than Italy IN the war. (sure UK could have Attacked through greece or Yugoslavia, but the UK would have brought those countries into the war)

This does not allow UK immediately to strip teh Home Island of much men and machines - after all Germany could attack later.

It might free SOME assets for NA /Greece and NA, but the same holds true for Germany (i think due to shorter supply lines this would benefit Germany MORE than UK)

IMHO you need a POD before Italy attacked the Allies. And you have to prevent that attack...

 

[MattII]

If anyone thinks Britain is backing down they're sorely mistaken, and even if they did, there's a million-and-one ways of exploiting that neutrality to the detriment of the Germans.

 

[King Midas]

What would happen in the Balkans and North Africa in such a TL?

Sorry, missed your post earlier.

The big question is Italy in the war. If AH decides to go with my idea and Italy is not in the war, Bennie will probably do nothing. If Italy has joined in the war, then Italian North Africa falls fairly soon.

If Italy hasn't attacked France, there might be a side war (like Japan vs China) between Italy and Greece. I doubt either Germany or Britain will intervene in that case. The Greeks did quite well all by themselves in OTL, it would just be a further embarrassment to Bennie.

 

[Shaby]

It might free SOME assets for NA /Greece and NA, but the same holds true for Germany (i think due to shorter supply lines this would benefit Germany MORE than UK)

Absence of U-boats and The Blitz will have a major positive impact on Britain.

 

[StevoJH]

Absence of U-boats and The Blitz will have a major positive impact on Britain.

Nothing to prevent their own exports, and without losses in men and machinery less of the UK's economy has to be turned towards war production.

Most importantly though, no need for 'lend-lease', Ie.Let them do our fighting for us and then we will send them the bill after they are exhausted from fighting.

No different to how the empire worked for hundreds of years though.