One thing to note is that Pontic Muslims had and have a much better relationship with Pontic Christians which is why certain Turkish political forces still see them with suspicion.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
This is my fear in general for any Greek speaking Muslims in Turkey when this is over. People like to have an other to blame when they lose a war. Particularly if that other is in anyway related to their enemy in said war. Anyone who could be considered as fraternizing with the enemy is going to be viewed with suspicion at best, and as an outright traitor at worst. So I could see Greek Muslim speakers in the Aegean being stuck between a rock and a hard place. Plus picking up sticks and moving for the second time in ~30 years isn’t gonna be super attractive to the recent arrivals no matter how much they might not want to be in Greece. So I feel like more people than you think might stick around. Especially anyone who didn’t really want to participate in population exchange in the 20’s.
Im pretty sure Soviets already kicked their Greeks out of Crimea ITTL, so I could see them doing the same to any Greek Muslims that are in their territory, wherever the border ends up being. It’s not a religious issue for them but a cultural one.
By the ostensibly atheist Soviets? We’ve discussed before how they’re likely to just view the Laz as they would Georgians. Why would that change for Greek speakers who they see as untrustworthy.
It might be less cut an dry for Turkey but I can’t see anyone who speaks Greek being warmly welcomed regardless of their religion.
Serpent
Banned
If Greece cannot get Cannakkale, then it should definitely push for Sokia/Soke (includes Kusadasi, Didim), Halikarnassos/Bodrum +Milas/Miletos and the Rest of Mugla province.
The Usak plateau (Buldan-Esme- Usak-Banaz) area is really indifferent other than it's strategic purposes, (and I'm not sure if it's a curse rather than a benefit, yes there might be some pretty good heights to possess, but won't Greece overextend itself into the central Anatolian plateau, virtually be surrounded by everywhere (260+ degrees), it is also a territory without much economic significance, in the depths of Anatolia and most importantly without even a single Greek person.
Now, even if one goes into such an effort as to relocate Greek people there into significant numbers as to ensure the loyalty of the territory without the need to keep a massive army force there to keep the local rebelious Turks in line, would it really justify the massive costs and future subsidies to make this barren place competitive for Greeks to settle and live there?
Because any Greek settler would need a significantly better living standards to choose to relocate to such a backwater on the depths of Anatolia and be surrounded almost exclusively by Turks only as his neighbors in his new home, at least for the first few years until the relocation project achieves a tangible result.
Also I'm not entirely sure about the soil in and around Usak, but isn't it dry?
LIke really dry, like a steppe/savanna, so I'm not sure that agriculture can be an important economic activity in the area, so you can forget about relocating Greek farmers there, (unless they wanna grow levander or smth)...
So, to visualize some of the argument going back and forth over borders, I have decided to create yet another map! Showing what I see as the most reasonable areas of expansion for Greece.
In dark blue, are areas that I think are the likeliest areas for Greece to expand.
The Dodecanese and Rhodes are almost a given at this point, considering the demographics there and the fact that Greek troops have been on the ground there since just about the start of the war. Of everything on the table it's the 'easiest' to give to Greece considering they already kinda have it except on paper.
The Dardanelles/Canakkale Area, as part of the old League Mandate, it was exempted from the population exchange, and by Lascaris's numbers has the largest numbers of Greeks, at least before the war, in areas of potential expansion. Leaving the most strategically important areas to a new UN territory, it would minimize the risk of having an enclave in the back of Asiatic Greece. Leaving areas for International bases. I could also see some sort of agreement for nominal Greek administrative and political control over the region, in exchange for demilitarization and nominal international military control over the region+Gallipoli.
The former Italian Mandate of Caria, also exempted from the population exchange on paper. There are still Greeks there, or were before the war, most seem to have fled before the Italians handed it over, but that was not terribly long ago, I wouldn't be surprised if a more than a few might be willing to go back. Politically this region is probably the least... headache inducing to give to Greece off of Turkey itself for the western allies. It's far from the straights so the Soviets can't really complain, compared to anywhere else it's relatively sparsely populated and has a good number of hills/mountains/rough terrain to work with and has/had a local population to serve as a bit of a fig-leaf.
In lighter blue are areas that I think are the most flexible, and most-likely to be considered in terms of 'defensive annexations' to safeguard other territory. Again, relatively sparsely populated territory with varying types of rough/impassible terrain, that would add some extra 'girth' and strategic depth. All relatively minor in terms of territory in the grand scheme of things. With the exception of areas on the Marmara, which is likely to see the most variability as the area with the most political tension and largest population of Turks.
There is also some religious and historical basis at least along the southern Anatolian coast for Greek expansion out to Myra, again it's rough terrain and comparatively sparsely populated.
Letting go of Constantinople was a big ask, I think these regions and the darker blue are the ones likeliest to serve as 'carrots' for the Greek government and politicians.
In lightest blue are areas that I don't think Greece would reasonably expect to gain but might put a token effort into asking about, this region could feasibly be occupied by international forces for a period post-war, maybe under the UN mandate, maybe under some other state-let, ala the Saarland, but would likely remain Turkish in the long-term.
Others.
I think the British might have had to cough up Cyprus in exchange for Greece letting go of Constantinople, again they must have offered the Greeks some sizable concessions, generally I think that's vis-a-vis Turkey for the aforementioned reasons but Cyprus is a question in it's own right. Though how well they might keep to such an agreement is something that might cause issues down the line. Getting the British to cough up territory, at least until decolonization proper, is a bit like pulling teeth isn't it?
The rest of the map's changes are old considerations that I can't really be bothered to adjust, it's largely based off of Soviet claims that have already been argued and the treaty of Sevres. I do think Alexandretta is likely to revert to Syria considering the near results of the plebiscite and the different status of Syria's minorities, France might push to throw them a bone.
In dark blue, are areas that I think are the likeliest areas for Greece to expand.
The Dodecanese and Rhodes are almost a given at this point, considering the demographics there and the fact that Greek troops have been on the ground there since just about the start of the war. Of everything on the table it's the 'easiest' to give to Greece considering they already kinda have it except on paper.
The Dardanelles/Canakkale Area, as part of the old League Mandate, it was exempted from the population exchange, and by Lascaris's numbers has the largest numbers of Greeks, at least before the war, in areas of potential expansion. Leaving the most strategically important areas to a new UN territory, it would minimize the risk of having an enclave in the back of Asiatic Greece. Leaving areas for International bases. I could also see some sort of agreement for nominal Greek administrative and political control over the region, in exchange for demilitarization and nominal international military control over the region+Gallipoli.
The former Italian Mandate of Caria, also exempted from the population exchange on paper. There are still Greeks there, or were before the war, most seem to have fled before the Italians handed it over, but that was not terribly long ago, I wouldn't be surprised if a more than a few might be willing to go back. Politically this region is probably the least... headache inducing to give to Greece off of Turkey itself for the western allies. It's far from the straights so the Soviets can't really complain, compared to anywhere else it's relatively sparsely populated and has a good number of hills/mountains/rough terrain to work with and has/had a local population to serve as a bit of a fig-leaf.
In lighter blue are areas that I think are the most flexible, and most-likely to be considered in terms of 'defensive annexations' to safeguard other territory. Again, relatively sparsely populated territory with varying types of rough/impassible terrain, that would add some extra 'girth' and strategic depth. All relatively minor in terms of territory in the grand scheme of things. With the exception of areas on the Marmara, which is likely to see the most variability as the area with the most political tension and largest population of Turks.
There is also some religious and historical basis at least along the southern Anatolian coast for Greek expansion out to Myra, again it's rough terrain and comparatively sparsely populated.
Letting go of Constantinople was a big ask, I think these regions and the darker blue are the ones likeliest to serve as 'carrots' for the Greek government and politicians.
In lightest blue are areas that I don't think Greece would reasonably expect to gain but might put a token effort into asking about, this region could feasibly be occupied by international forces for a period post-war, maybe under the UN mandate, maybe under some other state-let, ala the Saarland, but would likely remain Turkish in the long-term.
Others.
I think the British might have had to cough up Cyprus in exchange for Greece letting go of Constantinople, again they must have offered the Greeks some sizable concessions, generally I think that's vis-a-vis Turkey for the aforementioned reasons but Cyprus is a question in it's own right. Though how well they might keep to such an agreement is something that might cause issues down the line. Getting the British to cough up territory, at least until decolonization proper, is a bit like pulling teeth isn't it?
The rest of the map's changes are old considerations that I can't really be bothered to adjust, it's largely based off of Soviet claims that have already been argued and the treaty of Sevres. I do think Alexandretta is likely to revert to Syria considering the near results of the plebiscite and the different status of Syria's minorities, France might push to throw them a bone.
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Not that dry. Winters see snow and there are river valleys. Venizelos thought it good enough that Arcanians and Evrytanians would be willing to move.
Map is interesting though I do not think Kurdistan will expand north of the mountains.
@Vaeius I just want to take a second to thank you for your constant map making when it comes to our discussions. I’ve no idea how to make maps and you blow me away with how frequently you throw maps out in the thread. That said I broadly agree with your thoughts on the map as well. Great job
I concur with this sentiment (minus the self-deprecating humor about not having cartography skills because I know I do lol (no insult meant @Duke of Orlando <.<))
Part 143 - A peace to end all peace II
Monte Cassino, April 9th, 1944
Soldiers of the Garibaldi brigade raised the Italian flag over the abbey. If the flag used by the Garibaldinis was missing the shield of the House of Savoy in its center and instead had the wreaths and double Rs of the 1848 Roman republic, that was the Italians internal affair. What mattered was that the latest Allied offensive had finally breached the German defensive line and was now advancing north.
South Ukraine, April 10th, 1944
Odessa was liberated by the Soviet army. Soviet forces were on the attack all over Ukraine. In the west Koniev's 2nd Ukrainian Front had the Dniester and Prut rivers and was trying to push into Moldavia in the face of bad weather and strong German counterattacks with heavy fighting around Targu Frumos. In Crimea Kerch would be taken the next day and the Soviets would be in Yalta by the 16th.
Anzio, April 13th, 1944
1,600 Allied guns opened up on the German positions as American, British and Greek soldiers attacked. Within 48 hours the German lines were broken and Allied forces had finally managed to effect a breakout from the beachhead.
Berlin, April 14th, 1944
The news of the replacement of Recep Peker as prime minister of Turkey, supposedly due to health reasons, had been received by concern. But then news had come that Peker had been replaced by Kazim Karabekir a close friend of Kemal who had been the only undefeated Turkish general in the 1919-21 war. And thus Hitler has dismissed the reports that the new Turkish government was going to ask for an armistice and instead concentrated his attention at the crises in Italy and in Ukraine.,,,
Sevastopol, April 15th, 1944
German, Turkish and Romanian freighters begun evacuating German and Romanian troops from Crimea to Constanta under the cover of the Royal Romanian Navy. On paper the Soviet Black Sea Fleet despite heavy casualties since 1941 should still be much stronger than the Romanians. But the loss of Sevastopol back in 1942 had meant that the Soviets had been hardly able to provide any refits and repairs to their larger ships. And thus Rumania's quartet of destroyers remained the strongest single force in the Black sea. At least as long as the Bosporus remained closed to Allied ships. Because the moment it was opened the Romanians would have very little chance to hold at sea...
East of Anzio, April 15th, 1944
Euripides Bakirtzis scratched his head in perplexion. His division had been ordered along with the bulk of the US VI Corps, to which it was attached, to take a 90 degree turn and advance morth-west instead of continuing in its current direction. But this meant the Germans retreating from Monte Cassino would not be cut off. What were the yanks thinking?
Eastern Anatolia, April 15th, 1944
Erzurum and Rize both fell to the advancing Soviet army. The Soviet advance was picking up steam while Turkish and German casualties were mounting.
Western Anatolia, April 16th, 1944
Dumlupinar fell to the Greek army. The Greek advance slowly continued eastwards despite heavy Turkish resistance.
China, April 17th, 1944
What would turn out to be the largest Japanese offensive of the war with over half a million soldiers and 17 divisions becoming involved begun with the Japanese trying to secure control of the Beijing-Wuhan railway...
Brindisi, April 21st, 1944
Italo Balbo's cabinet collapsed. And while Churchill would had liked to see it replaced by a new cabinet again under Balbo to secure stability within Italy, the Italians had different ideas. The committee of national liberation did not want a fascist in charge of the Italian government, even one who claimed he wasn't a fascist any more like Balbo. And with allied armies marching on Rome and the Italian Liberation Corps taking a notable role in the liberation of Monte Cassino they were not going to just adhere to Churchill's wishes.
Western Anatolia, April 22nd, 1944
Panormos, Bandirma for the Turks was liberated by the Greek army marking the liberation of the last territory of Asiatic Greece still under Turkish occupation. And just as importantly it meant that the Greeks had reached the sea of Marmara cutting off the straits area from the rest of Anatolia.
New Guinea, April 22nd, 1944
Elements of four US infantry divisions begun landings in the north of the island.
Cairo, April 23rd, 1944
Arranging for the single Junkers Ju52 of the Devlet Hava Yolları to get to Cairo had proven a much slower affair than Ismet Ismirli pasha, back to government after the removal of Peker, would had liked. First the new government had to settle itself. Then unfortunately for Turkey they were major practical difficulties in arranging for an armistice negotiation or at least doing so without it becoming immediately obvious to the Germans. Turkey was surrounded on all sides by enemies with the single exception of Bulgaria a fellow Axis member. In the end the feelers for an armistice had had to go through Spain, with Turkish diplomats in Madrid making the initial contacts. Yet more time had been taken for the Allies to coordinate between themselves and arrange for Ismet to meet Eden and Molotovin Cairo to hash out armistice terms. But all this had taken time, time he couldn't spare as the Greeks kept advancing east and the Soviets advancing west. And he would hardly be surprised if he learned that the Allies were taking their time in order to improve their position on the ground.
Rome, April 25th, 1944
Soldiers of the Greek II Infantry Division marched across Piazza Venezia, between the Vittoriano and Palazzo Venezia. It had been from Palazzo Venezia that back in 1940 Mussolini had promised a cheering crowd he would break the Greeks ribs as he had done with the Ethiopians. It had been again from Palazzo Venezia that he had promised to a rather more subdued crowd last May that he would drown the Allies who had invaded Sicily to the sea. Instead now the Roman crowds were cheering the American and Greek troops that had just liberated the eternal city.
Elsewhere in the city field marshal Archibald Wavell, commanding officer 15th Army Group, was anything but happy. Clark in his vainglorious insistence to enter Rome first had left the Germans get away. That was entirely unacceptable. He had already requested from London Clark's replacement.
Rome, April 28th, 1944
Ivanoe Bonomi formed Italy's first democratic government since 1922. Balbo removed from his position as prime minister would still retain the ministries of the Air Force and Italian Africa. But at the same time Palmiro Togliatti, the communist party's general secretary would become deputy prime minister.
Cairo, April 30th, 1944
Ismet put his signature on the armistice agreement. This time tomorrow the fighting, would be over. It had been a harrowing negotiation, during the single week it had taken, Channak and Afyon had fallen to the Greeks who having broken the front were in front of Kutahya at the moment and the Soviets had taken Trabzon and were advancing on Erzincan. As for the actual peace and what that would cost Turkey, he would have to wait for the peace conference. But that was perhaps for the best. Even now he had been able to take some advantage of rifts between the Soviets and the west. They were only going to get worse when the war with the Germans was over...
Selected terms of Cairo Armistice
Soldiers of the Garibaldi brigade raised the Italian flag over the abbey. If the flag used by the Garibaldinis was missing the shield of the House of Savoy in its center and instead had the wreaths and double Rs of the 1848 Roman republic, that was the Italians internal affair. What mattered was that the latest Allied offensive had finally breached the German defensive line and was now advancing north.
South Ukraine, April 10th, 1944
Odessa was liberated by the Soviet army. Soviet forces were on the attack all over Ukraine. In the west Koniev's 2nd Ukrainian Front had the Dniester and Prut rivers and was trying to push into Moldavia in the face of bad weather and strong German counterattacks with heavy fighting around Targu Frumos. In Crimea Kerch would be taken the next day and the Soviets would be in Yalta by the 16th.
Anzio, April 13th, 1944
1,600 Allied guns opened up on the German positions as American, British and Greek soldiers attacked. Within 48 hours the German lines were broken and Allied forces had finally managed to effect a breakout from the beachhead.
Berlin, April 14th, 1944
The news of the replacement of Recep Peker as prime minister of Turkey, supposedly due to health reasons, had been received by concern. But then news had come that Peker had been replaced by Kazim Karabekir a close friend of Kemal who had been the only undefeated Turkish general in the 1919-21 war. And thus Hitler has dismissed the reports that the new Turkish government was going to ask for an armistice and instead concentrated his attention at the crises in Italy and in Ukraine.,,,
Sevastopol, April 15th, 1944
German, Turkish and Romanian freighters begun evacuating German and Romanian troops from Crimea to Constanta under the cover of the Royal Romanian Navy. On paper the Soviet Black Sea Fleet despite heavy casualties since 1941 should still be much stronger than the Romanians. But the loss of Sevastopol back in 1942 had meant that the Soviets had been hardly able to provide any refits and repairs to their larger ships. And thus Rumania's quartet of destroyers remained the strongest single force in the Black sea. At least as long as the Bosporus remained closed to Allied ships. Because the moment it was opened the Romanians would have very little chance to hold at sea...
East of Anzio, April 15th, 1944
Euripides Bakirtzis scratched his head in perplexion. His division had been ordered along with the bulk of the US VI Corps, to which it was attached, to take a 90 degree turn and advance morth-west instead of continuing in its current direction. But this meant the Germans retreating from Monte Cassino would not be cut off. What were the yanks thinking?
Eastern Anatolia, April 15th, 1944
Erzurum and Rize both fell to the advancing Soviet army. The Soviet advance was picking up steam while Turkish and German casualties were mounting.
Western Anatolia, April 16th, 1944
Dumlupinar fell to the Greek army. The Greek advance slowly continued eastwards despite heavy Turkish resistance.
China, April 17th, 1944
What would turn out to be the largest Japanese offensive of the war with over half a million soldiers and 17 divisions becoming involved begun with the Japanese trying to secure control of the Beijing-Wuhan railway...
Brindisi, April 21st, 1944
Italo Balbo's cabinet collapsed. And while Churchill would had liked to see it replaced by a new cabinet again under Balbo to secure stability within Italy, the Italians had different ideas. The committee of national liberation did not want a fascist in charge of the Italian government, even one who claimed he wasn't a fascist any more like Balbo. And with allied armies marching on Rome and the Italian Liberation Corps taking a notable role in the liberation of Monte Cassino they were not going to just adhere to Churchill's wishes.
Western Anatolia, April 22nd, 1944
Panormos, Bandirma for the Turks was liberated by the Greek army marking the liberation of the last territory of Asiatic Greece still under Turkish occupation. And just as importantly it meant that the Greeks had reached the sea of Marmara cutting off the straits area from the rest of Anatolia.
New Guinea, April 22nd, 1944
Elements of four US infantry divisions begun landings in the north of the island.
Cairo, April 23rd, 1944
Arranging for the single Junkers Ju52 of the Devlet Hava Yolları to get to Cairo had proven a much slower affair than Ismet Ismirli pasha, back to government after the removal of Peker, would had liked. First the new government had to settle itself. Then unfortunately for Turkey they were major practical difficulties in arranging for an armistice negotiation or at least doing so without it becoming immediately obvious to the Germans. Turkey was surrounded on all sides by enemies with the single exception of Bulgaria a fellow Axis member. In the end the feelers for an armistice had had to go through Spain, with Turkish diplomats in Madrid making the initial contacts. Yet more time had been taken for the Allies to coordinate between themselves and arrange for Ismet to meet Eden and Molotovin Cairo to hash out armistice terms. But all this had taken time, time he couldn't spare as the Greeks kept advancing east and the Soviets advancing west. And he would hardly be surprised if he learned that the Allies were taking their time in order to improve their position on the ground.
Rome, April 25th, 1944
Soldiers of the Greek II Infantry Division marched across Piazza Venezia, between the Vittoriano and Palazzo Venezia. It had been from Palazzo Venezia that back in 1940 Mussolini had promised a cheering crowd he would break the Greeks ribs as he had done with the Ethiopians. It had been again from Palazzo Venezia that he had promised to a rather more subdued crowd last May that he would drown the Allies who had invaded Sicily to the sea. Instead now the Roman crowds were cheering the American and Greek troops that had just liberated the eternal city.
Elsewhere in the city field marshal Archibald Wavell, commanding officer 15th Army Group, was anything but happy. Clark in his vainglorious insistence to enter Rome first had left the Germans get away. That was entirely unacceptable. He had already requested from London Clark's replacement.
Rome, April 28th, 1944
Ivanoe Bonomi formed Italy's first democratic government since 1922. Balbo removed from his position as prime minister would still retain the ministries of the Air Force and Italian Africa. But at the same time Palmiro Togliatti, the communist party's general secretary would become deputy prime minister.
Cairo, April 30th, 1944
Ismet put his signature on the armistice agreement. This time tomorrow the fighting, would be over. It had been a harrowing negotiation, during the single week it had taken, Channak and Afyon had fallen to the Greeks who having broken the front were in front of Kutahya at the moment and the Soviets had taken Trabzon and were advancing on Erzincan. As for the actual peace and what that would cost Turkey, he would have to wait for the peace conference. But that was perhaps for the best. Even now he had been able to take some advantage of rifts between the Soviets and the west. They were only going to get worse when the war with the Germans was over...
Selected terms of Cairo Armistice
- Turkey recognizes the independence of the republic of Kurdistan, the exact borders of the two states to be determined in the final peace treaty.
- Turkey to immediately demobilize its army.
- Turkey to break relations with all Axis nations and intern all their nationals.
- Turkey to surrender all its warships to the Allies, their eventual fate to be determined in the final peace treaty.
- The entirety of the Turkish merchant marine to put to the disposal of the Allies till the conclusion of the war.
- Turkish territory currently occupied by allied armies to remain under Allied administration till conclusion of a final peace treaty.
- The Allies till conclusion of the hostilities with the Axis nations, to have full access to Turkish territory and use of Turkish ports and railroads as they deem necessary to pursue operations against the Axis.
- All Turkish production of war materials to cease immediately till conclusion of the final peace treaty.
- Turkey to immediately release all Allied civilians and military personnel in its custody.
- An Allied Control Commission will be established to undertake the regulation and control of the execution of the armistice agreement.
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We finally reached this point. Very quick decision making, but for the best. Now it is clear to all a Kurdish state is going to be created. Will be interesting to see reactions.
Well, talk about timing. Quite the consequential update at that!
Not that that's... hard. All things considered. Maybe there will be a little less lead this time around?
They're not dumb that's for sure. Though likely a little, a lot, later than many of the new government might have liked. I'm not sure what Ismet got here that was exploiting allied discord though?
I wonder how the Germans/Bulgarians will react, they'll likely at least have time enough to seize the straights and the Turkish areas in Europe, which will likely be a pain to push past, though more that that.... I wonder if the Turks took any lessons to heart after the Italians came to terms.
It is the better flag in my humble opinion, any chance it gets kept as the standard following the war?
Gonna be honest, that's really quite funny. I do wonder how the German/Bulgarian forces handle the Cairo armistice and how long the straights will remain in axis hands. Plus how that might effect the Yalta conference in a year's time. If there will be a Yalta conference actually.
Oh no... what a... tragedy... Anyway, that's probably a rather good thing for Italy at large, to make a clear change in the old/new government going into the final phases of the war and the final peace. A new government of democratic reformists liberating the north of the country from the Nazi's isn't a terrible base to build something new from. I've got a feeling Italy might walk away from ww2 a little better off than otl here.
Not that that's... hard. All things considered. Maybe there will be a little less lead this time around?
That certainly won't hurt the Greek position at the winner's table. Are they sitting in the former league territory in Cannakale as well?
And so the second Axis power falls. Who's taking bets? Bulgaria next? In otl they and Romania fell to coups in June. Though things are... different here.
They're not dumb that's for sure. Though likely a little, a lot, later than many of the new government might have liked. I'm not sure what Ismet got here that was exploiting allied discord though?
I wonder how the Germans/Bulgarians will react, they'll likely at least have time enough to seize the straights and the Turkish areas in Europe, which will likely be a pain to push past, though more that that.... I wonder if the Turks took any lessons to heart after the Italians came to terms.
Yep, that’s a Hitler decision if I ever saw one lmao. We’re obviously losing and there was just a regime change in our ally? It’s fiiiiinnnnneeee. That said Italy and particularly Ukraine are the most pressing matters at hand.
Damn, the Greeks got all the way to Afyon before the ceasefire. I hadn’t realized they got that far inland. And the Soviets got to Trabzon. That’s a lot of collective bargaining power even if you can play the Soviets and Wallies of each other.
Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get something like the Arrow Cross Party Coup in Hungary IOTL here in either Romania or Bulgaria.
Especially as the Germans can always have the Iron Guard in Romania proclaim a National Legionary State if the government looks for a way out.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lot of the European Axis minor powers scrambling almost immediately after the Turkish ceasefire. There will probably be some coups, maybe even concurrent coups as different groups try to take advantage at the same time. Because it’s becoming more apparent every day that the end in nigh. It’s just a question of who you surrender to and what it’ll cost you.
My expectation is the Turks will let German forces vacate to the old international zone, and tell the Allies it is there job to flush the Axis out.