In the 2012-2013 period of the Syrian Civil War, media outlets speculated on the possible outcome of the conflict, especially since ISIS was not yet an apparent threat and the US was considering an intervention similar to that in Libya. In the midst of the chaos, Alawite minority groups in the Syrian coastal regions, purported to be Assad supporters, established defensive positions and prepared for the worst if Damascus and Aleppo were to fall to the Sunni-dominated opposition, and the prospect of a breakaway state was discussed in the international stage. Ultimately, however, the lack of a western airstrike campaign (they prefered to arm groups such as the FSA) and the ISIS uprising in the Jazira region flipped the whole board upside down as the pressure on Damascus was lessened, the anti-Assad groups started to fight one another, and the Rojava Kurds joined the fray in full force as a new player, thus effectively saving the Baathist regime.
But what if the early FSA rebels had somehow taken over Damascus and Aleppo (Romney defeats Obama and orders airstrikes?), forcing the Assad family to flee to the Latakia and Tartus governorates where they'd be able to mount a defense with the help of local Alawite groups and perhaps Russia and Iran? In the end, Syria is split between an Abkhazian-like unrecognized Alawite state in the coast and an FSA-dominated central government in the rest of the country that refuses to accept the former's de facto independence but is too weak to fully dispute it.
What sort of geopolitical situation would this create in the region? Most likely the Alawite Republic would be a Russian foothold and proxy base in the Mediterranean, fiercely disputing its sovereignty with Damascus and with territorial claims on Turkish-controlled Hatay, which has an Alawite minority. The Free Syrian Republic (?) would be a neutral regime inheriting previous Baathist disputes over the Golan Heights and Hatay, except now deprived of a coastline and with possible Kurdish and Druze minority unrest in its periphery, adding to its challenges. Both entities would be hostile to Israel. Any other thoughts? How would the refugee situation be handled?
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