Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Part 52
Athens, October 5th, 1939

If it was the wrong time for politicking with a war ongoing, the Greeks hadn't really noticed. Since June Georgios Papandreou had come under mass attack over the participation of his son in a Trotskyite organization and it was clear to him that come from supporters of Sofoklis Venizelos, the son of Eleutherios and his rival within the Liberal party. It was true that Kafandaris who had actually succeeded the late Venizelos had backed him but had still forced Papandreou to leave the ministry of education for a different ministry, a slight that Papandreou had been forced to accept at the time but had done so with ill grace. Worse yet he had to see his son leave for the United States as a result for the scandal. Papandreou's reaction had taken nearly 3 months to emerge but now it showed with the creation of the Democratic and Agrarian party. Twenty more Liberal MPs including Ioannis Sofianopoulos and nine senators had followed Papandreou into the new party and while the Democratic MPs had continued offering their support to the government, now Kafandaris, directly controlling only 124 MPs directly depended upon Papandreou who was already asking for his return to the ministry of education. But Kafandaris was not a man to take well to this kind of pressure. If Papandreou was not willing to back him, he'd enter talks with Stratos. And if Stratos would not see reason which he did not, despite Zavitsanos best efforts to arrange a coalition then the matter would be taken to the ballots, after all he felt a new mandate was needed, the voters had elected Venizelos not himself. A snap election was called for November 12th.

Pera Palace hotel, Constantinople, October 12th, 1939

Zygmunt Pulawski, shook hands with the two Greeks opposite him at the table. Pulawski had just got a chance to not just continue working on aircraft but to continue working on aircraft of his own design. And the Greek KEA aircraft factory had just gotten a new technical director and chief designer it sorely lacked. Under instructions by Prodromos Bodosakis, informally assigned by Kafandaris to coordinate the Greek war industries, Greek recruiting agents were fast at work among the Polish civilian refugees offering jobs to any engineers that had managed to escape to Constantinople. Anyone who agreed would find first a room in Bodosakis own Pera palace and then a ticket to a secure job in Athens. For many it was proving more enticing than the uncertain possibility of maybe securing work in some French factory if they managed to reach France. The Polish government in exile, still in shock from the defeat, wasn't minding... much. After all this way some independent design capability might find its way back to Poland after liberation. Besides the Greeks while neutral were proving quietly helpful so far...

Psamatheia/Samatya, Constantinople, October 15th, 1939

"Join the fight for freedom! Volunteer today for the Armee d' Orient!" the poster proclaimed in French... and also Greek, Armenian, Russian and Turkish. In the opinion of the sergeant who was keeping with his squad a wary eye over the volunteer recruiting center at the Surp Kevork church the poster was just wasting printing ink with some of the languages. Armenians were volunteering in reasonable numbers, they were traditionally pro-French and there were over 220,000 of them in Constantinople, which was why the recruiting centre was in one of their churches. Russians so far were mostly indifferent, why a White Russian emigre would join the fight for Poland? Greeks... if Greeks wanted to volunteer there was always the Greek army, they didn't even need to take the ride to Catalca, they could do right here in the city. As for the Turks, the only interest shown was by the people who he was certain were keeping an eye at who was volunteering, Turkish sympathies in this was were for understandable reasons rather specific which was one of the reasons his squad was here. That the situation in the queen of cities was... delicate was rather an understandment. Back in August after the German-Soviet pact France had decided to give a message of firmness and had sent admiral Georges Durand-Viel, the former head of the French navy, as French High Commissioner to Constantinople. But the move had not been accompanied by any notable reinforcement of the allied military presence. Allied forces still consisted of the 6e Regiment Etranger d'infanterie and the British 85th infantry brigade. The Italians were at the other side of the straits at Uskudar their "Corpo truppe di Constantinopoli" must have at least 5,000 men itself. The Turks or for that matter the Greeks? The correct answer was who really knew? But the police was mostly Greeks and Turks and both countries had a tradition of militarized police forces. And you couldn't discount anyone from boy scouts to sports clubs in this damn place. Back in the spring by some unfortunate coincidence ASP, the Pera Sports Club had won for the first time the Greek football championship at the very time Galatasaray had won her first Turkish football championship. Fans of both teams had come out to celebrate. Then promptly clashed with each other, with fists quickly giving place to rocks and crowbars and these promptly escalating to knives, petrol bombs and firearms. It had been by pure luck and prompt intervention by both sides, who did not care for unplanned troubles, that deaths had been avoided. But tension was still very much in the air in the friendly game arranged between ASP and Galatasaray a couple weeks later supposedly to mend fences, that some idiot Greek journalist in Apogevmatini had nicknamed it the "Constantinople champion game" and his counterparts in Tanin had taken up the idea had hardly helped reducing tensions...

Athens, October 19th, 1939

Back in September 10th Euripides Bakirtzis had been sent by Pangalos to meet with Maxime Weygand in Constantinople to discuss military cooperation between France and the Balkan nations. Bakirtzis in his report back to Pangalos in September 15th had not been entirely impressed by Weygand's plans and proposals. Now Weygand was in Athens and Pangalos, very much agreed with his subordinate and protege. In Weygand's opinion it would be impossible for the Germans to breach French defenses in the west, but also equally impossible for the allied armies to breach German defences while Italy would join the war on the German side. The solution? A second front in the Balkans against the Germans that would decide the war very much like the defeat of the central powers in 1918 had begun in the Macedonian front. Pangalos might have been sympathetic but was not blind. Weygand promised that France would provide 4-5 divisions initially to the new Balkan front. Was that in addition to French forces in Syria? No it included them. What would happen if Turkey and Bulgaria chose to fight the Balkan entente then? Surely they would not? Alexandretta had already been given to Turkey and the Balkan Entente nations could negotiate with Bulgaria and Turkey their current differences to secure their neutrality and even inclusion to the Balkan Entente? It was pure chance that Pangalos had not thrown Weygand off his office then and there causing a diplomatic incident. What about specifics on air cover? Some would be surely provided. In the end the only concrete thing that had come out of the meeting was Weygand committing to support Greek requests for arms deliveries from France in anticipation of future cooperation...

Greece, November 12th, 1939

Election time. And the first election since the death of Venizelos. Despite friction between them the Liberals and the new Democratic party had formed a "National Coalition" to enter the election against the "United Opposition" of Stratos and Dragoumis. The National Coalition had come close to winning with 44.42% of the vote. But the United Opposition had won 47.33% and 137 seats in parliament to 113 of the National Coalition. At the party level the National Radical party had won 27.44% and 79 seats, the Conservative Reform party 19,89% and 58 seats, the Liberals 38,03% and 97 seats and the Democratic Agrarian party 6.39% and 16 seats. The Greek Communist party with 5.43%, slightly diminished from 1936, had failed to elect anyone in parliament although it had secured three senators. But who should form the new government? Not Stratos whose party had actually lost votes from the previous election. Not the National Coalition, which fell 13 seats short of a majority. Stratos backing a Dragoumis cabinet would had been logical but Stratos had not forgotten the fall of his own government and his replacement by Dragoumis back in July 1932 and as a former Liberal had contacts also in the Venizelist camp. His 58 MPs made him kingmaker. If the Conservative Reform party backed the Liberals there would be a Liberal government. If it backed the National Radicals, Dragoumis would become prime minister. The role was convenient and he start negotiating with both.

Ansaldo, Genoa, November 15th, 1939

Battleship Impero was launched. Along with her sister Roma they had been laid the previous year, part of the 1938 program much to the consternation of the Italian finance ministry that was facing significant problems paying for all three services on top of the massive costs being incurred due to the Spanish civil war. Fortunately for the ministry the end of the war in summer of 1938 had freed up funding and the navy had finally managed to lay down the three heavy cruisers that since 1935 were supposed to counter the pair of cruisers the Greeks had building in the United States. But now war was closing much earlier than anticipated and both the new battleships and the new cruisers were not going to be ready before 1942 at the earliest. All was a matter of choices of course. Impero and Roma cost about 1.6 billion lire and the three cruisers, Luigi Rizzo, Venezia and Constanzo Ciano another 900 million for a total of 2.5 billion lire. The support to the Spanish nationalists had cost Italy 13.4 billion lire [1] . The Ethiopian war another 33 billion lire...

Greece November 25th, 1939

On the first session of parliament in November 19th Stratos had backed the conservative Liberal Konstantinos Zavitsanos as president of the chamber. But negotiations for a government had kept dragging on, as Stratos kept negotiating with both sides trying to maximize the price of his support and an increasingly frustrated Kafandaris, remained at the head of a caretaker government. What Stratos failed to account for was that he was overplaying his hand and that in person while respected he was hardly popular among his fellow politicians. Or for that matter that Dragoumis while technically in the right was widely respected as an intellectual all across the political spectrum even among communists. Or that passionately anti-Venizelist, Dragoumis family had its own connections to the highest levels of the Venizelist camp, after all the Benakis family were close confidantes of Venizelos and even if someone forgot his own love affair with Penelope Delta nearly a generation ago she and his sister Natalia Mela remained close friends. And thus when the coalition government between the National Radicals and the Liberals would be announced in November 25th the only one surprised was Stratos. Ion Dragoumis would become prime minister for a second time with Kafandaris his deputy. The three war ministries would go to Liberals, War to Kafandaris in person, air to Alexandros Zannas, Penelope's son in law and the Hellenic Air Force's spiritual father and Navy to Alexandros Hatzikyriakos. Both Theodore Pangalos and Ioannis Demestichas would retain command of the army and navy respectively, after all this was not the time to start shifting around the high command. It was about time. Five days later the Soviets invaded Finland...

[1] Or in other words the early end to the Spanish civil war reduced Italian costs by about 900 million enough to allow Italy to begin construction of the Ciano class cruisers a year ahead of OTL (and actually lay them down instead of the war intervening). Then on top of that the Italians will be reacting to Greek naval construction TTL which turns the ships from large light cruisers to heavy cruisers instead. And accidentally also forces the French's hands with their Saint Louis class but that's a story for later...
 
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Nice update as usual. Interesting that Dragoumis would become prime minister at a time like this, I just hope he can successfully navigate the country through the War.
 
Why is it just as a war is kicking off that country's always seem to have political crisis'? XD ah well, at least this one ended fairly smoothly and BEFORE Greece gets involved in the conflict
 
So... is it fair to say that certain Liberal cycles may describe Papandreou as an Apostate ? What delightful irony!

Turkey had already been given to Turkey
Small typo here, Alexandretta.
Weygand committing to support Greek requests for arms deliveries from France in anticipation of future cooperation...
What are the greek requests?

And thus when the coalition government between the National Radicals and the Liberals would be announced in November 25th the only one surprised was Stratos. Ion Dragoumis would become prime minister for a second time with Kafandaris his deputy. The three war ministries would go to Liberals, War to Kafandaris in person, air to Alexandros Zannas, Penelope's son in law and the Hellenic Air Force's spiritual father and Navy to Alexandros Hatzikyriakos. Both Theodore Pangalos and Ioannis Demestichas would retain command of the army and navy respectively, after all this was not the time to start shifting around the high command.
I did not expect a Dragoumis premiership! It seems to me that the political elite of the Balkan Wars era is united again. Basically it is a National Coalition. Stratos' MPs will be sympathetic to either their Dragoumist or Liberal colleagues. The only virulent opposition will come from the three secluded Communist senators that it won't amount to much.

Zannas is definitely good news for the Air Force. I expect him to exert as much political pressure as possible to see any orders fulfilled.

I am looking forward to see a Greek Navy commanded by "Captain Nikephoros". If anything, the man in his youth was brave and decisive.

Ansaldo, Genoa, November 15th, 1939
Is it just me, or is anybody else cheering for Italy laying down more hulls in 1938-1939?

We all know the limitations of the italian war economy and as soon as the war starts, resources will be limited. Battleships and heavy cruisers laid up will be huge resource sinkholes and either completed too late to influence the naval war or not at all. 20/20 hindsight of course, but it is something really satisfying.

The additional resources the Italians throw to develop 16inch battleships and those new cruisers are resources taken from the Army and Regia Aeronautica.
 
Greek interwar politicians aren't exactly my area of specialty, are the election results a good development, or at least better than OTL?
We all know the limitations of the italian war economy and as soon as the war starts, resources will be limited. Battleships and heavy cruisers laid up will be huge resource sinkholes and either completed too late to influence the naval war or not at all. 20/20 hindsight of course, but it is something really satisfying.
Definitely, if Italy is in the war in the same timeframe as OTL those will suck a lot of resources and be lucky to be in service to even begin to justify using said resources on them.
 
In the opinion of the sergeant who was keeping with his squad a wary eye over the volunteer recruiting center at the Surp Kevork church the poster was just wasting printing ink with some of the languages. Armenians were volunteering in reasonable numbers, they were traditionally pro-French and there were over 220,000 of them in Constantinople, which was why the recruiting centre was in one of their churches
Recruiting Armenians is a win-win. They bolster French numbers in Syria while at the same time I wouldn't like to be an Armenian in Constantinople after the Turks invade.

Speaking of Syria, it makes sense that it will become a battlefield, since it stands in the way to Suez and the Kurdish Autonomous Region must be destroyed so as the Kurds in Turkey don't start getting ideas of self-rule. An aspect of such conflict would be the Turkish-Arab relationship during the war. It won't be rosy. Here is an interwar propaganda poster regarding the return of Alexandretta to Turkey.

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"istemeyiz. ne şam’ın şekeri, ne senin yüzün!"
"We don't want it. Neither Damascus candy nor your face!"

As you may see, the depiction of Arabs here is ... problematic to say the least. The slogan in the poster stems from the turkish popular saying "neither damascene candy/sweet nor the face of the Arabs", to signify that somebody is between two unpleasant choices.
 
And thus when the coalition government between the National Radicals and the Liberals would be announced in November 25th the only one surprised was Stratos. Ion Dragoumis would become prime minister for a second time with Kafandaris his deputy. The three war ministries would go to Liberals, War to Kafandaris in person, air to Alexandros Zannas, Penelope's son in law and the Hellenic Air Force's spiritual father and Navy to Alexandros Hatzikyriakos.
In this sentence we see exactly what was predicted by prominent commentators of this TL ; that the death of Venizelos from natural causes would help national reconciliation . Even at the brink of a war, it would be much more difficult for Dragoumis to participate in a national coalition government with Venizelos also in this government (or being the leader of the Liberals). Of course with Venizelos alive Georgios Papandreou would probably not have been able to persuade other Liberal members to follow him out of the party,
 
Yes i believe with venizelos out of the picture greek political thought can finally mature beyond the Great men school of thought and into the ideological or better what's actually good for the state/People as a whole school of thought..of course corporatism is somewhat tained because fascism includes some of the ideas of corporatism but we shall see what will greece do
 
In Weygand's opinion it would be impossible for the Germans to breach French defenses in the west, but also equally impossible for the allied armies to breach German defences while Italy would join the war on the German side. The solution? A second front in the Balkans against the Germans that would decide the war very much like the defeat of the central powers in 1918 had begun in the Macedonian front. Pangalos might have been sympathetic but was not blind. Weygand promised that France would provide 4-5 divisions initially to the new Balkan front. Was that in addition to French forces in Syria? No it included them. What would happen if Turkey and Bulgaria chose to fight the Balkan entente then? Surely they would not? Alexandretta had already been given to Turkey and the Balkan Entente nations could negotiate with Bulgaria and Turkey their current differences to secure their neutrality and even inclusion to the Balkan Entente?
Weygand seems to have no idea of the ongoing diplomatics of the region here. He sees that France has satisfied Turkey with its handing over of Alexandretta, but appears to have not noticed that Turkey's closest allies are Italy and Germany! Especially considering how those two countries helped Recep Peker get into power in the first place!

Now, I doubt Turkey will jump into the war just because Germany asks it to. It doesn't have any reason to pick a fight with the most powerful navy and most powerful army in the world. Cheer on their German buddies? Sure. On the other hand, if the Balkan Entende, including Greece, try to open that second front, then Turkey will happily jump in to secure itself territory lost to the greeks and Constantinople. Especially as much of their foreign policy is "fuck the greeks". And if Italy jumps in on the German side, then Turkey likely will as well. Things that Weygand, whose responsibility includes Syria and Constantinople, should be aware of.

Now, I don't know enough about Bulgaria OTL or TTL, but it seems to me if Turkey jumps in, then they might feel like they have a chance and join in.

Weygand seems to me to be a candidate for having a suprised pikachu face when the Turkish army rolls over the border and destroys his forces later on. And possibly being the only one who did not see it coming.
 
Why is it just as a war is kicking off that country's always seem to have political crisis'? XD ah well, at least this one ended fairly smoothly and BEFORE Greece gets involved in the conflict
Because its proof of the continuation of the nation since ancient times... ;)

It wouldn’t be Greece if there wasn’t a political crisis /joke
Quite. After all every Greek knows he knows better...

So... is it fair to say that certain Liberal cycles may describe Papandreou as an Apostate ? What delightful irony!
Were I a cynic I would remember that one of the reasons he was offered the leadership in the late 1950s was fear he would defect again to the right as he had already done once. I'm very much sympathetic to the old man but he had his fair share of responsibility for the mess in 1965. Although the methods applied to get MPs if the centre union made things rather more... problematic.

What are the greek requests?
"Send us 1,000 artillery pieces, 500 tanks and as many aircraft". More seriously the Greeks are relatively well off in light arms, by the end of 1939 they have over 650,000 rifles available for example and reasonably well of in mountain artillery. But they want heavy artillery, anti-aircraft guns, anti-tank guns, tanks, aircraft, that Greece is doing better does not mean it's matching France or Germany... or Poland equipment wise.

I did not expect a Dragoumis premiership! It seems to me that the political elite of the Balkan Wars era is united again. Basically it is a National Coalition. Stratos' MPs will be sympathetic to either their Dragoumist or Liberal colleagues. The only virulent opposition will come from the three secluded Communist senators that it won't amount to much.
Dragoumis family was initially VERY close to Venizelism. One wonders what might had happened if that match between Venizelos and Natalia Melas had actually gone ahead and they had married...
I am looking forward to see a Greek Navy commanded by "Captain Nikephoros". If anything, the man in his youth was brave and decisive.
In his youth? In 1935 he just walked into the Salamis naval base with a handful officers, took over the fleet and sailed away with it... Mind you I think well of Sakellariou his OTL counterpart.
Is it just me, or is anybody else cheering for Italy laying down more hulls in 1938-1939?
Well the Italians saved nearly a billion lire from the early end of the Spanish civil war, mostly in maintainance costs for the Corpo Truppe Voluntare. the 8.3 billion in direct aid to the Nationalist government have still gone there. What should they be building with these? That's roughly 10 million pounds there, enough for a thousand aircraft. Too bad that without a war on in makes sense to buy already authorized ships instead. :p

We all know the limitations of the italian war economy and as soon as the war starts, resources will be limited. Battleships and heavy cruisers laid up will be huge resource sinkholes and either completed too late to influence the naval war or not at all. 20/20 hindsight of course, but it is something really satisfying.
I think that under the set of circumstances Italy operates, namely a Greek navy that can be a pain in the posterior TTL, it's plausible for the Italians to go for the additional cruisers... after all the real difference here is switching from 9,500t light cruisers to 11,500t heavy cruisers and the treasury not dragging its feet till July 1939 to release funds.

The additional resources the Italians throw to develop 16inch battleships and those new cruisers are resources taken from the Army and Regia Aeronautica.
The 16in ships were kept at the same size with the 15in battleships of OTL, technically all are 35,000t treaty ships even if they are closer to 41,000t in reality. The new cruisers... there went the resources gained from the end of the Spanish civil war, initially at least.

Greek interwar politicians aren't exactly my area of specialty, are the election results a good development, or at least better than OTL?
In OTL you had a royal dictatorship installed in August 1936, so any parliamentary politics are a distinct improvement.

Definitely, if Italy is in the war in the same timeframe as OTL those will suck a lot of resources and be lucky to be in service to even begin to justify using said resources on them.
Independence class CVLs... just thinking out loudly here, but what might be faster Aquila and Sparviero or one or more of the 3 hulls getting the Independence treatment? After all such plans as seen by the proposal to turn Impero to a carrier were around.

Recruiting Armenians is a win-win. They bolster French numbers in Syria while at the same time I wouldn't like to be an Armenian in Constantinople after the Turks invade.

Speaking of Syria, it makes sense that it will become a battlefield, since it stands in the way to Suez and the Kurdish Autonomous Region must be destroyed so as the Kurds in Turkey don't start getting ideas of self-rule. An aspect of such conflict would be the Turkish-Arab relationship during the war. It won't be rosy. Here is an interwar propaganda poster regarding the return of Alexandretta to Turkey.
That's true. Of course there is always logistics to consider. A Turkish invasion of Syria has only the old Baghdad railroad behind it and a good chunk of it runs parallel to the border and is in Syria TTL.

In this sentence we see exactly what was predicted by prominent commentators of this TL ; that the death of Venizelos from natural causes would help national reconciliation . Even at the brink of a war, it would be much more difficult for Dragoumis to participate in a national coalition government with Venizelos also in this government (or being the leader of the Liberals). Of course with Venizelos alive Georgios Papandreou would probably not have been able to persuade other Liberal members to follow him out of the party,
As Dafnis I think put it, royalists could work together with Venizelists but not with Venizelos. This was evident as early as the ecumenical government in 1926.
Yes i believe with venizelos out of the picture greek political thought can finally mature beyond the Great men school of thought and into the ideological or better what's actually good for the state/People as a whole school of thought..of course corporatism is somewhat tained because fascism includes some of the ideas of corporatism but we shall see what will greece do
I'm not certain Greeks really matured beyond it at least before the 2000s. You have Karamanlis. You have Papandreou. You have people voting for the former's nephew and the latter's son just due to their names. You have Makarios...
 
I quite agree with you on the immaturity of greek political thought..and that is why i am hoping for a change because we all saw how it affected our country
 
Weygand seems to have no idea of the ongoing diplomatics of the region here. He sees that France has satisfied Turkey with its handing over of Alexandretta, but appears to have not noticed that Turkey's closest allies are Italy and Germany! Especially considering how those two countries helped Recep Peker get into power in the first place!
He probably has... but it seems to me France (and also Britain) historically did tend both to underestimate the importance minors gave to such minor things like their own territorial integrity and security, "The big issue is Germany, don't you see that giving chunks of your country to someone else furthers the big issue that matters?" and to overestimate their ability to buy off Bulgaria and Turkey in both world wars. With a marked lack of success one might add. But frex Bulgaria was comppletely ignored in the OTL Balkan front schemes (beyond being certain it could be bought off) while the relation with Turkey could be reasonably summed up to "we keep hoping the Turks join all the way to 1944 despite them making obviously impossible demands to be left alone).

Which could be summed to "I have this really neat plan for a Balkan front, don't you see that you should give the Turks back Smyrna for it to succeed?"
 
Which could be summed to "I have this really neat plan for a Balkan front, don't you see that you should give the Turks back Smyrna for it to succeed?"
"Funny, I have this really great idea on how to end the war. It involves France handing back Alsace-Lorraine. No? Didn't think so."
 
Part 53
Finland, November 30th, 1939

Twenty-one Soviet divisions, totalling roughly 450,000 men crossed the Finish border after negotiations with the Finish government had failed. The Soviets had produced a puppet government under Otto Kuusinen, claiming it was the legitimate government supported by the people of Finland but not many in Finland or the world were particularly impressed. Despite being heavily outnumbered and even more heavily outgunned, Finland had 32 tanks and 114 to take on 2,500 tanks and nearly 3,900 aircraft on the Soviet side, the Finnish army fought back. Worst yet for the Soviets, whose own army had been gutted by the purges, they fought back successfully despite being heavily outnumbered and massively outgunned.

Constantinople, December 14th, 1939

It had taken the League of Nations 15 days to expel the Soviet Union from its members in reaction to the invasion of Finland, not the swiftest reaction even at this late time when its non reaction to German, Italian and Japanese reaction had reduced the League to complete irrelevance. But Britain and France had actually received the news of the war in Finland, with resolution, one might even say enthusiasm that seemed at the moment to be completely lacking from their war against Germany, where much to the Polish dismay hardly a shot was being fired at the moment. Planning for sending an expeditionary force to Finland through Sweden and Norway had begun and the plans to bomb the Soviet oilfields in Baku had gained renewed momentum as it was hoped that bombing Baku would cripple the Soviet economy leading possibly even to a collapse of the regime and through crippling the Soviet economy also heavily affect the Germans. The Soviet invasion had also brought drastic reinforcement of the allied position here in Constantinople as well. A French squadron consisting of the battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, a light cruiser and 3 destroyers had sailed to Constantinople, under admiral Castex whom Darlan wanted away from France proper, the French army was forming a new division, the 193e Division d'Infanterie, adding the 24e Régiment Mixte Colonial from Syria and the newly formed 2e Regiment Infanterie Armenienne to the 6e REI already present in Constantinople, while agreement had been reached with the Polish government in exile to form up one two new divisions directly in Constantinople in addition to the ones forming in France. After all Poles leaving internment in Romania had to pass through the City...

Near the Azores, December 21st, 1939

The German navy had begun the war with two out of its three panzerschiffe already in the Atlantic to attack allied shipping. Of the two the Admiral Graf Spee assigned to the North Atlantic, had to be return to Germany in mid November after managing to sink or capture three ships. Deutschland assigned to the South Atlantic has had a far more profitable voyage, reaching all the way to the Indian ocean before increasing wear and tear make her captain turn north and head for Germany. On the 18th she sinks a Greek freighter, her eight ship but not before its captain can radio a distress signal, drawing allied hunting groups after her. It is Force Y consisting of the French battleship Dunkerque and HMS Neptune that gets lucky as floatplanes flying off the French ship detect the German raider. Deutschland's captain tries to evade, hoping that the allies will lose him under dark, but the two allied ships have the speed advantage and close the distance before he an do so. Finally Deutschland having no other option turns to give battle, after all she has a reasonable chance of beating off a pair of allied cruisers. Dunkerque specifically designed to take down the panzershiffe is different beast altogether though. Her armour proves invulnerable to the German ship's 283mm guns,just as designed. Deutschland's armour on the other hand is not completely invulnerable even against the Neptune's 6in guns, far less Dunkerque. Two hours later Deutschland is no more. And allied propaganda can pun that Germany has been sunk...

Stockholm, January 10th, 1940

The Soviet Union officially was rejecting any negotiations with the Finnish government, after all it was not recognising it in the first place. Unofficially Alexandra Kollontai the Soviet ambassador in Finland begun negotiating with Finish representatives. After six weeks of fighting the Soviet war was becoming an embarrassment, with the Soviet army taking tens of thousands of casualties so far for no tangible gain on the ground. And the Soviet establishment was getting gravely concerned over the possibility of Western intervention in the war. The large scale reinforcement of allied forces in Constantinople had not been missed, while NKVD agents in Constantinople were also reporting increasing numbers of volunteers from the large White Russian community of the city to the French army following the start of the Finnish war. Soviet paranoia in general and Stalin's in particular could run amok on much flimsier evidence than French battleships anchored on the Golden Horn...

Belgium, January 17th, 1940

The day passed quietly. There had been some concern a few days before when movements by the 6th German army had been detected near the border but nothing had come out of them. Belgium remained mobilized since September but remained so far neutral. Even though the Belgian high command was understandably more weary of the Germans than the Western allies, technically it remained strictly neutral towards both, the Belgian border crossing to France were closed with roadblocks on them for the unlikely event the French marched in uninvited. It would be only after the war that it would be learned that the Germans had intended to invade the west on January 17th and the invasion had been postponed between bad weather and no-one in the German high command being particularly happy with their current operations plan...

Rome, January 21st, 1940

The outbreak of the war in Europe had put Italy in the somewhat odd position of being the only power beyond the United States capable of exporting arms, thus gaining much needed foreign exchange, but at the very time that it was also preparing itself for war. A careful balance needed to be struck. A balance was stuck. Whether it was a careful one was a different question. Back in December Italy had informed both Sweden and Turkey that it was willing to offer for sale warships already in service with the Italian navy and military commissions from both countries had quickly reached Italy. Sweden felt understandably extremely vulnerable beween the general European war and the Soviet war with Finland. On December 30 the Swedes had reported back home that the Italians were willing to sell the Barbiano class cruisers for 45 million krone, the Dardo class destroyers for 15 million, Sella class destroyers for 8.1 million and Spica class torpedo boats for 7.6 million. [1] The Swedes had concluded a deal to buy 216 aircraft, two Sella and two Spica class ships. Things were more complicated with Turkey. The Turks had already a light cruiser, 4 destroyers and as many submarines under construction in Italian yards. The cruiser laid down back in April 1937 would be complete by April. The submarines laid down back in June, had already been launched and should be ready by the summer, Italian yards averaged about a year to complete a submarine. The destroyers thought would not be ready before the summer of 1941 and Turkey felt that this might be too late, at a moment that her own navy was in need of immediate reinforcement and felt itself threatened in the aftermath of the German-Soviet pact and the massive reinforcement of the allied presence in Constantinople, but her budget was already very strained. But the Italians would not mind to see the Soldati class destroyers currently under construction in their own service. Thus grounds for a deal could be found. The destroyers currently under construction would be taken over by the Regia Marina. In their place the light cruiser Alberto da Giussano and the 4 Dardo class destroyers would be immediately delivered to he Turkish navy.

Piraeus, February 1st, 1940

Fifty Vickers Mark VI tanks start unloading in the docks. Both these and the French R-35 tanks of which the Greeks had received 50 in January and were expecting another 50 in April were a far cry from the Somua S-35 tanks the Greeks had tried and failed to buy or for that matter from the privately designed Vickers heavy cruiser of which Greece, its own arms industry still closely tied to British company, had been the first customer with a hundred machines and a production licence ordered early the previous year ahead of the British war office which had accepted the design only in April. At 25 tons, with 70mm frontal armour and a 400hp diesel engine, sir John Carden's latest design had been everything the Greeks might had desired aside from not existing as deliveries had been delayed indefinitely by the start of the war and so far the difficulties over ELEO setting up production locally were proving much greater than originally expected. Just to add to the irony the new tank had even retained its Greek mythological name, "Centaur", when accepted into British service. [2] At least the allies by now were somewhat less sparing with other material, 60 4.5in and 155mm howitzers, a dozen 105mm guns and about two hundred 25mm anti-tank guns were being delivered. And if domestic industry could not, yet, produce tanks it could at least cover other needs. The first locally made T-40 rifles had already been delivered to units of the 1st Mountain Infantry brigade as were the first locally designed automatic carbines...

TOMTAS aircraft factory, Kayseri, February 10th, 1941

Four more Bf-109E fighters delivered in crates through Italy were brought into flying condition. The Turkish air force was most satisfied with the aircraft, the initial order for 60 had been followed by a second order for 40 more aircraft. The Turks would had liked to build the aircraft locally but there had been surprising or given the essentially feudal nature of the German administration perhaps not so surprising difficulties to get the Germans to agree to allow licence production, which was why TOMTAS was preparing to locally build the Reggiane Re.2000. This still put TOMTAS ahead of the Bulgarian DAR, the Bulgarian attempt to locally manufacture the Avia B.135 had been actively sabotaged by the Germans, if not the Greeks and the Yugoslavs, reports from Athens had the first locally built Merlin powered P.53s in service thanks to the efforts of Pulawski. But one could be philosophical about it, the Germans were still making deliveries on schedule while the Greeks and the Yugoslavs had to contend with the Hurricanes delivered to Yugoslavia and French promises for LN-161s. It was no accident that the Greeks had turned to the US ordering Martin 167s recently...

[1] Source here from page 24 on.

[2] Centaur is of course the Lost Monkeys version of the Valiant tank in the excellent Sir John Carden lives TL. Sir John's survival is incidental here, with a point of divergence in late 1920 Carden finding his way into the same aircraft crash 16 years later or said crash happening in the first place would be highly problematic. @allanpcameron is of course treating his subject in far greater detail and far better than I have any hope doing here. I'll only say in my defence that my initial Centaur was to be "21t, with 70mm frontal armor and a 340hp Liberty engine" so relatively close. Shorta kinda so.
 
Perhaps Lascaris should be renamed "Bomber" Lascaris a la Harris, since today's post was carpet bombing! One bomb after another!

the privately designed Vickers heavy cruiser
So... the British got the original 100 Centaurs of the greek order. How is the current production going? Is it fair to assume that their doctrine and tactics in armoured warfare remain the same as in OTL?

The first locally made T-40 rifles had already been delivered to units of the 1st Mountain Infantry brigade as were the first locally designed automatic carbines...
If the first FN-40(?) are already delivered in the Greek Army, then it means it is already in service with the French Army. Could it be that Active and perhaps A Series divisions can get the rifle before May 1940?

And 1st Mountain Brigade... Is it fair to assume that Euzone battalions make up this unit? How different is it in terms of doctrine compared to the regular OTL infantry divisions?

Greece producing mortars, alongside EPK sub-machine guns and semi-automatic rifles, means that mountain infantry has incredible firepower compared to OTL. If we add the OTL performance of Euzone regiments with TTL equipment, Greece may have the best mountain infantry in Europe, If not the best, then on par with gebirgsjagers and chasseurs alpins.

and so far the difficulties over ELEO setting up production locally were proving much greater than originally expected
Still, an armoured brigade with Mk VI and R35s will give valuable peacetie experience. Not to mention that R35s with their 37mm gun will be enough to deal with italian tankettes. My guess is that a certain Davakis will be the commander of the armoured formation.

Even with difficulties setting up production, by the time Greece enters the war, its native industry will have the equipment and expertise to service Centaurs. The Allies get a valuable factory in Athens that can support greek and british Centaurs in east Mediterranean. Regarding production itself, every little bit counts. Even if the production is at 10 tanks per month from March onwards, it can provide an armoured regiment come October 1940. Or earlier if a certain italian submarine torpedoes a greek ship on August 15th.
At 25 tons, with 70mm frontal armour and a 400hp diesel engine
With a 2pdr gun while the 6 pdr is under the same development schedule as in Allan's excellent timeline?

Four more Bf-109E fighters delivered in crates through Italy were brought into flying condition. The Turkish air force was most satisfied with the aircraft, the initial order for 60 had been followed by a second order for 40 more aircraft.
SO the Germans have exported more or less the same number of Emils as in OTL?

reports from Athens had the first locally built Merlin powered P.53s in service thanks to the efforts of Pulawski
Is there a link with the potential chracteristics and appearance of P.53?
I continue my lobbying efforts of seeing a polish squadron, flying polish aircraft over greek skies. Epicness.

Near the Azores, December 21st, 1939
Instead of Graf Spee sunk by 3 british light cruisers, Deutschland itself is sunk by a combined anglo-french force. Good for cooperation, building ties among the two navies, get the two great allies closer. If anything naval cooperation will get a boost. Next step, to see the french Twins demolish the german Twins somewhere south of the Lofoten.

battleship Lorraine, 3 heavy cruisers, a light cruiser and 3 destroyers had sailed to Constantinople, under admiral Castex whom Darlan wanted away from France proper
I smell a "Castex Fights On" coming ...

The large scale reinforcement of allied forces in Constantinople had not been missed, while NKVD agents in Constantinople were also reporting increasing numbers of volunteers from the large White Russian community of the city to the French army following the start of the Finnish war. Soviet paranoia in general and Stalin's in particular could run amok on much flimsier evidence than French battleships anchored on the Golden Horn...
What and successful Winter War would mean? How is it changing things? Will Finland keep Karelia? If so, there are few reasons for the Continuation War.

Between Armenians, Poles and White Russians, the French have potentially dozens of thousands of men. If there is political will, the veteran Poles can be send to France and quickly form divisions. However, there is no POD that would change how senior french generals deemed the performance of the Polish Army. If they take a more sluggish approach to re-equip the Poles, they may send them to Syria.

Sounds like France will still fall
The main problem is the training conducted in peacetime, C&C and Gamelin. Now, there is no POD to change the first two things. But Georges doesn't get injured as in OTL. It may mean something.
 
So... the British got the original 100 Centaurs of the greek order. How is the current production going? Is it fair to assume that their doctrine and tactics in armoured warfare remain the same as in OTL?
In essence I see Valiant err Centaur taking up the place of the Valentine tank of OTL, with any gains from streamlining production et all being cancelled out by it being a notably heavier machine. That said in OTL the Valentine was approved in April 39 and ordered in July 39 for initial service on May 40 which was actually delayed to September. TTL the Centaur is about three months ahead of this, without the war first deliveries by Vickers to the Greeks would had been taking place around February.

If the first FN-40(?) are already delivered in the Greek Army, then it means it is already in service with the French Army. Could it be that Active and perhaps A Series divisions can get the rifle before May 1940?
Being a Belgian design... it is not. But TTL thanks to the butterflies that led to the adoption of .276 Garand by the US, Britain has actually ordered the Vickers-Pedersen rifle so introduction of semi-automatic rifles, should be a bit ahead of the curve elsewhere as well, call it six months to a year. Mass introduction was coming anyway by 1939, the French were preparing to introduce their excellent MAS40, the Germans had their own rather less impressive designs, the Soviets were already mass producing SVT-38/40. Then you had Polish, Swedish and Belgian designs.

In the Greeks particular case, even in OTL you had from the mid 1920s the Chronis semi-automatic rifle, Chronis was was at the time in command of the army's war material directorate. Then you have the EPK "machine gun", you'll notice that here I'm taking the rather less glamorous line that it was more or less an automatic carbine , not a full fledged assault rifle as is usually claimed. Then you have in 1940-41 the Rigopoulos conversion of the Mannlicher to an automatic rifle, like Charlton did with the Enflield at about the same time. So following the curve looks logical and FN the obvious place to turn for a design.

And 1st Mountain Brigade... Is it fair to assume that Euzone battalions make up this unit? How different is it in terms of doctrine compared to the regular OTL infantry divisions?
The Greeks are following closely French organizational models in this era. A Greek mountain brigade is similar to a French Chasseurs Alpins brigade with two euzone regiments. Of course in the Greek case even the majority of the infantry divisions uses mountain artillery... but a richer better equipped army also means an army that its average division is not as light.

Greece producing mortars, alongside EPK sub-machine guns and semi-automatic rifles, means that mountain infantry has incredible firepower compared to OTL. If we add the OTL performance of Euzone regiments with TTL equipment, Greece may have the best mountain infantry in Europe, If not the best, then on par with gebirgsjagers and chasseurs alpins.
The Greeks at the moment are able to build about 1500 rifles of all types per month. It will be a while till significant numbers of weapons are actually in use...

Still, an armoured brigade with Mk VI and R35s will give valuable peacetie experience. Not to mention that R35s with their 37mm gun will be enough to deal with italian tankettes. My guess is that a certain Davakis will be the commander of the armoured formation.

Even with difficulties setting up production, by the time Greece enters the war, its native industry will have the equipment and expertise to service Centaurs. The Allies get a valuable factory in Athens that can support greek and british Centaurs in east Mediterranean. Regarding production itself, every little bit counts. Even if the production is at 10 tanks per month from March onwards, it can provide an armoured regiment come October 1940. Or earlier if a certain italian submarine torpedoes a greek ship on August 15th.
Let's begin with proper repair shops for a start...

SO the Germans have exported more or less the same number of Emils as in OTL?
They have not exported to the Yugoslavs, as her pro-axis prime minister was overthrown earlier here, but the Turkish orders (60 aircraft in OTL) go ahead on schedule.

Is there a link with the potential chracteristics and appearance of P.53?
Properly it should be this: http://panssarivaunut.blogspot.com/2015/12/pzl56-kania.html

TTL with Dabrowski and Pulawski around it is for practical purposes this.
Here https://alchetron.com/PZL.55

Now the Poles expected to get 660 kph with a 1600hp engine and the prototype is mentioned making 537 kph with a 860hp engine, that's on par with the Avia B-135 which made 535kph and slightly faster than the Rogozarski IK-3, that made 527kph both on the same engine. Of course the KEA Ierax (the Greeks have just translated the Polish name) is using a licence built Merlin III of 1030hp instead...

Instead of Graf Spee sunk by 3 british light cruisers, Deutschland itself is sunk by a combined anglo-french force. Good for cooperation, building ties among the two navies, get the two great allies closer. If anything naval cooperation will get a boost. Next step, to see the french Twins demolish the german Twins somewhere south of the Lofoten.
I'll only note the German twins are built with 15in guns TTL. Dunkerque was designed to be invulnerable to 283mm...
What and successful Winter War would mean? How is it changing things? Will Finland keep Karelia? If so, there are few reasons for the Continuation War.
Lets only note that the Soviets DID start informal negotiations even in OTL. Of course OTL allied forrces in striking distance of Odessa and Sevastopol were not a factor...

Between Armenians, Poles and White Russians, the French have potentially dozens of thousands of men. If there is political will, the veteran Poles can be send to France and quickly form divisions. However, there is no POD that would change how senior french generals deemed the performance of the Polish Army. If they take a more sluggish approach to re-equip the Poles, they may send them to Syria.
For the time being they keep them in Constantinople and the straits zone, they are strategically useful there, more so than Syria... or France. Why waste good French divisions in the east when the Poles are already there? Of course French divisions are superior! They are French aren't they...

The main problem is the training conducted in peacetime, C&C and Gamelin. Now, there is no POD to change the first two things. But Georges doesn't get injured as in OTL. It may mean something.
One could mention the other obvious if small butterfly in the last instalment...
 
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