What if United States invaded North Vietnam during Vietnam war?

Riain

Banned
It doesn't have to escalate into a disaster if the US keeps it war aims limited. I like the idea of a spoiling attack- raid as it plays to US strengths and to NthV weakness. I also like the idea of provoking a chinese intervention as long as doesn't hang around to fight it and withdraws. Then the NthV have all their war materiel destroyed, their units gutted in stand-up battles with the US and a large Chinese contingent on their territory that isn't needed because the U.S. has gone.

Outcome, SthV is left alone for a couple of years.
 

racevedo88

armchair General magazine published by the same publisher as Military history Quarterly, ran this Scenario in one of their articles
 

raharris1973

Sam R. said:
The problem being that the natural government of southern Vietnam is still being internally determined.
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I'll do the translating here for folks who aren't grokking @Sam R.'s meaning:

natural government = NLF/Viet Cong
his argument is that if the bulk of the US forces are up in North Vietnam during the war, they aren't in the south, facing the VC/NLF and whoever the PAVN put down there already. So ARVN's going down without its US forces props, even if the US forces are beating forces PAVN has in the north.
 

Riain

Banned
raharris1973 said:
if the bulk of the US forces are up in North Vietnam during the war, they aren't in the south, facing the VC/NLF and whoever the PAVN put down there already. So ARVN's going down without its US forces props, even if the US forces are beating forces PAVN has in the north
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I wouldn't imagine that the bulk of the US forces would be in the North under almost any invasion plan. The US had about 10 divisions and 10 independent brigades scattered around SthV, i doubt even half of them would leave SthV.
 

Sam R.

For Invasion 1965 I’m assuming I II III and IV corps aren’t stripped and that alongside reserve activation or a German Plain draw down A B C and D corps are stood up in the DRVN. This provides a number of political disadvantages for the US, doesn’t greatly strengthen ARVN policing, reduces RVN government legitimacy with non Catholic and non comprador (the majority of the rural working class).

The DRVN collapses from a military perspective and ends up with fraternal support over the rump northern North Vietnamese controlled regions. The VWP is going to reconfigure into a local resistance movement with high legitimacy and Laotian safe areas. The VWP are unlikely to crack or surrender even if the PAVN ends up as reserve police companies (deactivated) and light infantry battalions. There isn’t a comprador or Catholic elite in the North to legitimise direct US military rule or supply ARVN grade military policing.
 
Slime_blob

Slime_blob

Keep Diem in charge, cuz he basically ordered the ARVN to prepare for an invasion for unification of North Vietnam before he got couped and died
 

Belisarius II

peeter said:
They absolutely would have if the US invaded North Vietnam, not with ground troops but they absolutely would be willing to give the north vietnamese significant air support. The Soviets aren’t just gonna let the US invade NV with no serious retaliation of some kind
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Almost no chance of that. Vietnam was never worth that much to the Soviets. They just sent aid to bleed the Americans like they did in Korea. Why run the risk of war with the Americans if the Chinese will do the fighting, and all you have to do is supply aid?
 

Belisarius II

marathag said:
Just Haiphong is enough to cut off the majority of Warsaw Pact military aid flowing in.
That strangles the insurgency in the South, and forces the PAVN into a stand up fight around the city limits
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Agreed. Mining, and blockading Haiphong, and invading the North up to the point where the Ho Chi Min Trail began was the deepest the Americans would ever need to go. It's problematic if that would trigger a full-scale Chinese intervention. It's just not a threat to China.
 

Belisarius II

Riain said:
I wouldn't imagine that the bulk of the US forces would be in the North under almost any invasion plan. The US had about 10 divisions and 10 independent brigades scattered around SthV, i doubt even half of them would leave SthV.
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Why not? If the U.S. sends its forces into the North, the war in the South dries up because all the Communist supply lines are cut.
 

peeter

Belisarius II said:
They just sent aid to bleed the Americans like they did in Korea
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The soviets gave the north Koreans air support by putting Chinese symbols on their planes to give them plausible deniability. They can just do it again at a larger scale. The US isn’t going to do shit either if they do it
 
marathag

marathag

Banned

Sam R.

Belisarius II said:
Why not? If the U.S. sends its forces into the North, the war in the South dries up because all the Communist supply lines are cut.
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In 1965 the primary supply of the PLAF was the ARVN. The main job of the NFL/PRG was taxation, primarily in the form of food, to convert into—supply.

A 1965 invasion of the DRVN will not significantly impact the NFL/PLAF's capacity to continue their war with the RVN/ARVN. It will impact the capacity of the NFL to maintain light infantry units in manoeuvre war, but it won't impact its taxation system, policing units or political warfare.
 
marathag

marathag

Banned
Sam R. said:
In 1965 the primary supply of the PLAF was the ARVN. The main job of the NFL/PRG was taxation, primarily in the form of food, to convert into—supply.

A 1965 invasion of the DRVN will not significantly impact the NFL/PLAF's capacity to continue their war with the RVN/ARVN. It will impact the capacity of the NFL to maintain light infantry units in manoeuvre war, but it won't impact its taxation system, policing units or political warfare.
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From a 1965 US Intel report
From 1953 to 1964 the Soviet Union gave more than 200 million rubles in military aid to North Vietnam. This material consisted primarily of aircraft, ammunition, artillery, tanks, PT boats and communications equipment. Following the Gulf of Tonkin incident in the summer of 1964, the Soviet Union furnished equipment worth 32 million [rubles] plus 15.6 million rubles’ worth of rockets and other anti-aircraft equipment to North Vietnam. The Soviets also provided instructors to train the North Vietnamese in using this equipment.

As a result of pressure from. Communist China, North Vietnam refused an offer by the Soviets to provide complete air defence units for the city of Hanoi with Soviet personnel. North Vietnam also refused a Soviet offer to provide interceptor aircraft and crews to train North Vietnamese crews in battle. However, an agreement was reached that the Soviet Union would provide aircraft and training for North Vietnamese personnel in the Soviet Union and permit the trained crews to fly these planes back to North Vietnam.

In February 1965, material aid worth an additional 150 million rubles was granted [to] North Vietnam by the Soviets and, following discussions with North Vietnamese leaders in the same month, military aid worth 145 million rubles was given North Vietnam. The latter grant was to be used primarily for airfields with related installations. During these discussions, the Soviets also agreed to replace or rebuild 120 kilometres of damaged railroads and to rebuild or replace bombed bridges and power stations.

Of the total amount of military aid granted to North Vietnam by the Soviets, material worth over 300 million rubles has been delivered in the last few months.

Economic aid from socialist countries

During the period 1953 to 1964, various socialist countries granted a total of 317 million rubles’ worth of economic aid to North Vietnam. Almost one-third of this amount was given gratis. The Soviet Union furnished 40 per cent of the total economic aid. Almost three-fourths of the aid furnished by the Soviet Union consisted of complete industrial plants shipped to North Vietnam. It is hoped that by 1967, 185 new plants will be set up in North Vietnam. At the present time, 85 such industrial plants are in operation. To assist in the economic development of North Vietnam, the Soviet Union has sent 2,148 specialists to that country since 1955.”

So a lot of that industry won't get in, so very reduced AAA capability, and doing a Khe Sanh style siege around Haiphong with the limited supplies coming across the two Chinese RR lines will be very costly in PAVN lives by an even larger degree.
Doing a stand up fight was not their forte.

OTL 80% of the North's military imports came thru Haiphong, 20% across the border, rates stayed stable over 1965-1968
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Belisarius II

peeter said:
The soviets gave the north Koreans air support by putting Chinese symbols on their planes to give them plausible deniability. They can just do it again at a larger scale. The US isn’t going to do shit either if they do it
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The use of Soviet pilots in the Korean War was sporadic, and mostly out of safe Chinese air bases. To do that in Vietnam they'd have to base the fighters on air bases in range of U.S. air power. When they do that, they will get slaughtered. If the Americans are inside the North, and the war has escalated the rules of engagement would obviously change. In the Korean War every base in NK capable of operating jet fighters was effectively destroyed, and the same thing would happen in NV.
 

peeter

Belisarius II said:
The use of Soviet pilots in the Korean War was sporadic, and mostly out of safe Chinese air bases. To do that in Vietnam they'd have to base the fighters on air bases in range of U.S. air power. When they do that, they will get slaughtered. If the Americans are inside the North, and the war has escalated the rules of engagement would obviously change. In the Korean War every base in NK capable of operating jet fighters was effectively destroyed, and the same thing would happen in NV.
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Fair enough
 

Sam R.

marathag said:
[snipped]
So a lot of that industry won't get in, so very reduced AAA capability, and doing a Khe Sanh style siege around Haiphong with the limited supplies coming across the two Chinese RR lines will be very costly in PAVN lives by an even larger degree.
Doing a stand up fight was not their forte.

OTL 80% of the North's military imports came thru Haiphong, 20% across the border, rates stayed stable over 1965-1968
Click to expand...

I was assuming that A & B Corps offensive landings seriously to entirely retards the DRVN's capacity to act as a traditional geographic state and obliterates the PAVN as a force in being, making them take on the political roles that the NFL and PLAF had in the South. Some kind of Rump Flag Show connected by land to the PRC at best, no manoeuvre army existing (or if existing entirely dispersed), an underground state, and years of dead 14-22 year olds in police actions. Because I don't think the PRC are going to be monstrously stupid in the same way twice by picking a land war. And as far as the ARVN patrolled free fire area close to the Chinese border I don't think the US would want the same stupidity again either. If they stop short and agree to only let Vietnamese north of this, we'll only smuggle aid over borders and not counter-invade.

The US would forcing the PAVN into the same supply situation that the PLAF was in during 1961. This is going to give you a force structure similar to the PLAF 1961-1965: local militia, regional political police, few carefully hoarded light infantry units dispersed below concentration. And it is the first two elements that keeps the underground state demanding rice at gun point or collecting the agreed as necessary heroic tax contributions to the people's struggle. Without local catholic elites, and as a result of a foreign invasion, along side the historical evidence from OTL of sustained state legitimacy despite a limited air war and a significant mobilisation in the historical DRVN the state remaining legitimate, after the 4 corps invasion of the North, the DRVN as an underground state will maintain legitimacy. Even more so should the RVN become part of the occupation given the tendency to personal profit in leading RVN figures and the opportunity to reallocate agricultural profits in the newly occupied Northern provinces. So after great sudden military success and the collapse of the apparent enemy, there's an ongoing political problem.

Which leaves the political problem, happening in a higher density environment of rice agriculture, with a US military dabbling in opposed political policing for the first time, while it is either failing to meet its NATO commitments OR under mobilisation. This isn't the post 1990s US military who has sponsored two generations of staff and academic consideration of political warfare. These are the guys who were about to be made obsolete by air bombardment and whose imaginary war is one of organisational diagrams of units meeting in space and expending logistics, not organisational diagrams of committees extracting young men and rice and building legitimacy. And please note I'm making the primary problem for the US the NATO drawdown and/or mobilisation. Should the US choose to do so, its political elites won't face significant opposition from its population over just being in Vietnam and just having kicked the living shit out of a communist government. It will take years for the town's boys not coming home, or coming home different, after patrols to change the minds of the town. Whereas a mobilisation call up is going to piss a lot of people off who wanted to be plumbers or sit on their arse in Germany.

I can't see the US military being willing to engage in an occupation that requires mobilisation or a German draw down lasting long enough until political circumstances in the occupied DRVN change. The VWP is an insanely motivated nationalist organisation: they will quite happily bleed Vietnam to death, and any advantages the US had politically in the RVN have just been massively diluted by occupying the DRVN. I don't see the RVN elite being capable of dealing with the political problem that A-D corps have bought either. I'm casting about for endless low intensity horrors with ineffective central government and the Phillipines comes to mind. Won all the battles but couldn't make a peace.

When do you give up two police actions that are merged that aren't effective but where there's nobody really to surrender to you properly?

* * *

I also think such a scenario would derange the Vietnamese workers party. Historically it was at the low end of bloody, and the high end of rational. I think this would reverse both those whenever the US finds something better to do in 10 years time. And that's going to be even uglier than historically. There'll also be two Vietnams worth of liberation area leaders who heroically withstood for years to … correct to the central line. Two Vietnams worth of orphans and prostitutes to chastise. And far less rationality left in the VWP.

yours,
Sam R.
 
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