Sweden doesn't enter the Thirty Years' War, so what do the Habsburgs and their allies do?

[Comte de Dordogne]

For a variety of reasons, Gustavus II Adolphus decided not to go to war with the Holy Roman Empire in 1630: Richelieu might fail to establish peace between Moscow and Stockholm, or Gustavus II Adolphus might die prematurely.
With Denmark defeated and the French having no other adversary to finance, the Imperials find themselves having won the war within the Empire.

In this situation, how was the Edict of Restitution applied in the north of the Empire? Ferdinand II seemed more than motivated to bring back Church property secularized during the 16th century. However, he risked alienating the Protestant princes of the north. But what could the latter do without Sweden or other foreign support? How is the Habsburg/Imperial/Catholic presence evolving in the north of the Empire?

What becomes of Wallenstein in this situation? At this time, he was administering Mecklenburg and was still more than loyal to the Emperor. Although not very popular at court, his opponents did nothing to disgrace him, since he was still the undefeated soldier who had brought victory to the northern part of the Empire. But his disproportionate armies could still terrify the Emperor and the other minor princes, and his lack of political skill could yet cost him his position.

How is the conflict between Spain and the United Provinces developing? With most Protestant princes crushed, the Emperor could help his cousins in the Netherlands. Although victory could be costly, with most of their enemies already out of the picture the Habsburgs might be greedy and not seek to negotiate but rather to obliterate. Is a total Spanish victory after such a late period still possible, or is it a mirage? What impact would an early demise of the United Provinces and its trading empire have on Europe and the world?

What is the France of Louis XIII and Richelieu doing in this situation? Their support for Denmark was unsuccessful, and Sweden was not interested in intervening in the Holy Empire. The Habsburgs seem undefeated, and Richelieu has long hesitated to intervene directly. But with a possible defeat of the United Provinces and Spain also on the verge of triumph, the danger of being encircled and next in line is serious.

What about the rest of Europe? Poland-Lithuania and Russia with Sweden, the Ottomans in Hungary and England?

With so many lives spared in Europe in a thirty-year war that ended early, what impact will this have on European demographics?

I've only skimmed the surface of the vast questions all this raises, but I'm ready to discuss them with you in greater detail.

@alexmilman @Nuraghe @Emperor Constantine

 

[alexmilman]

For a variety of reasons, Gustavus II Adolphus decided not to go to war with the Holy Roman Empire in 1630: Richelieu might fail to establish peace between Moscow and Stockholm, or Gustavus II Adolphus might die prematurely.
With Denmark defeated and the French having no other adversary to finance, the Imperials find themselves having won the war within the Empire.

In this situation, how was the Edict of Restitution applied in the north of the Empire? Ferdinand II seemed more than motivated to bring back Church property secularized during the 16th century. However, he risked alienating the Protestant princes of the north. But what could the latter do without Sweden or other foreign support? How is the Habsburg/Imperial/Catholic presence evolving in the north of the Empire?

What becomes of Wallenstein in this situation? At this time, he was administering Mecklenburg and was still more than loyal to the Emperor. Although not very popular at court, his opponents did nothing to disgrace him, since he was still the undefeated soldier who had brought victory to the northern part of the Empire. But his disproportionate armies could still terrify the Emperor and the other minor princes, and his lack of political skill could yet cost him his position.

Well, this did happen in OTL before Sweden entered the war because the Princes made his removal a condition of their support in election. So probably the same happens ITTL: W becomes a very rich private person. However, there is an additional factor: Ferdinand owns him a lot of money and, seemingly, no resources or intention to return them. So all types of things may (or may not) happen.

How is the conflict between Spain and the United Provinces developing? With most Protestant princes crushed, the Emperor could help his cousins in the Netherlands.

This would be a plausible deployment for W: he could be engaged “forever” without causing too much of an uproar from the imperial princes.

Although victory could be costly, with most of their enemies already out of the picture the Habsburgs might be greedy and not seek to negotiate but rather to obliterate. Is a total Spanish victory after such a late period still possible, or is it a mirage? What impact would an early demise of the United Provinces and its trading empire have on Europe and the world?

But the Dutch had money and could keep hiring the mercenaries while financial situation of both Hapsburg houses was not too good.

What is the France of Louis XIII and Richelieu doing in this situation?

IIRC, they still had a lot of the domestic problems and did not have an army. In your framework R would probably have to start creating French national army many years ahead of OTL schedule.

Their support for Denmark was unsuccessful, and Sweden was not interested in intervening in the Holy Empire. The Habsburgs seem undefeated, and Richelieu has long hesitated to intervene directly.

Because his initial idea was that it will be cheaper to pay subsidies than create French own army. Only when the this idea proved to be wrong (the recipients were taking money and pursued their own interests) and after spending huge amounts of money he started investments into the national force.

But with a possible defeat of the United Provinces and Spain also on the verge of triumph, the danger of being encircled and next in line is serious.

What about the rest of Europe? Poland-Lithuania and Russia with Sweden, the Ottomans in Hungary and England?

PLC and Tsardom are fighting the Smolensk War which Tsardom lost militarily but won politically by buying out Wladislav's claim to the Russian throne. Neither side is in a good condition to start a new major war in a near future.

With so many lives spared in Europe in a thirty-year war that ended early, what impact will this have on European demographics?

I've only skimmed the surface of the vast questions all this raises, but I'm ready to discuss them with you in greater detail.

@alexmilman @Nuraghe @Emperor Constantine

 

[The Link]

Gustavus Adolphus almost died during the polish-swedish war 1626-1629, due to a nearly fatal gunshot wound he had suffered during the battle of Tczew. That's the most plausible way for him to die before the entrance into the Thirty Years' War. The death of the king, combined with the naval defeat the Swedes suffered in OLT just three months later, might cause the outbreak of panic in Sweden, and so Sweden might ask for peace and give PLC back Livonia (taken by Sweden in 1621 when the PLC had a war with the Ottoman Empire).

The memories about the defeat, combined with the lack of experience the Swedes gained in OTL during the Thirty Years' War, might in the long run lead to the Swedish Deluge not happening at all. This would make the things less harsh for the PLC. Plus, no Swedish Deluge means no independence for the Duchy of Prussia, so Brandenburg may not rise to power at all - even if Brandenburg still somehow manages to get Hinder Pomerania without the swedish participation in the Thirty Years' War.

 

[raharris1973]

When Wallenstein was dismissed in return for the Princes support for Ferdinand's election, did his lose his role in administering/controlling Mecklenberg? Who took over between him and Gustavus invasion?

What happens to Mecklenberg, and the Baltic coast of the HRE, without the Swedish invasion? If the Edict of Restitution is being enforced, returning Ecclesiastical properties, is this dispossessing many Protestant lords and tenants, causing may Lutheran and Calvinist migrations from northern German lands, to England, Scotland, Scandinavia, Poland - if it remains tolerant, the Dutch Republic if it survives, and the English colonies growing in North America?

 

[alexmilman]

When Wallenstein was dismissed in return for the Princes support for Ferdinand's election, did his lose his role in administering/controlling Mecklenberg? Who took over between him and Gustavus invasion?

In 1630 GA captured the duchies and returned them to the dukes. Prior to this there was, seemingly, Wallenstein as the duke but it does not look like he lived there.

What happens to Mecklenberg, and the Baltic coast of the HRE, without the Swedish invasion? If the Edict of Restitution is being enforced, returning Ecclesiastical properties, is this dispossessing many Protestant lords and tenants, causing may Lutheran and Calvinist migrations from northern German lands, to England, Scotland, Scandinavia, Poland - if it remains tolerant, the Dutch Republic if it survives, and the English colonies growing in North America?

 

[Math]

The Habsburgs and the Catholic League will depend on the commanders, whitout the Sweden, The Catholics will be on top, if France intercedes everything will depend on the commanders, Franz Von Mercy showed that the armies of the League with a skilled commander could match the French with their best commanders (conde and Turenne), If Franz von Mercy is promoted in the 30s instead of the 40s, the league should probably defeat the German Protestants and if the French intervene they could equalize them.

 

[Belisarius II]

If the Dutch Republic was seriously threatened England would be forced to intervene. That would force Charles I to make concessions to the Puritan dominated Parliament, so they'd pay for the war. This might have the effect of taking off some of the pressure that built up among the Puritans that finally exploded in the 1640's. You might have a strange alliance between English Puritans & French Catholics vs. the HRE. Charles I was building a powerful navy with "Ship Money" and with an early New Model Army would have a powerful force to put in the scales of the European Balance of Power.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Sweden and Poland almost certainly go around for one more war in 1635 when the truce runs out. Likely Sweden cements control of the Baltic coast. Brandenburg may only survive as the main protestant hold out via an alliance with the Swedes.

Most of the rest of Germany is more or less Catholic (in governance at least)

I'm not convinced the Dutch are any more seriously threatened than when facing the Spanish - the HRE is not exactly a strong unified body and the Low Countries are a long way from Vienna. And as others have noted, England may be forced to bolster the Dutch even more than they did IOTL.

French will modernise and rebuild - I suspect there will be at least one more religious inspired war in the second half of the 17th century but in this case England may escape it.

 

[raharris1973]

Most of the rest of Germany is more or less Catholic (in governance at least)

Any special migratory consequences of this?

Like I alluded to here:

What happens to Mecklenberg, and the Baltic coast of the HRE, without the Swedish invasion? If the Edict of Restitution is being enforced, returning Ecclesiastical properties, is this dispossessing many Protestant lords and tenants, causing may Lutheran and Calvinist migrations from northern German lands, to England, Scotland, Scandinavia, Poland - if it remains tolerant, the Dutch Republic if it survives, and the English colonies growing in North America?

Imagine the basic demographic consequences, if fighting in Germany simply stops, years earlier, would be more Germans alive, of all sects.

 

[Math]

Any special migratory consequences of this

Perhaps Southern German Protestants will begin to immigrate to the North and/or Scandinavian countries (this also included Northern Protestants).

 

[Derek Pullem]

Any special migratory consequences of this?

Like I alluded to here:



Imagine the basic demographic consequences, if fighting in Germany simply stops, years earlier, would be more Germans alive, of all sects.

Well if the consequence of a (more) Catholic Germany is a (more) Protestant England then there will be less of a drive for the Puritans to leave England. Instead you may see many more Germans emigrating to America, both because there are more of them left alive and there is less religious tolerance within the Empire.

I suspect most will enter through New Amsterdam which may never fall to the Engl;ish as the English and the Dutch will remain allied against the Empire.

If Sweden remains strong (in fact stronger if they win another war against Poland) I would expect them to gather the North German coast and Brandenburg into a Protetsant League which is too strong for the Empire to think that a campaign to enforce religous conformity is worth it. Not saying it is not impossible that they would try but am saying they would likely fail if they did try.

So North America likely has three major colonies in the 18th century - English, French and Germano-Dutch

 

[Math]

Not saying it is not impossible that they would try but am saying they would likely fail if they did try.

It is butterflies like this that are difficult to predict, the Austrian Habsburgs who manage to win the Thirty Years' War and force counter-reformation across at least in the entire southern Germany (Franconia, Württemberg, Swabia), There would have been a completely different political, geopolitical and even psychological situation compared to the second half of the 17th century Habsburgs in OTL, The same thing applies to Protestants.

 

[Math]

Well if the consequence of a (more) Catholic Germany is a (more) Protestant England then there will be less of a drive for the Puritans to leave England

Charles I's situation will be interesting, OTL he tried to reform the Anglican and Scottish church, in a more traditional format, which made British Protestants call him Catholic sympathizer, Now if this is right, a victory for the Catholics in Germany could make him more firm and convinced in he reform of the Anglican church to a high church/traditionalist structure.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Charles I's situation will be interesting, OTL he tried to reform the Anglican and Scottish church, in a more traditional format, which made British Protestants call him Catholic sympathizer, Now if this is right, a victory for the Catholics in Germany could make him more firm and convinced in he reform of the Anglican church to a high church/traditionalist structure.

Well the Protestant parliament is going to be terrified of the prospect of a Catholic victory in Germany so while I agree that Charles will feel emboldened the counter reaction from Parliament is likely to discourage him. Politically he will likely see an accommodation with France against Spain and the Empire. He's going to be unpopular with everyone but the likely inevitable French conflict with the Empire and Spain in Europe will go a long way to mitigate this.

A rebellion in Ireland is unavoidable IMHO but the Scots war may be butterflied

 

[Math]

Well the Protestant parliament is going to be terrified of the prospect of a Catholic victory in Germany so while I agree that Charles will feel emboldened the counter reaction from Parliament is likely to discourage him. Politically he will likely see an accommodation with France against Spain and the Empire. He's going to be unpopular with everyone but the likely inevitable French conflict with the Empire and Spain in Europe will go a long way to mitigate this.

A rebellion in Ireland is unavoidable IMHO but the Scots war may be butterflied

Talking about France, it will be interesting how the Huguenots will be treated, with the protestant failure to stop the habsburgs, Richelieu could be much more nasty to them.

 

[Jürgen]

I think an important factor is how the Danish phase ends, in OTL the Danes used a potential alliance with the Swedes as a threat to gain a better deal. But at the same time Denmark are in 1629 in a pretty similar position to the Kalmar War, where Denmark was doing badly on land, but used naval supremacy to force a peace through. Wallenstein had a plan with building an imperial navy and defeat the Danes naval ly, but honestly he was in a pretty position to do so. So I suspect that the peace treaty with the Danes is pushed further into the future, especially if the French, British or Dutch decides to throw money after the Danes. In the end I could see a quite similar peace treaty to OTL just by 1630-31.

With the Danes out and no Swedes entering the conflict is not over, but it’s more simmering with a short ceasefire, but we will likely see the conflict break out again after the Protestants have had a few years to build up their treasuries again. But without OTL complete mess it’s easier for Ferdinand III to clean up after his father and reach a compromise with the princes and protestants. So we may see OTL Westphalian Peace in 1638-39 instead.

 

[Math]

I think an important factor is how the Danish phase ends, in OTL the Danes used a potential alliance with the Swedes as a threat to gain a better deal. But at the same time Denmark are in 1629 in a pretty similar position to the Kalmar War, where Denmark was doing badly on land, but used naval supremacy to force a peace through. Wallenstein had a plan with building an imperial navy and defeat the Danes naval ly, but honestly he was in a pretty position to do so. So I suspect that the peace treaty with the Danes is pushed further into the future, especially if the French, British or Dutch decides to throw money after the Danes. In the end I could see a quite similar peace treaty to OTL just by 1630-31.

With the Danes out and no Swedes entering the conflict is not over, but it’s more simmering with a short ceasefire, but we will likely see the conflict break out again after the Protestants have had a few years to build up their treasuries again. But without OTL complete mess it’s easier for Ferdinand III to clean up after his father and reach a compromise with the princes and protestants. So we may see OTL Westphalian Peace in 1638-39 instead.

Catholics will not sign a Westphalia without exhausting military possibilities, even OTL the Pope condemned peace even though Catholics OTL in the 40s When clearly They are no longer in a position to impose supremacy over the franco-swedish alliance.

 

[Math]

Wallenstein had a plan with building an imperial navy and defeat the Danes naval ly, but honestly he was in a pretty position to do so.

Without the Swedish threat, The Danish situation is not good (The empire already occupies Jutland), stralsund will fall and Wallenstein will probably starting building his own fleet if the Danes don't surrender.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Without the Swedish threat, The Danish situation is not good (The empire already occupies Jutland), stralsund will fall and Wallenstein will probably starting building his own fleet if the Danes don't surrender.

Swedish threat is still alive - the incentives for the Empire to peace out before intervention are still there. Don't see much changing in 1629 i.e. before OTL Swedish intervention. Denmark is part of the Northern German fringe that survive due to Swedish threat being present. Only if Sweden were to be badly defeated in another war (always possible) would the Empire feel strong enough to renew the war for the North.

It does basically turn the clock back in most of Germany to pre-Auggsberg politics. I suspect keeping a lid on that will suck up most of the Empire's resources for a while.

 

[raharris1973]

If Sweden remains strong (in fact stronger if they win another war against Poland) I would expect them to gather the North German coast and Brandenburg into a Protetsant League

title is:

Sweden doesn't enter the Thirty Years' War,​

are the Swedes in or out?