wank the puppet: Could Petains L'etat Francais outlast WW2?

oberdada

I don't think this has ever been discussed here, it is very impropable, but I don't think it is 100% ASB.
The rules:
The Aim would be to have France as a souvereign country without ocupation troups, that gives the Chef de l'État Français Pétain a tremandous funeral when he dies in 1951.
France shouldn't lose much more than it's colonies (including Algeria) Alcsace-Loraine and the areas that were ceesed to Italy in 1940.
And it shouldn't be a Nazi-wank scenario...

some thoughts...
POD would be after July 10th 1940 and likely before the beginnig of Operation Barbarossa, since the French communists joining la Resistance really got it going.

D-Day isn't likely going to happen.

The important point is to somehow get France neutral, make the Wehrmacht leave the country and have the British accept this...
But how?
 
Ariosto

Ariosto

Italy would need to be defeated in North Africa in 1941 for this to occur, since the occupation of Vichy itself was caused by the Allied invasion of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. However, this presents some rather interesting scenarios given the now radically different strategic picture. An invasion of France might be pushed forward by the United States since the British have secured the African Front. The English would probably still favor invasions into either Italy or Greece; however, since equipment may not be ready for such operations until 1943, the Italians and Germans would have more time to prepare for such attacks, while both also have the benefit of having not lost the number of forces they would have historically.

If history progresses as it did historically, without the occupation of Vichy North Africa, and with the success of Operation Overlord, I am not exactly sure how the Allies would react. Most of the Allies, with the exceptions of the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union, still had full diplomatic relations with Vichy, and recognized them as the legitimate government of France. It was not until about a month after the liberation of Paris that De Gaulle's government was recognized, and that was slightly less than two years after Vichy for the most part ceased to exist.
 

RPW@Cy

This is probably almost impossible to pull off, but what if we were to arrange a gradual chilling in Vichy's relations with Germany (especially after the occupation of the free zone in 1942), with vichy becoming steadily more awkward about such things as cooperating on roundups, withdrawing it's forces from anti-Maquis operations, instructing French forces and officials in the colonies to cooperate with the allies on the same basis that those in Metropolitan France are cooperating with the Germans, tolerating SOE and other allied espionage operations, and so on? Not pushing things so far as to prompt a German coup, but enough to establish some veneer of genuine neutrality.

Then, when the invasions occur (probably after Dragoon would be best) Vichy repudiates the armistice agreement and once again declares war on Germany and instructs all remaining loyal forces to cooperate fully with the allies and the Maquis (inviting de Gaulle to join the government as Minister of Defence would be a particularly nice touch at this point).

Vichy's senior figures would have to move sharpish to avoid German reprisals of course, but assuming they do then we could head into the post-war world with a legend being built up of Petain as the father of the nation who successfully steered France through her darkest hour, avoiding the fate that befell the likes of Poland, and led to her reemergence as one of the victorious allies and one of the world's great powers...
 

HJ Tulp

Maybe the POD is that the Vichy Fleet moves to Martinique instead of the bottom of the Ocean at Mers-Al-Kebir?
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

To do this, I think you may need a 'Franco's Spain' analogue.

A Vichy France that is pro-German 'neutral', and survives.

I can't see the régime of Laval and company being willing to switch to the Allied side, so the previously mentioned idea of Vichy becoming chillier and chillier to the Nazis may be what 'saves' them, given that I don't think that they would change sides.

THus the invasion of Europe isn't happening through France. (bleah)

OTOH, if the US KNOWS the invasion isn't happening through France, then all the resources stockpiling up for Overlord can be moved to the Med, and Italy can be taken faster.

If the Allies invade through Yugoslavia, then the post war map is going to be very strange - north (Soviet) Germany vs south (WAlly) Germany, with Yugoslavia and likely Bulgaria in the Allied camp.


It would be very different
 

lothaw

That could work, though I would see some sort of amphibious landing in Belgium or the Netherlands as likely in this scenario.

Plus Petain would probably declare war once Germany was on the ropes just to get a place at the peace table, to get A-L back and possibly some of their colonies.

Whether that happens or not, is up for debate. though seems to me the Iron Curtain would be pushed back further east. Oh Russia would probably still get OTL east Germany and Poland, maybe Hungry and Romania(depending on how fast the allies move), but not much more.

Still it would set up an interesting cold war scenario. Especially with France's questionable status. Also, might help for that de Gaulle guy to catch a bullet somewhere in the 1939-40 fighting.
 
Shimbo

Shimbo

I think the PoD is no De Gaulle/Free French. Without them, Vichy may be treated like Italy, e.g. change sides, perhaps after/during a larger Operation Dragoon. Petain himself may not remain as head of the government but there would be continuity between the Vichy regime and the post-war French government.

After the war, Petain is rehabilitated, becomes revered as "the man who kept France together in her darkest hour" and gets a state funeral.
 

ranoncles

How about going the other way?

The cowardly and dastardly attack on the French navy (and similar events at French ships in British ports) piss off the French and other neutrals including the US. The French retaliate by bombing Gibraltar and closing off the Med for British shipping with the support of the Germans who rescind their strict disarmament. A few attempts at capturing French colonies by the British and their tame French lapdogs are humiliatingly defeated by Vichy France. This establishes that Vichy France is willing and able to defend itself.

A little less cooperation with the distasteful Nazi policies but a little more British butt kicking allows them to keep the Nazi's a little at bay as Hitler focuses on fighting the Russians and holding the West secure.

By the time the Wallies are ready to engage Germany in a land war, they face the question of landing in the low countries or in Norway or in France (the Med being out of the question as the French air force would attack an invasion force trying to get through the needle at Gibraltar. Attacking a neutral country (and former ally of America in WWI) wouldn't play well in the USA so the Wallies decide on a landing in the low countries. Since its very poor terrain, the landings probably resemble D-Day and a similar end result but now Vichy France survives.

All this ATL needs is a decent French military....:D
 
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