WI Ceasar Dies at Alexandria (2023 ed)

[John Fredrick Parker]

So the idea of Julius Ceasar drowning during the Siege of Alexandria (late 48 to early 47 BC) has been brought up before, but I thought it might be something worth revising a few years later, just because of how uniquely it seems to create chaos in the midst of the civil war. Discussion so far:

During the Siege of Alexandria (47 BC), Julius Caesar attempted to seize the island of Pharos and gain control of the royal harbor, but was defeated on land and forced to retreat; during the ride back to the palace, his boat capsized and, being in full armor, Caesar started to sink. IOTL, it was only by quick thinking that he was able to take off his armor before he drowned, and with enough energy left to swim back to shore; but supposing he had failed to do so?

That’s quite a delightfully chaotic POD you have there, almost perfect for sheer, unrelenting political strife and confusion for a while. I do have some thoughts on it, let’s go step by step:

The Alexandrian War:

• The Pharos encounter took place after Achillas was murdered, so the Egyptians will be led by Arsinoe and the eunuch Ganymedes (and what a triumph for their authority Caesar’s death will be!).
• We have no way of knowing who’d take command the Roman forces, because the sources never mention any of Caesar’s prominent subordinates having played a role. If I remember correctly, we only know of three officers: Euphranor (the Rhodian admiral), Tiberius Claudius Nero (the Quaestor, father of the emperor Tiberius) and “Rufio” (an unknown legate, appointed by Caesar in command of the legions when he left Egypt). Does Rufio take command? Does Nero – aristocratic and basically an Optimate supporter – accept to serve under a Caesarian, the son of a freedman? It makes for an interesting dilemma.
• The Roman forces are in a somewhat improved position, are being successful at sea and Mithridates’s army is due to arrive in a few weeks as reinforcements. But without Caesar, what is the point of fighting the war? Depending on who takes command, the Romans could still hold on until Mithridates arrives and face Arsinoe… or they could sail off, putting an end to an embarrassing affair.
• Caesarion was born in June 47 BC. Caesar’s death would take place around December or January – I think, not sure -, so Cleopatra would be pregnant. As to whether that would matter it’s hard to say. Even if the Roman officers could be persuaded that Cleopatra is carrying Caesar’s baby, it’s still a half-Egyptian bastard.
• Ptolemy XIII will still be a prisoner, and without Caesar to restrain her, I’m fairly sure Cleopatra will have him assassinated ASAP. She could, I suppose, try to cut a deal using Ptolemy as a bargaining chip, but with Arsinoe’s authority strengthened its perfectly possible Cleopatra can’t successfully undermine Arsinoe after such a crushing blow as losing Caesar.
• To sum it up: Potential for internal chaos within the Romans and possible withdrawal from the war. Arsinoe massively strengthened and favorite to win (if she’s lucky enough to see Ptolemy XIII dying, she can always rule by marrying the young Ptolemy XIV), unless the Romans and Mithridates stand their ground and win an equivalent to the OTL Battle of the Nile.

The Caesarian Inheritance:

• Caesarion being a non-starter, Caesar hasn’t yet written the infamous will in which Octavian was adopted and selected as the heir. Caesar’s pre-Civil War will had Pompey as the heir, and we’d have to assume Caesar would take the time to prepare a new will in Rome before going into Pharsalus (if not, then you get a messy and outdated will in which the secondary heirs will be crucial).
• Who would be the heir? It could well be Mark Antony this time, as he hadn’t yet embarrassed himself and fallen into Caesar’s disapproval (or Antony could attempt to falsify the will). It might also be young Sextus Julius Caesar, son of one of his cousins and by then a Quaestor. In OTL Sextus would be installed to command Syria when Caesar marched against Pharnaces (which opens up the question on whether Sextus was in Alexandria, but if he had been De Bello Alexandrino would have probably mentioned him. There’s always nephews Quintus Pedius and Lucius Pinarius, but he passed them over as his choice for her in OTL and there’s little reason he’d picked either before a not yet disgraced Antony. Or it could be Decimus Brutus, though I think Antony would go first.

The Civil War:

• Rome is in domestic chaos at this time, owing to Antony’s mismanagement of the government and his massive feud with Dolabella (which could get even uglier). This will continue for a while as news of Caesar’s death will take months to reach the city, and when they do the turmoil within the Caesarian faction will be severe, even if it’s just Antony inheriting Caesar’s name as his heir. Bear in mind there’s a lot of former Pompeians and Optimates spared by Caesar who could now embrace their former comrades in Africa.
• I don’t think it would be utterly impossible for Antony and several leading Caesarians and Optimates to reach an agreement under a somewhat different set of circumstances, but Cato and Scipio are going to be the ones leading the faction (not the Pompeian brothers or Pompey’s old retainers), and I can hardly see him agreeing to a compromise if they feel they have gained the advantage. Hard to say whether this means they attempting to invade Italy or waiting for Antony to invade.
• Hispania in particular is a mess thanks to Quintus Cassius’s horrible performance as governor. The news of Caesar’s death and subsequent issues may turn Hispania into a battlefield earlier. Lepidus is there, so that will keep him outside of the initial power struggle in Italy.

Pharnaces:

• Has defeated Calvinus by this point, is seriously threatening the Asian provinces. Whether he makes a lot of progress depends on what happens to Mithridates’s army and the reinforcements sent by Calvinus to Egypt. If they return soon enough Calvinus might be able to contain Pharnaces and his armies – if you consider Pharnaces to have been initially lucky and not a good general -, or Pharnaces could realize his ambition of regaining Pontus. From there it’s hard to read whether he’d get overambitious and attempt to overrun the province of Asia or whether he’d stay put hoping the prolonged civil war helps him to secure his gains. He can cause quite a bit of damage in the East, but he’s not an existential threat, and eventually a commander sent by Antony – or by the Optimates if they win – should be able to overpower him.

Overall Thoughts:

• There’s enough alternatives there to make for a damn good TL, I’d say. As to the historical implications, Caesar goes down in history with a reduced reputation after getting himself killed in a silly, unnecessary adventure (he’ll still go down as one of the great Roman general though).
• The civil war takes a turn as the Optimates’s chances are increased, but in truth not much changes in the west across much of 47 BC until the news of Caesar’s death after finally confirmed. Antony has a mess of his own creation in Italy and undisciplined – but experienced legions -, but he’s still miles ahead of anyone the Optimates can put in command of an army (unless Labienus can stand up to him), and Scipio/Cato may not be able to use Juba’s resources if they have to invade Italy rather than wait for Antony.
• Cleopatra likely becomes a footnote, unless she can retain the support of the Romans and win an Alt-Battle of the Nile. You probably get Queen Arsinoe.
• I do think the scenario is more or less open ended. There’s a number of possibilities to play regarding Caesar’s will, both sides are going to be “matched” in the sense of having significant disadvantages to overcome, and I can honestly see an Optimate or “Caesarian” victory as still being possible.

Who Caesar's heir is does not really mean much-his heir is not necessarily his political heir, and to the extent that someone can claim to be the main adoptive son of Caesar it only matters what they can do with it-being Caesar's heir got Octavian a foot in the door, but he required immense political cunning and ruthlessness and a fair bit of luck and serious miscalculation (on the part of Cicero) to even get to a point where he could conceivably form a pact with Antony and Lepidus. Sextus Julius Caesar, Decimus Brutus, whoever he declares his main heir, is probably not going to derive significant benefit from it.

Now, on to where things stand in 47 BCE: Antony is in command of Italy, where he is dealing with 4 mutinous legions that were only pacified when Caesar returned. Now perhaps news of Caesar's death could spur the legionaries to rally to avenge him, dealing with the most pressing and immediate issue then facing Antony. The issue then becomes the anti-Caesarian forces in North Africa. There may be an opening for Antony to mend fences with Caesar's opposition at this stage now that Caesar's dead, as he was deftly doing after Caesar's OTL assassination before Octavian stormed in and blew everything up with Cicero's backing.But of course, in 44 BCE the most obstinate anti-Caesarians-namely Cato and Metellus Scipio-were dead, which they are very much not at this point in time. It's unlikely they can win-Labienus in particular is no slouch, but Antony and Lepidus are fine generals in their own right and still command the most effective and seasoned legions around.

I would not be so sure Labienus defeated and almost killed Ceaser in a skirmish in North Africa and almost won at Munda and Ceaser victory in North Africa was not assured by any means. Personly I would not compare Lepidus and Antony to Labienus who was instrumental in the conquest of Gaul and the cesareans have another problem they are broke and it was the reason for Ceaser to stay in Egypt to collect the debt Egypt owed Rome.

Hmmm. Marcus Antonius is Master of Horse at that time and if it is early enough in 47 BC, he hasn't made a complete hash of things in Italy just yet, so he's probably the strongest Caesarian at this point. Antony could try and claim the position himself to give a boost to his own position, but he might also act as he did in 44 BC and offer it to another leading Caesarian to secure their support for his leadership. If he chooses the later option some possibilities would be Lepidus (the governor of Nearer Spain) or Decimus Junius Brutus (essentially the governor of Transalpine Gaul) or possibly even Gnaeus Domitius Calvinus, a consular who is effectively the governor of Asia at this time (though Calvinus' star might have dimmed a bit from having just been defeated by the Bosporan king Pharnaces at the Battle of Nicopolis.) Do we know who was governor of Cisalpine Gaul in 47 BC?

Of course whoever the Caesarians pick, their hold on the position might be short lived, since there is a large Optimate army in Africa, and with Caesar dead, and the Caesarians facing crisis in Spain, Illyria, and Asia Minor, the Optimates now stand an excellent chance of winning the civil war. If that happens then we're likely back to Metellus Scipio ending up as Pontifex Maximus since he is now (or soon will be) the commander of the Optimate forces in Africa.

Thanks.

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One question we could start with -- as of the start of 47 BC, who (between the Pomeians and the Ceasarians) would you say has the upper hand militarily (and/or in any hypothetical negotiations)? AIUI, Cato (and Metellus Scipio and Labienus) command twelve legions in North Africa, while the Caesarian forces are split between Italy, Spain, and the East (two in Egypt, at least one dealing with the Pontic army, etc). The Italian legions, while nominally commanded by Mark Antony, are mutinous; Lepidus is dealing with his own situation in Spain, and I have to wonder if he's going to be particularly loyal to "Caesar's cause" is Caesar is dead; and the forces in the East are, for the time being, mostly trying to put out fires (at the very least, getting out of Egypt in one piece, and dealing with Pharnaces). As to the Egyptian legions specifically, Tiberius Claudius Nero seems to be the most likely candidate for assuming command, which is relevant here since he was a optimate at heart; thus, he may be inclined to switch sides if the one he’s on suddenly has a crisis of leadership.

So from what I can tell, Cato is the one who's in the strongest position upon news of Caesar's death reaches everyone. What does that mean for the short term? Well, as stubborn as Cato could be, I think he’s at least smart enough to entice Lepidus and Tiberius to flip if they’re already primed for it (maybe promising Lepidus the consulship, and getting Tiberius a trumph for defeating the Pontics). So he is smart and flexible enough to corner Mark Antony; the question is, does he know how dangerous Antony can be if cornered, or what to do to secure Italy and finish the war? Speaking of Italy, what happens if Cato makes this play? As mentioned, Antony is dealing with legions on the break of mutiny, Dolabella has basically taken over the streets of Rome (or those not occupied by Antony’s legions), and the Senate has passed (or is getting ready to pass) the “Final Act”. Does Antony (or whoever has effective command of the legions remaining in Italy) have any leverage in negotiating with Cato et el? Or does Cato decide to be really vindictive and/or suspicious of Caesar’s lieutenant; and if he does, does he perhaps opt instead to try and utilize Dolabella and his mob as an ally?

And given all this, what kind of outcome looks most likely? Well, I can see Metellus Scipio being installed as the new Pontifex Maximus; as mentioned Lepidus can use his influence to become consul at some point, as most certainly will Cato. Does the new regime pass any kind of reforms? Does the Republic endure and/or recover? Or do these kind of long term questions depend on things that happen or don’t happen long after the events we’re talking about?

 

[bguy]

Even if the Optimates are open to making peace, I doubt Antonius can afford to make peace with them. He doesn't dare unilaterally disband the legions in Italy. Not only would doing so destroy any leverage he might have in negotiations with the Optimates, but if Antonius doesn't try and claim those legions than someone else certainly will. (Probably Dolabella.) However, since several of the legions are mutinous and Antonius doesn't actually have any legal authority over them (his position as Master of Horse lapses with the death of Caesar), the only way he is going to get control of the legions is to buy them. He's going to have to promise them everything that Caesar owes them and probably some whomping big bonuses on top of that. Thus Antonius is going to need money and a lot of it, and with the eastern provinces and Spain in chaos, that means he is going to have to squeeze Italy hard. He'll need to take out forced "loans" from Italian municipalities, seize land from any cities with Pompeian sympathies, and above all seize the property of the leading Pompeians. (Pompey's holdings themselves are worth at least 200 million sesterces.) And once Antonius starts seizing Optimate holdings in Italy that pretty well committs him to a war to the finish with them.

As for how the Antonius-Optimate war goes, their forces are pretty evenly matched, so it could go either way. The Optimates do have Titus Labienus who is probably the best general in the Roman world now that Caesar is dead, and if he was given the command then I'm sure he could beat Antonius, but Labienus won't be given the command. That is going to go to Metellus Scipio and based on his disastrous OTL performance at Thapsus I don't have a high opinion of his generalship.

As for Lepidus, he's potentially in a very strong position here. He had at least 4 legions of his own at that time, and if he can get control of the troops in Further Spain then that gives him another 5 legions. I assume he'll be open to offers from both sides, though I think Antonius will have the advantage in any negotiations as he'll be a lot more willing to make concessions to Lepidus than Cato will.

The other potential interesting player is Decimus Junius Brutus. IIRC he was the governor of Transalpine Gaul at this time and had at least 2 legions under his command. Given Decimus' OTL willingness to join the assassination plot against Caesar, he might be willing to ally with the Optimates.

As to the Egyptian legions specifically, Tiberius Claudius Nero seems to be the most likely candidate for assuming command, which is relevant here since he was a optimate at heart; thus, he may be inclined to switch sides if the one he’s on suddenly has a crisis of leadership.

The other thing about the situation in the east is most of the troops Caesar used to garrison Asia Minor, Syria, and Egypt at this time were former Pompeian troops that he had captured at Pharsalus. (And IOTL just the rumor that Caesar had been killed in Africa was enough to get the legion in Syria to mutiny against their Caesarian governor.) Thus regardless of who is in command in the east, there's a very strong possibility those troops will go over to the Optimates upon learning about the death of Caesar. That said the forces in the east are relatively small and will be having to deal with the wars in both Egypt and against Pharnaces, so I don't think they are likely to play a major role in the coming clash in Africa.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@bguy Excellent stuff! Thinking more about it, if Decimus Brutus can be brought over independently to the Optimate side, and the Eastern forces are likely leaning that way anyway, then it's worth noting that technically Lepidus doesn't have to be bribed to fight for one side or the other; Cato might be the more pridefully stubborn than Antony, but he only needs Lepidus to sit tight in Spain, while Antony is kind of screwed if he can't get those consolidated troops to hook up with his own. And I think OTL shows that it's in Lepidus' character to do absolutely nothing if doing so de facto puts him on what looks to be the winning side.

It's also funny you brought up the prospect of Antony's legions defecting to Dolabella, because I was kind of imagining something like that myself. And you also mention Antony going around making forced loans in a desperate attempt to pay his troops. And both times, I thought to myself -- crazy as the idea might sound -- "I wonder if Cato would seriously consider agreeing to a policy of debt forgiveness as a means of securing peace in Italy?" Sure, his friend (and Dolabella's father-in-law) Cicero would be vigorously opposed to such a thing, but those two didn't always see eye to eye.

 

[bguy]

It's hard to say with Lepidus. Most of the time he was a pretty cautious guy who liked to hedge his bets, but every now and then he would make a surprisingly aggressive move. (Witness him siding with Antonius even after Antonius' defeat at Mutina or him trying to claim Sicily after the defeat of Sextus Pompey.) I personally think he'll end up throwing in with Antonius just because Antonius is probably willing to offer enough to really make it worth his while (if Cato, through gritted teeth, agrees to give Lepidus a consulship for his neutrality, Antonius will probably promise him a consulship, a triumph, his daughter marrying Lepidus's son, and Lepidus being made the Pontifex Maximus to secure Lepidus' active support), but Lepidus deciding to take a wait and see approach is also perfectly plausible.

As for Cato, I can't see him supporting debt forgiveness. While Cato wasn't nearly as reactionary as people sometimes think (he sponsored a massive expansion of the grain dole while tribune of the plebs after all), debt forgiveness is a really radical policy that will be anathema to pretty much all the leading Optimates.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

As for Cato, I can't see him supporting debt forgiveness. While Cato wasn't nearly as reactionary as people sometimes think (he sponsored a massive expansion of the grain dole while tribune of the plebs after all), debt forgiveness is a really radical policy that will be anathema to pretty much all the leading Optimates.

That is more than fair. Would you say, at least, that Dolabella has a better chance of surviving the next couple of years and reemerging as a force in Roman politics than Mark Antony does in this situation?

And I suppose we can also move to the main question -- what would a "Republic restored" by the Optimates actually look like?

 

[bguy]

That is more than fair. Would you say, at least, that Dolabella has a better chance of surviving the next couple of years and reemerging as a force in Roman politics than Mark Antony does in this situation?

I suspect I'm quite a bit more bullish about Antonius' chances against the Optimates in this scenario then you are. Yes, he's potentially got Optimate armies in Transalpine Gaul, the eastern provinces, and Africa to face, but it's also going to be very hard for the disparate Optimate armies to coordinate their actions, and each of those forces has its own weaknesses. Decimus Brutus only has a couple of legions and thus can't really risk taking any offensive action on his own, the eastern legions are scattered over a wide area and are going to be bogged down in two separate wars, and the African legions are handicapped by having Metellus Scipio as their commander. Conversely, most of Caesar's veteran legions are in Italy, and while Antonius will have to pay through the nose to secure their support, if he can get them, they are Rome's most capable soldiers at this time, controlling Italy (and Cisalpine Gaul) also means Antonius controls the best recruiting grounds which will give him the advantage in any drawn out conflict, and Antonius himself is a decent general (and has an excellent subordinate general in Publius Ventidius Bassus.)

And I suppose we can also move to the main question -- what would a "Republic restored" by the Optimates actually look like?

If the Optimates do win then presumably the first thing that will happen is a round of proscriptions aimed at Caesar's more ardent partisans.

The Optimates will also presumably keep the laws that Pompey brought in during his consulship in 52 BC. His law requiring a 5 year gap between a magistracy and going to govern a province is actually a pretty clever way to try and break the cycle of aspiring politicians running up huge debts to bribe their way into elective office and then going off and plundering the provinces/waging war on their neighbors to pay off their debts. If the law is actually consistently enforced then it could go a long way towards reigning in electoral corruption and provincial abuse in the Republic.

Cato also seemed to really hate corruption among the publicani. (He led the fight against the remission of the Asian tax contracts and had also tried to extend the bribery laws so that knight jurors would also be subject to prosecution if they took bribes.) Thus we'll likely see a renewed push from him to clip the publicani's wings though I don't know if he'll actually succeed in getting anything passed as the publicani have a lot of power in Rome.

I would not expect the Optimates to be able to stay united for very long though, as I imagine there will quickly be a split between the Catonians and the Pompeians. (I don't think this will lead to a civil war or anything like that just that they will be political enemies.) The Catonians will presumably include Cato, Marcus Favonius, Marcus Junius Brutus, and maybe Gnaeus Domitius Ahenobarbus. The Pompeians will presumably include the Pompey brothers, Titus Labienus, Lucius Afranius, and maybe Metellus Scipio (though he will doubtlessly regard it as his faction.)

On the foreign policy front, Egypt probably stays independent as the Optimates won't want to risk any one man getting all the prestige and wealth that comes from conquering it. As I've always had something of a soft spot for Arsinoe, I do like that in this timeline she is going to be remembered as the absolute badass queen that brought down Julius Caesar and kept her country free from Rome.

Pharnaces presumably still gets squashed like a bug. (If Titus Labienus makes it to the consulship then this might be his one opportunity for an independent command.)

Numidia is presumably rewarded for its support of the Optimates by getting to annex a good chunk of Mauretania. (This might be another source of friction between the Catonians and Pompeians, as the Pompeians will want to assist their ally King Juba in conquering Mauretania while the Catonians will likely be opposed to such a war.)

IOTL The Parthians certainly seemed to favor the Optimates/Liberators during the civil wars (not attacking Syria even after Pompey withdrew the two legions from the province, sending troops to assist Quintus Caecilius Bassus during his rebellion, sending troops to fight for Brutus and Cassius at Philippi), so at least initially there will probably be peace between Optimate Rome and Parthia.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If the Optimates do win then presumably the first thing that will happen is a round of proscriptions aimed at Caesar's more ardent partisans.

Yeah, that checks.

The Optimates will also presumably keep the laws that Pompey brought in during his consulship in 52 BC. His law requiring a 5 year gap between a magistracy and going to govern a province is actually a pretty clever way to try and break the cycle of aspiring politicians running up huge debts to bribe their way into elective office and then going off and plundering the provinces/waging war on their neighbors to pay off their debts. If the law is actually consistently enforced then it could go a long way towards reigning in electoral corruption and provincial abuse in the Republic.

Cato also seemed to really hate corruption among the publicani. (He led the fight against the remission of the Asian tax contracts and had also tried to extend the bribery laws so that knight jurors would also be subject to prosecution if they took bribes.) Thus we'll likely see a renewed push from him to clip the publicani's wings though I don't know if he'll actually succeed in getting anything passed as the publicani have a lot of power in Rome.

I would not expect the Optimates to be able to stay united for very long though, as I imagine there will quickly be a split between the Catonians and the Pompeians. (I don't think this will lead to a civil war or anything like that just that they will be political enemies.) The Catonians will presumably include Cato, Marcus Favonius, Marcus Junius Brutus, and maybe Gnaeus Domitius Ahenobarbus. The Pompeians will presumably include the Pompey brothers, Titus Labienus, Lucius Afranius, and maybe Metellus Scipio (though he will doubtlessly regard it as his faction.)

On the foreign policy front, Egypt probably stays independent as the Optimates won't want to risk any one man getting all the prestige and wealth that comes from conquering it. As I've always had something of a soft spot for Arsinoe, I do like that in this timeline she is going to be remembered as the absolute badass queen that brought down Julius Caesar and kept her country free from Rome.
Numidia is presumably rewarded for its support of the Optimates by getting to annex a good chunk of Mauretania. (This might be another source of friction between the Catonians and Pompeians, as the Pompeians will want to assist their ally King Juba in conquering Mauretania while the Catonians will likely be opposed to such a war.).

Fascinating. Regarding Egypt, I can certainly see Cato’s faction being fine with that outcome, but I wonder if the Pompeians being chill about it (especially if Pompey’s sons or Labienus have anything to say about it). I also wonder what other very-likeky-to-be leading figures, like Cicero, make of this new political dynamic; I was going to ask about Cassius as well, but it seems he may end up rendezvousing with Pharnaces instead (since Caesar won’t be intercepting him), and so his career could be over. If I’m right about Egypt being a dividing issue, I imagine Tiberius (or whoever comes out of Egypt commanding the two legions) would be supporting the Pompeians.

Also, I really like the thought of Parthia and Rome being cool with each other around this time -- there really was no need at all, aside from the peculiarities of politics, to escalate conflict between them after Carrhae to the extent they did. (Whether they go to war over Armenia over a century after the PoD, and then keep going to war, is another matter entirely.)

 

[bguy]

Fascinating. Regarding Egypt, I can certainly see Cato’s faction being fine with that outcome, but I wonder if the Pompeians being chill about it (especially if Pompey’s sons or Labienus have anything to say about it).

Hmmm, that's an interesting point about the Pompeian faction and Egypt. Still, I don't think anyone in Rome blamed Arsinoe for Pompey's death. (Just the fact that the Roman people were very sympathetic to her when she walked in Caesar's triumph and begged Caesar to spare her life suggests that they didn't blame her as I don't think they would have been nearly as sympathetic towards her if they thought she had any role in the death of Pompey.) And of the people that could be deemed responsible, Achillas and Pothineus are already dead (with Achillas having been executed by Arsione no less), and I agree with LumineVonReuental that once Caesar is dead, Cleopatra will have Ptolemy XIII killed. Thus the only people still alive that can really be blamed for the murder of Pompey are Lucius Septimius and Theodotus. If Arsinoe surrenders both of them to the Pompey brothers that might be enough to satisfy them.

I also wonder what other very-likeky-to-be leading figures, like Cicero, make of this new political dynamic;

Cicero likely takes a pretty big influence hit due to him having returned to Italy after Pharsalus. I can't imagine that either the Catonians or the Pompeians will think very highly of him.

I was going to ask about Cassius as well, but it seems he may end up rendezvousing with Pharnaces instead (since Caesar won’t be intercepting him), and so his career could be over. If I’m right about Egypt being a dividing issue, I imagine Tiberius (or whoever comes out of Egypt commanding the two legions) would be supporting the Pompeians.

I wouldn't necessarily count Cassius out too quickly. If there is a Pompeian uprising among the legions in the east then Cassius is very likely to end up as their leader given his reputation as a military commander, and I think Cassius can beat Pharnaces if they end up facing off in battle.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If the Optimates do win then presumably the first thing that will happen is a round of proscriptions aimed at Caesar's more ardent partisans.

Just for funsies, I decided to go over potential names of men who could end up on such a proscription list. Some Caesarians, like Lepidus and Decimus Brutus, are likely spared due to commanding legions that Cato looks to make peace with; and some populares, like Dolabella, probably don't listed since they were never actually loyal to Caesar's faction, and actually went on to be a very helpful thorn in his side; and some relatives of Caesar, like Gaius Octavius, are likely simply not considered due to not being of particular threat or value.

So who does that leave? Well, quite a few names actually. We can assume Mark Antony himself is listed, assuming he isn't killed before the Optimate army even arrives; I also expect Publius Vatinus is going to be one of the first names given; and Aulus Hirtius has a fair bit of pull with the Caesarians as well. I also expect Trebonius and Calenus will get listed, as will some other leading relatives of Caesar, like Quintus Pedius and Lucius Julius Caesar (both, father and son); Lucius Roscias Fabutas and Gaius Caninus Rebilus are also likely listed, since the Pompeians will remember them from negotiations. And Plancus, ever the survivor OTL, may not be surviving here. So at least a dozen or so names, possibly more.

Cicero likely takes a pretty big influence hit due to him having returned to Italy after Pharsalus. I can't imagine that either the Catonians or the Pompeians will think very highly of him.

Hm, now that's something I hadn't considered, though I suppose it does make sense.

I wouldn't necessarily count Cassius out too quickly. If there is a Pompeian uprising among the legions in the east then Cassius is very likely to end up as their leader given his reputation as a military commander, and I think Cassius can beat Pharnaces if they end up facing off in battle.

Also good to know.

 

[bguy]

Just for funsies, I decided to go over potential names of men who could end up on such a proscription list. Some Caesarians, like Lepidus and Decimus Brutus, are likely spared due to commanding legions that Cato looks to make peace with; and some populares, like Dolabella, probably don't listed since they were never actually loyal to Caesar's faction, and actually went on to be a very helpful thorn in his side; and some relatives of Caesar, like Gaius Octavius, are likely simply not considered due to not being of particular threat or value.

So who does that leave? Well, quite a few names actually. We can assume Mark Antony himself is listed, assuming he isn't killed before the Optimate army even arrives; I also expect Publius Vatinus is going to be one of the first names given; and Aulus Hirtius has a fair bit of pull with the Caesarians as well. I also expect Trebonius and Calenus will get listed, as will some other leading relatives of Caesar, like Quintus Pedius and Lucius Julius Caesar (both, father and son); Lucius Roscias Fabutas and Gaius Caninus Rebilus are also likely listed, since the Pompeians will remember them from negotiations. And Plancus, ever the survivor OTL, may not be surviving here. So at least a dozen or so names, possibly more.

Good list. I agree with all those names save for Lucius Julius Caesar the younger (as the only member of Caesar's family that fought for the Optimates he will be safe), and I suspect that the ever shifty Plancus will manage to jump ship at the right moment to save his own neck.

Some other likely targets for Optimate proscriptions...

-Gaius Oppius and Lucius Calpurnius Balbus, Caesar's bankers and top political fixers. These two are certain to be at the top of the list.
-Sextus Julius Caesar. I personally think Sextus was probably Caesar's heir at this time as Caesar seemed to like him, and he was a closer relative to Caesar than Marcus Antonius was. (Sextus being a first cousin once removed while Antonius was a third cousin once removed.)
-The other Antony brothers. (Gaius for sure. Lucius might be young enough to be spared.)
-Gnaeus Domitius Calvinus. (A consular that sided with Caesar and who commanded the Caesarian center at Pharsalus.)
-Publius Servilius Vatia Isauricus (served as consul alongside Caesar in 48 BC).
-Publius Cornelius Sulla (commanded a wing of the Caesarian forces at Pharsalus.)
-Gaius Vibius Pansa (he seems to have been highly regarded by Caesar)
-Gaius Rabirius Postumus (another prominent banker that was allied to Caesar.)
-Quintus Cassius Longinus (if his OTL death is butterflied.)
-Publius Ventidius Bassus (likely a key subordinate of Antonius during the Antony-Optimate civil war. And as an aside if there is anyone ITTL who is likely to become a Sertorius/Sextus Pompey type figure, leading a dogged resistance long after the main civil war is over, it's probably going to be Ventidius who is almost certainly the best general the Caesarians have once Caesar is dead.)

An interesting question is Quintus Cornificius. He would have been the commander of Caesarian forces in Illyricum at the time of Caesar's death and had at least 2 legions under his command. Cornificius doesn't seem to have gotten along with Antonius though as IOTL when Antonius came to power he tried to have Cornificius removed as governor of Africa (Cornificius refused to give up the province) and once the Second Triumvirate came to power, Antonius had Cornificius proscribed and eventually killed. I don't know the origins of why Antonius and Cornificius were opposed to each other and if their enmity already existed in 47 BC, but if it did then Cornificius is probably in the same postion as Lepidus and Decimus Brutus as a Caesarian general who commands enough troops to be able to potentially make a deal with the Optimates.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@bguy Excellent additions! I had mostly forgotten or hadn't known most of those names,* and they all make perfect sense. So that brings the total agreed list to around 20 known names; given history records about 75 names of the supposed 520 in Sulla's purges, I'd estimate the total list here is likely to be somewhere north of about 100 names (so definitely notable, but still far short of the other known proscriptions, both past and the OTL ones of the Second Triumvirate).

*with two exceptions -- Sextus Julius Caesar, who I imagine will be commanding troops in against the Pontics (I admit to have just been imagining that he dies in the campaign to make things easier); and of course Pansa, Hirtius' OTL co-consul, who I was a bit on the fence about

 

[bguy]

@bguy Excellent additions! I had mostly forgotten or hadn't known most of those names,* and they all make perfect sense. So that brings the total agreed list to around 20 known names; given history records about 75 names of the supposed 520 in Sulla's purges, I'd estimate the total list here is likely to be somewhere north of about 100 names (so definitely notable, but still far short of the other known proscriptions, both past and the OTL ones of the Second Triumvirate).

That number seems about right. Caesar just hasn't been in power long enough to build up a huge number of adherents for the Optimates to go after.

One other interesting thing to consider about Optimate proscriptions is that we know that Cato utterly loathed the practice of the state paying bounties to people that went after the proscribed. (As a quaestor he led an effort to force the Sullan era bounty hunters to pay back the money they received from the state for killing proscription victims.) If Cato sticks to his guns and refuses to support placing bounties on the proscribed (and if he can bludgeon the rest of the Optimates into going along with him on this point) then it's likely that a lot of the proscribed men will escape with their lives. (Of course this is likely going to be another major friction point with the Pompeians who will want to bounties to make the proscriptions effective.)

*with two exceptions -- Sextus Julius Caesar, who I imagine will be commanding troops in against the Pontics (I admit to have just been imagining that he dies in the campaign to make things easier); and of course Pansa, Hirtius' OTL co-consul, who I was a bit on the fence about

Yeah, given that Sextus is almost certainly in the east at the time of Caesar's death (either in Egypt with Caesar or if not there then in Syria), his life expectancy could be very short should the eastern legions defect upon learning of Caesar's death. That said a lot depends on if Sextus is actually in Syria or Egypt at the time of Caesar's death. If he's in Syria then the closest Roman troops are former Pompeian soldiers, and Sextus is in a very vulnerable position. If he's in Egypt then there are Caesarean veterans there (the VI and XXVII Legions) that might be willing to support him but of course they're under siege by the Egyptians and Sextus will also have to deal with Tiberius Claudius Nero who probably isn't too keen on continuing the fight in Alexandria. The question in that case is really what will the legions want. Will they want to avenge Caesar (in which case they'll probably support Sextus) or do they just want to be out of Egypt (in which case they'll presumably back Nero.)

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

One other interesting thing to consider about Optimate proscriptions is that we know that Cato utterly loathed the practice of the state paying bounties to people that went after the proscribed. (As a quaestor he led an effort to force the Sullan era bounty hunters to pay back the money they received from the state for killing proscription victims.) If Cato sticks to his guns and refuses to support placing bounties on the proscribed (and if he can bludgeon the rest of the Optimates into going along with him on this point) then it's likely that a lot of the proscribed men will escape with their lives. (Of course this is likely going to be another major friction point with the Pompeians who will want to bounties to make the proscriptions effective.)

Yet more reason for the Catonians and Pompeians to splinter after the war.

On which point, I'd also note that the socio-economic context that more or less makes "populism" a thing in Rome (basically the material program of the populares) is still very much present, so even if the optimates were to decide to deal with rabble rousers like Dolabella when they took Rome (which I don't think they'd be united on), Rome would still produce more such men in just a few years time. Which might seem a bit of a rote point at first, until you consider -- would they Catonians and Pompeians really stick to their guns so hard as to make this utterly isolated third faction in Roman politics, or would one or the other find enough common ground with them that they would show preference and possibly even elbow their way into their political coalition?

If it's the latter, I'm actually inclined to think Cato would be more likely to find common ground -- just one small example., as mentioned, he was flexible enough to expand the grain dole when he was tribune. But what's more, the things that really got Cato's goat were things like corruption among the publicani, and politicians using their imperium abroad to extort foreigners and provincials for their own personal gain, effectively ignoring the will or the greater good of the republic (in foreign and provincial affairs) in the process.* And this is what I've noticed -- one of the major factors in both publicani corruption and in provincial corruption was debt, specifically unscrupulous rich men funding public careers of men who then go into debt, with the expectation that they will utilize public corruption to pay back their debtor. Given this context, I don't expect Cato would have a lot of sympathy for some of the lenders in Roman society (or at least not the one giving out the big loans). So perhaps more common ground between his supporters and the more radical populares is possible than we might otherwise think.

Anyway, this is really interesting to think about.

*Caesar's Wars in Gaul, of course, being the prime example

-----CONSOLIDATE------

Here’s something -- this PoD (and short term subsequent events) might be the best and/or only way to put Cato the Younger in a position to remake the Roman Republic. Which, depending on what you think about Cato (and lord knows, people to this day think plenty of different things about him), might just make it the best chance of saving the republic (with a PoD in the Post-Sulla period, anyway).

 

[bguy]

Would Cato really be able to affect that much change though even following an Optimate victory in the civil war? The Catonian faction itself was hit pretty hard by the war with Cato's two main allies (Lucius Domitius Ahenobarbus and Marcus Calpurnius Bibulus) both dying in the conflict. Cato's biggest ally in the aftermath of the civil war is probably going to be Marcus Junius Brutus, but Brutus for all his pretensions of virtue and claimed admiration for Cato is a massive hypocrite (being a horrific loan shark that ruthlessly exploited the provinces) and thus I don't see him being an advocate for any meaningful reform.

Conversely, the Pompeians seem to be in a very strong position here. They have the immense wealth and clientele of Pompey, an alliance with the Claudii (through Gnaeus Pompeius being married to the daughter of Appius Claudius Pulcher) and probably an alliance with Metellus Scipio. (While the Pompeius family's marriage alliance with Metellus Scipio ended with the death of Pompey, given that Metellus Scipio has considerable negative history with both Cato and Marcus Favonius (the later of which once tried to prosecute him), I think Scipio is likely to stay allied with the Pompeians.) Their faction will also likely to get most of the credit for the victory over Antonius since it will be Metellus Scipio and Titus Labienus that led the Optimate armies to victory in that war (while several of the leading Catonians will be men like Brutus and Marcus Favonius who surrendered to Caesar at Pharsalus.) And while the Pompeians won't necessarily oppose all reforms, they will oppose the most important measure the Republic needs to survive (a prohibition against extended proconsular commands) because Gnaeus and Sextus are both going to want their own extended proconsular commands someday, so that they can try and prove themselves great conquerors like their father.

Thus I expect Cato will spend the years after the civil war just trying to keep the Pompeians in check, and while he'll probably be able to keep them from dominating the Roman political scene (Cato was pretty good at playing defense, and doubtlessly there will be plenty of other leading Romans that will be nervous about the Pompeians getting too powerful), I don't think he'll be able to enact any significant reforms (since even trying to do so would risk losing much of his noble support to the Pompeians.)

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Would Cato really be able to affect that much change though even following an Optimate victory in the civil war? The Catonian faction itself was hit pretty hard by the war with Cato's two main allies (Lucius Domitius Ahenobarbus and Marcus Calpurnius Bibulus) both dying in the conflict. Cato's biggest ally in the aftermath of the civil war is probably going to be Marcus Junius Brutus, but Brutus for all his pretensions of virtue and claimed admiration for Cato is a massive hypocrite (being a horrific loan shark that ruthlessly exploited the provinces) and thus I don't see him being an advocate for any meaningful reform.

Re Brutus, that is an accurate assessment. Re Biblius, I honestly think any faction that counts him as a member would only get more competent with his death. Overall fair point.

Conversely, the Pompeians seem to be in a very strong position here. They have the immense wealth and clientele of Pompey, an alliance with the Claudii (through Gnaeus Pompeius being married to the daughter of Appius Claudius Pulcher) and probably an alliance with Metellus Scipio. (While the Pompeius family's marriage alliance with Metellus Scipio ended with the death of Pompey, given that Metellus Scipio has considerable negative history with both Cato and Marcus Favonius (the later of which once tried to prosecute him), I think Scipio is likely to stay allied with the Pompeians.) Their faction will also likely to get most of the credit for the victory over Antonius since it will be Metellus Scipio and Titus Labienus that led the Optimate armies to victory in that war (while several of the leading Catonians will be men like Brutus and Marcus Favonius who surrendered to Caesar at Pharsalus.) And while the Pompeians won't necessarily oppose all reforms, they will oppose the most important measure the Republic needs to survive (a prohibition against extended proconsular commands) because Gnaeus and Sextus are both going to want their own extended proconsular commands someday, so that they can try and prove themselves great conquerors like their father.

Thus I expect Cato will spend the years after the civil war just trying to keep the Pompeians in check, and while he'll probably be able to keep them from dominating the Roman political scene (Cato was pretty good at playing defense, and doubtlessly there will be plenty of other leading Romans that will be nervous about the Pompeians getting too powerful)...

Yeah, this all makes sense actually; despite his nominal position of command, Cato is hardly to be able to start changing things in Rome the moment "his" forces retake the city. That said, he does start as the de facto leader of the "loyal opposition" to the now dominant "Pompeians"; if we assume the first full calendar year of the "new regime" is 46 BC (with 47 BC being the year of transition), then it will probably take a few years at minimum (of politicking, coalition shifting, and looking for new talent), before there's any serious possibility of the Catonians getting enough power to push reforms. Maybe it's plausible they win elections for 42 BC?

I don't think he'll be able to enact any significant reforms (since even trying to do so would risk losing much of his noble support to the Pompeians.)

Not at first, no; but since I see little reason for Roman politics to become static here, the question should really be "how much time before the continued lack of reforms starts causing problems again?"

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I don't think Cato has any love for Lepidus over Mark Anthony. This is one guy who can't stand any deviation from the law from political enemies. The funny thing is during the time of the first triumvirate, he ran for consul but refused to bribe people and therefore couldn't win. He kept telling his political allies to stop doing illegal things and denounced his political enemies for going outside the law. I would call him inflexible, but with some lines he'd dare not cross. In fact, if he didn't commit suicide, I think he would have refused to participate in any assassination attempt on Caesar despite his hatred for the guy. As a prominent optimate with wealthy family and untainted by either corruption or trying to assassinate the dictator, he might have had a chance to sway the public when Octavian turned on Cicero and the Senate.

I don't think he'd cut a deal with Lepidus. That said, the situation in Rome was getting more tense every week Caesar was in Africa (or Egypt for that matter) and it is possible the Caesarians might face an angry mob. Caesar promised to resolve things once the Pompeians were delt with in Africa and this kept the urban masses from getting restless. I think the city even rioted once during this time period.

So Cato's plain is probably just wait for some crisis to happen and then land in Italy once an opportunity arrives. He was one of the ones to suggest to Pompey that they should take most of their army and go to Italy while some garrisons in Greece stop Caesar from doing damage after Dyrrachium. Like most of the Senators, he didn't push Pompey when Pompey said he'd rather seek one decisive battle because, hey this guy commanded armies and was considered Rome's top general at that time (don't forget before Pharsalus Caesar was always considered not quite as good as Pompey, but even Pompey's supporters said after Pharsalus that they were wrong on who was the better general), so if Pompey said going to Rome wasn't as good as fighting, surely he was right.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

This is one guy who can't stand any deviation from the law from political enemies. The funny thing is during the time of the first triumvirate, he ran for consul but refused to bribe people and therefore couldn't win. He kept telling his political allies to stop doing illegal things and denounced his political enemies for going outside the law. I would[n't] call him inflexible, but with some lines he'd dare not cross. In fact, if he didn't commit suicide, I think he would have refused to participate in any assassination attempt on Caesar despite his hatred for the guy.

That's actually a pretty good summary of Cato's character. "Some lines he would not cross" is actually a good way to think about what Cato would or would not be willing to consider in this scenario. So that being said:

I don't think Cato has any love for Lepidus over Mark Anthony... I don't think he'd cut a deal with Lepidus.

I think finding something small to politically bribe a guy with multiple legions to sit and do nothing, while your own forces can deal with the major threat at hand, is something Cato would be willing to do. Remember Lepidus, at this point, is just another of Caesar's generals, while Mark Antony is currently stationed in Italy, lording over and threatening the City of Rome herself (bullying the Senate, letting mobs get out of hand before sending the army in to massacre them, etc).

That said, the situation in Rome was getting more tense every week Caesar was in Africa (or Egypt for that matter) and it is possible the Caesarians might face an angry mob. Caesar promised to resolve things once the Pompeians were delt with in Africa and this kept the urban masses from getting restless. I think the city even rioted once during this time period... So Cato's plain is probably just wait for some crisis to happen and then land in Italy once an opportunity arrives.

Well, as you mentioned, Cato did also defer to military minds that were significantly more experienced than his own as well; and if the crazy s*** that was happening in Italy at this time wasn't a crisis worthy of exploitation, I don't know what is. Here's what I think -- if Cato isn't looking for Mark Antony to negotiate his surrender, then he's not inclined to sit around and wait for the guy to come around; right now, in 47 BC, his legions are rebelling, the city is rebelling against him, and the city is ripe of "saving". So if Antony (or whoever takes command of the Italian legions) doesn't straight up surrender before then, we could be looking at the African legions landing in Italy sometime in 47 BC.

What do you guys think?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

right now, in 47 BC, his legions are rebelling, the city is rebelling against him, and the city is ripe of "saving".

Yeah that's the right time, probably

the legions might not rebel immediately though. I think the city might fall into chaos before the legions munity though.

I know OTL the legions munitined befre Ceasar appeased thme, but maybe Lepdius and mark Anthony might be able to find... something.

 

[bguy]

Re Brutus, that is an accurate assessment. Re Biblius, I honestly think any faction that counts him as a member would only get more competent with his death. Overall fair point.

Heh! Though that might be a little unfair too Bibulus who, while certainly not the most dynamic or capable of figures did have some virtues. He was able to win elections (something Cato had trouble with, he was willing to take on thankless tasks (just considering him basically tanking his entire consulship just to call doubt about the legality of Caesar's laws), and he was certainly a hard worker (during the civil war he basically worked himself to death keeping up the blockade of Caesar's forces.)

Yeah, this all makes sense actually; despite his nominal position of command, Cato is hardly to be able to start changing things in Rome the moment "his" forces retake the city. That said, he does start as the de facto leader of the "loyal opposition" to the now dominant "Pompeians"; if we assume the first full calendar year of the "new regime" is 46 BC (with 47 BC being the year of transition), then it will probably take a few years at minimum (of politicking, coalition shifting, and looking for new talent), before there's any serious possibility of the Catonians getting enough power to push reforms. Maybe it's plausible they win elections for 42 BC?

That seems plausible. The one thing the Catonians have going for them is that in 46 BC both Gnaeus and Sextus Pompeius are more than a decade too young to legally stand for the consulship (and neither really did anything in the civil war that would justify giving them an exemption to the law), while Metellus Scipio and Appius Claudius Pulcher have both been consul within ten years and thus shouldn't be able to stand for it again yet either.

Not at first, no; but since I see little reason for Roman politics to become static here, the question should really be "how much time before the continued lack of reforms starts causing problems again?"

Well the thing is that Pompey's laws and acts during his 52 BC consulship did potentially address several of the Republic's most pressing issues. Pompey pretty much demonstrated that year how to successfully suppress urban violence (and how to successfully prosecute gang leaders) with how he stomped on Milo, and his law on provincial governors (if enforced) has a decent chance of helping to reduce the twin evils of electoral bribery and provincial misrule. Likewise if the civil wars are truly over then Rome will have a secure grain supply which will do a lot to prevent unrest in Rome itself. Rural banditry is definitely going to be a big problem if the Optimates don't properly discharge the surviving Caesarian veterans but if the Optimates aren't fighting a bunch of foreign wars then they should be able to eventually suppress the bandits. That's why I think the Republic's biggest long term problem is the extended provincial commands since that's what raises the prospect of another Caesar with an army under his command that could plausibly overthrow the Republic.

I don't think Cato has any love for Lepidus over Mark Anthony.

Lepidus is married to Cato's niece (and Brutus's half-sister.) That familial connection might give Cato a reason to be willing to deal with Lepidus.

I know OTL the legions munitined befre Ceasar appeased thme, but maybe Lepdius and mark Anthony might be able to find... something.

For what it's worth Kathryn Welch in her article, "The Career of M. Aemilius Lepidus 49-44 B.C.) says that Lepidus prepared the debt relief legislation that Caesar promulgated upon his return to Italy in 47 BC.

"Popular agitation, particularly concerning debt, was held in check until the following year, while at the same time, legislation on this question was prepared for Caesar to sponsor when he returned."
"The Career of M. Aemilius Lepidus 49-44 B.C.", pg. 448

If Ms. Welch is correct about Lepidus helping to prepare the debt relief measures that Caesar ended up adopting, and if Lepidus and Antonius do form an alliance ITTL (which I think is likely) then it's very possible that Antonius will end up enacting those laws (which should help calm things in Rome itself.)

As for the Italian legions, I think Antonius and Lepidus will just end up buying their loyalty.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@bguy On the longer term threat of extended provincial commands -- that sounds like exactly the kind of issue Cato and his faction would be trying to warn people about.

On Lepidus -- great catch on his familial connection to Cato and his work on debt relief! I’m actually more sure now he can be convinced to sit out a confrontation between Antony and the Optimates.* Then, if Cato does see need for reform, he has someone who could potentially offer insight for his faction.

*incidentally, I’d be partial to seeing Gneaus Pompey in particular die during this fighting; no bearing on plausibility and nothing so much against him personally, it’s just that I feel we can make far better inferences about the potential talent of his brother, Sextus, then we could about him, and if the “winning” are going to have casualties anyway…