What if D-Day delayed?

[ScrewySqrl]

As it happens, There was considerable debate on whether or not to go with June 6, as the weather was potentially bad and it was almost a coin flip choice.

So, If Eisenhower had decided instead to postpone to July: In OTL, the weather on the potential date in July was even worse, with storms lashing the channel and French coasts.

Assuming Bagration goes ahead on June 22, destroying Army Group Center as in OTL, do the Western Allies look like they waited until Russia already won the war before landing, even if Anvil goes ahead in August?

If Western Allied troops aren't even in France until August at the earliest (and maybe only southern France), how far do the Soviets get by the end of the war? Do we have the Soviets on the Weser, or maybe even the Rhine, rather than the Elbe?

Stalin will certainly feel betrayed by the US and UK, letting Russia bleed while they 'twiddled their thumbs' (OTL North Africa/Italy was never 'good enough', nor did the Soviets really respect the aAllied Bombing campaign until Dresden was flattened).

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

As it happens, There was considerable debate on whether or not to go with June 6, as the weather was potentially bad and it was almost a coin flip choice.

So, If Eisenhower had decided instead to postpone to July: In OTL, the weather on the potential date in July was even worse, with storms lashing the channel and French coasts.

Perhap[s you mean late June? July was relatively mild. Can you specify the storms of July so we understand the situation better?

Assuming Bagration goes ahead on June 22, destroying Army Group Center as in OTL, do the Western Allies look like they waited until Russia already won the war before landing, even if Anvil goes ahead in August?

This assumes Bagration goes ahead as OTL & the Red Army does not wait until the invasion actually is executed.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

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2 weeks after D-Day happened historically, which would be the next low tide at dawn

 

[Garrison]

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2 weeks after D-Day happened historically, which would be the next low tide at dawn

But that is still June, not July.

 

[ScrewySqrl]

But that is still June, not July.

still puts off any invasion until after Bagration destroys Army Group Center, before the Allies can get the 'Second Front' going. The end was inevitable after Bagration, and thus the situation remains the same...Stalin is going to feel he won the war more or less on his own at Yalta and Potsdam, or whatever similar conferences happen

 

[Fernan3451]

Is it possible to have more of Germany than OTL under Soviet control here with a later D-Day? That can possibly depend on how the Eastern Front goes here and whether D-Day 2.0 succeeds or not.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

This assumes Bagration goes ahead as OTL & the Red Army does not wait until the invasion actually is executed.

It would, though it would also be a bit less ambitious than OTL. The actual operational plan for Bagration actually seems to have assumed D-Day either failed, didn’t go ahead, or didn’t result in the commitment of German strategic reserves for duplicitous capitalist reasons. The plan in that case expected that they’d run into the the redeployed German Forces around Minsk in early-July, this would result in a pitched meeting engagement in western Belarus that would force the Soviets to go over to the defensive and prepare a follow-up operation to advance the rest of the way to the Vistula around about August or September, once the Soviet offensives against L’viv and Romania has drawn the Germans attention back down south.

OTL, it was only around June 26th, three days after the operation began, that the STAVKA realized the German reserves weren’t coming and initiated the hot-planning and preparation to modify the operation and extend the advance all the way to the Vistula.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Its always more complicated than the glossy history magazines present.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

... (OTL North Africa/Italy was never 'good enough', nor did the Soviets really respect the aAllied Bombing campaign until Dresden was flattened)...

Actually:

Premier Stalin to Premier Churchill 29 Mar 43
I congratulate the British Air Force on the new big and successful bombing of Berlin.
I hope that the British armoured units will be able to use to the full the improvement in the Tunis situation and not give any respite to the enemy.
Yesterday, together with my colleagues, I have seen the film Desert Victory, which you have sent me. It makes a very strong impression. The film depicts magnificently how Britain is fighting, and stigmatises those scoundrels (there are such people also in our country) who are asserting that Britain is not fighting at all, but is merely an onlooker. Impatiently I will wait a similar film on your victory in Tunis.
The film Desert Victory will be widely shown in all our armies at the front and among the widest masses of our population.

- The Second World War Volume IV, Chapter: 'Russia and the Western Allies' (by Winston Churchill) (Edit: 1951 hardback edition)

Stalin could use the carrot of praise or the stick of mockery and jibes, depending on which he thought could get him what he wanted at any given moment.