Poland's territory after losing the Soviet-Polish War

[History_Pintobean]

As some may already know, I've been working on an AH entitled Petrograd, The Red Flame Of Russia.

I'm unsure about how to carve up Poland between the USSR and Germany.

How would Poland be divided assuming the Red Army marches into Warsaw during the Soviet-Polish War?

Maps and/or graphics would be nice. I'm going to make my own map soon detailing the world after ATL WWII.

 

[Dirk_Pitt]

As some may already know, I've been working on an AH entitled Petrograd, The Red Flame Of Russia.

I'm unsure about how to carve up Poland between the USSR and Germany.

How would Poland be divided assuming the Red Army marches into Warsaw during the Soviet-Polish War?

Maps and/or graphics would be nice. I'm going to make my own map soon detailing the world after ATL WWII.

The boundary was agreed upon in the pact signed between them. Stalin would be forced to give Hitler Warsaw.

 

[RosoMC]

I'd rather expect for Bolsheviks to confirm the Curzon Line as the border and make Poland into a client state with local communists as vassals into Soviet Russia and later Soviet Union.

I don't see the reason for dividing the Poland with Germany if they can take the whole country into their sphere of influence.

 

[RosoMC]

The boundary was agreed upon in the pact signed between them. Stalin would be forced to give Hitler Warsaw.

He asked about Polish-Bolshevik War of 1920. Stalin at the time was only one of the commanders - political at that.

And actually one of the reasons for Soviet failure was that Stalin was hell bent on capturing Cracov so Budienny's Horse Army was unable to reenforce Tukhachevsky's command in time.

 

[History_Pintobean]

The boundary was agreed upon in the pact signed between them. Stalin would be forced to give Hitler Warsaw.

BTW I'm specifically asking about the Soviet-Polish War, assuming that the Soviets defeat Poland's army and seize Warsaw.

The main POD for my AH is this: (taken from the footnotes):

ITTL the Southwestern Army Group's forces headed towards Brest instead of Lvov, allowing them to aid the Western Army Group.

This allows for the cavalry and other forces from the Southwestern Army Group to reinforce the Western Army Group, resulting in the takeover of Warsaw and a Soviet victory in the Soviet-Polish War.

And yes, the Soviets did have plans to divide Poland between themselves and Wiemar Germany.

More then likely (correct me if I'm wrong) lower Silesia (?) would go to Germany, with Danzig and the Polish Corridor also merging with Germany.

I'm still trying to figure out whether or not the Soviet Union would simply annex the territory along the furthest reaches of the Curzon Line (the area containing the towns of Wilno, Baranowicze, Stanislawow, etc.) and possibly create a semi-independent Polish SSR in central Poland with it's capital at Warsaw.

 

[Snaut]

Stalin not driving on Lvov is typically used as a PoD for Bolshevik victories in this war, but I'm slightly dubious about it. Lvov was not undefended (or it would have fallen), and if the Red Army concentrated solely on Warsaw the Polish forces in the south would also have been freed to help relieve it.

Poland would probably be an SSR, with the eastern border not too different from OTL. Some deviations might be possible, though - the early Soviet regime actually took its population's nationality into account. Or, you may get the Curzon Line, and things like the Lvov or Vilnius Polish ASSRs within the Belorussian and Ukrainian SSRs.

Germany probably keeps all of Upper Silesia. It has a chance of getting the corridor too, but I wouldn't take this for granted. If Germany goes for it too early, before western Poland falls, France may react ... unfavorably. And if it waits too long, the Bolsheviks might decide to keep everything for themselves.

 

[MonAngel]

I'm still trying to figure out whether or not the Soviet Union would simply annex the territory along the furthest reaches of the Curzon Line (the area containing the towns of Wilno, Baranowicze, Stanislawow, etc.) and possibly create a semi-independent Polish SSR in central Poland with it's capital at Warsaw.

IMO, Soviets would annex whole Poland as SSR.

 

[RosoMC]

IMO, Soviets would annex whole Poland as SSR.

I agree. Polish corridor would be actually quite valuable for the Soviets, easing their access to the Baltic Sea.

Crap it was Lviv not Cracov. My memory isn't what it used to be.

 

[stubear1012]

A thread to review

There was a thread on a similair topic named "What if the Red Army Captures Warsaw in 1920". It was very interesting but has not be updated in a while.

You may want to read it to see what the author thought would happen.


Stubear1012

 

[Nietzsche]

I agree. Polish corridor would be actually quite valuable for the Soviets, easing their access to the Baltic Sea.

Crap it was Lviv not Cracov. My memory isn't what it used to be.

You assume the Entente would allow it. They'd rather the Corridor be German than Soviet.

 

[RosoMC]

You assume the Entente would allow it. They'd rather the Corridor be German than Soviet.

Most certainly. But whether they would stage a military intervention is another thing altogether.

 

[Cook]

I'm unsure about how to carve up Poland between the USSR and Germany.

Take the old German-Russian border – circa 1914. Russia (Bolshevik or not) wanted its provinces back, while Germany wanted the Pomeranian Corridor and Poznan back.

I'd rather expect for Bolsheviks to confirm the Curzon Line as the border and make Poland into a client state with local communists as vassals into Soviet Russia and later Soviet Union.

The intention at the time was to completely reabsorb Poland into the Soviet Union, just as with Ukraine and the Caucasian Republics. That remained their position right through until 1941; when both countries invaded Poland in 1939, the German intention had been to leave a rump Poland as a puppet state, as per their protectorate of Slovakia. Molotov urged them not to leave any Polish state of any kind.

 

[Zimmerwald1915]

I agree. Polish corridor would be actually quite valuable for the Soviets, easing their access to the Baltic Sea.

I'm not sure the benefits outweigh the costs. Namely, if Poland goes Bolshevik, the Bolsheviks are going to want Poland in the same situation as it was pre-1914: economically tied to Russia, her transportation network and industry linked to Russia's. Keeping the Corridor gives Bolshevik Poland (yes, it'd probably sign any Union Treaty analogue that gets proposed, but til then there wasn't much meaning to the term "SSR") a trade route that does not lead through Russia. There are also other benefits to handing the Corridor to Weimar Germany. The eventual USSR will find its relations with Germany much eased; in returning the Corridor, they will have voided Versailles in the East, strengthening Germany's hand in the West. The German Communists will probably get at least a little domestic goodwill out of such a deal as well, and it's well-known how Bolshevik Russia desperately wanted the German Communists in power.

 

[Binky the Clown]

when both countries invaded Poland in 1939, the German intention had been to leave a rump Poland as a puppet state, as per their protectorate of Slovakia. Molotov urged them not to leave any Polish state of any kind.

I thought Germany's plan had always been to wipe the Polish state off the map so they could turn it into Lebensraum for German settlers...

 

[Snaut]

I thought Germany's plan had always been to wipe the Polish state off the map so they could turn it into Lebensraum for German settlers...

Weimar Republic's politicians did tend to want Poland destroyed, to set the clock back to 1914. Strangely enough, Hitler originally wanted Poland as an ally against the USSR so badly that he was ready to let it keep the corridor. The Poles only made the transition from prospective Aryan allies to just another tribe of subhumans squatting on rightfully German lebensraum when they allied with Britain in early 1939.

 

[Cook]

I thought Germany's plan had always been to wipe the Polish state off the map so they could turn it into Lebensraum for German settlers...

Much as Zaius said. The region that would have constituted the Polish state, either as a protectorate or merely a puppet (either way it would not have been in any way independant), became the zone of the General Government; the yellow zone in the map below:

All of the pre-1914 German territories were incorporated directly into the Reich.

 

[RosoMC]

I'm not sure the benefits outweigh the costs. Namely, if Poland goes Bolshevik, the Bolsheviks are going to want Poland in the same situation as it was pre-1914: economically tied to Russia, her transportation network and industry linked to Russia's. Keeping the Corridor gives Bolshevik Poland (yes, it'd probably sign any Union Treaty analogue that gets proposed, but til then there wasn't much meaning to the term "SSR") a trade route that does not lead through Russia. There are also other benefits to handing the Corridor to Weimar Germany. The eventual USSR will find its relations with Germany much eased; in returning the Corridor, they will have voided Versailles in the East, strengthening Germany's hand in the West. The German Communists will probably get at least a little domestic goodwill out of such a deal as well, and it's well-known how Bolshevik Russia desperately wanted the German Communists in power.

Well, prior to 1914 Congress Kingdom of Poland as it was known then was very much economically tied to Russian Empire. All railroads had russian gauge and I believe the only railroad to the West was the Vienna Railway.

Cities like Zyrardow or Lodz had textile bussinesses that specifically aimed their exports at Russia - many of them went bust when economic ties to Russia were severed first due to Revolution, then due to War of 1920.

I do wonder what are the chances of German Communists seizing power in Weimar Republic if Poland is vassalised/absorbed by Soviet Russia. They were very strong at the time, due to economic constraints caused by Versailles, but I believe that communist uprisings in Germany were subdued by 1920.

 

[Belle Epocque]

How would Poland be divided assuming the Red Army marches into Warsaw during the Soviet-Polish War?

Most likely there will be no Poland. In July of 1920 Soviets instal puppet Provisional Polish Revolutionary Committee in Białystok and announced creation of Polish Soviet Socialist Republic. After fall of Warsaw German Army should invade western Poland in goal of "protecting German minority" and as a result German -Soviet Border and pre 1914 German-Russian border will be identical.

 

[History_Pintobean]

Most likely there will be no Poland.

IMHO I disagree. Poland would more then likely meet the same fate as, say, Georgia or the Ukraine; namely, Poland would be turned into an autonomous Soviet republic ruled from Moscow. Thus Poland would be a federal state within the USSR, i.e. autonomous and not entirely independent.

The Provisional Polish Revolutionary Committee would give way, as I've stated already in my AH, to a Polish Communist Workers' Party which would administer Poland from Warsaw.

I do wonder what are the chances of German Communists seizing power in Weimar Republic if Poland is vassalised/absorbed by Soviet Russia.

Not impossible and, assuming a victory for the Soviets against Poland during the Soviet-Polish War, mostly probable IMHO. Red Army support would serve to shore up the communists' position across Germany, while cities already seized in the communists' uprising could be secured by Proletarian Hundreds and/or intervening Red Army forces.

The main POD for my AH is 1923, when Germany was in dire straits, facing hyperinflation, French occupation of the Ruhr, etc.

There really was a communist uprising in Hamburg, but it failed due to the planned nationwide insurrection being called off at the last minute by the KPD.

In my AH, the national uprising goes ahead which results in the seizure of Berlin, Hamburg and other German cities by KPD militants and the eventual intervention of the Red Army.

 

[Advernt]

Would France be stupid enough to gamble the possibility of a Red Germany though?