The focus here is on land. Japan at sea had nearly all the advantages and none of the disadvantages of the Russians. Crossing the T was a Japanese focus since the Sino-Japanese war. Same with the naval focus and more. To handwave the Japanese Navy requires major changes to Meiji which makes it almost impossible for Japan to consider a conflict with Russia. So the naval victories remain.
This leaves a land victory.
So we begin at Port Arthur. The torpedo strikes fail and the Russians maintain their battleships (pre-dreads). Russia did not leave port due to Japanese forces. And Japan could not counter shore batteries. With the battleships Russian tactics of the Port Arthur Battle would include these much heavier guns. So Port Arthur was a siege from April to December. It ended when Japan brought in 280mm guns which were outside the range of nearly everything. Here is the fun part. These are Armstrong Howitzers with a 8,500 range. Japan could aim at the hills and not be hit back. Most seem to agree this was the main thing which broke the siege.
Now add in the two battleships with their 305mm guns and those 280mm guns are in range. Now Japan would easily pull back but that limits their effectiveness. This however means that Japan which lost 50,000+ casualties at this siege lose even more.
Now Port Arthur not falling means the 1905 campaigns of Japan never occur. So the defensive abilities of Russia remain intact. Likewise by February 1905 more troops arrive. The harsh winter of 1904 meant outside of Port Arthur no real land campaigns occured. So with Port Arthur intact Russia in effect have a strong position. The Battle of Liaoyang can end in another defeat as Japan facing maneuver warfare had clear advantages (namely as they were fine wasting 1,000 men to take a hill which was near impossible in barbwire and trench filled Port Arthur).
So the Tsar can either send the Baltic fleet out or stress the Trans-Siberian railway a great deal more. In either case supplies are not as strong and the fleet is moving out is doomed.
However... Port Arthur withstanding the Japanese would be vastly different from the Japanese (still viewed as a weak useless power) utterly defeating Russia and forcing 24,000+ Russians to surrender.
So if we accept Port Arthur is intact, even if low on supplies, the effect on the government is different.
Now we turn to Russia. OTL by Jan 1905 the revolution begins brought on my agrarian issues, social issues, nationalism, emancipated farmers making little money, and of course a huge crushing foriegn defeat in what many saw as a useless war.
So how do we solve nationalism, excessive labor without jobs, and the war? THROW EM IN THE ARMY.
The Tsar gets a wild idea and needs warm bodies? Trouble with nationalism? Fine... send em out east to reinforce Asia. Sounds nuts but it was floated around the time before Port Arthur fell. When the Port did fall the notion of a land war was seen as ineffective compared to a naval fight.
Russia then sends men east. Given the period it would be similar to how Spain handled the Spanish-American War. "Have you a home?" No... to the army! "Have you a job?" No... to the army! "You have any anti-government ideas?" Yes...to the army!
This is not a force of millions but tens of thousands. But it does clear up all those idle folks eager for change.
Thus Japan never gets Port Arthur and never really kicks Russia out of Asia. By the time TR is fishing to make a peace treaty Japan has some naval victory but not the land victories.
This leaves a land victory.
So we begin at Port Arthur. The torpedo strikes fail and the Russians maintain their battleships (pre-dreads). Russia did not leave port due to Japanese forces. And Japan could not counter shore batteries. With the battleships Russian tactics of the Port Arthur Battle would include these much heavier guns. So Port Arthur was a siege from April to December. It ended when Japan brought in 280mm guns which were outside the range of nearly everything. Here is the fun part. These are Armstrong Howitzers with a 8,500 range. Japan could aim at the hills and not be hit back. Most seem to agree this was the main thing which broke the siege.
Now add in the two battleships with their 305mm guns and those 280mm guns are in range. Now Japan would easily pull back but that limits their effectiveness. This however means that Japan which lost 50,000+ casualties at this siege lose even more.
Now Port Arthur not falling means the 1905 campaigns of Japan never occur. So the defensive abilities of Russia remain intact. Likewise by February 1905 more troops arrive. The harsh winter of 1904 meant outside of Port Arthur no real land campaigns occured. So with Port Arthur intact Russia in effect have a strong position. The Battle of Liaoyang can end in another defeat as Japan facing maneuver warfare had clear advantages (namely as they were fine wasting 1,000 men to take a hill which was near impossible in barbwire and trench filled Port Arthur).
So the Tsar can either send the Baltic fleet out or stress the Trans-Siberian railway a great deal more. In either case supplies are not as strong and the fleet is moving out is doomed.
However... Port Arthur withstanding the Japanese would be vastly different from the Japanese (still viewed as a weak useless power) utterly defeating Russia and forcing 24,000+ Russians to surrender.
So if we accept Port Arthur is intact, even if low on supplies, the effect on the government is different.
Now we turn to Russia. OTL by Jan 1905 the revolution begins brought on my agrarian issues, social issues, nationalism, emancipated farmers making little money, and of course a huge crushing foriegn defeat in what many saw as a useless war.
So how do we solve nationalism, excessive labor without jobs, and the war? THROW EM IN THE ARMY.
The Tsar gets a wild idea and needs warm bodies? Trouble with nationalism? Fine... send em out east to reinforce Asia. Sounds nuts but it was floated around the time before Port Arthur fell. When the Port did fall the notion of a land war was seen as ineffective compared to a naval fight.
Russia then sends men east. Given the period it would be similar to how Spain handled the Spanish-American War. "Have you a home?" No... to the army! "Have you a job?" No... to the army! "You have any anti-government ideas?" Yes...to the army!
This is not a force of millions but tens of thousands. But it does clear up all those idle folks eager for change.
Thus Japan never gets Port Arthur and never really kicks Russia out of Asia. By the time TR is fishing to make a peace treaty Japan has some naval victory but not the land victories.
