What if Empress Elizabeth lives for another year

[Musketeer513]

Empress Elizabeth survives her stroke with minor difficulties but the near death experience has her order her general to destroy Frederick at all cost. In the summer of 1762 Frederick is defeated and commits suicide rather than being captured. Frederick is succeeded by his 18 year old nephew Frederick William as Elector of Brandenburg. The Treaty of Dresden ends the war. Austria regains Silesia. Russia gains East Prussia which is traded to Poland for Courland. France receives Kleve, Mark, Ravensberg, Minden, East Friesland. Even though their contributions were minor to prevent a future rise of Brandenburg all of Pomerania is given to Sweden and Magdeburg is given to Saxony along with the House of Wettin. The territorial changes outside of Europe remain as IOTL.

 

[alexmilman]

Empress Elizabeth survives her stroke with minor difficulties but the near death experience has her order her general to destroy Frederick at all cost.

Would not happen. Soon after Kunersdorf the relations between the Russian (Saltykov and then Buturlin) commanders and von Daun had been steadily going South and after being appointed Buturlin simply kept ignoring Elizabeth’s orders under pretext of preserving the soldiers’ lives. The only active operation was siege of Kolberg (to improve Russian logistics) but most of the Russian forces had been staying on/near the Western PLC border guarding (not too successfully) the magazines.

The orders from St-Petersburg had been rather hollow: the government did not have either money or fresh troops, the Austrians refused to provide the supplies and both PLC and East Prussia already had been exhausted so the supplies had to be brought from the Russian Baltic ports by the sea (hence the siege of Kolberg). Neither was this war excessively popular in the fighting army which was quite exhausted and, on the top of it, considered the Austrian behavior pretty much as a betrayal or an attempt to win a war by the Russian blood.

 

[Musketeer513]

Empress Elizabeth after surviving made destroying Frederick her absolute priority. And after a sample or two of those who did not bow to her wishes were made an example her commanders did there utmost to comply.

 

[alexmilman]

Empress Elizabeth after surviving made destroying Frederick her absolute priority. And after a sample or two of those who did not bow to her wishes were made an example her commanders did there utmost to comply.

She had destruction of Old Fritz her priority and she was giving her commanders orders. She could not keep removing & punishing the commanders because she did not have enough for that type of an exercise and nine of those she had, even if they wanted, had qualification needed for destroying Fritz, namely an adequate talent. Neither did they have a logistics needed for accomplishing such a task: I already explained that the Austrians failed to supply them, that resource of the PLC and East Prussia had been exhausted and that the supplies had to be brought all the way from Russia. This was mid-XVIII century and the armies did not fight without the magazines.

 

[Fulano]

One other question is what Peter would do when he comes in after the peace. With Prussia reduced to just Brandenburg, is he still pro-Brandenburg? Does he instead project his Germanophilia on to Austria? Does he try to create a new Prussian-like state under his control with his new East Prussia holding?

As far I know it was not his alleged Germanophilia (or Prussophilia) the main reason he spared Prussia of its imminent defeat, but more like he wanted Prussia's help into his inevitable war with Denmark for his family lands. He, as the Duchy of Holstein, wanted to gain the rest of the Danish controlled regions in the duchy, and for that he needed all the help he could get, Prussia being the most logical option as they were the powerhouse of the region.
If Prussia fade into irrelevance after the Seven Years' War, I don't really know what would be his next options. Maybe Sweden? The problem with Sweden was, as far I know, that they also claimed part of that duchy, so he would have to make a deal with them, thing that I don't know if Peter really wanted. Probably would defeat the purpose of getting their help, in first place. Or maybe he goes alone in his adventure, but that would also risk into angering the Russians for going into a war with little gain for them.
What happens then, who knows? I don't know what his next steps would be to expand the empire, if he expands it, at all. Maybe he would calm a bit and start to defend and develop what he had, building an alternate Kiel Canal to avoid having to pay the Danes the "Sound Dues" aka the toll fee of the Danish straits, for example.

I have read this was initially considered but the Tsarina went cold on it by the time of her death. I can understand why: with Prussia gone, Russia will likely be able to annex Courland anyway.

Keeping Prussia and wanting to annex Courland after it would be "wanting the cake and eating it", and probably would worry the Polish nobility too much they would be motivated to ask help from other neighbors to counterbalance the Russian expansionism in the region.
Besides once Peter ascends to the throne, he probably would give back the duchy to the Hohenzollerns, anyway. So probably doing the Prussia-Courland change probably would be the best thing Elizabeth could do before dying.

 

[Socrates]

As far I know it was not his alleged Germanophilia (or Prussophilia) the main reason he spared Prussia of its imminent defeat, but more like he wanted Prussia's help into his inevitable war with Denmark for his family lands. He, as the Duchy of Holstein, wanted to gain the rest of the Danish controlled regions in the duchy, and for that he needed all the help he could get, Prussia being the most logical option as they were the powerhouse of the region.
If Prussia fade into irrelevance after the Seven Years' War, I don't really know what would be his next options. Maybe Sweden? The problem with Sweden was, as far I know, that they also claimed part of that duchy, so he would have to make a deal with them, thing that I don't know if Peter really wanted. Probably would defeat the purpose of getting their help, in first place. Or maybe he goes alone in his adventure, but that would also risk into angering the Russians for going into a war with little gain for them.
What happens then, who knows? I don't know what his next steps would be to expand the empire, if he expands it, at all. Maybe he would calm a bit and start to defend and develop what he had, building an alternate Kiel Canal to avoid having to pay the Danes the "Sound Dues" aka the toll fee of the Danish straits, for example.


Keeping Prussia and wanting to annex Courland after it would be "wanting the cake and eating it", and probably would worry the Polish nobility too much they would be motivated to ask help from other neighbors to counterbalance the Russian expansionism in the region.
Besides once Peter ascends to the throne, he probably would give back the duchy to the Hohenzollerns, anyway. So probably doing the Prussia-Courland change probably would be the best thing Elizabeth could do before dying.

If Prussia is dead and buried, who are the Poles going to appeal to? Can't see Austria wanting to get into a major Russian war.

 

[ahmedali]

I really think getting Elizabeth Romanov to live another year is difficult because she is very ill

You can get Denmark to join the Prussian side and thus force Peter III to remain loyal to France

(So Sweden is offering it not only Pomerania but Norway in exchange for supporting Peter Peschlwig-Holstein's claims)

France will not win the Austrian Netherlands The treaties with Austria stipulated that France would take a few provinces from it

The rest arises as a kingdom under the rule of the Duke of Parma, Don Felipe

(husband of Louis XV's daughter) in exchange for Parma grants to Austria

East Prussia would not be given to Poland by the end of the war the Russians seemed to want to keep it for them

(Correct me if I'm wrong)

The partition of Poland may continue, but this time it may be the Duchy of Lithuania and Ukraine for the Russians, and the Kingdom of Poland for the Austrians.