Oh, lovely. Though I’m not convinced the KMT’s stance is very plausible; in the absence of the huge disruptions, rampant poverty, wars, and finally the Communist push to end drug consumption, China itself still has a sizable percentage of the populace addicted to opium, perhaps as high as a quarter partaking regularly.

The tacit toleration, sure; the ideological justification would be very hard to sustain, though.
The GMD association is technically with organized crime, however flimsy that ideological alibi is.
Then, to paraphrase Pilsudski, I'd not be surprised the GMD is pulling something like "We took the Tangs' train of organized crime to the stop called Revolution, and that's where we got off".
 
Oh, lovely. Though I’m not convinced the KMT’s stance is very plausible; in the absence of the huge disruptions, rampant poverty, wars, and finally the Communist push to end drug consumption, China itself still has a sizable percentage of the populace addicted to opium, perhaps as high as a quarter partaking regularly.

The tacit toleration, sure; the ideological justification would be very hard to sustain, though.
A QUARTER?! Jesus Christ

Yeah, tacitness is more of what we're aiming for here, and the coziness with triads; there isn't really an ideological "opium is awesome" thread
Oh god, there's going to a massive opium epidemic in the US and Confederacy in the 20s, ain't there?

The Tang unloading it on the West Coast and finding a willing market in the shape of traumatised and wounded vets, young people wanting to rebel against the older generations, artiste, etc.

We know Prohibition ain't national (at least in the US. I could see the CS pulling that that switch) but the majority of states are probably dry.

This is going to lead to some FUN rivalries between West Coast Chinese gangs and East Coast Italian/Jewish and Irish mobs.
Mmmmhmmmm
......Drug addicted US president incoming.
lol!

That would be terrible. Terrible.
Sad!
Not a bad idea
The GMD association is technically with organized crime, however flimsy that ideological alibi is.
Then, to paraphrase Pilsudski, I'd not be surprised the GMD is pulling something like "We took the Tangs' train of organized crime to the stop called Revolution, and that's where we got off".
More or less - this is sort of seeding how China gets to its narcostate endgame, just because the Tangs are starting to buddy up with the GMD in 1916 doesn't mean they're any more than just opium bosses out in the middle of nowhere still
 
A QUARTER?! Jesus Christ
China produced, by some estimates, 40,000,000 kg of Opium in 1905, basically all for the domestic market, and more was smuggled in. Set against a population of about 420 million. So about 95 grams for every man, woman, and child in the country, or more like 130 grams per adult. The average recreational user required a 1-3 grams a day, serious addicts more, which backs up the notion that something like a quarter of the country used the stuff regularly.
 
China produced, by some estimates, 40,000,000 kg of Opium in 1905, basically all for the domestic market, and more was smuggled in. Set against a population of about 420 million. So about 95 grams for every man, woman, and child in the country, or more like 130 grams per adult. The average recreational user required a 1-3 grams a day, serious addicts more, which backs up the notion that something like a quarter of the country used the stuff regularly.
Damn. Well, by 1916ish I’d imagine most of that production is still domestic, with only the earliest feelers of smuggling out of China beginning
 
Damn. Well, by 1916ish I’d imagine most of that production is still domestic, with only the earliest feelers of smuggling out of China beginning
The Qing, in the final years IOTL, did crack down on it reasonably effectively; by 1911 the figure fell from 40k tons to 4k. There was a bit of backsliding through the 20's and 30's as both Nationalists and Communists tended to use the rhetoric of suppressing the growth and trade of opium as an excuse to monopolize and tax it, but then the 40's hit and strangled demand by destroying the economies of all of the burgeoning commercial and industrial centers on the coasts and major rivers (and also the cities themselves as often as not), and the Communists finished the job through a fairly brutal campaign of demand destruction and "reeducation" of addicts.

ITTL I expect that the number one consumer of Chinese opium will continue to be China by an at least 10:1 margin over any export market. This ain't Colombia in 1980; the home market is huge, the product well-known and well-liked there, and the logistics of smuggling this low-potency stuff are terrible. Even heroin is difficult compared to modern fentanyl.

There's almost certainly going to come a day when China's people get fed up with doing this shit to themselves for another half a century after TTL's "Half Century of Humiliation."
 
The Qing, in the final years IOTL, did crack down on it reasonably effectively; by 1911 the figure fell from 40k tons to 4k. There was a bit of backsliding through the 20's and 30's as both Nationalists and Communists tended to use the rhetoric of suppressing the growth and trade of opium as an excuse to monopolize and tax it, but then the 40's hit and strangled demand by destroying the economies of all of the burgeoning commercial and industrial centers on the coasts and major rivers (and also the cities themselves as often as not), and the Communists finished the job through a fairly brutal campaign of demand destruction and "reeducation" of addicts.

ITTL I expect that the number one consumer of Chinese opium will continue to be China by an at least 10:1 margin over any export market. This ain't Colombia in 1980; the home market is huge, the product well-known and well-liked there, and the logistics of smuggling this low-potency stuff are terrible. Even heroin is difficult compared to modern fentanyl.

There's almost certainly going to come a day when China's people get fed up with doing this shit to themselves for another half a century after TTL's "Half Century of Humiliation."
Definitely. Such a Qing campaign is unlikely to have occurred here what with the different Boxer War and the subsequent Republic v Qing civil war that ran 1908-13.

My thinking on when Chinese opium/heroin really starts to go international was well into the late 20th century; perhaps a major domestic crackdown on users, but not the pushers, helps drive something like that (though there’s other reasons why later on, too)
 
I don't think it substantially changes the point if I substitute "white" for "citizen" in a few places, TBH. It'd be around 40% of military-aged white males, even if the free black population is over a million in 1910.

You're definitely misreading whatever source that is as German/Austrian military and civilian deaths combined were 8-9% of the population in WWII.



I assume you mean the USSR in WWII, because Russia's military deaths in WWI were actually quite light proportionally? In WWII the USSR and Germany suffered around 30% and 25% of their prime-age male populations killed, respectively. The USSR, in particular, struggled with that for decades.

Serbia was even more screwed over in WWI, but paradoxically the high number of civilian casualties, disproportionately women, may have evened the demographics out some from what I've read. And it was much closer to a pre-industrial society than TTL's USA or CSA, which meant that massive waves of death among children were closer to the norm than the exception, and more easily "made up."

To cross-check my gut above, the OTL US population distribution in 1910 had around 28% of the populace between the ages of 15 and 30, half male, so if that can be generally applied ITTL, there are approximately 2.4 million Confederate prime-aged white/citizen males; a million deaths is 41% of that number.

In light of the USSR's post-WWII experience, it is perhaps survivable in a sense, but it's a clusterfuck.
Also, for the numbers, remember the Confederacy is losing all of the population of Texas, as well as any Citizens who want to stay on their land as it gets taken by the USA (and yes, I know that might turn out to be just the VA part of our Delmarva.
 
Also, for the numbers, remember the Confederacy is losing all of the population of Texas, as well as any Citizens who want to stay on their land as it gets taken by the USA (and yes, I know that might turn out to be just the VA part of our Delmarva.
Well, sure, but there's a huge difference between the concentrated combat deaths of prime-aged males and the population of a given area leaving the country.
 
The worst diplomat in history, bar none

Just finished re-listening to Mike Duncan's epic recounting of the Ten Tragic Days on his Revolutions podcast, and yes, bar none he is the worst unless someone can come up with a worse thing that the de-facto signing off on of a coup and murder of a president.
 
Just finished re-listening to Mike Duncan's epic recounting of the Ten Tragic Days on his Revolutions podcast, and yes, bar none he is the worst unless someone can come up with a worse thing that the de-facto signing off on of a coup and murder of a president.
Would depend on what level of input the ambassador in Santiago in September of 1973 had with Allende's overthrow, though from what I've gleaned that was the CIA being opportunistic when they realized they had a pretty clear opening to "take care of" their perceived problem
 
Would depend on what level of input the ambassador in Santiago in September of 1973 had with Allende's overthrow, though from what I've gleaned that was the CIA being opportunistic when they realized they had a pretty clear opening to "take care of" their perceived problem

Let's not leave out Patrick Egan, the Irish-American ambassador to Chile who instigated the Baltimore Crisis and REALLY wanted the US to invade the country. In an odd side-comment; without the Phoenix Park killings, Egan is more likely to stay in Ireland in this ATL (or move between Britain and France) and is probably an elder statesman of the radicals during the current ...difficulties (yeah, I know. But the 'T' word is overused) in Ireland.
 
Let's not leave out Patrick Egan, the Irish-American ambassador to Chile who instigated the Baltimore Crisis and REALLY wanted the US to invade the country. In an odd side-comment; without the Phoenix Park killings, Egan is more likely to stay in Ireland in this ATL (or move between Britain and France) and is probably an elder statesman of the radicals during the current ...difficulties (yeah, I know. But the 'T' word is overused) in Ireland
I’ve used “internal conflict” and “civil war” interchangeably in my notes, fwiw
 
Heinrich: The Life and Legacy of Germany's Goldkaiser
"...known to both friends and others as the "Very Amiables." That being said, the marriage was by the mid-1910s far from perfect, in part due to the strain of a haemophiliac heir whom Irene frequently encouraged to renounce his rights to the throne on account of his health, and it is here that the "Magyar Mistress," a figure of legend in European historiography, comes into play.

Heinrich himself never admitted to taking a mistress in any of his limited diaries, and Irene's allusions to infidelity on the part of her husband are subjective enough that some doubt exists as to what, precisely, she knew and was referring to. Nonetheless, a fair deal of scholarship suggests that there was indeed a mistress whom Heinrich took sometime between 1914 and 1916 and that the relationship was on-and-off for approximately four or five years, concluding during the Central European War in or around late 1920 or early 1921. The mystery of her identity has led to the moniker "Magyar Mistress" or, alternatively, "the Hungarian Woman," and the fact that it remains a genuine matter of dispute whether she existed is part of the mystique.

It should be noted that the Hungarian Woman has some level of geopolitical implications as well; in Austria, for instance, even to this day it is taken as a given that not only was she real but that she was influential in turning Heinrich's opinion increasingly against Vienna as dangerous negotiations over the renewal of the Ausgleich between the two halves of the Habsburg Empire in 1917 loomed, while Hungarians - who hold Heinrich in very high esteem - enjoy the idea that their nationalism was secured by the efforts of a daughter of the nation in the heart of Berlin. While such a simple story has a certain romantic appeal, it oversimplifies what was really going on in Germany at that time.

While Heinrich, as this book as repeatedly explored, was ambivalent about Prussianism, the German government was not, and in Hungary many of the Prussian elite saw a mirror of their own agrarian, estate-dominated land; parallels were even drawn between the Winged Hussars (despite their Polish origin) and the Teutonic Knights in defending Christendom against barbarian hordes. More generally, the Congress of Budapest and the explosion of Magyarphilic art and literature that had flowed from it had an impact most definitively in Germany, and Magyarphilia crossed ideological lines - for the same reasons that Prussian junkers admired the magnatic rule of Hungary (despite said magnates often being Vienna's most militant supporters), socialists and liberals in Germany empathized with the working and middle classes of Hungary denied suffrage that Germans had enjoyed universally for decades even with the three-class franchise intact in Prussia.

At the risk of oversimplifying, as 1916 turned to 1917 and the Hungarian Crisis developed fully, Germany was perhaps more sympathetic to Hungarian causes, culture and concerns than anywhere else in Europe, at precisely the time when Hungarians themselves were beginning to feel that Vienna's hostility to them was rising dramatically. This sympathy at the top of the German government may indeed have been influenced by a "Magyar Mistress," but it certainly had a solid foundation across German politics and society as well, and this did not go unnoticed in Budapest - or, more crucially, Vienna and Paris..."

- Heinrich: The Life and Legacy of Germany's Goldkaiser [1]

[1] So I've read oblique references to Henirch having a Hungarian mistress in a few places, but have been unable to turn up her identity or if she even existed. So I chose to stick with that mystery in the narrative rather than ditch this due to incomplete research.
 
The Last Days of the Old Confederacy: How the War Was Lost in 1916
"...collapsed on September 9th, three years to the day after the Confederacy's declaration of war against the United States, a fact not lost on the commanders on other side. With the defenses at Lynchburg overrun and Petersburg under direct threat now from both north, east and west, Lejeune had little choice but to begin consolidating his forces further south, placing his new node of command near Greensboro and re-routing reserves, including landship divisions, south of the Roanoke River and its tributary the Dan. A token force in Petersburg stayed behind to tie down Yankee forces to prevent a fighting retreat, but under a barrage of artillery, aerial attack and with the rail routes to Raleigh cut on September 20th, the city surrendered to Hall's army two days later. Virginia was, for all intents and purposes, entirely lost.

The retreat to the new Roanoke-Dan Line in mid-September was both a military success, and a political disaster. Lejeune was able to regroup behind his new and excellent defensive line with short supply trains unthreatened by Yankees from either sky or land, a condition he had not enjoyed in the entire time he had been in command of the Army of the East. But as it occurred simultaneously with the advance of Pershing's forces through Georgia, and preceded the Little March to the Sea in Alabama by a few weeks, it happened during the final six weeks of the war, when few in Charlotte were going to commend anybody for an orderly retreat with minimal losses of men or supplies. Lejeune had shown the competency for which he was famed - indeed, many would say that his ability to force the Yankees to fight for every inch of Virginia between the Rappahannock and the Roanoke through all of 1916 despite the rapidly deteriorating Confederate economy proved his talents - but he had done it when it was too late.

The fall of Savannah in early October essentially slashed the Confederacy into three pieces, with sparsely populated Florida cut off from the Carolinas and the western states by Pershing's force blasting its way across Georgia. This meant that, for all Lejeune's efforts, the leadership of the Confederacy was trapped inside the Carolinas, now threatened from both north and southwest. While North Carolina was indeed the most untouched of all the states, that was little comfort as both states were essentially besieged and the US Navy rerouted to flatten what little was left of ports such as Charleston, Wilmington and New Bern. There was little harvest to speak of and estimates suggested as many as half a million souls could starve in the Carolinas alone - it was plain as day, especially to Lejeune, that the war was lost.

Indeed, it was plain to a great many people with the exception of the President. Even Senator Martin was beginning to silently accept the inevitable, stating in a comment on the makeshift Senate floor in Charlotte's Trade Hall, "We are prisoners of these two great states, unable to leave and maneuver, with few souls left to throw at the Yankees." Disillusionment was high amongst the hundreds of thousands of starving, sick and emaciated Confederates left in the field, in the Carolinas or elsewhere; despite the very real threat from marauding Home Guardsmen, desertion tripled in September and further sextupled throughout October as men saw little point in dying in the field for what was increasingly an inevitable end, while pocketed units surrendered to Yankees and were often taken aback by the magnanimity they were shown by their equally exhausted enemies.

But in the executive's residence in Charlotte, Vardaman remained convinced that, if nothing else, a redoubt in the Carolinas could be held, behind the Savannah and Roanoke Rivers, from which the Confederacy could "make resistance so terrible that the Yankee will not dare cross in" and often wandered the halls of the manor late at night muttering to himself, occasionally even wandering Charlotte at night to speak to citizens and soldiers in the increasingly fortified but anxious war capital. "Surrender is for cowards," he declared to a befuddled Kernan and other members of the ASO in an October 1 meeting meant to persuade the President to immediately telegram a request for surrender "at current lines;" that this was the view of the commander-in-chief was disseminated only in the Carolinas, for telegram and telephone cables westwards had been cut, and Confederate forces in Texas, Alabama, and central Mississippi spent the rest of the next month and a half in alternating waves of collapse and mass surrender. Kernan, for his part, elected to head to Raleigh, unbeknownst to the administration forming a small clique of like-minded officers who were planning on crossing to Yankee lines to attempt to negotiate a secret peace behind the President's back.

Whatever Vardaman's motivations, the irony is that the Roanoke-Dan Line did, in fact, hold until the Armistice; if nothing else credits the choice of Lejeune to make Dixie's last stand and frustrate his counterpart Hall in the extreme south of Virginia for seven weeks with dwindling supplies, then that stands on its own..."

- The Last Days of the Old Confederacy: How the War Was Lost in 1916
 
You've done an excellent job outlining how the home situation for the CSA frayed then completely shattered over the course of the war. The home front often gets completely ignored in TLs - thanks for not falling into that trap.
 
You've done an excellent job outlining how the home situation for the CSA frayed then completely shattered over the course of the war. The home front often gets completely ignored in TLs - thanks for not falling into that trap.
Thank you! I agree, it’s way too often overlooked, though my focus here is more due to my finding the portrayal of how grim the ACW was for civilians what makes “Cold Mountain” such a masterpiece and one of “Gone With the Wind”‘s redeeming qualities

(And I was dismayed the home front content was excised from the “All Quiet” remake since that’s probably the most powerful scene in the book)
 
Love he update as usual, and I'd like to join the chorus of how grand it is to see the home fronts in the GAW (though, as usual, I want MORE :D I ended up helping to reach a class in military history a few years back which focused on the social history of war, and I found the topic fascinating!)

At least this conflict was spared the god awful "war to end wars" propaganda - which is going to have a major impact upon expectation of the peace treaty.

I still would love to see a post (perhaps in the other thread) talking about propaganda in the GAW, because it would be fascinating to see what the different sides relied upon.

And its becoming more and more difficult to see how Vardaman survives this war - he seems to be the biggest obstacle for peace. I'm beginning to suspect, more and more there will be a military coup and Patton will be forced to be the man to sign the treaty.
 
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