Well they still have interior lines , good operational leadership , and the distances involved are still rather big. Long term the Allies can of course win. But obviously they are not thinking longterm. So haste can lead to defeat in the midterm.
Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
Consider. The distance between Sivas and Erzurum is about 470km , between Sivas and Usak is 670km. None of these are easy distances to cover against an enemy that is fighting.
It's just that if they cut off Constantinople and disrupt Adana (not to mention the fact that Turkey has a lot less money to build up industry) Turkey has no capability to produce enough stocks to deal with both armies.
I think that if the Turks fight on after Constantinople is besieged and their route to Europe is cut off they'll lose small chunks of land before they fully collapse bc there aren't enough steel to stop the advances at all. Prob within a year or two.
Interlude - On the banks of Sakarya
Bir Ankara Gecesi, June 1944
The two men sat quietly in their campaign tent. The big mustache smoked a cigarette, while the small mustache focused on his coffee. The tent flap was open, letting in the cool night air of the Anatolian heartland. Around them were several other tents. It had been tradition since the end of the last war for the graduating class of the Ottoman Officers Military School, and the Ottoman War School, to camp out on these specific June nights on the hills overlooking the Sakarya river valley, as a form of homage to the men who had fought a desperate losing battle, 22 years ago. The current war had not disrupted this tradition.
Ankara had never recovered from the war. The infidels had torched the public buildings, including the First Parliament building. The so called Izmir Corps, with its divisions filled by Rum traitors under the command of that buffoon Ioannou, had devastated the area, torching villages. The region never really recovered. The small town was nestled against the ancient fort. Most of the population that had fled had not returned, seeking opportunities at Sivas and Kayseri. The town mostly served as a waystation for transportation between Eskisehir and Sivas. Of course, the current war had increased the town’s traffic and role, as the Eskisehir-Ankara-Sivas transportation network served the Turkish armies fighting in Bati Anadolu, and holding Trakya. But it was an artificial increase, fed by the voracious appetite of war.
It would not be wrong to argue that the military cemetery doting the hills around Polatli contained more people than the permanent denizens of the town of Ankara. That morning the big mustache had led the cadets and graduating officers in a ceremony of homage to the sehitler buried there. The hoja had read the proper prayers, the cadets had washed the tombs with water. Tradition then called for them all to camp in tents on those hills where that desperate titanic struggle had taken place. The custom was for a rough camp, with bare necessities, a chance for the future of the army and the country to connect to its past. Of course, during the last three years some of their guest officers insisted on coming. Some out of genuine respect for the effort of their past and current allies, some, increasingly to spy on big mustache. But in general, it was a good opportunity to gain some isolation from the world. A break from the current war, and in this case a chance to ponder and plan the future.
The big mustache took a puff of this cigarette. The small mustache winched a bit inside at this. He always remembered the big mustache as a strong man, a leader, and the model of healthy living. Unlike Kemal, he was no drinker, and did not use to smoke. But the weight of this current war on his shoulders had take its toll. Big mustache exhaled and looked small mustache in the eye
“Ismet, you understand what I am asking of you. Once more I ask you my old comrade and friend to sacrifice yourself for the good of the nation and the army.”
“Would not Kazim Pasha be a better choice? Unlike me he is less burdened by defeat.”
“No. You know Kazim. He is no politician. He is a good officer, even brilliant I dare say, but he has no head for politics. Just remember how easily Kemal Pasha was able to get him to follow his lead. Kazim had all the opportunity to take control of the movement in Anatolia. He did not exactly because he knew he was not cut out to be a statesman. He may now think he does, but that is just the curse of growing old. An exaggerated sense of self.”
“Ismet, do you know what is the hallmark of a statesman? The willingness to sacrifice yourself for the nation. Kemal Pasha did it. You did it when you accepted your forced retirement during the war. Therefore it has to be you. I know you, and I order you to save the army and the nation. This is my last order my friend”.
Small mustache sipped his roasted coffee. He looked at his friend and superior.
“Pasham, I have no issue to sacrifice myself and my legacy for the country and the army. But would it gain anything? What you have told me over these last weeks paints a bleak picture. It seems Allah has decreed we drink another bitter cup. I am not sure what I can do?”
Big mustache took another draw of smoke from his cigarette. He exhaled into the cold night air. An air that brought you to life.
“Yes, Ismet, it is bad, and it will get worse. To paraphrase that bastard Talat, we are about to be shat on. But exactly our imminent defeat opens up some ray of hope. Allah never gives up on his faithful Ismet. Those damnable straits and that cursed city may be the tools for the salvation of the nation.
Consider that as the likelihood of the straits being taken from us increases, so does the intensity of the question of their disposition post-war. The Soviets and the Western Allies are not going to be able to decide how to share them if at all. They will squabble, inshallah even get to fighting over them. This opens up the possibility for us to negotiate a peace. We will lose, and a lot of us, including me, will have to sacrifice ourselves for our country. But we might be able to salvage the country and the army for the nation.”
Small mustached spoke
“But will not the Greeks try to take the straits and the City. You know how obsessed they are with it.”
Big mustache smirked
“Well we just launched this war to get it ourselves back, but inshallah we are once and for all cured of this madness. Let the Greeks want it if they are mad for it. They are not getting it. Maybe they will get the Old City, maybe not. Let them ruin their country for once chasing dreams. I have had enough trying to rebuilt what Allah has decreed to be broken. Osman’s Dream was a beautiful one, but its time has passed. We must now focus on a dream of Turkey.
But you know what Ismet. I think the Greeks, despite their romantic madness know they will not get it. That is why that romantic Dragoumis put Stergiadi bey into the prime-ministership. Stergiadi bey is no romantic. He is a practical man, and one known to be willing to defy popular opinion. He is a good statesman, he will take the fall for the good of his country.
This is why I think now, rather than later we must start the plans to make peace. Now that the Greeks have their ardor cut off, and have a pragmatic person for prime minister. That might cut out some of the rancor of the Western governments, and give us some leeway to negotiate with Moscow.”
Small mustache sipped his coffee.
“Pasham I understand, but as you know I have little influence in the Meclis. Kazim probably could carry a majority in his support, especially if backed by you.”
Big mustache waved his hand
“We are not going to seek a majority in the national assembly Ismet. The heir to the throne has agreed to support the plan. And he is working into bringing aboard his sublime majesty, may Allah bless his name. The sultan is old, and his health is not the best. At the proper moment, he will declare his resignation from the throne in favor of the crown prince. This is not unaccounted for in Osmanli history. I remind you of Ikinci Murad. On ascension, by the constitution the assembly must be dissolved and elections called. But due to the war a caretaker government can be called into power, and elections postponed until the state of emergency due to war is resolved. You will be appointed Prime Minister then. Worry not, I am already working on building support for you. Many officers respect you and your sacrifice during the war. And you should be palatable to the Allied governments.”
Small mustache drank another sip of the coffee
“But will Peker accept this? Will the Germans?”
Big mustache’s features hardened.
“If Peker does not have the mettle of a statesman, he will then be forced to act as one. As for the Germans, I will make sure they are in no position to do anything. And the solution to that is simple. I intend to ask for the evacuation of Turkish forces from the straits and Europe. Military necessity demands it, and the Germans can move their forces in Anatolia to take and hold the straits. Let them fight for them, since they are so obsessed with them. We must save the country and the army. Continuing this war threatens both.”
Small mustache spoke
“Pasham, this is a big gamble. A movement of troops can weaken the front and lead to collapse. The Germans might suspect something. “
Big mustache chuckled.
“I am aware Ismet, but we must take risks. Perhaps I am taking massive gambles, but this is my last play in life….Please do not worry. I am no coward to take my life. No, my life is still useful to this country with me breathing. I am going to be one of the prizes that will be offered up to the Soviets in order to gain their agreement for peace. You will offer me. “
“Pasham, I cannot, and the Soviets? They will kill you. I know we have worked with them in the past, but can we trust them?”
“Due to the Greeks, the Western Allies are unlikely to accept peace offers first. The Soviets though are more likely to do so. I do not trust them, I trust cold military logic. They are more under pressure to close this front. They have obtained many of the things they want from us already. We know them and they know us. And we can give them access to the Straits by facilitating their military movements. Maybe you are right and they will kill me, but not at first. No Ismet, giving me up is another sacrifice you have to make. It will be proof of your commitment to changing the policy. And my sacrifice will help you protect the army in any peace treaty.
My friend, after this war is over, you will have a chance to renew the nation. We probably will be free of the Kurdish regions that hold us back. You probably will be able to implement a lot of the reforms that Mustafa Kemal Pasha dreamt off but could not. Our country will need a statesman to guide it between the Soviet and Allied pressures. I cannot trust anybody else. I know you, the army knows you. You must sacrifice once more your legacy and be called the author of defeat. You must sacrifice me. You must so that the other states understand that you are indeed a statesman. So once more, this is my last order. Do this Ismet. You must.”
Ismet Ismirli looked at his friend Marshal Favzi Chakmak, General Chief of Staff of the Army of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. We tears in his eyes he said “Evet Pasham. I obey”.
Big mustache looked at this friend, comrade, subordinate with a thoughtful look. He then took another draw of this cigarette
“Good, when the time comes Kazim Pasha will take up my role. For Minister of War I suggest Pertev Demirhan Pasha.. I know, I know, why this relic…well like you he has a good brain in his head, and like you he is defeated. They will call you the team of losers. But Pertev is not an original ihtilaji and was purged in the Raid to the Subline Porte. And he is a patriot and loves the army. He will be good cover for protecting the staff officers, then you………”
And the two men discussed and plotted the cool Ankara June night away.
The two men sat quietly in their campaign tent. The big mustache smoked a cigarette, while the small mustache focused on his coffee. The tent flap was open, letting in the cool night air of the Anatolian heartland. Around them were several other tents. It had been tradition since the end of the last war for the graduating class of the Ottoman Officers Military School, and the Ottoman War School, to camp out on these specific June nights on the hills overlooking the Sakarya river valley, as a form of homage to the men who had fought a desperate losing battle, 22 years ago. The current war had not disrupted this tradition.
Ankara had never recovered from the war. The infidels had torched the public buildings, including the First Parliament building. The so called Izmir Corps, with its divisions filled by Rum traitors under the command of that buffoon Ioannou, had devastated the area, torching villages. The region never really recovered. The small town was nestled against the ancient fort. Most of the population that had fled had not returned, seeking opportunities at Sivas and Kayseri. The town mostly served as a waystation for transportation between Eskisehir and Sivas. Of course, the current war had increased the town’s traffic and role, as the Eskisehir-Ankara-Sivas transportation network served the Turkish armies fighting in Bati Anadolu, and holding Trakya. But it was an artificial increase, fed by the voracious appetite of war.
It would not be wrong to argue that the military cemetery doting the hills around Polatli contained more people than the permanent denizens of the town of Ankara. That morning the big mustache had led the cadets and graduating officers in a ceremony of homage to the sehitler buried there. The hoja had read the proper prayers, the cadets had washed the tombs with water. Tradition then called for them all to camp in tents on those hills where that desperate titanic struggle had taken place. The custom was for a rough camp, with bare necessities, a chance for the future of the army and the country to connect to its past. Of course, during the last three years some of their guest officers insisted on coming. Some out of genuine respect for the effort of their past and current allies, some, increasingly to spy on big mustache. But in general, it was a good opportunity to gain some isolation from the world. A break from the current war, and in this case a chance to ponder and plan the future.
The big mustache took a puff of this cigarette. The small mustache winched a bit inside at this. He always remembered the big mustache as a strong man, a leader, and the model of healthy living. Unlike Kemal, he was no drinker, and did not use to smoke. But the weight of this current war on his shoulders had take its toll. Big mustache exhaled and looked small mustache in the eye
“Ismet, you understand what I am asking of you. Once more I ask you my old comrade and friend to sacrifice yourself for the good of the nation and the army.”
“Would not Kazim Pasha be a better choice? Unlike me he is less burdened by defeat.”
“No. You know Kazim. He is no politician. He is a good officer, even brilliant I dare say, but he has no head for politics. Just remember how easily Kemal Pasha was able to get him to follow his lead. Kazim had all the opportunity to take control of the movement in Anatolia. He did not exactly because he knew he was not cut out to be a statesman. He may now think he does, but that is just the curse of growing old. An exaggerated sense of self.”
“Ismet, do you know what is the hallmark of a statesman? The willingness to sacrifice yourself for the nation. Kemal Pasha did it. You did it when you accepted your forced retirement during the war. Therefore it has to be you. I know you, and I order you to save the army and the nation. This is my last order my friend”.
Small mustache sipped his roasted coffee. He looked at his friend and superior.
“Pasham, I have no issue to sacrifice myself and my legacy for the country and the army. But would it gain anything? What you have told me over these last weeks paints a bleak picture. It seems Allah has decreed we drink another bitter cup. I am not sure what I can do?”
Big mustache took another draw of smoke from his cigarette. He exhaled into the cold night air. An air that brought you to life.
“Yes, Ismet, it is bad, and it will get worse. To paraphrase that bastard Talat, we are about to be shat on. But exactly our imminent defeat opens up some ray of hope. Allah never gives up on his faithful Ismet. Those damnable straits and that cursed city may be the tools for the salvation of the nation.
Consider that as the likelihood of the straits being taken from us increases, so does the intensity of the question of their disposition post-war. The Soviets and the Western Allies are not going to be able to decide how to share them if at all. They will squabble, inshallah even get to fighting over them. This opens up the possibility for us to negotiate a peace. We will lose, and a lot of us, including me, will have to sacrifice ourselves for our country. But we might be able to salvage the country and the army for the nation.”
Small mustached spoke
“But will not the Greeks try to take the straits and the City. You know how obsessed they are with it.”
Big mustache smirked
“Well we just launched this war to get it ourselves back, but inshallah we are once and for all cured of this madness. Let the Greeks want it if they are mad for it. They are not getting it. Maybe they will get the Old City, maybe not. Let them ruin their country for once chasing dreams. I have had enough trying to rebuilt what Allah has decreed to be broken. Osman’s Dream was a beautiful one, but its time has passed. We must now focus on a dream of Turkey.
But you know what Ismet. I think the Greeks, despite their romantic madness know they will not get it. That is why that romantic Dragoumis put Stergiadi bey into the prime-ministership. Stergiadi bey is no romantic. He is a practical man, and one known to be willing to defy popular opinion. He is a good statesman, he will take the fall for the good of his country.
This is why I think now, rather than later we must start the plans to make peace. Now that the Greeks have their ardor cut off, and have a pragmatic person for prime minister. That might cut out some of the rancor of the Western governments, and give us some leeway to negotiate with Moscow.”
Small mustache sipped his coffee.
“Pasham I understand, but as you know I have little influence in the Meclis. Kazim probably could carry a majority in his support, especially if backed by you.”
Big mustache waved his hand
“We are not going to seek a majority in the national assembly Ismet. The heir to the throne has agreed to support the plan. And he is working into bringing aboard his sublime majesty, may Allah bless his name. The sultan is old, and his health is not the best. At the proper moment, he will declare his resignation from the throne in favor of the crown prince. This is not unaccounted for in Osmanli history. I remind you of Ikinci Murad. On ascension, by the constitution the assembly must be dissolved and elections called. But due to the war a caretaker government can be called into power, and elections postponed until the state of emergency due to war is resolved. You will be appointed Prime Minister then. Worry not, I am already working on building support for you. Many officers respect you and your sacrifice during the war. And you should be palatable to the Allied governments.”
Small mustache drank another sip of the coffee
“But will Peker accept this? Will the Germans?”
Big mustache’s features hardened.
“If Peker does not have the mettle of a statesman, he will then be forced to act as one. As for the Germans, I will make sure they are in no position to do anything. And the solution to that is simple. I intend to ask for the evacuation of Turkish forces from the straits and Europe. Military necessity demands it, and the Germans can move their forces in Anatolia to take and hold the straits. Let them fight for them, since they are so obsessed with them. We must save the country and the army. Continuing this war threatens both.”
Small mustache spoke
“Pasham, this is a big gamble. A movement of troops can weaken the front and lead to collapse. The Germans might suspect something. “
Big mustache chuckled.
“I am aware Ismet, but we must take risks. Perhaps I am taking massive gambles, but this is my last play in life….Please do not worry. I am no coward to take my life. No, my life is still useful to this country with me breathing. I am going to be one of the prizes that will be offered up to the Soviets in order to gain their agreement for peace. You will offer me. “
“Pasham, I cannot, and the Soviets? They will kill you. I know we have worked with them in the past, but can we trust them?”
“Due to the Greeks, the Western Allies are unlikely to accept peace offers first. The Soviets though are more likely to do so. I do not trust them, I trust cold military logic. They are more under pressure to close this front. They have obtained many of the things they want from us already. We know them and they know us. And we can give them access to the Straits by facilitating their military movements. Maybe you are right and they will kill me, but not at first. No Ismet, giving me up is another sacrifice you have to make. It will be proof of your commitment to changing the policy. And my sacrifice will help you protect the army in any peace treaty.
My friend, after this war is over, you will have a chance to renew the nation. We probably will be free of the Kurdish regions that hold us back. You probably will be able to implement a lot of the reforms that Mustafa Kemal Pasha dreamt off but could not. Our country will need a statesman to guide it between the Soviet and Allied pressures. I cannot trust anybody else. I know you, the army knows you. You must sacrifice once more your legacy and be called the author of defeat. You must sacrifice me. You must so that the other states understand that you are indeed a statesman. So once more, this is my last order. Do this Ismet. You must.”
Ismet Ismirli looked at his friend Marshal Favzi Chakmak, General Chief of Staff of the Army of the Ottoman Turkish Empire. We tears in his eyes he said “Evet Pasham. I obey”.
Big mustache looked at this friend, comrade, subordinate with a thoughtful look. He then took another draw of this cigarette
“Good, when the time comes Kazim Pasha will take up my role. For Minister of War I suggest Pertev Demirhan Pasha.. I know, I know, why this relic…well like you he has a good brain in his head, and like you he is defeated. They will call you the team of losers. But Pertev is not an original ihtilaji and was purged in the Raid to the Subline Porte. And he is a patriot and loves the army. He will be good cover for protecting the staff officers, then you………”
And the two men discussed and plotted the cool Ankara June night away.
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While you... keep waiting for part 142, this is a guest contribution from @Khan Doomy looking at things from the Turkish point of view.
If the Turks negotiate a separate peace with the Soviets it’s going to have massive butterflies. That’s something that makes the western Allies much more likely to shrug their shoulders and make a separate peace with Germany after a successful Valkyrie. That “Soviet betrayal” could complete change the outcome of the war. They gained the straits only to turn Greece against them in perpetuity. Operation Unthinkable becomes a lot more thinkable. Not because of the straits specifically, but because the Soviets have shown they can’t be trusted to be a team player.
Now obviously just because the Turks want it, doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen. But if it does what the world looks like post war is much less certain.
Now obviously just because the Turks want it, doesn’t necessarily mean it will happen. But if it does what the world looks like post war is much less certain.
I think that while such offer would perhaps have been received with with bigger interest if the Soviet situation would be other with the Germans expelled from the Rodina... But, at this stage of the war, more than the effects of a possible separated peace terms with the Soviets, beyond of the Turkish leadership, IMO, wishful thinking like or ill placed trust in their enemies pragmatism at the time of negotiating. What, would would be key is that the Turkish should be more worried on what at this stage, could they realistically offer/hand over, to the Soviets, that they would believe that they'd get any chances of success...
Or putting it in another way... What could possibly the Soviets would get from the Turkish that would be worth to sidelining their Western Allies,that they couldn't get either in the battlefield or later at the negotiating table?
Also, I think that at this stage that the Soviets and Stalin particularly, would be more interested/would consider that in this scenario, 'd be the certain possibility that they wouldn't get any say on any future peace negotiations/political arrangements on TTL postwar future of the M. E.
Specifically, about the future of Eastern/South Eastern Anatolia, any eventual new sates to be formed and/or on the Iranian future postwar borders, in particular, to be made in the future by the Wallies.
How realistic do you guys think it would be for Greece to at least get European Constantinople? That's where all the important Byzantine stuff is, so Greece would be particularly invested in at least that.
Tbf I think the Turks will calculate incorrectly by trusting the Soviets. The Soviets (I think) would calculate correctly that not pushing their control to the east would be detrimental to their long term survival, and push for the Hellespont and Constantinople to continue being international (perhaps split between wally and the Soviets in a west-east fashion) territory and giving the allies consessions in more control over Anatolia for exchange for Turkey being 'their ally'.
If that's the case I see Japan retaining their half of Karafuto (or even all of Karafuto if the relationship between them have become this bad) and the Kurils since the Wallies won't trust the soviets to do as they say, and if operation Valkyrie succeeds I see Germany keeping Pomerania and Silesia with minor adjustments of the border with Poland and the loss of Prussia to the Poles. NATO starts with the Poles being a member state alongside Greece.
I think it's fairly likely at this point, they may be some ways away from the european side of the city right now but they're relatively close to the asian side and once they have boots on the ground there they can either use it as a staging ground to get to the european side or swap it for the european side once the dust has settled and the war is over
Tbf I see the Soviets being fussy about European Constantinople but in practice they really could do nothing about it. I see them attempting to make it international territory tho.
I also wonder would the Soviets annexing bits of Bithynia at the end. It's very possible especially if things fall apart.
OK. Martyrs is a good word. But i had to dig deep to find the meaning.
Googling the term gave me two cities and a football player, all with diacritical - Şehitler.
Plugging THAT into Wiktionary.org gave no dirtect hits, but some of the indirect ones let me figure out the meaning.
The general idea IS clear from context, but my first guess was 'heroes', then 'The Fallen'.
??? Roasted coffee?
Do you mean dark roast? All coffee is roasted.
Or is this a term for coffee made in an ibrik, say.
mettle
----
While one can tell that English probably isn't your native language, it isn't really obvious. And it's most certainly better than MY secondary languages!!!!
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To be honest I am puzzled...
The Turks have finally accepted they will lose Constantinople for ever, but they will trade it for a separate peace with the Soviets, as the Wallies (so they think) will not accept a separate peace with Turkey because of Greece. But in order to obtain this, they will aske the German army to occupy Constantinople, so that the Turkish army will evacuate in Anatolia, and then Turkey will facilitate the movement of the Soviet army towards Constantinople, where the Soviets will have to fight the Germans!
Wouldn't it be easier to trade Constantinople to get a separate peace with the Wallies, without all this confusion?
With Constantinople in the hands of the Wallies (and a slight border "correction" in Asia Minor), why wouldn't Greece accept a separate peace?
The Turks have finally accepted they will lose Constantinople for ever, but they will trade it for a separate peace with the Soviets, as the Wallies (so they think) will not accept a separate peace with Turkey because of Greece. But in order to obtain this, they will aske the German army to occupy Constantinople, so that the Turkish army will evacuate in Anatolia, and then Turkey will facilitate the movement of the Soviet army towards Constantinople, where the Soviets will have to fight the Germans!
Wouldn't it be easier to trade Constantinople to get a separate peace with the Wallies, without all this confusion?
With Constantinople in the hands of the Wallies (and a slight border "correction" in Asia Minor), why wouldn't Greece accept a separate peace?
I think the only thing the turks don't want is the Greeks holding Constantinople to sow discord, and in order to do this they need the Soviets to do it.
I don't think it's going to work as intended.
Does it make any sense for Turkey to effectively help the neighbouring USSR (including the SSR of Armenia) get on both the western and the eastern sides of their country?
Having a superpower on both your flanks can never be very comfortable. Especially if this superpower is trying to export an ideology, the supporters of which are virtually directed from the said superpower. On the other hand, having the Wallies on the western side, even with Greece setting a foot in Constantinople, isn't even distantly that bad, as the westerners in the end always want business, and the great powers would never give a free hand to the Greeks.
Furthermore, remember that ITTL there hasn't been a genocide against the Greeks, only against the Armenians.
Having a superpower on both your flanks can never be very comfortable. Especially if this superpower is trying to export an ideology, the supporters of which are virtually directed from the said superpower. On the other hand, having the Wallies on the western side, even with Greece setting a foot in Constantinople, isn't even distantly that bad, as the westerners in the end always want business, and the great powers would never give a free hand to the Greeks.
Furthermore, remember that ITTL there hasn't been a genocide against the Greeks, only against the Armenians.
In Islamic cultures şehitler (shehitler) means nartyr and is used to mean anybody who died in battle fighting initially for the Chalif, now for the state. The term in some places, i.e Turkey, has now been broadened to mean anybody who died in service for the state (including accidents during fire-fightong or military setcice) , a rather broad interpetration.
Roasted coffee: well yes you are right.
Mettle: quite right. But explanation is probably severe dyslexia. Speaking, writing English since 6. I am just as bad in Greek.
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Honestly I think that Greece will eventually get the entirety of the city back, but I think it will be in a piecemeal fashion over a long period of time. Let’s say that the city itself is broken up into occupation zones similar to Berlin. I even expect Greece to have an occupation zone in such a scenario even if it’s a hodgepodge of important cultural locations and not really a population area. Eventually the western allies are going to transfer it to a friendly power like they did with OTL Western Berlin. Probably with some specific agreements about respecting mosques and treating the remaining Turks, however negligible an amount, as equals. As for Eastern Constantinople, it’s likely to be surrounded on all sides by Greece. It’s likely to be where many Greek communists go. Greek communists who have already shown in the war that the homeland can come before the cause. Some of these will inevitably be spies reporting each and every thing to Athen. I don’t even think the inevitable Russian settlers would bother them. They’d want all their city, even if they had to wait decades. If the ATL future resembles ours to a similar degree, I think the moment swan lake hits the airwaves in the 90’s we could see the Greek Army making a dash for whatever Soviet territories are in the area. The Soviets would inevitably threaten a response about it but once Greece controls the area I doubt NATO I going to want to give up control of the straights. And I don’t think the Soviets are in any position to challenge it at that point.
That’s assuming they’re not traded to the Greeks for concessions of some sort or another at another point. Seeing as Turkeys status as a NATO member is questionable to say the least, there’s a very good chance Greece becomes the home of NATO’s nuclear arsenal in that area. Or maybe it doesn’t if the Soviets are willing to give them enough incentive not to.
I think the chances of Greece getting the European side are very high. But I would not bet on an easy extension of control over the whole of the straits. At least without serious restrictions on Greek sovereignty.
Aside from whatever would be their chances to be successful in any diplomatic overture to the Soviets. I think, that the Turkish leader would be misreading, at least partially, the situation and all of its possible consequences.
Cause, I tend to think that a 'pragmatic' at the heel of the Greek State, pursuing a likewise agenda and coordinating with their allies. It, couldn't be considered as 'good news' neither for their present war effort nor for the postwar Turkish perspectives, but rather the contrary.
Given that, I can envision a postwar scenario, where for no push for/renouncing to challenge whatever decision that would be agreed on the Allies conferences/negotiations, on the Straits future status.
The new Prime Minister of Greece could perhaps, with bigger chances of success, ask/push for and to get, otherwise highly unlikely, concessions/compensations, for TTL post war Greece, from their Allies.
Tbf my guess is that Constantinople gets partitioned between the west and the Soviets with the Greeks gradually gain more power over the European bits of the City due to fears of the Turks trying anything funny if they police the City. Added with the fact that the Turks should be staging something in Cyprus and I'm pretty sure the west wouldn't trust them at all.
Greece would get the City around the time the USSR starts to weaken/when they fall.
I have a theory that the Soviets either get control over Bithynia and claim they control Tsargrad after so long.
Tbf I agree, but I think the Turks mean it as 'we've lost and the Greek leader isn't a nutcase'. At this point the Turks just hate the Greeks. They've taken away Ionia, preventing them from industrialising, prevented their allies from controlling all of Europe and making their resupply tenous (I think everyone thought the Germans had a chance of destroying the USSR) and preventing them from getting Cyprus (they caused the Brits to stop trusting them). Greece is personal, the other great powers just have interests they can leverage.