WI: Charles II of Spain has heirs (Nephews?)

[FesteringSpore]

Charles II of Spain is, as many of you are aware, the poster child for Habsburg inbreeding. His infertility led to the devastating War of the Spanish Succession, in which France and Austria and their allies jockeyed for the division of the Spanish empire amongst themselves.
But what if he had heirs?
No, these heirs would not be his hypothetical children; it would be nigh-impossible for him to have children with his genetic defects. There is another way, though.

John Joseph of Austria was the illegitimate son of Philip IV of Spain with an actress. Notably he was Philip IV's only legitimized illegitimate child; the king made him a prince with the title of His Serene Highness and set him to work as an administrator and representative of the king. He was a major player in court politics and in 1679 secured the position of prime minister to his half-brother Charles II, but died suddenly- some suspect poison.

But what if John Joseph of Austria had had issue? IIRC his father wanted him to marry one of the Mazarinettes, the seven nieces of France's powerful Cardinal Mazarin, but he deferred. Are there any other alternate bride options for John Joseph?

Also. In the event that John Joseph and his wife have children (and for scenario's sake, say he dies as OTL in 1679 poisoned), would these children be accepted by the powers of Europe as heirs to Spain? IIRC, the Nine Years War halted because everyone wanted to wait until Charles II's death. If Charles II has nephews lined up to succeed him, would the 9 Years' War keep dragging on? How would this affect European politics in the last years of the 17th century, and going forward? Would Louis XIV use the unpaid dowry thing to press his claim to the Spanish Netherlands?

 

[FesteringSpore]

Some potential candidates for John Joseph's wives include Margaret Yolande of Savoy (who married a Farnese iotl) and some of the Mazarinettes. Or maybe some of the (many) Wittelsbach cadet families?
Whatever the case, John Joseph's children should be the healthiest Spanish Habsburgs to date- having gone through two successive mothers that weren't habsburgs

 

[unprincipled peter]

In France, the powerful Louis XIV had a hard time getting his legitimized offspring accepted. I don't think they were ever considered equal to royal rank by court society, with the distaste gradually diminishing with further generations. This is the best case scenario.

In Spain, you have a King who is only nominally in control, a dead legitimized half brother, who was poisoned (per OP scenario), and young children who have the taint of illegitimate beginnings and likely minimal backing as heir. This hypothetical heir would need to be picked up/backed by a Spanish faction who were against a foreign heir. Dad was killed for getting too powerful. The kids likely won't be recognized by foreign powers who want a piece (or all) of the pie.

Meanwhile, there is a legitimate nephew in the Grand Dauphin, along with his issue, backed by a very powerful France. Only the questionable dowry payment would disqualify him, but that legal argument doesn't matter much. And there's unquestionable legitimacy of Joseph Ferdinand, and the two Austrian Habsburg sons. It's a case of who can force the issue.

I think John has to live and head a backing faction for his line to succeed, and that's if he marries a royal, and still a long shot. France and Austria are still going to covet the prize and work to get it. England/Britain might back the John line IF John/kid has internal backing and Spain/England can diplomatically force France and Austria to minimize their claims.

If you want an alternative hypothetical heir, better to go with a miracle Carlos II child (I think I read somewhere that early on he could shoot some seed, but the seed hit the ground before the plow did), or an unfaithful Carlos II wife gets pregnant and everyone pretends the kid is legit.

 

[FesteringSpore]

I think John has to live and head a backing faction for his line to succeed, and that's if he marries a royal, and still a long shot. France and Austria are still going to covet the prize and work to get it. England/Britain might back the John line IF John/kid has internal backing and Spain/England can diplomatically force France and Austria to minimize their claims.

So IYO, had John Joseph married and had kids with some highborn noblewoman and lived to retain his prime minister/regent spot, that might have been the only way to get the European powers to recognize his heirs as proper heirs to Spain? (And even then, France and Austria are still going to want a piece of Spain)

 

[FesteringSpore]

perhaps the heirs of John Joseph (let’s assume there’s two, Charles Joseph and a spare named Alfonso) could be used by any Habsburg loyalists in Spain to resist Philip of Anjou’s landing in Spain, so the Austrian Habsburgs back the pro-Charles Joseph faction with subsidies instead of sending Archduke Charles to Catalonia, since John Joseph’s children would already have some domestic support from in Spain. So rather than being Philip of Anjou waging a war against the invader Charles, it’d be The Spanish court using John Joseph’s children against the invading Philip of Anjou

 

[unprincipled peter]

perhaps the heirs of John Joseph (let’s assume there’s two, Charles Joseph and a spare named Alfonso) could be used by any Habsburg loyalists in Spain to resist Philip of Anjou’s landing in Spain, so the Austrian Habsburgs back the pro-Charles Joseph faction with subsidies instead of sending Archduke Charles to Catalonia, since John Joseph’s children would already have some domestic support from in Spain. So rather than being Philip of Anjou waging a war against the invader Charles, it’d be The Spanish court using John Joseph’s children against the invading Philip of Anjou

So IYO, had John Joseph married and had kids with some highborn noblewoman and lived to retain his prime minister/regent spot, that might have been the only way to get the European powers to recognize his heirs as proper heirs to Spain? (And even then, France and Austria are still going to want a piece of Spain)

John surviving, and retaining a position of power, introduces a massive shift in Spanish governance. If he's competent (the only way he has enough support to have any chance), Spain is not the slow drain of everyone (domestic and foreign) expecting a poop storm and out for themselves. If he isn't competent, he loses influence, and isn't going to be rallying any troops.

You can't just plug and play OTL 20 years down the road after such a POD. Even if John has no shot at the throne, for himself or his kids, A surviving John retaining influence/power alters the dynamics/ court politics.

 

[Avrorrange]

In France, the powerful Louis XIV had a hard time getting his legitimized offspring accepted. I don't think they were ever considered equal to royal rank by court society, with the distaste gradually diminishing with further generations. This is the best case scenario.

In Spain, you have a King who is only nominally in control, a dead legitimized half brother, who was poisoned (per OP scenario), and young children who have the taint of illegitimate beginnings and likely minimal backing as heir. This hypothetical heir would need to be picked up/backed by a Spanish faction who were against a foreign heir. Dad was killed for getting too powerful. The kids likely won't be recognized by foreign powers who want a piece (or all) of the pie.

Meanwhile, there is a legitimate nephew in the Grand Dauphin, along with his issue, backed by a very powerful France. Only the questionable dowry payment would disqualify him, but that legal argument doesn't matter much. And there's unquestionable legitimacy of Joseph Ferdinand, and the two Austrian Habsburg sons. It's a case of who can force the issue.

I think John has to live and head a backing faction for his line to succeed, and that's if he marries a royal, and still a long shot. France and Austria are still going to covet the prize and work to get it. England/Britain might back the John line IF John/kid has internal backing and Spain/England can diplomatically force France and Austria to minimize their claims.

If you want an alternative hypothetical heir, better to go with a miracle Carlos II child (I think I read somewhere that early on he could shoot some seed, but the seed hit the ground before the plow did), or an unfaithful Carlos II wife gets pregnant and everyone pretends the kid is legit.

Did the Spanish kingdoms not have a good history of bastards taking the throne over foreign candIDates?

 

[FesteringSpore]

Did the Spanish kingdoms not have a good history of bastards taking the throne over foreign candIDates?

Yeah; the Trastamara were a bastard lineage of the Ivrea; and then you had the Burgundy-Avis-Braganza pipeline
John Joseph's sons, however, would be legitimized Habsburgs as Philip IV had recognized and ennobled his son as a prince. So in a sense, they'd be better than previous raised illegitimate lines

 

[FesteringSpore]

Quick scenario:

- Rather than disagree with the wishes of his father Philip IV, John Joseph agrees to marry. His bride is Marie Mancini, one of Cardinal Mazarin's seven nieces. He is surprised to find that she is still a virgin (supposedly, Marie Mancini never consummated her relationship with the Sun King, who she had an affair with). They don't exactly love one another, but find each other tolerable. Over the years, they have three children: Charles Joseph and Peter (twins, b. 1663) and a daughter, Maria Luisa (b. 1665).

- Politics mostly proceeds as OTL; upon the death of Philip IV John Joseph opposes Maria Anna and Maria Anna kills one of his favorites and John Joseph leads a rising in Aragon to become Viceroy of Aragon and later becomes regent after Maria Anna shows favor to some low-ranked noble and makes everyone hate her. After two years as regent however, John Joseph suddenly dies at the age of 50; some suspect poison. Maria Anna returns to court but doesn't have the heart to kill JJ's progeny, taking them under her wing and raising them so that they will serve her instead of any residual loyalty to their father.

- Now this is where things really start to change. Charles II's attempts to produce an heir are no more successful than IOTL- the Orleans princess dies of appendicitis and Charles II's new wife Maria Anna of Neuburg similarly cannot produce an heir. Here is where the Queen Regent realizes that her kindness was to her benefit, as Charles Joseph and Peter have suddenly become the future of the Habsburg house. I talked with @Archduke and he surmised that he could marry the OTL bride of Max Emmanuel of Bavaria, Maria Antonia of Austria. Which would in turn unbind the electorate to Austria, leaving Bavaria to be more of a wildcard diplomatically. Anyways, Maria Anna rallies the Spanish court behind Charles Joseph, and Charles II confirms Charles Joseph as his successor. This causes Louis XIV to wage a harder Nine Years' War because he knows that the Spanish have a heir and he might as well go for broke in trying to get the Spanish Netherlands, Italy, etc.

So my question is- how would this effect Bavaria if Max Emmanuel isn't bound to Austria via Maria Antonia? IOTL she died in 1692 and that didn't stop him from fighting against the imperial army in 1700 which ended up making him lose his electorate. If he doesn't marry Maria Antonia, obviously his sons like Charles Albert wouldn't be born, but how would that affect his behavior and reputation? Would he be allowed to govern the Spanish Netherlands (and thus be in a position to ally with France?) Would Louis XIV, if he goes all in during the Nine Years' War as opposed to letting the Spanish off due to wanting to improve Spanish public opinion in preparation for Philip of Anjou's succession, actually gain anything from the Spanish empire? How would Austria and the Maritime Powers react to the new Spanish situation and would the Holy Roman Emperor support his (cousins? nephews?) in Spain?

 

[isabella]

In France, the powerful Louis XIV had a hard time getting his legitimized offspring accepted. I don't think they were ever considered equal to royal rank by court society, with the distaste gradually diminishing with further generations. This is the best case scenario.

In Spain, you have a King who is only nominally in control, a dead legitimized half brother, who was poisoned (per OP scenario), and young children who have the taint of illegitimate beginnings and likely minimal backing as heir. This hypothetical heir would need to be picked up/backed by a Spanish faction who were against a foreign heir. Dad was killed for getting too powerful. The kids likely won't be recognized by foreign powers who want a piece (or all) of the pie.

Meanwhile, there is a legitimate nephew in the Grand Dauphin, along with his issue, backed by a very powerful France. Only the questionable dowry payment would disqualify him, but that legal argument doesn't matter much. And there's unquestionable legitimacy of Joseph Ferdinand, and the two Austrian Habsburg sons. It's a case of who can force the issue.

I think John has to live and head a backing faction for his line to succeed, and that's if he marries a royal, and still a long shot. France and Austria are still going to covet the prize and work to get it. England/Britain might back the John line IF John/kid has internal backing and Spain/England can diplomatically force France and Austria to minimize their claims.

If you want an alternative hypothetical heir, better to go with a miracle Carlos II child (I think I read somewhere that early on he could shoot some seed, but the seed hit the ground before the plow did), or an unfaithful Carlos II wife gets pregnant and everyone pretends the kid is legit.

You are forgetting who a son of Juan José would be a male Habsburg and if he is not born later than the 1673/5 he would be the natural candidate as husband of Maria Antonia, once is clear who she would inherit Spain (and that would be pretty clear already in 1784 when Charles is married since 4 years and Antonia would be 15) and is not too unlikely who Leopold himself would be favorable to that match as I believe who his greatest problem OTL with Antonia’s inheriting Spain was who she had no male Habsburg to marry

 

[FesteringSpore]

You are forgetting who a son of Juan José would be a male Habsburg and if he is not born later than the 1673/5 he would be the natural candidate as husband of Maria Antonia, once is clear who she would inherit Spain (and that would be pretty clear already in 1784 when Charles is married since 4 years and Antonia would be 15) and is not too unlikely who Leopold himself would be favorable to that match as I believe who his greatest problem OTL with Antonia’s inheriting Spain was who she had no male Habsburg to marry

ah so in your scenario Leopold plans to have Maria Antonia inherit Spain, with Juan Jose’s children to wed as an added bonus

 

[unprincipled peter]

You are forgetting who a son of Juan José would be a male Habsburg and if he is not born later than the 1673/5 he would be the natural candidate as husband of Maria Antonia, once is clear who she would inherit Spain (and that would be pretty clear already in 1784

Except it was not clear, and would not be clear here, that Maria Antonia would inherit Spain. The change here is that an alternative candidate (Juan and/or his heir) to OTL. The debate is whether this alternative candidate jumps ahead of all the existing contenders. If he doesn't, then the remaining candidates are in the same muddy line of succession as OTL.
A son of Juan would make a good candidate for MA from purely dynastic POV. Would Leopold ignore the stench of marrying his daughter to the son of a bastard, to reap the rewards of putting a grandchild on the throne of Spain, even if MA is a traditional married her way onto the court Queen rather than inheriting it? Or would the son agree that he's the one marrying his way onto the throne as co-ruler, to prevent war? France is still powerful enough to demand compensation. OTL issues still remain, but the dance steps are going to vary to some extent from OTL.

 

[isabella]

Except it was not clear, and would not be clear here, that Maria Antonia would inherit Spain. The change here is that an alternative candidate (Juan and/or his heir) to OTL. The debate is whether this alternative candidate jumps ahead of all the existing contenders. If he doesn't, then the remaining candidates are in the same muddy line of succession as OTL.
A son of Juan would make a good candidate for MA from purely dynastic POV. Would Leopold ignore the stench of marrying his daughter to the son of a bastard, to reap the rewards of putting a grandchild on the throne of Spain, even if MA is a traditional married her way onto the court Queen rather than inheriting it? Or would the son agree that he's the one marrying his way onto the throne as co-ruler, to prevent war? France is still powerful enough to demand compensation. OTL issues still remain, but the dance steps are going to vary to some extent from OTL.

At that point I would say who Maria Antonia’s inheritance was pretty guaranteed. In any case Maria Antonia would be the heiress with her husband ruling jure-uxoris, something acceptable for both and also for Leopold. And if that match consent to Maria Antonia to inherit Spain and keep it under Habsburg rule, then Leopold would not care much who the groom’s father was illegitimate

 

[FesteringSpore]

At that point I would say who Maria Antonia’s inheritance was pretty guaranteed. In any case Maria Antonia would be the heiress with her husband ruling jure-uxoris, something acceptable for both and also for Leopold. And if that match consent to Maria Antonia to inherit Spain and keep it under Habsburg rule, then Leopold would not care much who the groom’s father was illegitimate

Would the the Spanish Habsburg house name would change (as it did for the Austrian Habsburgs when Maria Theresa married Francis of Lorraine and they became Habsburg-Lorraine)? Or would it still just be the House of Austria in Spain?

OTL issues still remain, but the dance steps are going to vary to some extent from OTL.

I've read that the Nine Years' War ended on a deliberately light touch from France because Louis XIV wanted to generate goodwill in Spain internally in preparation for placing Philip d'Anjou on the throne. If there is a definite candidate in the sons of John Joseph, maybe Louis XIV just goes all out in trying to grab all the goodies from Spain, like the Spanish Netherlands?

 

[Vitruvius]

Quick scenario:

- Rather than disagree with the wishes of his father Philip IV, John Joseph agrees to marry. His bride is Marie Mancini, one of Cardinal Mazarin's seven nieces. He is surprised to find that she is still a virgin (supposedly, Marie Mancini never consummated her relationship with the Sun King, who she had an affair with). They don't exactly love one another, but find each other tolerable. Over the years, they have three children: Charles Joseph and Peter (twins, b. 1663) and a daughter, Maria Luisa (b. 1665).

- Politics mostly proceeds as OTL; upon the death of Philip IV John Joseph opposes Maria Anna and Maria Anna kills one of his favorites and John Joseph leads a rising in Aragon to become Viceroy of Aragon and later becomes regent after Maria Anna shows favor to some low-ranked noble and makes everyone hate her. After two years as regent however, John Joseph suddenly dies at the age of 50; some suspect poison. Maria Anna returns to court but doesn't have the heart to kill JJ's progeny, taking them under her wing and raising them so that they will serve her instead of any residual loyalty to their father.

- Now this is where things really start to change. Charles II's attempts to produce an heir are no more successful than IOTL- the Orleans princess dies of appendicitis and Charles II's new wife Maria Anna of Neuburg similarly cannot produce an heir. Here is where the Queen Regent realizes that her kindness was to her benefit, as Charles Joseph and Peter have suddenly become the future of the Habsburg house. I talked with @Archduke and he surmised that he could marry the OTL bride of Max Emmanuel of Bavaria, Maria Antonia of Austria. Which would in turn unbind the electorate to Austria, leaving Bavaria to be more of a wildcard diplomatically. Anyways, Maria Anna rallies the Spanish court behind Charles Joseph, and Charles II confirms Charles Joseph as his successor. This causes Louis XIV to wage a harder Nine Years' War because he knows that the Spanish have a heir and he might as well go for broke in trying to get the Spanish Netherlands, Italy, etc.

So my question is- how would this effect Bavaria if Max Emmanuel isn't bound to Austria via Maria Antonia? IOTL she died in 1692 and that didn't stop him from fighting against the imperial army in 1700 which ended up making him lose his electorate. If he doesn't marry Maria Antonia, obviously his sons like Charles Albert wouldn't be born, but how would that affect his behavior and reputation? Would he be allowed to govern the Spanish Netherlands (and thus be in a position to ally with France?) Would Louis XIV, if he goes all in during the Nine Years' War as opposed to letting the Spanish off due to wanting to improve Spanish public opinion in preparation for Philip of Anjou's succession, actually gain anything from the Spanish empire? How would Austria and the Maritime Powers react to the new Spanish situation and would the Holy Roman Emperor support his (cousins? nephews?) in Spain?

This is probably the best/most probable scenario to get Juan Jose's line onto the Spanish throne. This way they don't really have to insert him or his descendants into the line of succession as their claim would come by marrying Maria Antonia. If Mariana gets along well enough with his son she could go along as it ensures he line, via Margaret Theresa, remains on the Spanish throne.

Assuming all the pieces fit together in Madrid the only real obstacle would getting Leopold's consent to the match. He'd be giving up his and his son's claims to Spain in favor of some distant bastard cousin's son (obviously technically Leopold's daughter would be Queen but I doubt he really cared about that). So Mariana would have to convince him that its the best way forward to of French claims. Given the pressures Austria faced in the east Leopold might go along if he thought it would take pressure off in the west.

If that arrangement does go through I imagine Leopold would just propose his sister in law for Max Emmanuel, so the Neuburg girls all get bumped down one. Maria Sophia to Max Emanuel, Mari Anna to Peter II etc. I don't know where that leaves Jakub Louis Sobieski though.

A more solid Spanish succession does impact Louis' diplomacy for sure. He would probably want to take as much as he could from Spain since the probability of a Bourbon inheriting is now greatly diminished.

 

[unprincipled peter]

At that point I would say who Maria Antonia’s inheritance was pretty guaranteed.

Nothing is guaranteed until all parties sign off on it. As long as France is willing to put forth the Dauphin and/or his issue as a candidate, there is no guarantee. Might makes right. IF France decides they can beat Spain/Austria, and maybe England, (more or less OTL, except Juan might have Spain in better shape), whomever has the military superiority will decide the issue. Only if Juan has Spain locked up will France back off, and they might only agree to do so IF Juan Son marries someone from the French camp. Juan might decide being the King, with French backing, is better than merely being the de facto ruler. He'll certainly look to play off the foreign powers against each other, to keep the most power for domestic Spanish factions.

 

[unprincipled peter]

I've read that the Nine Years' War ended on a deliberately light touch from France because Louis XIV wanted to generate goodwill in Spain internally in preparation for placing Philip d'Anjou on the throne. If there is a definite candidate in the sons of John Joseph, maybe Louis XIV just goes all out in trying to grab all the goodies from Spain, like the Spanish Netherlands?

Absolutely, various diplomatic and/or succession scenarios will alter the conduct of the 9 Y W. IF, for argument's sake, we posit that France has lost hope of getting much of the Spanish Empire, they are going to try to make those gains during the current (9 Years) War. As you said, France decided to pause to be in best shape possible for the expected upcoming WoSS. IF the expectation is of a smaller, or no, WoSS, France will look to make more gains in 9YW. How that plays out is questionable. Everyone was tired, and going for more might backfire, leaving France in a losing position.

 

[FesteringSpore]

leaving France in a losing position.

Lol I read in the Encyclopedia Britannica that at one point during the War of the Spanish Succession, Louis XIV was willing to give up the entire spanish empire in exchange for Naples, Sicily and Sardinia (and his negotiator the Marquis de Torcy was willing to just take Naples)

Imagine if something similar happened in this scenario

 

[FesteringSpore]

A more solid Spanish succession does impact Louis' diplomacy for sure. He would probably want to take as much as he could from Spain since the probability of a Bourbon inheriting is now greatly diminished.

Do you think it's possible for Louis XIV to make out with anything if he decides to commit more strength to the 9YW than he did IRL?

 

[Vitruvius]

Do you think it's possible for Louis XIV to make out with anything if he decides to commit more strength to the 9YW than he did IRL?

Perhaps. The diplomacy will be a little different. Leopold won't be as interested in protecting Spain if he has no personal stake (if he and his sons are not the heirs presumptive). But the English and Dutch will still want to protect the Spanish Netherlands as a buffer. But there's a few other points to juggle. Strasbourg and Dunkirk were the two major cities the allies would have liked to pry away from France. And Louis probably would have been willing to part with Strasbourg if he could have kept Lorraine. However the allies by this point were pretty regretful over the way they had tossed Charles of Lorraine overboard at Nijmegen in 1678. Technically Louis did undertake to restore Lorraine to Charles in that treaty but the allies imposed no conditions upon the restoration so the terms Louis offered Charles were so onerous that he declined. Then he went on to help drive the Turks from Hungary and die fighting France again. So the allies out of remorse prioritized restoring Lorraine to his son Leopold at Ryswick in 1697.

Leopold will probably be more inclined to push for his nephew and namesake's restoration in Lorraine than to preserve every little bit of Spanish territory if he has no expectation that any of it will fall to him. So its possible that the allies might split slightly and Louis could use that as a wedge to gain maybe a little more of the Spanish Netherlands. I don't think Luxembourg is likely but maybe something else, perhaps Mons or Courtrai or alternatively maybe some border territory in Catalonia, like Rosas.

I doubt there would be any huge concessions to France unless the French dramatically overperform in the war vs OTL.

Also thinking about it more, I would tweak the scenario a little bit. I don't think Marie Mancini is terribly likely for Juan Jose. My understanding is that aside from Louis the only match in serious contention was with Charles of Lorraine until his uncle messed things up. Also a marriage with Mancini would probably occur around 1660 so any children would likely be adults by the time Juan Jose dies (assuming as IOTL in 1679). And Mancini would probably interfere too much for Mariana to be able to 'adopt' Juan Jose's children.

I think a better possibility might be to set the POD in 1668. There was a brief period when he and Mariana were on good terms and he was actually involved in negotiating with the English and Dutch for support against France. So instead of falling out with Mariana he accepts the appointment as Governor of the Spanish Netherlands (she did appoint him IOTL but he never departed Madrid and so she appointed Velasco instead and they fell out over it). JJ here goes promptly to Brussels in early 1668 and he's there through the end of the war. Then as part of the peace he is able to negotiate a marriage with a French princess. The French were concerned about his potential appointment because they feared he would rally the locals to the Spanish cause. So they could try and marry him to a French princess to split him off from Mariana.

As to who I would propose one of the Palatine girls, either Benedicte Henriette or if her betrothal has already occurred then her sister Louise Marie. They are French raised but not of royal blood which would help overcome the issue of JJ's rank (he's legitimated but was only ever given the style of Serene Highness and addressed in Madrid more as if he was a grandee than an infante). Also JJ apparently entertained ideas in the 1660s of putting himself forward as a candidate for the Polish throne. Nothing came of it because Leopold's court made it clear that they would not support such a scheme. But if the idea is in JJ's head already marrying the Polish Queen's niece could be seen as advantageous and push him into accepting the match.

So that would potentially give him a son around 1669-1670. The boy would be old enough to be able to marry Maria Antonia but young enough to be still a child when his father dies. So when JJ dies in 1679, probably he would have returned to Madrid by that point, his wife may just return to France (as Benedicte did IOTL when her husband died) and leave the kids to Mariana's care. A later POD also minimizes the butterflies. So you probably rely upon Maria Antonia being married as IOTL and the War of Devolution occurring in the same manner.