The Sandman
Banned
What if the Italians, aided by the Central Powers offering them tidbits like Tunisia, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica, honored their treaty obligations and joined the Central Powers? How might this have changed the war?
Triple Alliance Holds
- Thread starter The Sandman
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Italy Joins the Central Powers
The WWI Italian army was rather poor. It is my understanding that they did not win a single major battle against Austria-Hungary. So I would not expect too much from them. My guess is that they advance a couple of miles into the French alps and go no further. The French - Italian front line remains more or less static for the next 4 years.
However the situation for Austria-Hungary improves a bit. Without the diversion of troops to the Italian front, the Russian 1916 Brusilov offensive will not be as successful. The Russian penetration is smaller. The German - Austrian counter offensive is larger. The end result is that Russia is knocked out of the war a few months earlier. If this change causes Romania not to join the allies then Russia's defeat will come sooner still.
Unlike her army, Italy's navy is quite capable. A joint Italy - Austria fleet will make life rough for the allied navies in the Med. Britain will be required to reinforce her Med fleet, or she will lose the ability to transport goods via the Med and Suez canal. Rather then attacking Galipoli, Britain may invade Sicily in an effort to contain the Italian and Austro-Hungarian fleets.
The WWI Italian army was rather poor. It is my understanding that they did not win a single major battle against Austria-Hungary. So I would not expect too much from them. My guess is that they advance a couple of miles into the French alps and go no further. The French - Italian front line remains more or less static for the next 4 years.
However the situation for Austria-Hungary improves a bit. Without the diversion of troops to the Italian front, the Russian 1916 Brusilov offensive will not be as successful. The Russian penetration is smaller. The German - Austrian counter offensive is larger. The end result is that Russia is knocked out of the war a few months earlier. If this change causes Romania not to join the allies then Russia's defeat will come sooner still.
Unlike her army, Italy's navy is quite capable. A joint Italy - Austria fleet will make life rough for the allied navies in the Med. Britain will be required to reinforce her Med fleet, or she will lose the ability to transport goods via the Med and Suez canal. Rather then attacking Galipoli, Britain may invade Sicily in an effort to contain the Italian and Austro-Hungarian fleets.
Reparations would be levelled on Italy
- Italy will lose all her overseas colonies.
- May squeeze a few lira out of Italy, but I doubt it will be much.
- Italian monarchy flees into exile (similiar to Kaiser Wilhelm II leaving Germany for Holland).
- Restrictions on Italian military similiar to those imposed on Germany.
- Perhaps Italy loses a bit of border territory to Serbia (er, Yugoslavia) and France.
- Italy will lose all her overseas colonies.
- May squeeze a few lira out of Italy, but I doubt it will be much.
- Italian monarchy flees into exile (similiar to Kaiser Wilhelm II leaving Germany for Holland).
- Restrictions on Italian military similiar to those imposed on Germany.
- Perhaps Italy loses a bit of border territory to Serbia (er, Yugoslavia) and France.
Independent Sardinia! Yes!
It had minerals, coal, some industry (well, not much), agriculture, pleasant weather, etc. It would have been an interesting little country.
If Sardinia was an independent country you could do worse than live there. Too dry. Maybe reforestation as the peasants make too much money off tourism and abandon the goat pastures?
It had minerals, coal, some industry (well, not much), agriculture, pleasant weather, etc. It would have been an interesting little country.
If Sardinia was an independent country you could do worse than live there. Too dry. Maybe reforestation as the peasants make too much money off tourism and abandon the goat pastures?
Independent Sardinia! Yes!
Probably not. But Sardinia may end up as part of France.
Of course this works both ways. If Italy and the Central Powers win Corsica may become part of Italy.
Probably not. But Sardinia may end up as part of France.
Of course this works both ways. If Italy and the Central Powers win Corsica may become part of Italy.
The Sandman
Banned
To me, one of the more interesting questions is the result of the French having to deploy extra troops to deal with the Italians. I agree that the Italians probably wouldn't do any better against France and Britain than they did against Germany and Austria, but what does it mean that the French have fewer divisions to use for the crucial task of holding back the Germans?
Also, depending on when Italy decides to join the Central Powers, it may have some effect on the Ottoman decision to enter the war, or their performance in it. IIRC, didn't the Italians and the Ottomans have some longstanding issues in 1914?
Also, depending on when Italy decides to join the Central Powers, it may have some effect on the Ottoman decision to enter the war, or their performance in it. IIRC, didn't the Italians and the Ottomans have some longstanding issues in 1914?
As far as I understand Italy was never a 'great power' more of a annoyance for both sides. Italy had potential to great a third front and extend Allied control into Austria-Hungary for Britain. Besides Italy REALLY wanted those Italian speaking Alps in Austria-Hungary.
I don't see why Italy would fight the Allies - it has too much to lose. It's economy wasn't so hot, it sat in the middle of the British 'lake' aka mediterranean and would be easily blockaded. Italian troops may make slight gains in France with enough surprise but Italy was never a war economy like Germany's. It'd lose it's colonies within weeks or the latest 2 months. It's fleet would either try to hide in the Adriatic or be destroyed.
In the Great Offensive in 1918, with the arrival of US troops, more Allies can be taken to the French Providence region to drive the Italians and Austrians east. As soon as they reach Milan or Genoa the game's up and Italy surrenders.
I don't see why Italy would fight the Allies - it has too much to lose. It's economy wasn't so hot, it sat in the middle of the British 'lake' aka mediterranean and would be easily blockaded. Italian troops may make slight gains in France with enough surprise but Italy was never a war economy like Germany's. It'd lose it's colonies within weeks or the latest 2 months. It's fleet would either try to hide in the Adriatic or be destroyed.
In the Great Offensive in 1918, with the arrival of US troops, more Allies can be taken to the French Providence region to drive the Italians and Austrians east. As soon as they reach Milan or Genoa the game's up and Italy surrenders.
The Sandman
Banned
As I said, though, the Italians do have something to gain in the event of a Central Powers victory as well, namely the bits they turned over to France in the 1870s along with Tunisia. I also, as my previous post probably made clear, am of the opinion that the Italian troops would probably have pulled enough Allied troops south to allow greater German gains in the North.
Also, with Italy now on the Central Powers side, I wonder what reactions would have been like in the US. Would the sizeable Italian-American minority still have had enough of a connection to Italy in 1914 to make it politically difficult for the US to go after Italy?
Also, with Italy now on the Central Powers side, I wonder what reactions would have been like in the US. Would the sizeable Italian-American minority still have had enough of a connection to Italy in 1914 to make it politically difficult for the US to go after Italy?
Valamyr
Banned
Dave Bender said:
Add to this the Ottoman fleet and a couple of good German cruisers in the Med and it would become a major theater of operations. Youd probably need Austria to agree to sell a bit of irredente lands to Italy. Not much, mind you, but a few morally significant acres. Along the the promise of lots of entente spoils. Tunisia was highly coveted by Italy.
Sure Italy wasnt a first class power, but WW1 was such a close affair that it might have turned the tables. Just a few more french troops busy in the south... just a few less german troops busy in the east... romania goes Central... Russia collapses a wee bit earlier... Germany suffers a bit less from the blockade... Too many british ships busy in the mediteranean, allowing more German naval activity in the North sea... a few german naval victories ensuing... and finally, a grand land offensive on the Somme in late 1917...
I think you could end up with a central power victory, with Germany utterly crushing the east, and making only moderate gains in the west. (A few colonies, Luxemburg, an indemnity, temporary occupation of some french iron fields) But possibly more in the south. (Turmoil over Imperial concessions to Italy escalating into the collapse of the Austrian Empire with Germany picking up Austria, south Tyrol, Bohemia, Slovenia and Slovaquia, perhaps?)
Oh, I like this ATL.
Italy on the German side. Of course, the Turks had just been hosed by the Italians AND the Balkans, so they are neutral? In OTL it was no brainer which way they were going to go. Vengeance was handed to them.
In this ATL neutrality enables them to keep the war going forever while they make money selling oil and ore to both sides, and pick up the pieces afterwards. The money lets them rebuild their arms and the neutrality lets them send observers to both sides to see what works.
Then they pick up Iran and Afghanistan while everyone else is too busy to interfere.
Russia can supply wheat to the Allies in return for ammunition and locomotives. Britain's credit holds up better and they don't have to go to America for help in 1917. The Allies just keep bleeding themselves and Germany/Austria/Italy white until 1920.
The problem is that in OTL the Balkan peoples of Austria Hungary wouldn't surrender while Italy was an ally because they were worried about being annexed by the Italians. In this ATL they might be induced not to fight on if they were going to be annexed by the Balkan nations they were conationalists of.
Turkey just buys railroads and factories and petrochemical plants. Another Japan, but in the middle east!
What an interesting postwar environment.
Italy on the German side. Of course, the Turks had just been hosed by the Italians AND the Balkans, so they are neutral? In OTL it was no brainer which way they were going to go. Vengeance was handed to them.
In this ATL neutrality enables them to keep the war going forever while they make money selling oil and ore to both sides, and pick up the pieces afterwards. The money lets them rebuild their arms and the neutrality lets them send observers to both sides to see what works.
Then they pick up Iran and Afghanistan while everyone else is too busy to interfere.
Russia can supply wheat to the Allies in return for ammunition and locomotives. Britain's credit holds up better and they don't have to go to America for help in 1917. The Allies just keep bleeding themselves and Germany/Austria/Italy white until 1920.
The problem is that in OTL the Balkan peoples of Austria Hungary wouldn't surrender while Italy was an ally because they were worried about being annexed by the Italians. In this ATL they might be induced not to fight on if they were going to be annexed by the Balkan nations they were conationalists of.
Turkey just buys railroads and factories and petrochemical plants. Another Japan, but in the middle east!
What an interesting postwar environment.
The Sandman
Banned
Another question would be whether the Central Powers would be any more likely to keep their territorial promises to Italy than the Allies were. I would think yes, as the Central Powers (particularly Germany) does actually have something to gain by further weakening France, but I suppose it could go either way.