WI: Israel does not withdraw fully from Sinai

Is it possible that Israel does not fully withdraw from Sinai, maybe even involving the permanent annexation of parts of it? IOTL Israel of course withdrew from the peninsula in the early 1980s.

Here are two maps which might be helpful, the first one showing the stages of Israel's evacuation of the area, the second one showing the MFO zones on the Sinai after 1982.

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Would for instance Israel keeping sectors 1 to 4 from Zone C be an option?
And if that were to happen, is peace with Egypt still possible? What other consequences would that have?
 
Well, what would be the reason for wanting to keep them? Is there anything there worth having that's not simply strategic depth?
 
Well, what would be the reason for wanting to keep them? Is there anything there worth having that's not simply strategic depth?

Oil, beaches.

But for Israelis in the 70s and 80s, strategic depth was enough. Hell, strategic depth is probably about 80% of the reason that Israel's still in the West Bank.
 
Well, what would be the reason for wanting to keep them? Is there anything there worth having that's not simply strategic depth?

there was a rather large air base there, the Israeli raid of Iraq's nuclear program in 1981 was launched from Sinai, an act that the Israelis were scared would end Israeli-Egyptian peace and kill the handover, but felt that the risk of nuclear Iraq was great enough to spoil relations with Egypt and maybe the US as well.
 
I'd argue in the context of the diplomatic developments of the late 1970's and early 1980's that Israel keeping the Sinai is near impossible. Not only does it blatantly scuttle the Camp David Accords (since regaining the Sinai was a major Egyptian objective and was a direct cause of the Yom Kippur War), but it really throws a kink into Israel's partnership with the US (since the US directly brokered the peace agreement) and just generally worsens Israel's situation in the region.

Not to mention that the Sinai Peninsula has a large and occasionally restless Bedouin population so the IDF would be faced with a territory larger than Israel proper to have to constantly police and patrol.

So yeah, a net drain for Israel really: hostile populace, no rapprochement with Egypt, and a big prolonged occupation effort to suck in manpower and money in a way that makes Lebanon look tame (and Israel actually had allies in Lebanon so this is even worse).
 
I'd argue in the context of the diplomatic developments of the late 1970's and early 1980's that Israel keeping the Sinai is near impossible. Not only does it blatantly scuttle the Camp David Accords (since regaining the Sinai was a major Egyptian objective and was a direct cause of the Yom Kippur War), but it really throws a kink into Israel's partnership with the US (since the US directly brokered the peace agreement) and just generally worsens Israel's situation in the region.

Not to mention that the Sinai Peninsula has a large and occasionally restless Bedouin population so the IDF would be faced with a territory larger than Israel proper to have to constantly police and patrol.

So yeah, a net drain for Israel really: hostile populace, no rapprochement with Egypt, and a big prolonged occupation effort to suck in manpower and money in a way that makes Lebanon look tame (and Israel actually had allies in Lebanon so this is even worse).

That what I meant above, but didn't explain in detail. If, for some reason, Egypt went sideways and decided that they wanted to spit on the deal and walk away, I'm sure Israel would want to develop the place for all it was worth, but the political advantages of giving it up outweighed the practical benefits of keeping it by a lot.
 
All of the Sinai needs to be returned for a peace deal with Egypt. If there is no peace deal, then there is no reason to return any of it.

I can't see any plausible scenario where Israel would return most of the Sinai, but keep some of it. It would be a very different world if such a scenario was plausible.
 
Not to mention that the Sinai Peninsula has a large and occasionally restless Bedouin population so the IDF would be faced with a territory larger than Israel proper to have to constantly police and patrol.

Is this really true for the times?

Census of population in the Sinai was less than 50,000 in 1960. It was only after Sinai was returned to Egyptian control after 1980 that the Egyptian government began to heavily settle the area. So while I am not sure of what the population would be during Israeli occupation, my guess would be much less than 100,000.

This isn't exactly large. The growth in population of today - around 600,000 (not counting the canal zone) - I think is because of the growth of non-Bedouin as Egypt built more permanent settlements.

Furthermore, in Israel itself, the Israelis have had the best relations with the bedouin out of all the Arabs. Only fairly recently has it come under strain as the government takes more land away from them in order to promote permanent settlement.

I am not aware of any issues the Israelis had with the bedouin population int he Sinai during their occupation - but that could be my ignorance. But given the huge amount of land available and the sparse population, I don't think the bedouin will have much to complain about. Under Israeli control, the chances for ISIS style radicalism is probably less likely to flourish - it really only started after the Arab Spring. The bedouin will probably have less grievances with the Israelis than they do with Cairo today which was much more aggressive in settling the region than the Israelis would be. The Israelis could only really settle a minor amount next to Israel, leaving the vast majority of land to bedouins. Of course, over a larger amount of time, this would become a greater issue. But I don't see the potential size of an Israeli settler population approaching the levels of the non-bedouin Egyptians, and it is likely to be more restricted in its scope.

A lot depends on how badly Israel manages the relations with the bedouins. Cairo has done a poor job since regaining the peninsula which accounts for the problems today. I don't think the Israelis would do as bad based on the historical treatment of their own bedouin population. if Israel chooses the same pattern of development as Cairo did - turning south Sinai into a tourist zone, neglecting development and services of the area, seizing the desirable coastal land, limited benefits from the gas and oil found on their land, etc. - then they'll have the same trouble as the Egyptians do now. However, I think the Israelis will probably do a better job.

So question the size of the population, its hostility, and therefore the difficulty of Israel to control the region.

It certainly might become a problem for the Israelis, and bad decisions would cause blow back, but that is by no means inevitable or even the most likely scenario.
 

You know that's a really interesting argument, and I didn't know that about the Negev Bedouin, learn something new every day. :D

Still, just with the situation as it is with Israel and its neighbours, I just don't think it would ultimately be possible. It's a gaping wound in the Israeli-Egyptian relationship and even a nuclear-armed Israel is still going to have a lot of problems without the same sort of rapprochement with Egypt that happened IOTL. And if Egypt remains under Sadat or someone like him, it's not at all unlikely that a major military disaster (for Israel) like Operation Badr could be repeated. Israel is really good at fighting short, decisive wars and less so at dealing with prolonged, bleeding insurgencies, I guess I just don't see an outcome that doesn't involve Egypt just making Israel bleed constantly for every day it spends in the Sinai Peninsula.

That all said, the modern-day situation in the Sinai is confusing, and actually unprecedented as far as Egypt's previous history there is concerned. The really nasty issues didn't really start until after the 2011 Revolution where the region basically became a lawless hotbed of unrest and terrorist activity. I might be wrong here but something like that doesn't strike me as guaranteed to happen.
 
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