Tbf one thing I would like to see is France allowing a democratic vote for Syria to choose between France, Syria, the Alawite state, Lebanon and Kurdistan before they leave, it'd give the French a lot more ammo to come back since they know Damascus and the Sunni Arabs want to create an Arabian superstate, and while Lebanon sheds some lands the alawites would also have a fair shake at nation building which the French would back the alawites and Lebanese a lot more easily than otl.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
If they were going to do that it only feels right to let the Druze state be an option as well. They probably go with Syria but it feels fair to offer it at least.
Would it essentially be a reduced Lebanon with the Litani and Orontes Rivers acting as a partial border or would it be smaller?
The truly cursed outcome would be a Levantine Federation of Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Alawite Phoenicia, and a Druze state
Yeah a druze option would definitely be plausible too, Feb though I'd think that the Arabs would probably take over even if a Druze republic is declared.
Yeah I think it's a possibility, and you just need the Muslims to be a majority for the Marionites to rule. I do think throwing in the Alawites would be good tho since it kinda makes it easier to control the minorities in their countries.
So basically the alawites, Israelis and Marionites Vs the Muslims? (I don't think the druze would be a big enough group unless they got genocided or Israel conquers Jordan).The truly cursed outcome would be a Levantine Federation of Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Alawite Phoenicia, and a Druze state
It really would be cursed, but hey at least the Palestinians won't be as shafted since they could become alawites or druze.
In OTL Israel did have a policy of support to nationalist movements among non-Sunni or Shia Arabs minorities in the region so while the Levantine federation might be pushing a bit it would definitely not be out of character compared to OTL for Tel-Aviv to try to create an alliance bloc made of all the states fitting that description between Turkey to the North and the Indian Ocean to the south and from Suez to the West and the Tigris to the East.The truly cursed outcome would be a Levantine Federation of Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Alawite Phoenicia, and a Druze state
yeah an alliance bloc between the three states would play into each other's strengths quite well and would make Israel have a lot more friends in the ME, and i'd think the American led bloc would be glad to have local allies in the region other than Assyria and Iran too I'd think.
I think the alliance bloc would also include Iran and Assyria as they would be western aligned and help with what the west wants to do in the region (its more that idk what'll happen to the Kurds, I see them going both ways).
To kind of piggy back off of this, I’m very curious what the definition of “Europe” is going to be in this world for things like the EU and NATO. Because I could see this Levantine alliance ending up included. The Alawites probably have the toughest case to make, but an Israel without the Palestine issue hanging over them and a very Christian French backed Lebanon can make decent cases. The Alawites probably have a better chance at NATO than the EU but I could see them being included if the Levant is considered as being a cultural part of “Europe”. Kind of like how all three of the nations of the Southern Caucuses are considered potentially spots for expansion for those organizations despite only Georgia and Armenia really having a basis for such a claim.
If we get the Levantine states under the EU I'd think the EU would be seen as colonial by it's detractors, and it'd also try to add Georgia and Armenia into the bloc in the 2000s. I'd think it would make Russia think twice if they wanted to intervene in Georgia.
I also think the Alawites would be allies with Albania in the EU and forming a 'Muslim bloc' in the EU parliament which would be interesting.
I can see the colonial argument working for Israel, but not so much for the other two. The colonial argument loses a lot of its teeth when the people being “colonized” are happy with the results and voted for it.
eh considering how there'll always be detractors so its not really that surprising, but considering that the Alawites and Lebanese would have Arab minorities that don't like the ruling gov too I think it'd be a lot more contentious than you think.
Although I think it'd be more communists who think that or tankies.
I meant it as the 'other arabs who don't see themselves as Alawites/Lebanese', which I think the two governments will definitely make a distinction in their laws for obvious reasons.
its more that the alawites/lebanese don't see 'arabic' as the label they primarily identify themselves with.
The Lebanese most certainly indentify as Arabs. Alewites in Syria as well. Indeed among their ranks came pan arabist thinkers.
ik, but if they're building nations opposed against Pan-Arabist they'd have to think of themselves as somewhat different, or rather see 'Alawite/Lebanese' as a more important cultural signifier than 'Arab'.
Think of it like them thinking that their 'Texan' identity is more important than the broader 'American' identity. I'm not saying that they're not American, its just that they don't see themselves as American, they're Texan first and foremost.
Let me note Cyprus is not Greek... yet at least.
A federal state means including the majority Sunni northern Lebanon.
What Baathists? If the Hashemites have expanded to Damascus Baath is likely the opposition.
If the Arab Legion is attacking the Alawite state then it is doing so with tacit British support. The French may well not care. Why the Greeks wouldn't care and antagonize Britain?
De Gaulle was a protege of Mandel pre-war. Why exactly Mandel would turn against De Gaulle here? Particularly when le grand Charles was even more successful than OTL in saving the honor of France?
The Druze state became part of Syria back in 1936 though...
It's not out of character as long as allies ae to be found...
Way less than an American soldier. WW1 Greek costs per soldier, which is a different thing than what the soldier got in his pocket, averaged about $50 a month apparently. WW2 ones are likely 2-3 times higher I'd expect.
Quite so. Would be making for an interesting balance even in a notional small Lebanon.
Well with Turkey so battered if they try anything funny the Brits will be a lot more amenable to Greek demands, especially as the Turks in the island have already done a bunch of subversive activities during the war. Not that a few ppl would've enjoyed doing more things for the Turkish Cypriots.
I really do think Enosis with Cyprus would be a potential flashpoint for Turkey and Greece.
that's true unfortunately...
I'd assume that Britain won't be allowing that considering that France is an important ally and doing so would be only under the auspices of Abdullah so Britain would at least be uncomfortable with the moves Abdullah is taking. Also I'm thinking of it being the action of the Syrian nationalists not Abdullah.
I really hope the Alawites take Alexandretta it has an Alawite majority.
tbf if we get a smaller Lebanon and an Alawite state I really do think Israel would be liked a lot more in the ME, especially if the three states work with each other with the US.
I'd think there'd be a pull between pro and anti pan-arabic, with the anti pan-arabic being the ones the Americans help with both good and bad effects on the political parties who're anti pan-arabic
Part 150
East Macedonia, July 20th, 1944
Serres were liberated by the Greek D Corps.
Guam, July 21st, 1944
US marines begun landing on the island. Three days later the Americans would follow up the landings with a landing in Tinian island, the last major insland in the Marianas still held by the Japanese.
Italy, July 23th, 1944
The French expeditionary corps was pulled out of the line. Three weeks of fighting to break the German "Gothic Line" had cost the French over three thousand casualties. The German defenses had been dented but were still holding out. But the Allied forces in Italy would have to continue the fighting without the French who would be needed for operations elsewhere...
Lwow, July 23rd, 1944
The local Armia Krajova units rose up against the German garrison as Soviet forces approached the city. The Poles and Soviets would crush the German resistance but following victory the NKVD would arrest the Polish leadership and 5,000 Polish fighters and ship them off to gulags with the remainder forcibly inducted in the LWP of general Berling. The Soviet advance continued with Lublin taken the next day.
Narva, July 24th, 1944
German forces had held back the Soviets since early February after managing to check the Soviet advance following the lifting of the siege of Leningrad. Now the Soviets resumed their attack forcing the Germans to retreat to their Tannenberg defense line by July 26th.
Normandy, July 25th, 1944
Eleven US divisions attacked breaking German defenses withing three days. Erwin Rommel, in command of the German Army Group B would respond launching counterattacks with elements of four panzer and one panzergrenadier divisions but this would expose the German armor to the Allies ow armor and crushing Allied air superiority, decimating it. Within a week the Allies would be effecting their breakout from their Normandy beachheads.
Karelia, July 25th, 1944
"The comrade general secretary sends his congratilations. Now to business. The Finns are sending feelers for an armistice so the vohzd needs to know. If ordered to do so can you take Helsinki?"
Vladimir Triandafillov looked carefully at Vyacheslav Molotov. Hours later the remnants of Finnish forces to the east of Lake Ladoga had been forced to surrender. Stalin had sent over Molotov to congratulate him but apparently also to have a first hand look at the situation on the front.
"The Finns are digging in what they call the Salpa line and are apparently receiving new supplies from the Germans. But assuming my forces are not reduced then yes. But it will be costly."
Molotov ignored the part about the casualties, Stalin wouldn't care and neither did he. "How long will it take you?"
"About two weeks to shift forces west. Two to four weeks, post that to reach Helsinki."
"So four to six weeks overall? Proceed then. And make it closer to four weeks if at all possible."
Italy, July 26th, 1944
Rimini was liberated by the British 8th Army. But the Allied offensive in Italy would continue to gain ground only at a snails pace in the eastern sector with the Americans further west failing to make any significant gains.
Albania, July 26th, 1944
Durres was liberated by the Greek IV infantry division. Within hours engineers were at work clearing out the port to bring it back to operation. The Greeks by now were nearly 200 away from their closest railhead. Albanian ports were becoming increasing important to remain in supply and continue their advance northwards.
Poland, July 28th, 1944
Brest Litovsk was taken by the Soviet army. By the 29th, advance Soviet elements would be reaching the outskirts of Warsaw. The Polish government under general Sikorski had already accepted the advice of the AK leadership inside Poland that the need for a Polish uprising was becoming imminent, particularly given the actions of the Soviets in the parts of Poland they had liberated from the Germans. Soviet tanks at the gates of Warsaw would make things even more urgent...
Prilep, July 29th, 1944
Men from the 1re DFL and the 31st Kosovska division warily entered the town. The German 1 Gebirgs Division had stubbornly defended Prilep for nearly a month. But the Serbs and French had kept pressing on just as stubbornly till Prilep, strategically important as it opened the route to Veles and Skopje had been liberated.
Strumica, July 30th, 1944
The Bulgarian army was pushed out from the town by the Greeks. Further to the east the Greek E Corps had liberated Rupel the previous day and had now crossed the Bulgarian border and pushing north. The Bulgarian and German parts of the front were now effectively split in two, making shifting reinforcements from one to the other difficult...
Sofia, July 31st, 1944
Dobri Bozhilov had served as prime minister of Bulgaria ever since Bogdan Filov had become one of the three regents of Bulgaria after the assassination of king Boris by the Greek resistance at Thessaloniki. Both Bozhilov and Filov had been strongly pro-German, and under them Bulgaria had loyally stuck by the side of Germany despite increasing casualties on the frontlines and the costant bombing of Bulgaria by the Allied air forces.. Bulgaria had been allowed in exchange to annex vast swaths of Greek and Yugoslav territory. Even after Allied armies have liberated Thesaloniki and most of Greek Macedonia in late 1943 and then knocked Turkey out of the war in early 1944 Filov and Bozhilov had remained reliably pro-German and the Germans had done what they could to salve their popularity, allowing Bulgaria to annex Constantinople after the Turkish armistice.
But even Bozhilov and Filov had now to recognize the war was lost. With Strumica and Prilep fallen and German and Bulgarian casualties mounting the Balkan front was likely unsalvageable. Bozhilov resigned being replaced by Ivan Bagryanov, who was considered pro-western in hopes the new prime minister would be able to secure peace with the Allies while the Bulgarian army still was on the field and outside Bulgaria's 1939 borders. Of course securing any short of negotiated peace was easier said than done, particularly when many people at Sofia still had hopes of holding at least onto some of the land they thought off as liberated back in 1941...
Serres were liberated by the Greek D Corps.
Guam, July 21st, 1944
US marines begun landing on the island. Three days later the Americans would follow up the landings with a landing in Tinian island, the last major insland in the Marianas still held by the Japanese.
Italy, July 23th, 1944
The French expeditionary corps was pulled out of the line. Three weeks of fighting to break the German "Gothic Line" had cost the French over three thousand casualties. The German defenses had been dented but were still holding out. But the Allied forces in Italy would have to continue the fighting without the French who would be needed for operations elsewhere...
Lwow, July 23rd, 1944
The local Armia Krajova units rose up against the German garrison as Soviet forces approached the city. The Poles and Soviets would crush the German resistance but following victory the NKVD would arrest the Polish leadership and 5,000 Polish fighters and ship them off to gulags with the remainder forcibly inducted in the LWP of general Berling. The Soviet advance continued with Lublin taken the next day.
Narva, July 24th, 1944
German forces had held back the Soviets since early February after managing to check the Soviet advance following the lifting of the siege of Leningrad. Now the Soviets resumed their attack forcing the Germans to retreat to their Tannenberg defense line by July 26th.
Normandy, July 25th, 1944
Eleven US divisions attacked breaking German defenses withing three days. Erwin Rommel, in command of the German Army Group B would respond launching counterattacks with elements of four panzer and one panzergrenadier divisions but this would expose the German armor to the Allies ow armor and crushing Allied air superiority, decimating it. Within a week the Allies would be effecting their breakout from their Normandy beachheads.
Karelia, July 25th, 1944
"The comrade general secretary sends his congratilations. Now to business. The Finns are sending feelers for an armistice so the vohzd needs to know. If ordered to do so can you take Helsinki?"
Vladimir Triandafillov looked carefully at Vyacheslav Molotov. Hours later the remnants of Finnish forces to the east of Lake Ladoga had been forced to surrender. Stalin had sent over Molotov to congratulate him but apparently also to have a first hand look at the situation on the front.
"The Finns are digging in what they call the Salpa line and are apparently receiving new supplies from the Germans. But assuming my forces are not reduced then yes. But it will be costly."
Molotov ignored the part about the casualties, Stalin wouldn't care and neither did he. "How long will it take you?"
"About two weeks to shift forces west. Two to four weeks, post that to reach Helsinki."
"So four to six weeks overall? Proceed then. And make it closer to four weeks if at all possible."
Italy, July 26th, 1944
Rimini was liberated by the British 8th Army. But the Allied offensive in Italy would continue to gain ground only at a snails pace in the eastern sector with the Americans further west failing to make any significant gains.
Albania, July 26th, 1944
Durres was liberated by the Greek IV infantry division. Within hours engineers were at work clearing out the port to bring it back to operation. The Greeks by now were nearly 200 away from their closest railhead. Albanian ports were becoming increasing important to remain in supply and continue their advance northwards.
Poland, July 28th, 1944
Brest Litovsk was taken by the Soviet army. By the 29th, advance Soviet elements would be reaching the outskirts of Warsaw. The Polish government under general Sikorski had already accepted the advice of the AK leadership inside Poland that the need for a Polish uprising was becoming imminent, particularly given the actions of the Soviets in the parts of Poland they had liberated from the Germans. Soviet tanks at the gates of Warsaw would make things even more urgent...
Prilep, July 29th, 1944
Men from the 1re DFL and the 31st Kosovska division warily entered the town. The German 1 Gebirgs Division had stubbornly defended Prilep for nearly a month. But the Serbs and French had kept pressing on just as stubbornly till Prilep, strategically important as it opened the route to Veles and Skopje had been liberated.
Strumica, July 30th, 1944
The Bulgarian army was pushed out from the town by the Greeks. Further to the east the Greek E Corps had liberated Rupel the previous day and had now crossed the Bulgarian border and pushing north. The Bulgarian and German parts of the front were now effectively split in two, making shifting reinforcements from one to the other difficult...
Sofia, July 31st, 1944
Dobri Bozhilov had served as prime minister of Bulgaria ever since Bogdan Filov had become one of the three regents of Bulgaria after the assassination of king Boris by the Greek resistance at Thessaloniki. Both Bozhilov and Filov had been strongly pro-German, and under them Bulgaria had loyally stuck by the side of Germany despite increasing casualties on the frontlines and the costant bombing of Bulgaria by the Allied air forces.. Bulgaria had been allowed in exchange to annex vast swaths of Greek and Yugoslav territory. Even after Allied armies have liberated Thesaloniki and most of Greek Macedonia in late 1943 and then knocked Turkey out of the war in early 1944 Filov and Bozhilov had remained reliably pro-German and the Germans had done what they could to salve their popularity, allowing Bulgaria to annex Constantinople after the Turkish armistice.
But even Bozhilov and Filov had now to recognize the war was lost. With Strumica and Prilep fallen and German and Bulgarian casualties mounting the Balkan front was likely unsalvageable. Bozhilov resigned being replaced by Ivan Bagryanov, who was considered pro-western in hopes the new prime minister would be able to secure peace with the Allies while the Bulgarian army still was on the field and outside Bulgaria's 1939 borders. Of course securing any short of negotiated peace was easier said than done, particularly when many people at Sofia still had hopes of holding at least onto some of the land they thought off as liberated back in 1941...