What if California was an independent country?

[Wr1t3r]

PoD: California secedes before the civil war, but doesn't join the confederacy (possibly ASB, if so, mods, please change the forum)
I imagine that (Considering California's economy at the time was largely driven by agriculture, mining, and trade) as an independent country, it would have had to establish trade agreements with neighboring states and countries to sustain its economy. I'm also curious as to how the American civil war would play out

 

[The Tai-Pan]

PoD: California secedes before the civil war, but doesn't join the confederacy (possibly ASB, if so, mods, please change the forum)
I imagine that (Considering California's economy at the time was largely driven by agriculture, mining, and trade) as an independent country, it would have had to establish trade agreements with neighboring states and countries to sustain its economy. I'm also curious as to how the American civil war would play out

What POD do you have in mind? One after the American conquest in the Mexican-American War or one before that?

 

[Wr1t3r]

What POD do you have in mind? One after the American conquest in the Mexican-American War or one before that?

let's split it into 2. 1 where it secedes from Mexico, one where it seceeds from America

 

[The Tai-Pan]

let's split it into 2. 1 where it secedes from Mexico, one where it seceeds from America

Seceding from Mexico is hard to imagine but not impossible. In 1836 Juan Bautista Alvarado led a small Californio revolt against Mexico, made a constitution and their own flag. This is was mostly a reaction against a crappy Mexican governor but the revolt never really went anywhere and was easily put down. That said, Alta California would be a pretty rural place. The population was very low and the economy based around selling hides to traders. It'll have trouble keeping American settlers out, even before the Gold Rush. After? I doubt it'll maintain itself.

 

[UCB79]

Possibly, later in the 19th Century, the USA attempts to re-conquer California, leading of course to war.

 

[Wr1t3r]

Seceding from Mexico is hard to imagine but not impossible. In 1836 Juan Bautista Alvarado led a small Californio revolt against Mexico, made a constitution and their own flag. This is was mostly a reaction against a crappy Mexican governor but the revolt never really went anywhere and was easily put down. That said, Alta California would be a pretty rural place. The population was very low and the economy based around selling hides to traders. It'll have trouble keeping American settlers out, even before the Gold Rush. After? I doubt it'll maintain itself.

Why not gain independence like Texas did? Only this time it never joins the US afterwards (due to distance)

 

[GunterW]

Seceding from Mexico is hard to imagine but not impossible. In 1836 Juan Bautista Alvarado led a small Californio revolt against Mexico, made a constitution and their own flag. This is was mostly a reaction against a crappy Mexican governor but the revolt never really went anywhere and was easily put down. That said, Alta California would be a pretty rural place. The population was very low and the economy based around selling hides to traders. It'll have trouble keeping American settlers out, even before the Gold Rush. After? I doubt it'll maintain itself.

Without a foreign power backing it up, independent California would suffer the same fate as the various filibusters, a nice word for pirates, tried to do in Baja and Sonora in the 1850s. It gets crushed by Mexican forces with the help of local loyalists.

As you mentioned, California in the early 1800s was a backwater, scarcely populated, and did not extending much inland. At that time, it has little value except as naval base for the Royal Navy. San Francisco and San Diego are excellent natural harbors.

 

[GunterW]

Why not gain independence like Texas did? Only this time it never joins the US afterwards (due to distance)

Texas remained independent for a few years only because the US allowed it. Eventually, it joined the Union, as it was in their best interests.

The difference with California is basically the distance, it’s very hard to get there, the land route is across deserts, mountains and hostile natives. By sea it’s a very long trip and you can only bring so much goods and people.

The US would prioritize what’s closer to home. A revolt after gold is found changes everything, there is now an incentive for the US, the UK and even France to get involved. Assuming they have foreign backing, they might be able to keep most of Alta California.

 

[anotherlurker]

Before the large scale military investments in the 30s and the Cold War California was an underpopulated strip of land at the wrong end of the continent. An independent one would suffer the same fate, there's no inherent reason why it should prosper.

 

[Wr1t3r]

Without a foreign power backing it up, independent California would suffer the same fate as the various filibusters, a nice word for pirates, tried to do in Baja and Sonora in the 1850s. It gets crushed by Mexican forces with the help of local loyalists.

Maybe the Russians back it up then.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

If California remains independent from America, then I can see California becoming a heavily American influenced polity which serves as stage grounds for America to use its naval and military power on the Pacific Ocean. This is because in 1846, the year the California Republic was declared, California had barely any settlement in the region. Plus, Hawaii can serve as California’s extension of its naval, military, political, and economic power, if Hawaii even gets annexed. (California still could influence Hawaii through soft power though).

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Before the large scale military investments in the 30s and the Cold War California was an underpopulated strip of land at the wrong end of the continent. An independent one would suffer the same fate, there's no inherent reason why it should prosper.

This pushing it too far. California exploded during the Gold Rush. By 1870 California was the 24th most populated state. Still low compared to size, but not that backward.

 

[anotherlurker]

This pushing it too far. California exploded during the Gold Rush. By 1870 California was the 24th most populated state. Still low compared to size, but not that backward.

It's on par with a bunch of those inland states that no European can name.