Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
What happens if the Communists gain the upper hand in Iran in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution instead of the Shia Fundamentalists?
WI: Communists gain the upper hand after Iranian Revolution
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
Um, the Tudeh would get couped by the military so fast you'd think they were magicked away by the djinn.
The Iranian military didn't want to fight 90% of the country which the islamists claimed to represent.
The Tudeh OTOH were never more than fringe of leftists in universities and a few labor activists that got stomped so hard by SAVAK they were effectively leaderless and powerless.
The main reason secularists were so thin on the ground in Iran and fractious was b/c SAVAK actively prosecuted anyone vaguely hinting at ties with Tudeh. Liberal, secular? Gotta be a Commie...cue arrest, torture, exile and prison or a bullet in the back of the head in 3..2..1.
If the Soviets try invading to reverse the coup, they get serious resistance. the US decides to back Iran and WWIII ensues. NOT worth it.
The Soviets knew it and didn't bother doing more than recruiting intel sources.
The Iranian military didn't want to fight 90% of the country which the islamists claimed to represent.
The Tudeh OTOH were never more than fringe of leftists in universities and a few labor activists that got stomped so hard by SAVAK they were effectively leaderless and powerless.
The main reason secularists were so thin on the ground in Iran and fractious was b/c SAVAK actively prosecuted anyone vaguely hinting at ties with Tudeh. Liberal, secular? Gotta be a Commie...cue arrest, torture, exile and prison or a bullet in the back of the head in 3..2..1.
If the Soviets try invading to reverse the coup, they get serious resistance. the US decides to back Iran and WWIII ensues. NOT worth it.
The Soviets knew it and didn't bother doing more than recruiting intel sources.
Depends on the timing of the invasion. If they invade immediately after the coup, then yeah the Iranians are going to put up a fight and the US will definitely come down on their side. If they wait a bit before invading, then they'll blow the Iranians away: the Iranian military was in shambles after the loss of US aide and the Islamists purged the largely pro-Shah officer corps. It was only because of the Iraqis mind-boggling incompetence that they didn't get flattened and were able to draw the thing out into a stalemate.
The US would reaction at that point would be complicated. On the one hand, potential of direct Soviet access to the Persian Gulf is a not good thing from the US's standpoint. On the other hand, there is going to be a bit of a PR problem with openly coming in on the side of a regime that took a bunch of Americans hostage and threatened to massacre them.
@ObsessedNuker
Timing is everything as you point out, but Tudeh trying anything by themselves is about like an armed insurrection by the Republic of Texas folks against the Fifth Armored. Their only hope is the treadheads die laughing or run out of fuel or ammo or hit their designated kill total and shut down a la Futurama.
Say Khomeini dies and the Islamists find themsleves as offbalance as the secularists.
Sure the Islamists had a deeper bench and a lot better focus asnd ground game IOTL,but say SAVAK and the military actuallty challenged Khomeinis attempts to stir the pot and create martyrs 1977-1978, arrested enough clerics or better yet, got enough ayatollahs to denounce them as suicidal idiots embarassing Islam or s/t.
At any rate, I'm assuming the Islamists are NOT coming out on top and purging the officer corps. Tudeh tres to make a Paris Commune out of Teheran, fails miserably, bleats for help from the USSR as it goes pear-shaped.
Timing is everything as you point out, but Tudeh trying anything by themselves is about like an armed insurrection by the Republic of Texas folks against the Fifth Armored. Their only hope is the treadheads die laughing or run out of fuel or ammo or hit their designated kill total and shut down a la Futurama.
Say Khomeini dies and the Islamists find themsleves as offbalance as the secularists.
Sure the Islamists had a deeper bench and a lot better focus asnd ground game IOTL,but say SAVAK and the military actuallty challenged Khomeinis attempts to stir the pot and create martyrs 1977-1978, arrested enough clerics or better yet, got enough ayatollahs to denounce them as suicidal idiots embarassing Islam or s/t.
At any rate, I'm assuming the Islamists are NOT coming out on top and purging the officer corps. Tudeh tres to make a Paris Commune out of Teheran, fails miserably, bleats for help from the USSR as it goes pear-shaped.
Oh, I agree here.
Huh, if the Islamists don't purge the Iranian officer corps and the USSR does not invade for fear of creating a crisis with the US but Saddam Hussein still gets it in his head to attack Iran... that would have a major impact on the Iran-Iraq war.
@ObsessedNuker
I think we both agree that with a functional chain of command, the Iranian military would obliterate the Iraqis.
You're correct that revolutionary political paralysis in Teheran would be horrifically detrimental to Iranian military performance, morale etc.
One huge butterfly you might put in there is Carter's not POTUS 1977-1980 telling the Iranian military and secret police to quit being meanies and crushing the riots that led to the perception the Shah was incompetent to rule.
Reza actually listened and ordered everyone to back off, b/c he wanted the West to see progress but thought he had a lot more room to maneuver at home than he did.
Even at 80% effective with a slow start, the Iranians still pull off a one-sided massacre that would cause Saddam's fall from power. Another major butterfly in that is open resupply for the Western weapons the Iranain miltary had.
Saddam only moved OTL b/c he saw a decapitated wreck and swooped in for the "kill", only to find out you don't just need gear, you need training, doctrine, leadership, and skilled cadre to make a modern army move and fight worth a #$%^. The Iraqi army totally lacked those and never really developed 'em b/c that would be politically inconvenient.
They were over-armed cops designed to quash dissent, not take and hold territory and FWIW, great at that job as the US and allied militaries found out during the occupation.
Against serious military opposition with 50% or better numbers, they'd be cut to pieces.
*edit* That changed considerably ca 1985, Saddam actually backed off and let the Iraqi generals do their jobs. Plus, they actually started training in Anbar how to do maneuver tactics.
Thus the WWI tactics with 1970's gear that established a nadir of mutual incompetence by design with Iran killing roughly a million people that dragged on for eight years.
SCIRI didn't want any "military" heroes b/c that might imply the Shah and his cronies did s/t right, so they relied on the Basij to clear mines with their feet and die in human-wave attacks while the Revolutionary Guard sat in their Centurions and watched. Sad, stupid, horrific waste of lives.
To get back to the OP, say the Tudeh try to pull the Paris Commune trick, order a general strike, etc. S/b gets their thumb out and declares martial law, and clears the streets by any means necessary.
Rewards for turning in the agitators were starting this #$%^ result in Tudeh and whoever s/b doesn't like getting wrung for information, jailed, or dead, Project Phoenix style. 20000-5000- arrested and at least 5000 dead to make a point.
You've got chaos for a few days, then the Iranian military rolls and Iraq's army gets shredded, IAF starts shredding their logistical net and two weeks later, between Iraqi defections, surrenders, and straight-up panicked defeat the road to Baghdad is wide open.
Iran and their new Iraqi helpers drive in, make sure Saddam and his Tikriti henchmen dangle from a lampost, (IDK how well date palms would serve as gallows) and Iraq as we know it fissions into Sunniland, Shi'aville, and Kurdistan. I'd love to see the grand bargain between Iran, rump Iraq, Turkey and Syria solving the Kurdish question ca 1982.
I remember reading a potboiler novel about the USSR prompting Iraq to invade Iran as part of the strategy to get a warm-water port, spook Saudi Arabia, control all the oil, mwahahaha.
The USSR liked the fact Iraq bought their weapons but they weren't a Soviet ally, like Syria they'd really go to the mat to prop up. Saddam crushed the Iraqi Communist Party and made it clear it was his kingdom sorry, socialist paradise and you could like it or lump it.
YMMDV but since everyone was so squeamish about SAVAK or the military crushing the riots and being meanies, 500K died and both economies got barbecued in the Iran-Iraq War.
I think we both agree that with a functional chain of command, the Iranian military would obliterate the Iraqis.
You're correct that revolutionary political paralysis in Teheran would be horrifically detrimental to Iranian military performance, morale etc.
One huge butterfly you might put in there is Carter's not POTUS 1977-1980 telling the Iranian military and secret police to quit being meanies and crushing the riots that led to the perception the Shah was incompetent to rule.
Reza actually listened and ordered everyone to back off, b/c he wanted the West to see progress but thought he had a lot more room to maneuver at home than he did.
Even at 80% effective with a slow start, the Iranians still pull off a one-sided massacre that would cause Saddam's fall from power. Another major butterfly in that is open resupply for the Western weapons the Iranain miltary had.
Saddam only moved OTL b/c he saw a decapitated wreck and swooped in for the "kill", only to find out you don't just need gear, you need training, doctrine, leadership, and skilled cadre to make a modern army move and fight worth a #$%^. The Iraqi army totally lacked those and never really developed 'em b/c that would be politically inconvenient.
They were over-armed cops designed to quash dissent, not take and hold territory and FWIW, great at that job as the US and allied militaries found out during the occupation.
Against serious military opposition with 50% or better numbers, they'd be cut to pieces.
*edit* That changed considerably ca 1985, Saddam actually backed off and let the Iraqi generals do their jobs. Plus, they actually started training in Anbar how to do maneuver tactics.
Thus the WWI tactics with 1970's gear that established a nadir of mutual incompetence by design with Iran killing roughly a million people that dragged on for eight years.
SCIRI didn't want any "military" heroes b/c that might imply the Shah and his cronies did s/t right, so they relied on the Basij to clear mines with their feet and die in human-wave attacks while the Revolutionary Guard sat in their Centurions and watched. Sad, stupid, horrific waste of lives.
To get back to the OP, say the Tudeh try to pull the Paris Commune trick, order a general strike, etc. S/b gets their thumb out and declares martial law, and clears the streets by any means necessary.
Rewards for turning in the agitators were starting this #$%^ result in Tudeh and whoever s/b doesn't like getting wrung for information, jailed, or dead, Project Phoenix style. 20000-5000- arrested and at least 5000 dead to make a point.
You've got chaos for a few days, then the Iranian military rolls and Iraq's army gets shredded, IAF starts shredding their logistical net and two weeks later, between Iraqi defections, surrenders, and straight-up panicked defeat the road to Baghdad is wide open.
Iran and their new Iraqi helpers drive in, make sure Saddam and his Tikriti henchmen dangle from a lampost, (IDK how well date palms would serve as gallows) and Iraq as we know it fissions into Sunniland, Shi'aville, and Kurdistan. I'd love to see the grand bargain between Iran, rump Iraq, Turkey and Syria solving the Kurdish question ca 1982.
I remember reading a potboiler novel about the USSR prompting Iraq to invade Iran as part of the strategy to get a warm-water port, spook Saudi Arabia, control all the oil, mwahahaha.
The USSR liked the fact Iraq bought their weapons but they weren't a Soviet ally, like Syria they'd really go to the mat to prop up. Saddam crushed the Iraqi Communist Party and made it clear it was his kingdom sorry, socialist paradise and you could like it or lump it.
YMMDV but since everyone was so squeamish about SAVAK or the military crushing the riots and being meanies, 500K died and both economies got barbecued in the Iran-Iraq War.
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