Operation Downfall in Hokkaido

The Sandman

Banned
One of the many little details relating to the planned invasion of Japan that were discovered after the war was that the Soviets were planning to invade Hokkaido by the end of August.

Although I don't think the Soviets had all that much naval capacity, the Japanese no longer had anything larger than a destroyer, and essentially all available remaining combat strength from the IJA and IJN was concentrated on Kyushu to deal with the American invasion. A Soviet attack on Hokkaido would have therefore almost certainly succeeded.

The question is this: what effects does Soviet control of Hokkaido have on the post-war world?
 

Wendell

thesandman said:
One of the many little details relating to the planned invasion of Japan that were discovered after the war was that the Soviets were planning to invade Hokkaido by the end of August.

Although I don't think the Soviets had all that much naval capacity, the Japanese no longer had anything larger than a destroyer, and essentially all available remaining combat strength from the IJA and IJN was concentrated on Kyushu to deal with the American invasion. A Soviet attack on Hokkaido would have therefore almost certainly succeeded.

The question is this: what effects does Soviet control of Hokkaido have on the post-war world?
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Are we assuming that Russia goes no further into Japan than Hokkaido?
 

The Sandman

Banned
Yes, as my assumption is that Japan would surrender to the US at that point rather than risk the Soviets overrunning more heavily-populated areas of Japan. At most, the Soviets might be able to grab Tohoku (the northernmost part of Honshu) in addition to Hokkaido. The rest is US occupied.
 

Wendell

thesandman said:
Yes, as my assumption is that Japan would surrender to the US at that point rather than risk the Soviets overrunning more heavily-populated areas of Japan. At most, the Soviets might be able to grab Tohoku (the northernmost part of Honshu) in addition to Hokkaido. The rest is US occupied.
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Might the U.S.S.R. remove all ethnic Japanese from Hokkaido?
 

The Sandman

Banned
Considering what they did in other parts of the world (Konigsberg/Kaliningrad, the Kuriles, etc.) it is possible; I think it more likely, however, that they would create some sort of "North Japan" as a puppet state.
 

Wendell

thesandman said:
Considering what they did in other parts of the world (Konigsberg/Kaliningrad, the Kuriles, etc.) it is possible; I think it more likely, however, that they would create some sort of "North Japan" as a puppet state.
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I think that they would have booted the Japanese, and Hokkaido would still be Russian today.
 

jolo

Without their bread basket, they'd have to import more food - on one hand that means earlier liberalization of their food market, which would be good for dealing with the US and Europe, on the other hand it would mean earlier and more intense efforts towards family planning, to avoid such a dependency.

All in all, "South Japan" looses some of the inhabitants of Hokkaido, some more people to the economic problems after WWII (starvation), and a lot more due to slower population growth afterwards. South Japan would by today have something like 80 million people, while North Japan would have about 5 Million people, many of them Russian or from other communist nations.

Japans position in Asia would be much weaker, but that might also mean less suspicion by formerly Japanese occupied countries.

Therefore, South Japan might be economically nearly as strong as Japan today, and well integrated into a free market and a common defense of other capitalist countries in the area.

On the other hand, there might be more of a revanchist thinking in Japan, maybe even similar to what brewed in Germany after WWI. If that is the case, Japan will be pretty unpopular not only in communist countries, but also in capitalist countries, especially in Asia. We'd have a diplomatically and economically much more isolated Asian Prussia there, ready to arm itself at the first opportunity - some in the Korean war, some in the Vietnam war, and so on.

A right-wing government with nuclear weapons might even try to seize the opportunity of the fall of the Soviet Union to grab Hokkaido and the Kuriles, and, if things go well, also Sachalin. An attack on Kamchatka is also started, but mainly for bargaining in the following peace talks.

It might even work, as the only valuable possession in this list is Hokkaido and the remains of the Soviet Union might think it's unrealistic to hold on to that. So no nuclear weapons are used by either side. International pressure might make the Japanese give up Sachalin in the peace talks.

Such a war would have a lot of consequences for Russia, though - difficult to speculate there. A lot of defense activity might even make the slump after the change to capitalism much less severe and much more excusable to the people.
 

Bulldawg85

Wall

If Hokkaido was communist they would have had an enormous problem with people taking ships to capitalist Japan. Probably something along the lines of what is going on with Cuba and the U.S.
 

1978

Dear Leader in Tokyo

First time poster, but it strikes me that the result of the Russian invasion of Hokkaido, whether it accompanied operations Olympic/Coronet in Kyushu and the Kanto or followed the nuclear strikes at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, would more closely paralell the history of the Korean Peninsula (which likely would have fell to the communists) than that of postwar Germany.

*Russians invade and occupy Hokkaido.

*Americans occupy Honshu and the South.

*Soviets launch major surprise offensive in the ealry 50s simultanious to communist offensive in Korea.

*Soviets elicit support of Japanese Red Army (communist factions) / remaining emperor worshipers, probably around the personage of an iconoclastic and popular member of an arm of the formerly imperial family.

*Soviets push the Americans off Honshu and install the new "Great Leader" puppet in the Imperial Palace in Tokyo.

*Americans reassemble and are able to retake the west. An armistice line is eventually drawn through Yamato, leaving the communists with the industrial center at Nagoya and everything North; and the American-backed state with Kyushu, Shikoku, and a capital in Osaka. A no-mans-land from the Noto Peninsula south through Kyoto and Nara isolates the two states.

*Meanwhile, Kim Il Sung has conquered the Korean Peninsula.

....

Results? Probably, the two proto-soviet puppet states would be great allies, with North Nihon blaming most of the colonial atrocities of the Empire on South Japan.

Perhaps the South would establish closer ties with the ROC (Taiwan) earlier and the two emerge as regional allies of the US against China.

I'll get to work on a map
 

The Sandman

Banned
Welcome to the board, 1978! I trust your stay here will be a pleasant one? :D

I doubt that the Soviets could have managed to seize Honshu. While the 1950 US Army was a shambles compared to the 1950 Red Army, the US Navy was more than a match for anything the Soviets had in the area. Put a carrier task force in the Strait of Tsugaru (and for added fun, do it after the Soviets land sizeable forces in Northern Honshu), and you totally ruin the Red Army's day.

The effects of a humiliating Soviet defeat this early in the Cold War, and at the hands of the US, would probably be interesting though.
 
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Grimm Reaper

Even worse is that this isn't a Soviet war by proxy, but a direct confrontation between the superpowers. Given Soviet disadvantage in nuclear terms at the time, the US liberates all of Japan and takes the Kuriles and Sakhalin Island on Japan's behalf, rendering Vladivostok practically defenseless.
 

Wendell

Dave Howery said:
how many were there to be booted? I'd think we'd see a separate N. Japan state, as in Korea and Germany...
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Look at the num,ber of Germans uprooted, and tell me that it would be unbelievable for Russia to remove the Japanese from Hokkaido.

Also, will the U.S. keep the Ryukyu Islands and the Bonin Islands in this TL?
 

The Sandman

Banned
There wouldn't be much point in the Soviets booting the Japanese out of Hokkaido, as it really isn't valuable enough for the amount of effort it would take. In respect to Germany, Prussia, Pomerania and Silesia were all highly valuable. losing them couldn't have helped the German economy post-war.

And yes, the US would probably keep the Ryukyus and Bonins as per OTL, or at least would officially return them to Japan but "lease" them ala Guantanamo. Okinawa is just too useful as a naval base to let go of.
 

1978

Thank you for the welcome :p !

I conceed that American naval/air power was far greater and the Russians moving in to Hokkaido seems far fetched. But taking the lack of a bomb as a POD, and recalling that a gigantic typhoon over Okinawa, (which actually struck October 8-9 1945 after we had moved our planes north (at least according to these people http://home.att.net/~sallyann4/invasion4.html), would have wiped out most of our invasion force, we were on the verge of a long and protracted ground war to occupy the home islands.

The results may well have been pockets of American Strength in Kyushu (operation Olympic) and Kanto (Operation Coronet) and different Japanese factions fighting on different parts of the island.

While I agree it's unlikely the Russians would have gone in themselves, it seems plausible that they would identify and support a communist puppet faction much like they did in Korea and voila my world unfolds: fanatical hermit DPRN (Democratic People's Republic of Nippon), a.k.a. North Nihon, eating grasshoppers and the bark off of trees, and fanatic capitalist/industrialist/christian Republic of Japan in the south, churning out digital watches and Hondas and christian acapella bands at American college campuses. :)
 

Wendell

Something occurred to me. What if Japan loses Hokkaido, but picks up Taiwan?
Couldn't this scenario allow for different outcomes elsewhere in Asia?
 
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