Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Interestingly the independent Kurdish state could become a real thorn in Turkey's side just by existing; nothing like a war to breed unrest and the Kurds inside Turkey could well end up revolting over forced enlistment, food shortages etc etc and end up receiving not-so-covert help from their southern neighbours. Of course Turkey could try to solve that problem by invading the Kurdish state at the outbreak of war but we'll see I suppose.
Independent is... questionable at the moment, Syria and Lebanon may have been proclaimed independent but for every practical purpose they are still a French colony. But that doesn't change the obvious boon for Kurdish nationalism that is the Kurdish statelet the French have created in Syria. Neither Turkey nor Syria much care for its existence to put it mildly...

1939, at last... Action is so close. I can't wait ^^
Someone would think that you people are in it just for the battleship porn. :p
 
Well not onlyfor battleships but also for aircraft artillery and better weapons for the greek army in general
Ok since you want weapons... I'll just leave a few things here :p

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The level of research, the attention to the detail, the calculation and the effort of Lascaris to produce a most realistic story never cease to amaze me.
 
Well well what do my eyes see..anti tank ammo..i guess this ttl Italian tank are not going to useless like in otl..they are going to be excellent target practice the greek army.. practice which is going to be needed when the germans come
 
Part 49
London, March 31st 1939

Two weeks before Germany had occupied what remained of Czechoslovakia despite express promises the previous year it would not do so. Britain and France had in return given Poland a guarantee of its independence should it be threatened by Germany. How much direct military help Poland could get by the treaty was questionable. But indirectly Germany would likely think twice about threatening Poland if it also meant wr with the western powers or so it was hoped at least. Negotiations for military coordination and a loan to Poland begun almost immediately but would go glacially slowly much to the Polish frustration. In the meantime Poland did what it could to prepare on its own. The first P.50 fighters were already in service, it was expected that at least 50 would be available by the end of the summer, with production peaking up pace afterwards, as would about 120 PZL.37 bombers. Both aircraft had also generated considerable international interest. Yugoslavia had already taken delivery of 20 PZL.27 and was preparing to build it locally. Greece after initially ordering the French LeO.45 only for the order to be cancelled due to constant delays in its development had just placed an order for two dozen with another 25 to be built locally while it had also bought a licence for the P.53 variant of P.50 to replace P.24 in KEA production lines. Turkish and Bulgarian bids for both aircraft had been politely refused with a bit of French prompting behind the scenes. But Poland had also gotten a perhaps surprising order from Spain where Ochoa after the nationalist victory in the civil war seemed to be quietly trying to reduce German and Italian influence within his country.

Kleisura pass, Greek-Albanian border, April 7th 1939

The second lieutenant in command of the border post looked incredulously at the small motorcade that had reached his post. At dawn the whole VIII Infantry division in Epirus had been put on high alert at the news of Italian naval landings in Durrazo and Valona and the order to call up reservists throughout Epirus had quickly followed. But he hadn;t expected within hours of the invasion to have to deal with king Zog of Albania showing up at his post, with his family, some retainers and apparently as much of the gold of the central bank of Albania as he could carry away. After all countries didn't fall in a single day did they? The Ethiopians had fought on for months and no news of Italians near the border had reached him. The lieutenant, a reservist that had just taken his degree from the Panteion university of political sciences, before being called up to do his term, had been taught that Zog had been the Italians creature. But then what he was doing here escaping his own masters, what were the Italians doing invading their own satellite in the first place? He did the right thing, called his battalion for instructions. About two hours later king Zog and his entourage were allowed into Greece. After a few days in Athens the former king would pack up and leave for Paris where he settled. Albania itself was proclaimed a protectorate of Italy. It hadn't been a particularly auspicious affair. The Albanian army even when it tried to resist had been sabotaged by its Italian trainers while the population had been at best indifferent to the Italians. With the Italians publicly backing the Albanian national aspirations against Greece and Yugoslavia, on April 12th the Albanian parliament had deposed Zog and proclaimed Victor Emanuelle III as the new king of Albania. And yet the handful of mostly gendarmerie units that had fought back against the 22,000 Italian invaders had given the Italians significant trouble. As an Italian commentator none too diplomatically put it "if only the Albanians had possessed a well-armed fire-brigade, they could have driven us into the Adriatic". But they did not...

Paris, April 28th 1939

France and Britain had reacted to the Italian takeover of Albania by extending their guarantees to Greece and Romania on April 13th but not to Yugoslavia, although in its case its alliance treaty with France still stood. Britain so far, despite relatively close ties with Greece had kept her at arms length refusing the Greek request for an outright alliance out of fear of alienating Italy and for the same reason had dissuaded France from offering an official alliance to the Balkan Entente in early 1937. Anthony Eden had resigned for the British cabinet over continued appeasement of Italy, Churchill and Lloyd George, the latter probably influenced by Venizelos, had repeatedly attacked the policy but it was only recently that Britain had taken any tangible steps in support of her friends. The occupation of Albania would prove the last straw for the western powers and Venizelos had taken advantage of it rushing to London and then Paris as soon as it looked the Italians were not going to invade Greece after occupying Albania. Two weeks of intense negotiations had secured 150 million francs in French war credits, an agreement for Greece to locally produce the Merlin III, under licence, for 50,000 pounds and an obligation to deliver part of the production to British forces in the Near East and most important of all a joint treaty of guarantee between the three countries should war break out in the Mediterranean. Greece had effectively entered a defensive alliance with France and Britain. It was a great diplomatic success for Venizelos. But it had taken its toll on him. The treaty was signed in April 26th. On April 28th the overworked Venizelos had a stroke as he was preparing for the return journey to Greece. He died the same night despite the best efforts of the French and Greek doctors that rushed to his help...

Chania, Crete, May 9th 1939

The 3rd republic had treated "monsieur Venizelos" with honours more akin to one of its own than a foreign dignitary. The French presidential guard had escorted his body as it was brought to the Greek Orthodox cathedral of St Stephen in Paris where it had been kept for a day, with thousands of people paying their respects and French veterans of the Macedonian front had volunteered themselves as pall bearers. From Gare de Lyon train station the body had been brought to Marseilles where it had been received by Averof to be brought first to Athens and finally to his native Chania, as Venizelos had wanted to be interred at Akrotiri from where he had led the 1896 Cretan revolt against the Ottomans. There things had almost gone out of control, in addition to thousands of officials, diplomats and common people from the rest of Greece and Constantinople that had found a ship to Chania over 100,000 Cretans, nearly a quarter of the whole population of the island, had gathered to mourn their "chief" with his fellow revolutionary veterans literally grabbing the body from the hands of the Averof sailors and the presidential guard euzones to carry it. And thus the era of Venizelos came to its end...

* * *​

"We must all understand well that Eleutherios Venizelos has died and that we have all died with him. Venizelists, Antivenizelists, past, factions, dangers, sufferings and titles of each of us, all suffered a stroke and, if they have not all died, they are dying. Both the one Greece that weeps for her man and the other one that does not curse her persecutor out of propriety, as much as the one lays flowers and the other thorns, before his body, as much as they besiege his dead and as much as they present themselves as refusing to detach from his coffin, deep down they ask for nothing better than to return from the cemetery, to open the windows of their house, and to stand there, free, carefree to breathe. Because Eleftherios Venizelos, no matter how he was characterized by enemies and friends, had always been a heavy handed leader for his own, a terrible danger for others. A man who, from the day he appeared until the day he disappeared, created on his own the history in which all other Greeks, either as opponents or as his fellow soldiers we were called to live in..."

George Vlachos, Kathimerini newspaper (OTL 22/3/1926, ATL 2/5/1939, translation mine)

* * *​

"Greeks were being born and dying Venizelist or anti-Venizelist. They had stopped thinking politically. His followers believed his words as a creed. His opponents, just because they had found themselves in the anti-Venizelist camp felt obliged to oppose every action of Venizelos. Thus the Greek political problem had been solved. Eleutherios Venizelos was thinking on behalf of all Greeks. After his death Greeks had to start thinking politically. Make decisions, study issues, find solutions to the problems..."

George Dafnis, "Hellas between two wars" (OTL 1955, translation mine)
 
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Alas a Great man has passed away..and in some ways he died thinking that maybe he could spare Greece from war and he would no see his people suffer from death, starvation, massacre and all kinds of brutalities..
 
Alas, poor Yorick! Sad and moving moment to see a great man leaving, even in ATL. Great writing as always, and maybe more this time.

So, a mutual defense pact. Then, if Greece doesn't declare war on Germany in September, since France and the UK are technically the ones declaring war, they will have to the day Mussolini attacks France in June 1940, though I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to join in as soon as September.
 
And yet the handful of mostly gendarmerie units that had fought back against the 22,000 Italian invaders had given the Italians significant trouble. As an Italian commentator none too diplomatically put it "if only the Albanians had possessed a well-armed fire-brigade, they could have driven us into the Adriatic". But they did not...

Then, if Greece doesn't declare war on Germany in September, since France and the UK are technically the ones declaring war, they will have to the day Mussolini attacks France in June 1940, though I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to join in as soon as September.
So, can we expect a Greek preemptive counteroffensive against the Italian controlled Albania?
 
Maybe..and judging from the italian comments on the army in Albania and the fact the greek army is under pangalos i expect that the Albanian campaign to be over soon and maybe an attack on rhodes is not out of the question...
 
I really appreciate the OTL quotes on Venizelos' death, kindly translated by the author. For me these quotes signify something important: that Greeks can now move forward beyond Venizelism and Anti-Venizelism, beyond blind adoration and blind hate. With the great statesman, the National Schism can die as well. The country will need its unity in order to fight what is on the horizon and we are readers know that it's coming.

As mentioned above, with this new defensive treaty Greece will enter as an ally if war comes in the Mediterranean. Therefore, I doubt it will be on September 1939. Yet the defensive pact will be useful in setting Greece in war footing from September onwards - even more than in OTL. In the meantime, the 150 million francs could be used to purchase Cash & Carry american products. @Lascaris is KEA license-producing the Twin Wasp? Beyond weapons, there are two other products that will be of much importance in the coming months: trucks and railroad engines/cars.
 
Maybe..and judging from the italian comments on the army in Albania and the fact the greek army is under pangalos i expect that the Albanian campaign to be over soon and maybe an attack on rhodes is not out of the question...
Like in the Guns of Lausanne then, but there is a major difference there: a second, and probably a third, front. The Greek army has also to defend the Thrace border with Bulgaria, which includes Constantinople in my mind, and Asia Minor against Turks.
That means less forces to deal with the Italians in Albania. There is also the question of priorities. The Greco Albanian border is mountainous and can be held with fewer forces than elsewhere. And it has a lot of depth upon which to defend.
Meanwhile Thrace, and with it the land approaches to both Constantinople and Thessaloniki in a long plain right behind the Bulgarian border. Two major cities that are way more important than Epirus I would surmise.
And then there is Asia Minor and Smyrna, one of the largest cities in Greece, and given Turkey precedent for war crimes against civilians and its long history with Greece, it's politically doubtful it would be merely written off beyond the defensive perimeter of Smyrna.

Now, if the Greeks are willing to gamble, Albania is probably the easiest target, the front that can be eliminated the fastest by throwing the Italians back into the sea, which would free up Greek forces to deal with other fronts.
And there is still the unknown of how Yugoslavia will react, since it would have a huge impact on how to deal with Albania and Bulgaria.
 
I'm also leaning on the attack Albania side. The Italians there don't have enough men to mount any defense against the Greeks and stopping the Italians from getting a foothold on the Balkan peninsula is a huge boost defensively.
The Bulgarians have way fewer men than Greece and not enough equipment to pose any threat , also they are completely surrounded by Little Entente members which if handled correctly would stop them from entering this war.
The Turkish front is one that can not be avoided and now without Kemal is more volatile than ever. This will fire anyway sometime so why not now?

RIP Venizelos you had a great run...
 
Like in the Guns of Lausanne then, but there is a major difference there: a second, and probably a third, front. The Greek army has also to defend the Thrace border with Bulgaria, which includes Constantinople in my mind, and Asia Minor against Turks.
That means less forces to deal with the Italians in Albania. There is also the question of priorities. The Greco Albanian border is mountainous and can be held with fewer forces than elsewhere. And it has a lot of depth upon which to defend.
Meanwhile Thrace, and with it the land approaches to both Constantinople and Thessaloniki in a long plain right behind the Bulgarian border. Two major cities that are way more important than Epirus I would surmise.
And then there is Asia Minor and Smyrna, one of the largest cities in Greece, and given Turkey precedent for war crimes against civilians and its long history with Greece, it's politically doubtful it would be merely written off beyond the defensive perimeter of Smyrna.

Now, if the Greeks are willing to gamble, Albania is probably the easiest target, the front that can be eliminated the fastest by throwing the Italians back into the sea, which would free up Greek forces to deal with other fronts.
And there is still the unknown of how Yugoslavia will react, since it would have a huge impact on how to deal with Albania and Bulgaria.
Spot on but i think it is beneficial to eliminate the Albanian front and this time it will be easier than in the scenario in the guns of lausanne because greece already controls North Epirus Which leaves Valona exposed from day 1 and the infrastructure in Epirus is much better than in otl and regarding asia minor i think greece will make a fighting retreat to the Smyrna fortified zone giving time to the civilians to retreat to Smyrna..
 
Would be possible to expect that a side of the already mentioned foreign fronts that could an additional, internal one that could be happening due to, at least hypothetically, possible massive insurrection in Constantinople?
 
A Titan has fallen, RIP Venizelos...
As others have noted, this leads the way for the Greekpeople to think beyond the National Divide between Venizelists and Anti-Venizelists. A government of National Unity with the participation of at least Stratos and some moderate Anti-Venizelists is quite probable (not immediatelly, but after the war erupts).
Concerning a possible Greek attack in Albania, there is no way this would happen now, unless Bennito does something even more monumentally stupid than usual. However,
when Italy enters the war, it is an entirely different story, but is should be done in coordination with the British, the French and the Yugoslavians. After all, the Italians may not have enough men in Albania now, but they will have more men and a little bit better infrastructure in 1940, Plus, the Italian fleet is not something one should take lightly.
@Lascaris What forces did the Italians had in the Dodecanese Islands IOTL in 1940? I wonder if it would be more feasible to launch a coordinated Greek and Allied attack there and thus i) removing a thorn in the Eastern Med and ii) putting some pressure on Turkey.
 
Well well what do my eyes see..anti tank ammo..i guess this ttl Italian tank are not going to useless like in otl..they are going to be excellent target practice the greek army.. practice which is going to be needed when the germans come

To quote... myself
Recently France had turned down Greek requests both for the export and for a licence of their 47mm APX anti-tank gun. An offer had been made to sell instead the Schneider 47mm anti-tank gun, a rival design that had been turned down by the French army and ordered by Romania, but the Greeks had declined both it and an offer by Bofors to sell a licence for their own 37mm AT, on top of the licences for 75mm and 40mm anti-aircraft guns already bought by Greece. A licence for the older M1931 gun had been bought from Belgium instead.
So sure the Greek army should have some AT guns. After all both the Yugoslavs and the Romanians had several hundred in their armies.

Alas, poor Yorick! Sad and moving moment to see a great man leaving, even in ATL. Great writing as always, and maybe more this time.

So, a mutual defense pact. Then, if Greece doesn't declare war on Germany in September, since France and the UK are technically the ones declaring war, they will have to the day Mussolini attacks France in June 1940, though I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to join in as soon as September.
If it is in June 1940, assuming there is a June 1940 similar to OTL, Italy is joining the war because France is frankly going under. This would not be an easy decision for any government...

So, can we expect a Greek preemptive counteroffensive against the Italian controlled Albania?
Technically a Greek offensive in Albania is militarily feasible... maybe as long as Turkey and Bulgaria do not jump in.

Maybe..and judging from the italian comments on the army in Albania and the fact the greek army is under pangalos i expect that the Albanian campaign to be over soon and maybe an attack on rhodes is not out of the question...
I wouldn't be underestimating the Italian army THAT much. The Greek army did not suffer over 60,000 casualties in OTL because the Italians were pushovers. The next ovious question is how the Italians react to a rather stronger Greece and a potentially hostile Yugoslavia? In OTL they had 5 divisions in summer 1940, increased to 8 by the start of the war and 28 by its end. Or put otherwise they shipped 20 divisions over a 5 months period. If they are shipping on average a quarter as many between April 1939 and June 1940 they will have 15 divisions in Albania by then...

I really appreciate the OTL quotes on Venizelos' death, kindly translated by the author. For me these quotes signify something important: that Greeks can now move forward beyond Venizelism and Anti-Venizelism, beyond blind adoration and blind hate. With the great statesman, the National Schism can die as well. The country will need its unity in order to fight what is on the horizon and we are readers know that it's coming.
That is the optimistic view. What is the pessimistic view? To continue from Dafnis...

"And this was creating the deadlock. Few sensed when the fatal message came, the ultimate consequences of the death of Eleutherios Venizelos. Almost noone predicted that 19 years after his death the bourgeois world of Greece would still be split in Venizelists and Antivenizelists. It is not only dictatorships and war periods that inhibit the evolution of the political lives of nations. An extraordinary personality like that of Venizelos, capable of forming the live of nations, acts just as inhibitory. When that personality has not provided for its succession the the vacuum left from her disappearance is turned into an abyss"

As mentioned above, with this new defensive treaty Greece will enter as an ally if war comes in the Mediterranean. Therefore, I doubt it will be on September 1939. Yet the defensive pact will be useful in setting Greece in war footing from September onwards - even more than in OTL. In the meantime, the 150 million francs could be used to purchase Cash & Carry american products. @Lascaris is KEA license-producing the Twin Wasp? Beyond weapons, there are two other products that will be of much importance in the coming months: trucks and railroad engines/cars.
Francs would mostly need to be used for imports from France. KEA is not producing any aircraft engines at the moment, Merlin will be the first engine to be mass produced. I am modelling KEA development mostly after Australia's Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation, after all that too was begun and developed from scratch and will less time to do so than KEA, CAC was established in 1936, while KEA was started as early as 1922-23.

Like in the Guns of Lausanne then, but there is a major difference there: a second, and probably a third, front. The Greek army has also to defend the Thrace border with Bulgaria, which includes Constantinople in my mind, and Asia Minor against Turks.
The Greece of Guns of Lausanne while stronger than the OTL one, is considerably weaker economically and thus militarily. But on the other hand Greece has a border of several hundred km with a hostile Turkey...
That means less forces to deal with the Italians in Albania. There is also the question of priorities. The Greco Albanian border is mountainous and can be held with fewer forces than elsewhere. And it has a lot of depth upon which to defend.
Meanwhile Thrace, and with it the land approaches to both Constantinople and Thessaloniki in a long plain right behind the Bulgarian border. Two major cities that are way more important than Epirus I would surmise.
And then there is Asia Minor and Smyrna, one of the largest cities in Greece, and given Turkey precedent for war crimes against civilians and its long history with Greece, it's politically doubtful it would be merely written off beyond the defensive perimeter of Smyrna.

Now, if the Greeks are willing to gamble, Albania is probably the easiest target, the front that can be eliminated the fastest by throwing the Italians back into the sea, which would free up Greek forces to deal with other fronts.
And there is still the unknown of how Yugoslavia will react, since it would have a huge impact on how to deal with Albania and Bulgaria.
Albania being the weaker target assumes of course that the Italians have kept the OTL level of forces in Albania. Which is not to be taken for granted but should not be discounted altogether either. Italy has 71 divisions. 15 are tied down in Africa. This leaves 56 for every other front the Italians are potentially involved in. As long as France remains in the fight...

I'm also leaning on the attack Albania side. The Italians there don't have enough men to mount any defense against the Greeks and stopping the Italians from getting a foothold on the Balkan peninsula is a huge boost defensively.
The Bulgarians have way fewer men than Greece and not enough equipment to pose any threat , also they are completely surrounded by Little Entente members which if handled correctly would stop them from entering this war.
The Turkish front is one that can not be avoided and now without Kemal is more volatile than ever. This will fire anyway sometime so why not now?
The Bulgarians likely have 300-350,000 men, call it roughly 12-14 divisions, in OTL the Greeks had 5 divisions facing them. The Turkish army was roughly 22 divisions in 1935 rising to 43 in OTL. It is smaller TTL and cannot really concentrate everything against the Greeks, it will also need to cover the Soviet, Syrian and Iraqi borders after all. But it should be able to concentrate at least a dozen divisions against the Greeks probably more. The TTL Greek army of early 1935 has been mentioned to have 18 infantry divisions in 6 corps, the expectation was 6 would had been committed against Bulgaria (and Albania), another 6 against Turkey and 2 corps would be the strategic reserve (near certainly going to Asia Minor once mobilized). So at a minimum if you accept starving the Asia Minor front of forces and likely being pushed back there you can likely throw something around 200,000 men into Albania. Or more, that was the army in 1935, the Greeks have spent the last 4 years strengthening it...

RIP Venizelos you had a great run...
TTL he was lucky enough not to have his work destroyed in 1920. Which means that if he was and still is highly influential in OTL Greece , TTL his influence is going to be... staggering is probably the best word.

Would be possible to expect that a side of the already mentioned foreign fronts that could an additional, internal one that could be happening due to, at least hypothetically, possible massive insurrection in Constantinople?
The Turks certainly have a military organization in Constantinople. So do the Greeks. Neither has significant official forces in Constantinople. Maybe a battalion each (as part of allied forces and the sultan's guard respectively) Then you have the British, French and Italians which have at least a brigade each in Constantinople, possibly more...

A Titan has fallen, RIP Venizelos...
As others have noted, this leads the way for the Greekpeople to think beyond the National Divide between Venizelists and Anti-Venizelists. A government of National Unity with the participation of at least Stratos and some moderate Anti-Venizelists is quite probable (not immediatelly, but after the war erupts).
Ion Dragoumis must also be considered here. Intellectually he was heads and shoulders above anyone else into anti-Venizelist camp and despite despising Venizelos personally not on bad terms with other Venizelists, some of them at least are frequenting the same intellectual circles after all while Dragoumis ideologically is... I won't say all over the place but certainly combined progressive and even socialist ideas with what was proto-fascism. (NOT fascism though and TTL he's in all likehood virulently anti-Mussolini and anti-Hitler, between his nationalism ad being actually if not sympathetic at least on friendly terms with the communists)

Concerning a possible Greek attack in Albania, there is no way this would happen now, unless Bennito does something even more monumentally stupid than usual. However,
when Italy enters the war, it is an entirely different story, but is should be done in coordination with the British, the French and the Yugoslavians. After all, the Italians may not have enough men in Albania now, but they will have more men and a little bit better infrastructure in 1940, Plus, the Italian fleet is not something one should take lightly.
@Lascaris What forces did the Italians had in the Dodecanese Islands IOTL in 1940? I wonder if it would be more feasible to launch a coordinated Greek and Allied attack there and thus i) removing a thorn in the Eastern Med and ii) putting some pressure on Turkey.
50th Infantry division "Regina" plus come 1940 two Blackshirt legions. A dozen battalions overall spread over the islands, with main forces in Rhodes and Kos.
 
This leaves 56 for every other front the Italians are potentially involved in.
In Albania though, how far can they go with only two ports of enough importance to supply their forces, one of which is dangerously close to the Greek border? It's not like they could throw the whole 56 against the Greeks, and if Greek aviation is good enough against the Italians to damage port infrastructures or that the Greeks manage a coup de main against Vlore, that would be even less forces Italians could support, right?
 
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