Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

You're probably right, but in all honesty I've never understood why the Soviets directly annexing the Baltic States was "thinkable", and annexing Finland-which became independent under similar circumstances and at roughly the same time-wasn't.

The Grand Duchy of Finland was highly autonomous, even moreso than the Baltic governates. It was never really directly controlled by Moscow, the honest closest analogy in the Soviet period probably would be a satellite republic. That and Finland is just much larger than any of the Baltic states, a quick google puts the population of Estonia in the 40s at around 1.0 million and the population of Finland at 3.5 million, was a dominion of the Russian Empire for a much shorter period and therefore had a much smaller russified population, and has a much more successful history of violent opposition to Russian Control.

I don't think it's impossible Stalin would try to force Finnish integration, but I think it would cause a pretty severe diplomatic blowback and domestic uproar that he'd probably be smart enough to avoid by establishing a puppet government.
 
The Grand Duchy of Finland was highly autonomous, even moreso than the Baltic governates. It was never really directly controlled by Moscow, the honest closest analogy in the Soviet period probably would be a satellite republic. That and Finland is just much larger than any of the Baltic states, a quick google puts the population of Estonia in the 40s at around 1.0 million and the population of Finland at 3.5 million, was a dominion of the Russian Empire for a much shorter period and therefore had a much smaller russified population, and has a much more successful history of violent opposition to Russian Control.

I don't think it's impossible Stalin would try to force Finnish integration, but I think it would cause a pretty severe diplomatic blowback and domestic uproar that he'd probably be smart enough to avoid by establishing a puppet government.
Especially as Poland was likewise transformed into a People's Democracy instead of being annexed into the USSR as well.
 
I think things for Constantinople would very much be very chaotic, and I think there is a large possibility that at the end the city would be an international city, but with American control its basically greek in all but name.

I think we'd see Bulgaria be the neutral power and Romania be under the sway of the communists, with how the story is going.
I respectfully disagree on both counts. I'd argue that by what we know the major powers among the WAllies would be perfectly comfortable with a Constantinopolitan Enosis. If they had enough power in the city to make an international Constantinople under defacto American control they wouldn't really have a reason to not just let the Greeks annex it (between the author stating that there is likely going to be a fair amount of Turks moving to the Asian as well as Greeks doing the opposite and the Greeks having a significantly stronger hands to get the Armenian community onboard as previously discussed they have the means to win a referendum in the old city IMO, if the Russians aren't too much in the way that is), and obviously, the Russians want to resurrect the international to have power in it.

How the chips will fall remains to be seen, IMO it will come down to a) whether the Russians get enough forces in the city and get their hands on a big enough chunk to get their international city and b) if they do then how much influence in it they will have, which will obviously come down to a). It's either going to be an international city that will be an arena for a genuine struggle or a Greek city.

In Bulgaria, you have the WAllies occupying the capital, and presumably most of the country when all is said and done, as well as a government that seems to prefer the West. All and all the Soviets don't have a ton of cards to play here, and them being in Varna will most likely wound up being more useful for Muraviev than for them, giving him some cards to have his country treated like Italy rather than Hungary. The position of armies wasn't the whole ball game to determine who would fall in who's sphere of influence but in this period it tended to be by far the most important factor... Coincidently, this is also why whether the WAllies get into Romania would be important. Realistically they won't get to Bucharest first or anything like that and the Soviets will be the most influential country in Romania post-war but having them get a foothold could allow something different than in OTL for Romania.
 
I respectfully disagree on both counts. I'd argue that by what we know the major powers among the WAllies would be perfectly comfortable with a Constantinopolitan Enosis. If they had enough power in the city to make an international Constantinople under defacto American control they wouldn't really have a reason to not just let the Greeks annex it (between the author stating that there is likely going to be a fair amount of Turks moving to the Asian as well as Greeks doing the opposite and the Greeks having a significantly stronger hands to get the Armenian community onboard as previously discussed they have the means to win a referendum in the old city IMO, if the Russians aren't too much in the way that is), and obviously, the Russians want to resurrect the international to have power in it.

How the chips will fall remains to be seen, IMO it will come down to a) whether the Russians get enough forces in the city and get their hands on a big enough chunk to get their international city and b) if they do then how much influence in it they will have, which will obviously come down to a). It's either going to be an international city that will be an arena for a genuine struggle or a Greek city.
it really does depend on how much power the soviets have in Constantinople, so it is a bit of a toss-up on how Constantinople would be at the end.

I just don't want it all to be Istanbul lol, but you're correct in that if the City is American-controlled they wouldn't make it international. Except if they want to extract more concessions from the Soviets, and then giving it back to the Greeks in 1950 anyways...
In Bulgaria, you have the WAllies occupying the capital, and presumably most of the country when all is said and done, as well as a government that seems to prefer the West. All and all the Soviets don't have a ton of cards to play here, and them being in Varna will most likely wound up being more useful for Muraviev than for them, giving him some cards to have his country treated like Italy rather than Hungary. The position of armies wasn't the whole ball game to determine who would fall in who's sphere of influence but in this period it tended to be by far the most important factor... Coincidently, this is also why whether the WAllies get into Romania would be important. Realistically they won't get to Bucharest first or anything like that and the Soviets will be the most influential country in Romania post-war but having them get a foothold could allow something different than in OTL for Romania.
Considering Bulgaria doesn't exactly want to be friends/allies with the greeks, and the Soviets are right by the border/controls the north of the country, I do see that there's a possibility that they go neutral.
 
Considering Bulgaria doesn't exactly want to be friends/allies with the greeks, and the Soviets are right by the border/controls the north of the country, I do see that there's a possibility that they go neutral.
Turkey and Greece are both still in NATO despite, well, everything. They don't need to be friends with Greece, really, just with Washington (aka the generous purveyor of money for rebuilding post-war which doesn't try to turn the place into a puppet state) and to a lesser degree London.
 
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Turkey and Greece are both still in NATO despite, well, everything. They don't need to be friends with Greece, really, just with Washington (aka the generous purveyor of money for rebuilding post-war which doesn't try to turn the place into a puppet state) and to a lesser degree London.
It is not possible for turkey to be in NATO as a starting member. They were one of the ppl who started the whole thing in general, and the Soviets will not allow such a thing to happen due to security of black sea shipping, especially since they recently got so much power in the region. Turkey will most likely be a place where the US and the USSR attempt to subvert each other's power for a while.
 
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There is not possible for turkey to be in NATO as a starting member. They were one of the ppl who started the whole thing in general, and the Soviets will not allow such a thing to happen due to security of black sea shipping, especially since they recently got so much power in the region. Turkey will most likely be a place where the US and the USSR attempt to subvert each other's power for a while.
I meant in OTL, as a point of comparaison.
 
not to mention Greece being one of the main allies of the Americans in the Med.

There are plenty of potentially large hurtles to Turkey joining NATO, not least of which is going to be how the Turkish population themselves feel in the aftermath of the war. That said I’m not sure Greece will be one of them. An allied, if not necessarily friendly, Turkey would provide a lot of positives to Greece in the event the Cold War turns hot. A large physical buffer, a secondary front, a second navy already in the Black Sea to assist them. Even in peace time, a resolution to the international city problem becomes significantly easier if the Greeks and Turks could agree to divide the city between themselves at the straits. Something that Turkey might adamantly oppose if she’s neutral.

Now that Greece has the majority of what she’s ever likely to want from Turkey (and Bulgaria), good relations with her former enemies is likely to be a large part of her foreign policy. Getting one or both into NATO would be a big win for her.
 
But this isn't otl at all. Turkey has a lot less leverage by being on the axis' side in WWII, not to mention Greece being one of the main allies of the Americans in the Med.
I think what @phil03 means is that if Turkey and Greece are "allies" OTL within the NATO system, despite all the differences between them, then Bulgaria and Greece can also be "allies" within TTL's NATO, despite any differences between them. As long as Sofia is friendly to Washington and London and Greece is compensated with some territory in the Arda valley.
 
Part 156
Pristina, August 22nd, 1944

The city was liberated by the 31st Kosovska Infantry Division. Or least that was what the Serb civilians left behind after four years of occupation would have said. For the Albanian majority things were less clear cut. Nowhere in occupied Yugoslavia was a good place to be since the start of the war, and Kosovo had been no exception, all the more so if you belonged in the Serb minority that had found itself out of power for the first time in a generation. Thousands had been killed and nearly 100,000 had been forced to flee or deported to concentration camps. In their place the Italian and German occupiers had brought over 70,000 settlers from Albania proper. Now with the Yugoslav army marching into Kosovo from the south and the resistance joining them after years of fighting and reprisals it was the turn of the Albanian population to fear. Thousands were fleeing into Albania or following the retreating Germans. Yet more thousands loyal to Balli Kombetar were fleeing into the mountains, determined to fight on against the returned Serb army and its allies, Ballist guerrilas in Kosovo and Tetovo would number nearly 15,000 over the next few months. Meanwhile the Germans kept retreating north. Mitrovice would be liberated on August 27th.

Montpelier, August 23rd, 1944

The city was liberated by the Spanish 7th infantry division. With the Germans trying to evacuate the South of France the Spanish were meeting very little resistance so far. Three days later their advance elements would link up with the French 10e Division Infanterie Coloniale advancing from the east.

Berlin, August 24th, 1944


Arvid Richert, the Swedish ambassador to Germany since 1937, delivered to the German foreign ministry, Sweden's formal declaration of war against Germany. An hour later Swedish artillery would open up across the Norwegian border as a quarter million soldiers with 370 tanks launched a three pronged attack into Norway with 6 infantry divisions and 2 armored brigades driving at Oslo, the II Swedish Infantry Division attacking towards Trodtheim and the XV Infantry Division attacking towords Mo-i-Rana. The German army had on paper 4 infantry divisions under LXX Korps in Oslo, 3 more with XXXIII around Trodtheim and another 3 with LXXI to the north of Noway. But while the Germans had on paper 308,000 men in Norway. But of these 143,000 belonged to coastal artillery, Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine and police, actual frontline strength did not exceed 102,000 with 131 tanks a third of them old French H39s...

Aland archipelago, August 24th, 1944

The Swedish navy had been already removing the Finnish minifields under the pretext of exercises. Now its minesweepers openly opened a path through the minefields to make a landing possible. The next day a Swedish infantry brigade would begin landing after the cover of the armored cruiser Fylgia and 6 destroyers.

Italy, August 24th, 1944


The British 8th army liberated Ravenna. The Allied advance in Italy was continuing but as long as the US 5th army remained stuck to the south of Bologna it remained very slow. The removal of the four divisions French expeditionary corps back in July and of three American divisions in late August to reinforce the armies in France was certainly not helping much.

Off Gotland, August 25th, 1944


The Kriegsmarine hadn't been taken entirely by surprise by the Swedish declaration of war sortieing the panzerschiffs Admiral Scheer and Admiral Graf Spee escorted by 8 destroyers to attack the Swedish coast. They would be intercepted between Gotland and the Swedish mainland by the Swedish coastal battleships Sverige, Drottning Victoria and Gustaf V escorted by a dozen destroyers and the light cruiser Gotland. With the two fleets about equal in strength, the two heavy German ships equaled the Swedish in firepower but while much faster were rather worse protected the battle would prove tactically inconclusive with 2 German and 3 Swedish destroyers sunk before the Germans retired south. Both sides post-war histories would claim it as a victory.

Paris, August 25th, 1944


The German garrison surrendered to general Leclerc's 2e Division Blindee. The next day despite the presence of German snipers Charles De Gaulle would lead the parade for the liberation of the city in person before relighting the eternal flame in the Arc de Triomphe.

Warsaw, August 26th, 1944


Another airdrop from British, Greek, French and Polish air force aircraft brought another trickle of supplies to the Polish fighters. Use the Bulgarian airfields of Sophia and that of Skopje made the missions somewhat easier but as long as the Soviets refused use of their own airfields, which Stalin had done on the 22nd, the supply missions were necessarily limited in the amounts of supplies they could bring to the rebels. The USAAF was notably absent. Just this day Roosevelt had written to Churchill that he did not consider it to the advantge of the war effort to join the British in supplying Warsaw.

Romania, August 27th, 1944


Focsani was captured by the Soviet 6th tank army. With the Romanian army having ceased to fight the Soviets advanced all along the front. That the Romanians had stopped fighting and were actually fighting the Germans themselves did not stop the Soviets from taking thousands of Romanian soldiers prisoners. A formal armistice between Romania and the Allies would not be signed before September 7th.

South France, August 29th, 1944


Two days earlier the French army had liberated Toulon. Now it was the turn of Marseilles to be liberated and importantly with her port mostly intact.

Slovakia, August 29th, 1944


The Slovaks rose up in revolt following occupation of the country by German troops in the aftermath of the defection of Romania.

Helsinki, August 29th, 1944


Civilians watched sullenly at the Soviet tank columns marching through their capital. The Finnish army had fought to the limits of human endurance inflicting nearly 185,000 casualties on the Soviets. But Triandafillov's men had still pressed on. With the Soviets at the gates of Helsinki and no hope of outside support the country had been forced to accept the Soviet demands of unconditionally surrender. What this would mean for Finns remained to be seen. But tens of thousands of Finns soldiers and civilians alike were fleeing to Sweden already...
 
Italy, August 24th, 1944

The British 8th army liberated Ravenna. The Allied advance in Italy was continuing but as long as the US 5th army remained stuck to the south of Bologna it remained very slow. The removal of the four divisions French expeditionary corps back in July and of three American divisions in late August to reinforce the armies in France was certainly not helping much.
3 1/2 months earlier than IOTL, not bad at all.
Warsaw, August 26th, 1944

Another airdrop from British, Greek, French and Polish air force aircraft brought another trickle of supplies to the Polish fighters. Use the Bulgarian airfields of Sophia and that of Skopje made the missions somewhat easier but as long as the Soviets refused use of their own airfields, which Stalin had done on the 22nd, the supply missions were necessarily limited in the amounts of supplies they could bring to the rebels. The USAAF was notably absent. Just this day Roosevelt had written to Churchill that he did not consider it to the advantge of the war effort to join the British in supplying Warsaw.
The naivity of the Americans towards the Soviets was mind-blowing... :mad:
Helsinki, August 29th, 1944

Civilians watched sullenly at the Soviet tank columns marching through their capital. The Finnish army had fought to the limits of human endurance inflicting nearly 185,000 casualties on the Soviets. But Triandafillov's men had still pressed on. With the Soviets at the gates of Helsinki and no hope of outside support the country had been forced to accept the Soviet demands of unconditionally surrender. What this would mean for Finns remained to be seen. But tens of thousands of Finns soldiers and civilians alike were fleeing to Sweden already...
We can forget Finland being a neutral country ITTLs' Cold War. Lets hope it doesn't get annexed to Soviet Union proper...
 
We can forget Finland being a neutral country ITTLs' Cold War. Lets hope it doesn't get annexed to Soviet Union proper...
Lascaris IIRC more or less confirmed a while back with his comments that Finnish annexation into the USSR is not really on the cards that Finland's fate is to become a "People's Democracy" ITTL.
 
Outside of what others have already said, I think ITTL Sweden is likely to be a NATO member. Their neutralism has already been abandoned and with a puppet Finland at their border they will feel threatened too...

I could also see Finland being significantly more trouble to manage then any of their OTL puppets: it has a large border with Western-aligned states, a very lenghty coastline, a bunch of remote areas and a tradition of anti-Russian politics. Those are pretty good conditions to potentially get a guerilla going...

I also think that the butterflies in Poland might wound up being by far the most important development of this attitude. Not that the Home Army has any chance of avoiding its OTL fate, unfortunately, but because every single day the Red Army stay put to allow the Germans to slaughter them would increase the diplomatic cost for the USSR of doing so, potentially getting the Americans to be significantly more inclined to force their way further east then OTL to liberate places before the Russians...

And last but not least, the wheels do seem to be coming out of the German forces in France even faster then OTL...
 
Outside of what others have already said, I think ITTL Sweden is likely to be a NATO member. Their neutralism has already been abandoned and with a puppet Finland at their border they will feel threatened too...

I could also see Finland being significantly more trouble to manage then any of their OTL puppets: it has a large border with Western-aligned states, a very lenghty coastline, a bunch of remote areas and a tradition of anti-Russian politics. Those are pretty good conditions to potentially get a guerilla going...

I also think that the butterflies in Poland might wound up being by far the most important development of this attitude. Not that the Home Army has any chance of avoiding its OTL fate, unfortunately, but because every single day the Red Army stay put to allow the Germans to slaughter them would increase the diplomatic cost for the USSR of doing so, potentially getting the Americans to be significantly more inclined to force their way further east then OTL to liberate places before the Russians...

And last but not least, the wheels do seem to be coming out of the German forces in France even faster then OTL...

If Sweden is in NATO I could see the whole Baltic being the home of a ton of smuggling. While Finland would be the easiest and most common destination, I could see the Baltic states also being a destination. I definitely think there would be a Finnish uprising as some point. If they launch theirs during the Hungarian uprising there could be some major side effects.
 
I really love this chapter. The movements of the war ittl is already quite different than otl, with Sweden joining NATO and Finland being forced into the Warsaw pact, and Ravenna being taken way earlier than otl, I do think the WAllies do have a higher chance of doing much better than otl. If Sweden takes Norway from Germany I think they would either launch amphibious operations in Denmark (more likely) or Pomerania, which will liberate the Nordic nations from German occupation, and it probably means all three Nordic countries would be in NATO and ostensibly not neutral. Meanwhile, Finland is part of the Warsaw pact (probably unwillingly), and probably lose Viipuri to the Russians, much to their chagrin. I see the Nordic nations being a lot more active politically ittl, since Russia would be trying to push through the Baltic by threatening the strait of Denmark and the such, and there could be interesting divergences too.

For example, if the Nordic front is finished by January 1945, is there a possibility that the Swedes put armies in Pomerania? We know the Germans were already going to be worse off as the WAllies are at Ravenna, and if Spain joins in to liberate Southern France the Germans would be stretched so thin I think they would not be able to fortify a mostly Swedish-led amphibious operation supported by the British. It would be an interesting difference from otl too.
 
I see the Nordic nations being a lot more active politically ittl, since Russia would be trying to push through the Baltic by threatening the strait of Denmark and the such, and there could be interesting divergences too.

Norway and Denmark were founding members of NATO OTL. So the situation of the Russians being trapped in the Baltic is more or less OTL, it’s just significantly more tilted in NATO’s favor if Sweden ends up joining. Which seems likely with the way things are developing. Honestly the opposite might happen with the Soviets deciding to more or less cede the Baltic to NATO and focus on playing defense in the naval theater.

Meanwhile, Finland is part of the Warsaw pact (probably unwillingly), and probably lose Viipuri to the Russians, much to their chagrin.

I think Stalins paranoia saves Finland from losing much if anything. The more upset the Finn’s are, the more difficult keeping the puppet regime stable becomes. Sure the Soviets can March back in and crush it but that just perpetuates the problem. Worse it might invite capitalist interference. So I see the Soviets trying to minimize the potential speed bumps that might pop up with a generous-ish peace deal. The Soviets might just take everything though and deal with a very unhappy Finnish population.

For example, if the Nordic front is finished by January 1945, is there a possibility that the Swedes put armies in Pomerania?

I can’t see the Swedes doing this. Maybe they try to help in Denmark if they steamroll through Norway. But we have to remember that the Swedes aren’t going to be particularly enthusiastic in their participation. Plus the Kriegsmarine is still strong enough to protect Germany in the Baltic. So I really have a hard time seeing them pulling off an unassisted naval landing in Pomerania.

Plus they’re going to do the bare minimum they think they could reasonably get away with, the possible exception would have been trying to grab some of northern Finland while they could have. But they’ve already capitulated so that seems unlikely.
 
Norway and Denmark were founding members of NATO OTL. So the situation of the Russians being trapped in the Baltic is more or less OTL, it’s just significantly more tilted in NATO’s favor if Sweden ends up joining. Which seems likely with the way things are developing. Honestly the opposite might happen with the Soviets deciding to more or less cede the Baltic to NATO and focus on playing defense in the naval theater.
Eh considering the Soviets I don't see them playing too nice with the Swedes even if they're in NATO, especially since they conquered Aland. They would have an island dispute that would likely stretch throughout the entirety of the Cold War, especially since Finland would be in the middle, and Sweden and the USSR prob have opposing Finnish Govs.
I think Stalins paranoia saves Finland from losing much if anything. The more upset the Finn’s are, the more difficult keeping the puppet regime stable becomes. Sure the Soviets can March back in and crush it but that just perpetuates the problem. Worse it might invite capitalist interference. So I see the Soviets trying to minimize the potential speed bumps that might pop up with a generous-ish peace deal. The Soviets might just take everything though and deal with a very unhappy Finnish population.
I do think there still would be a lot of people who want viipuri be taken into Russian rule though, and with Finland being the one who lost I don't see the USSR moving the border to otl's one instead.
I can’t see the Swedes doing this. Maybe they try to help in Denmark if they steamroll through Norway. But we have to remember that the Swedes aren’t going to be particularly enthusiastic in their participation. Plus the Kriegsmarine is still strong enough to protect Germany in the Baltic. So I really have a hard time seeing them pulling off an unassisted naval landing in Pomerania.

Plus they’re going to do the bare minimum they think they could reasonably get away with, the possible exception would have been trying to grab some of northern Finland while they could have. But they’ve already capitulated so that seems unlikely.
I see they trying to help Denmark, and opening the ports to WAllies ships, which would allow Britain to do an amphibious landing on Pomerania if they wanted to, and I'd think the kriegsmarine would be no match to the British or American navy in general.
 
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