Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

I think we should first take in account what TTL Greece wants. To a large extent TTL Greece is the product if Venizelos' ideas and he was more a nationalist than irredentist. See for example how he played with the Pontic issue. That means that Greece wants the land the Greeks live in and prosper.
Therefore, by this point Greece probably wants Cyprus and Constantinople to fullfil he national vision, plus whatever reinforces her borders and the prosperity of the nation: ie more defensible borders. Minor extra concessions which include natural resources could be added, perceived as reparations for the enemy attacks.
That said, Greece doesn't seem tonask for so much, appart from Constantinople, but this is also a matter of how the USSR plays. It might seem far better even for the USA that Greece keeps Constntinople, if this way the USSR is kept away. Furthermore, if the involvement of the US forces in the Greek Front means a closer cooperation of Greek and American policymakers and economic cooperation, it is no unlikely that the Greeks can appreciate the American policy of lessez faire: if the economy of Turkey and which ever Balkan countries stay within the western sphere are more to international commerce and capital movement, Greece can benefit. Otherwise, if the post-WWI model (economic spheres) prevails, the Turkish economy will be closed to the Greek businesses for a long time.
Therefore it is not unlikely that Greece aligns more with the USA and vice versa.
While I agree with what you’re saying about the difference between nationalism and irredentism in TTL’s Greece, we also have to remember this is the third costly war in 30 years that the Greeks have won against Turkey. Combined it’s likely about a million Greeks have died in or because of these wars. I’d be surprised if there was a single person in the country who hasn’t lost a friend or family member to the Turks at this point between military losses and the deaths of civilians. And that’s only in living memory and ignoring any grudges for other reasons. The people of Greece will see weakening Turkey as much as possible as essential to the continues health and safety of Hellas. They won’t care that the land used to be there’s. They just don’t want Turkey to have it. So I don’t think they only want Constantinople, that’s just what’s most important to them.

Honestly I think that unless it directly harms their personal goals (international Constantinople for example), the Greeks plan to support any and every claim someone might have on Turkish lands. French Armenian Cilicia? Why not, demographics are for squares. Soviet Pontus? Sounds good, you want some communist Greeks to put in charge?

To be clear I’m not saying that this is the best or smartest approach. But politicians backed by angry voters who want their pound of flesh don’t always make the right decisions. So I think they’ll try to grab as much of Turkey as they can and support others grabbing as much as they can, to minimize the Turkish threat as much as possible in the future.
 
I don't doubt that Cakmak is ready for peace; ITTL there has already been a mention of some overtures made in Switzerland even. The issue as I see is the peace that Turkey is ready to make is not necessarily the peace the allies; especially Greece; are ready to make. If the allies offered an Ante Bellum peace I am sure Turkey would jump on it. The fact they haven't already strongly suggests behind the scenes that Greece; and to a lesser extent Britain; has been able to muster the consensus that Turkey must be punished in some way.
The Turkish problem at the moment is exactly this. The realists like Cakmak will want to untangle themselves from the war. But the Allies must be also willing to make peace. Add in sunk costs fallacies on both sides. At the moment the Turkish army does control Greek Thrace, Constantinople, parts of Ionia and a sizeable part of Georgia and Armenia. Accepting to actually lose territory is not that easy. And on the reverse why the Allies should make any substantial compromise when it looks they are winning, and Turkey joining the war has cost them hundreds of thousands casualties. So if they want a compromise the two questions are what is vital for each side and how from the Turkish point of view you manage to get the Allies to make any amends they don't want.

What that punishment looks like likely differs greatly depending on which power we are talking about and that is where the opportunity for Turkish diplomacy exists if they are willing to jump at it. Broadly if I had to guess the powers are roughly from most lenient to least USA, UK, France, Greece with the Soviets out of the line-up because for the USSR it also depends what type of government exists in Turkey to decide on how lenient they are.
USSR has one overwhelming concern. Control of the straits. Both to allow their ships to go out of the Black sea and to avoid British and American ships to go in. You don't need Stalin levels of paranoia to see USN or RN squadrons on the Golden Horn as a threat...

USA - Minor border concessions in Smyrna and a demilitarized zone around said border combined with opening up country to American investment gives the US the leeway to say Greece is protected and opens up a new market for American manufacturing.
The US is not yet paranoid of the Soviet Union... it does not mean they won't be at the time of the final peace settlement. Another possible if limited factor. Henry Morgenthau Jr just happens to be secretary of the treasury. And Henry Sr just happened to be American ambassador to the Ottoman empire at the time of the 1915 genocide, one of its most vocal opponents and founder of Near East Relief.
UK - Similar to the US though maybe a bit more Greece territory but probably by this point also carving out a Kurdish state in southeast Turkey and maybe, mayyyybe an Assyrian state as well.
The British have been making since the start of the war a lot of promises to a lot of people, often conflicting ones... Greeks, Irish, Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Jews. Some of them will be cheap to fulfill, others not so much. The ovewhelming British concern is probably still control of the straits. Which is... complicated to say the least when being pressed by the US to accommodate to some degree Soviet concerns as well.
France - At the minimum wants all its Syrian land back and increased protection for it. In addition I feel like France wants to make up some prestige and concessions, border adjustments, etc. against a defeated power are the way to accomplish that cheaply. Could France demand an Assyrian state in addition to a Kurdish on the belief they will be well positioned to influence said states from their Syrian and Lebanon holdings.
An Assyrian state would be at the cost of Iraq, which is a British client. Of course the British have made conflicting promises to Assyrians, Kurds and Arabs and the three groups don't exactly love each other...

Greece - It has been discussed to death already on this board but broadly Greece wants at a minimum European Constantinople, more defensible Smyrna , probably chunks of Caria, Balikesir, and Cannakale. In addition they will want reparations, forced population exchanges in acquired territories; given the demographics at this point ethnic cleansing would be the more appropriate term; limits on the Turkish navy, air force and army in that order and finally some sort of iron clad acknowledgment from the Turkish Head of State that all territories are Greek and Turkey renounces all claims to them.
Greece depending on whom you ask could have demands going from the extreme, to far less grandiose plans. Frex the map below, courtesy of Konstantinos Travlos the original from Dousmanis book in the 1920s, was what Victor Dousmanes was proposing in late 1921. Now the not so good general is still around in 1942, well learned, doesn't have the failures of 1921-22 on his back and is anything but shy about writing. Of course he's also out of the army since 1917 so its questionable how seriously he's taken by the current generation of Antivenizelist politicians. So he will be likely proposing something like this to anyone willing to hear...

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Cakmak is pragmatic yes; but his issue is that to get any less than what Greece wants he needs not only to convince everyone else that it is reasonable and fair but ALSO he needs the USA, UK, and France to prevent Greece launching a continuation war as well. It does Cakmak no good if he makes a peace treaty with the US/UK alliance only for Greece to use lend lease to launch attacks in Smyrna against a front that will now be devoid of German troops, equipment and resupply.
Now we are running ahead here. I'll note that between May 1943 and January 1944 German divisions in the Balkans went up from 11 to 25....
 
The ovewhelming British concern is probably still control of the straits.
So, Churchill and the Foreign Office, may fall back to the default/traditional British position, regarding the control of the straits... I.e. that they should be under the control of a minor power and one that might be depending/allied to Britain...
 
So, Churchill and the Foreign Office, may fall back to the default/traditional British position, regarding the control of the straits... I.e. that they should be under the control of a minor power and one that might be depending/allied to Britain...
Basically Greece and not the USSR. Also Churchill should be more Pro Greek than the others except on the topic of Cyprus.
 
Since I don’t read Greek, can somebody translate what the light blue area is? I’m guessing it’s an area to possibly annex but It feels ridiculous to distinctly separate that after the rest of the map. It seems to be about where Ankara is but I’m not sure.
 
Since I don’t read Greek, can somebody translate what the light blue area is? I’m guessing it’s an area to possibly annex but It feels ridiculous to distinctly separate that after the rest of the map. It seems to be about where Ankara is but I’m not sure.
Ankara is further to the east, at the right end of the crop, outside the blue area, the not-border follows the Sakarya river. Light blue is supposed to be "zone of military occupation" with dark blue "zone of political occupation".
 
Basically Greece and not the USSR. Also Churchill should be more Pro Greek than the others except on the topic of Cyprus.
Ironically, Constantinople can drag Cyprus closer to Greece.
In the 1940's both the West and the Soviets in their efforts to conclude the war(s) and build the UN, were generally turning to the fundamental principles in order to legitimise their ventures.
Therefore if the US decides that the USSR shouldn't have any kind of control over the Straits, it is highly likely to sponsor the Greek control over the City. The only way to do that against the Soviets is to play the card of the Greek national integration (and the "legitimate" Greek right to safety). But they cannot play that card without putting Cyprus in the equation.
 
Turkey may want peace. Turkey may want a status quo ante bellum peace.

What Turkey is going to get is what Italy got OTL: a demand for unconditional surrender to the Allies and declaration of war on Germany. If they're lucky.

For one thing, Turkish conduct in the war has been... not good. The Allies have plenty of evidence of Turkish war crimes, which means that they want Turkish leaders under arrest. IOW, regime change,

OTL, Italy wiggled past that - they got rid of Mussolini and the royal government stayed on. But they did have to surrender, and IMO, TTL Turkey is much deeper in the ---- than OTL Italy.

But this is all just speculation; what "actually" happens is all up to the author.
 
Turkey may want peace. Turkey may want a status quo ante bellum peace.

What Turkey is going to get is what Italy got OTL: a demand for unconditional surrender to the Allies and declaration of war on Germany. If they're lucky.

For one thing, Turkish conduct in the war has been... not good. The Allies have plenty of evidence of Turkish war crimes, which means that they want Turkish leaders under arrest. IOW, regime change,

OTL, Italy wiggled past that - they got rid of Mussolini and the royal government stayed on. But they did have to surrender, and IMO, TTL Turkey is much deeper in the ---- than OTL Italy.

But this is all just speculation; what "actually" happens is all up to the author.
Yep I agree with the assessment. Turkey won't agree to unconditional surrender while the allies will demand it for differing reasons (Greece for more clay and the USSR for more SSR land). Also the Turkic populus prob won't let that happen and depose cakmak.
 
Is Greek European Constantinople/Russian Asian Constantinople possibly on the table here?
At this point just about anything is possible, but I think Constantinople goes to whoever has troops in the city when the peace deal is inked. Which is likely to be the Western Allies in general and the Greeks in particular baring a massive soviet naval invasion which seems unlikely in the given time period to say the least.

In my mind it’s advantageous to both the Greeks and the west to present it as a bit of a Fait Accompli to the Soviets. The Greeks are already there, they stubbornly refuse to leave, and we refuse to help you remove them. If you really want to try to take it by force you can, but we’d be honor bound to help them. It would be a bit of brinkmanship but I don’t think the Soviets want to go to war with a nuclear armed west no matter how much they want Constantinople. Especially if the West offers some form of treaty guaranteeing freedom of movement through the straits.
 
At this point just about anything is possible, but I think Constantinople goes to whoever has troops in the city when the peace deal is inked. Which is likely to be the Western Allies in general and the Greeks in particular baring a massive soviet naval invasion which seems unlikely in the given time period to say the least.

In my mind it’s advantageous to both the Greeks and the west to present it as a bit of a Fait Accompli to the Soviets. The Greeks are already there, they stubbornly refuse to leave, and we refuse to help you remove them. If you really want to try to take it by force you can, but we’d be honor bound to help them. It would be a bit of brinkmanship but I don’t think the Soviets want to go to war with a nuclear armed west no matter how much they want Constantinople. Especially if the West offers some form of treaty guaranteeing freedom of movement through the straits.
Tbf the USSR also don't have nukes at that point and won't contest it other than demanding concessions from the WAllies, and I do think some sort of concession will occur.

Tbf how would Israel be seen by jordan-iraq, Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia? I don't think they'll be received well and I think we'll see israel pop up anyways. Kurdistan and Assyria also should have different opinions than the Arab nations too.
 
Ironically, Constantinople can drag Cyprus closer to Greece.
In the 1940's both the West and the Soviets in their efforts to conclude the war(s) and build the UN, were generally turning to the fundamental principles in order to legitimise their ventures.
Therefore if the US decides that the USSR shouldn't have any kind of control over the Straits, it is highly likely to sponsor the Greek control over the City. The only way to do that against the Soviets is to play the card of the Greek national integration (and the "legitimate" Greek right to safety). But they cannot play that card without putting Cyprus in the equation.
Personally any additions to Greece will put the Cyprus question back to the spotlight and I think if Cyprus is given to Greece near end of WWII then things would go well for all sides, but if it happens in like the 60s to 70s where Britain is sad over the loss of empire then things would go very differently.
The US is not yet paranoid of the Soviet Union... it does not mean they won't be at the time of the final peace settlement. Another possible if limited factor. Henry Morgenthau Jr just happens to be secretary of the treasury. And Henry Sr just happened to be American ambassador to the Ottoman empire at the time of the 1915 genocide, one of its most vocal opponents and founder of Near East Relief.
I don't think Turkey would get the morganthau plan as everyone thought it's insane (and basically colonialism) but maybe we'd get a more harsh us hopefully? I can see the US agreeing to Greek, British and French wants more readily than what we were thinking. Maybe the us would be iffy about adjustments to Ionia or Caria but giving the international areas (excepting Asiatic Istanbul) to Greece would make sense, and would probably be the mediator between Greece and the UK on the issue of Cyprus.
The British have been making since the start of the war a lot of promises to a lot of people, often conflicting ones... Greeks, Irish, Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Jews. Some of them will be cheap to fulfill, others not so much. The ovewhelming British concern is probably still control of the straits. Which is... complicated to say the least when being pressed by the US to accommodate to some degree Soviet concerns as well.
The Arabs are probably going to be the most spurned out of all the actors (considering Israel will appear) and Iraq and Jordan will forcibly fuse themselves together and fight Israel and the new breakout states in the region, with probably dreadful consequences to the Arab world.
 
Part 122
Epirus, June 14th, 1943

Konitsa was liberated by the Greek army. The Epirote front was something of an afterthought for both sides, a single Greek army corps of three infantry divisions and five much smaller Italian divisions and Albanian auxiliaries on the other side, with the Italians also having to deal with thousands of partisans of the Greek army of the interior in their rear.

Thessaloniki, June 14th, 1943


Maximilian Von Weichs took over command of Heeresgruppe E, the Wermacht command of all German troops in the Near East from Erwin Rommel. Rommel would be taking command of the newly reformed Heeresgruppe B i Italy.

Sicily, June 19th, 1943

Five weeks of fighting had reduced the Italian defenders and the four German divisions that had rushed to their aid to the north-east of the island in a line anchored by mount Etna. Now the Allies attacked the Etna line in turn, with the British 8th army attacking from the west and the US 7th army from the south. Between them the two Allied armies had 359,000 men and 600 tanks in ten divisions. But Messe's troops were hardly out of the fight yet. Just over the next six days they would launch no fewer than twenty-four counterattacks.

Solomon islands, June 21st, 1943

US marines begun landings in New Georgia. Two days later further landings would take place in Trobriand islands. Rendova island would follow on June 30.

Ionia, June 24th, 1943

The anticipated Allied invasion of Gallipoli and a renewed offensive in Ionia, had led to the concentration of over a quarter million Turkish soldiers and three German divisions to meet it. With the evaquation of the US 7th Army from Ionia, the Turkish 1st Army now found itself enjoying substantial numerical superiority over the Greek Asia Minor Army. The Turkish general staff was not the kind of men to let such a possible opportunity go to waste. The 1st army went to the attack.

Palazzo Venetia, Rome, June 25th, 1943

Benito Mussolini was being faced with increasing internal trouble for the past few months. The invasion of Sicily, despite the stubborn defense put up by the Italian army for the past seven weeks had turned things from trouble to outright crisis. It was clear to most people who counted within Italy that the war was not going well for the Axis. The invasion of Sicily had brought forth the realization that the situation was even worse for Italy in particular which was being faced with outright disaster. But Mussolini had not budged to the increasing pressure from the the chief of the armed forces Vittorio Ambrosio, the king and even within the fascist party to leave the German alliance and seek peace with the Allies. He had not, or was not able, though to take decisive action against the supporters of peace either, vaguely promising the king to arrange peace with the Allies by mid September. Under increasing pressure he had been forced to call the Grand Fascist Council in hopes of securing its support for the continuation of his policies and most importantly his continuing control of the state. But the council had just let the plots underway to overthrow him by the king, the army and Italo Balbo on one side and within the fascist party by Dino Grandi and his own son in law count Ciano to manifest themselves. Both fascist quadrumvirs present Balbo and De Bono, the third quadrumvir alive De Vecchi was in Greek custody since the capture of Rhodes in November 1940, had openly sided with Grandi against Mussolini as had the king. And that was it. After over two decades the duce was no more in charge of Italy. He would be arrested on the same day. A new government would be formed under royal auspices. Of the the three candidates for prime minister Enrico Caviglia would be quickly eliminated since he was critical of fascism and the king wanted the fascist regime to continue and no liberal politicians returned to power. This left Badoglio and Italo Balbo. The king would had preferred the former as he thought he would be able to control him more easily. But in the end Balbo's ties with the royal family, his well established anti-German credentials and a reputation as more decisive than the old marshal had won the day.

Sicily, June 27th, 1943


Catania fell to the US 36th Infantry Division. By now it should be clear to the Italian and German defenders that Sicily was going to fall. But fighting still went on while the newly formed Italian Royal government under Italo Balbo loudly proclaimed it would continue fighting...
 
Sicily, June 19th, 1943
Any Greeks fighting at the Forge of Hephaestus?

Italo Balbo loudly proclaimed it would continue fighting
And so Mussolini falls... for now anyway,

So Balbo takes over instead of Badoglio? I spaced it that he was supposed to be dead in 1940. Could imply bad things for Italy if the cease-fire never materializes, which could imply worse things for Italy if Fascism holds on and a peace never materializes because of that. I wonder if the Royals will get deposed at gunpoint rather than the ballot-box as a result.

Ionia, June 24th, 1943
...and Turkey is re-invading Ionia... again, why do I get the feeling that they'll try to force a peace offer after they make their push there?

Sicily seems to be pretty well in allied hands at this point. I wonder if they'll push on to an invasion of Italy proper or, now that they've got the Med more or less locked down, push another front.
 
If Smyrna were to somehow fall, it would be an absolute disaster for both sides. The Turkish army would likely end up killing a whole lot of civilians, and the Greeks would become absolutely dead set on maximalist goals and punishing Turkey for it.
 
And so Mussolini falls... for now anyway,

So Balbo takes over instead of Badoglio? I spaced it that he was supposed to be dead in 1940. Could imply bad things for Italy if the cease-fire never materializes, which could imply worse things for Italy if Fascism holds on and a peace never materializes because of that. I wonder if the Royals will get deposed at gunpoint rather than the ballot-box as a result.
Tbf it does seem that it's very likely that the WAllies and the Nazis both fight the Italians and no ceasefire occurs meaning the liberal dude that popped up a few chapters ago would lead the liberals while a more Pro German racist should lead the other side and basically have a quasi civil war with backers.
and Turkey is re-invading Ionia... again, why do I get the feeling that they'll try to force a peace offer after they make their push there?
Tbf I see cakmak trying to get as much of Ionia as possible and saying 'can I have these please' only to be met with unconditional surrender which I'm pretty sure they'll be forced to accept, and cakmak basically has to see his country be torn into pieces because every allied power is done with turkey.
If Smyrna were to somehow fall, it would be an absolute disaster for both sides. The Turkish army would likely end up killing a whole lot of civilians, and the Greeks would become absolutely dead set on maximalist goals and punishing Turkey for it.
Tbf I don't see Smyrna falling that easy even though Ionia is undermanned rn. We'd prob see reinforcements from elsewhere coming to save them while the remainder just try to defend as competently as possible. Considering the Sicily offensive tho I do see the WAllies try to switch to a neapolitan army and Greece stalling their northern offensives to fight the Turks in Anatolia.

But if syrnma is taken then bursa and bithnyia is on the table at least not just occupied, and we'd see Greece try to take over the Turkic coast at least in both north and south. Maybe to Ankara too.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
The latest developments in Italy means that Germany is going to have to substitute a lot of Italian troops in the whole theater. I suspect that some , at least, of the four German divisions are going to be diverted from the offensive very soon.
 
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