Bomster

Gone Fishin'
In the wake of the Great War, Europe was stricken by massive socio-economic upheaval. People all over the continent, war-weary and hungry, were fed up with the contemporary order, and many became attracted to Marxist ideals and socialism. From Russia to Berlin, from Bavaria to Hungary, uprisings occurred and revolution was in the air, but in the end only in Russia did a Marxist revolution succeed and it became an authoritarian dictatorship. But what if more of these revolutions succeeded? What if countries like Germany fell to socialist revolutions too? What would it take for this to happen? And how would the rest of the world react?
 
Marxist communist ideals did give the framework, though he is not the end-all be-all with socialism. Additionally, Russia would've become an authoritarian state regardless of which form of government was in charge.

Cultural infrastructure is often overlooked. Russia and China were massive nations with great numbers of people, so centralized forms of government were needed to keep it together. Additionally, both had cultural pillars designed to capitulate to that authoritarian figure (the Russian Orthodox Church and the Mandate of Heaven) that, even with the Revolution, that "gap" remained that needed to be filled and hence why Russia and China became how they did. Same could be said how most of the fascist and fascist-like nations were Catholic, that had similar patriarchal standings (Italy, Spain, Portugal...)

For other countries, they would've needed to win over the people and likely build up their support by blaming the governments for the war, so delay the revolution. If things get worse and the governments overstep into authoritarianism, then the socialists get the people on their side, and they pretty much overthrow the governments. Germany would likely become something akin to Yugoslavia regarding business and economic models.

Hungary was due to some of the follies of being involved with conflicts with Romania and the repressive attitudes. Though perhaps if things built-up over time, it could likely be smart enough to handle this.

The success of socialist revolutions would very much make a merry mood for various socialists around the world while governments would be terrified. However, they'd ahve to force soldiers into further conflict, which could have consequences, especially if the USSR still rises, and could actually turn the people against the Entente's governments since they got involved in more conflict. This wouldn't lead to uprisings, but it would make the socialists more formidable to prepare themselves. The new socialist powers would need to establish some form of auturky and how to get around the deals the Entente put on them while growing themselves.

While they take care of themselves, foreign govenments would crack down and try to repress dissent around, leading to further bad feelings. When it hits the fan with the Great Depression, the various socialist governments will likely not be affected as much and indeed, this will become very noticeable and more people will side with them further, leading to further dissent and the cycle accelerates onto socialists are elected, possibly trying to be dealt with, and the people rebel. France has a pretty good liklihood though the questions on their colonial empire would linger over their heads.

Ultimately, it will all depend on the leadership being smart. Of course, other places could rise, such as the fascists in Italy and the similar movements in Spain and Portugal, but conflict I think would be avoided until Italy tries expanding on Greece and Albania and other nations, which the socialist bloc could press for advantage for influence. This could lead to a war between the Fascists and Socialists at its worst though it'd be one the Red could win (it'd be Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe Poland, and some forces in Greece and Yugoslavia against Red Gemany, Hungary, possibly Czechoslovakia if things go well there and even France as a co-belligerent).
 

Arctofire

Banned
Yeah, this is a classic Trotskyist wank. 'Oh, if only Germany had become socialist... then none of the horrors of Stalinism would have happened because... reasons.' I'm going to focus mostly on Germany here since that's the topic I know most about. I know that Hungary was communist for a brief period but it was a coup which lacked popular support and therefore fell very quickly.

It's important to note that the reason why the Bolsheviks prevailed in Russia had to do with a very unique set of circumstances.

In Russia, the mood of the country was heavily to the left due to the fatigue with the war as well as the large peasant population who would always vote for the SRs. If you look at the constituent assembly elections in 1917, the results are overwhelmingly parties of the far left. If you compare this to countries like Germany when they had their constituent assembly, there was not even a majority for the SPD and USPD combined, having to rely on the centrist DP and Zendrum. The middle class in Germany was simply too large to allow a Marxist revolution to succeed with popular support.

Whilst in Russia there was fatigue with the war, in Germany it was precisely the opposite. A sense of betrayal that the war had been lost when they could have kept on fighting was felt in many sections of German society, and instead of a uniform shift leftwards, there was a sharp polarisation with both the far left AND far right gaining ground.

If the KPD had Luxemburg and Liebknecht still at the helm instead of being killed during the Spartacist Revolt, as they were the two leaders who could have united the German far left, and in the aftermath of the Kapp Putsch in 1920 have a more organised insurrection, I can see it posing enough of a threat to the Weimar Republic for a civil war to break about. I do not believe that they would win however. The far right and the military had significantly more popular support in Germany than they did in Russia due to the better position of the peasantry and the larger middle class, as well as the aforementioned factors about losing the war, and there was never at any time a large majority in Germany in favour of communism. Luxemburg and Liebknecht also weren't used to working in illegality, and I feel its very unlikely they would kidnap officers to fight for them like the Bolsheviks did.

Germany also had much stronger democratic traditions, with the majority of the German working class being deeply loyal to the SPD and supporting the creation of a parliamentary democracy. If a communist insurrection tried to overthrow the German constitution, even most of the left would not support it. Whilst urban centres like Berlin could fall into communist hands, as the industrial working class in the city were heavily communist OTL, they would not have enough support in the rest of the country to be able to hold their ground. In Russia the Bolsheviks had lost popular support by 1918, and it was only the combination of a fragmented opposition and military skill that landed them victory. In Germany this is very unlikely to happen

The most plausible scenario in a Germany communism scenario is that a better planned uprising from the KPD is a civil war which they lose, and Germany either becomes a right-wing military regime like Hungary, or non-communist democratic forces are able to persuade conservatives to restore democracy, like in Finland. If by miracle the communists actually do win power, they will inherit a nation ruined by a brutal civil war, completely economically isolated from the rest of Europe, and lacking the support of the majority of the populace. Germany would be far poorer and would fall into economic stagnation. For a country used to some of the highest living standards in the world before the war, I simply do not believe that the German populace would accept this, and therefore, I consider the scenario somewhat ASB.

Still, that doesn't stop Trotskyists and other leftists from using it as a romantic 'if only...' to keep their supporters wrapped up in a religious stupor.
 
Last edited:
I feel like America would remain more involved in European affairs since that's a giant red splotch on the map. Similarly, I feel like France could see a rise in nationalism, because their biggest threat and national rival just went red; obviously, coalitions and some concessions to the french socialists are probably gonna happen, but this would be very bad news. On the bright side, because there's no hope of 'Russia and Germany will destroy each other,' there will be little to no appeasement of Germany.
 

Bomster

Gone Fishin'
Yeah, this is a classic Trotskyist wank. 'Oh, if only Germany had become socialist... then none of the horrors of Stalinism would have happened because... reasons.' I'm going to focus mostly on Germany here since that's the topic I know most about. I know that Hungary was communist for a brief period but it was a coup which lacked popular support and therefore fell very quickly.

It's important to note that the reason why the Bolsheviks prevailed in Russia had to do with a very unique set of circumstances.

In Russia, the mood of the country was heavily to the left due to the fatigue with the war as well as the large peasant population who would always vote for the SRs. If you look at the constituent assembly elections in 1917, the results are overwhelmingly parties of the far left. If you compare this to countries like Germany when they had their constituent assembly, there was not even a majority for the SPD and USPD combined, having to rely on the centrist DP and Zendrum. The middle class in Germany was simply too large to allow a Marxist revolution to succeed with popular support.

Whilst in Russia there was fatigue with the war, in Germany it was precisely the opposite. A sense of betrayal that the war had been lost when they could have kept on fighting was felt in many sections of German society, and instead of a uniform shift leftwards, there was a sharp polarisation with both the far left AND far right gaining ground.

If the KPD had Luxemburg and Liebknecht still at the helm instead of being killed during the Spartacist Revolt, as they were the two leaders who could have united the German far left, and in the aftermath of the Kapp Putsch in 1920 have a more organised insurrection, I can see it posing enough of a threat to the Weimar Republic for a civil war to break about. I do not believe that they would win however. The far right and the military had significantly more popular support in Germany than they did in Russia due to the better position of the peasantry and the larger middle class, as well as the aforementioned factors about losing the war, and there was never at any time a large majority in Germany in favour of communism. Luxemburg and Liebknecht also weren't used to working in illegality, and I feel its very unlikely they would kidnap officers to fight for them like the Bolsheviks did.

Germany also had much stronger democratic traditions, with the majority of the German working class being deeply loyal to the SPD and supporting the creation of a parliamentary democracy. If a communist insurrection tried to overthrow the German constitution, even most of the left would not support it. Whilst urban centres like Berlin could fall into communist hands, as the industrial working class in the city were heavily communist OTL, they would not have enough support in the rest of the country to be able to hold their ground. In Russia the Bolsheviks had lost popular support by 1918, and it was only the combination of a fragmented opposition and military skill that landed them victory. In Germany this is very unlikely to happen

The most plausible scenario in a Germany communism scenario is that a better planned uprising from the KPD is a civil war which they lose, and Germany either becomes a right-wing military regime like Hungary, or non-communist democratic forces are able to persuade conservatives to restore democracy, like in Finland. If by miracle the communists actually do win power, they will inherit a nation ruined by a brutal civil war, completely economically isolated from the rest of Europe, and lacking the support of the majority of the populace. Germany would be far poorer and would fall into economic stagnation. For a country used to some of the highest living standards in the world before the war, I simply do not believe that the German populace would accept this, and therefore, I consider the scenario somewhat ASB.

Still, that doesn't stop Trotskyists and other leftists from using it as a romantic 'if only...' to keep their supporters wrapped up in a religious stupor.
Interesting thoughts, I’m not a Trotskyist or anything but I find revolutions fascinating in how they transform societies. Socialist regimes often had a disconnect between their stated aims and their actual policies. Most notably the Soviet Union. So I guess I find the idea of a socialist regime that isn’t authoritarian interesting.
 
Top