Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

formion

Banned
Also they retreated from Adana in 1922 so they still hold it. That's why I would prefer if they keep the Adana area over Gaziantep.
The problem is that the French have already thrown the Armenians under the bus. The Armenian Legion has been disbanded and the Armenians are not allowed to arm themselves. Control of the Taurus mountain passes has been lost. The whole armenian population is currently in refugee camps in and around Adana and Mersin in terrible conditions and close to starvation. The countryside is controlled by irregular turkish bands.

Unfortunately, the rich and fertile Cilicia, an armenian homeland, has been written off.
 
Part 15 A peace to end all peace
Sivas, November 8th, 1921

The two weeks after the armistice had passed in frantic negotiations between the Grand National Assembly and the sultan's government, time was of the essence with the Paris peace conference about to begin. Negotiations were very much eased from the fact that Ahmet Tevfik pasha the Ottoman grand visier had already declared at the time of the London conference back in April that the government then in Ankara was the legitimate one. Ahmet Tevfik pasha would become the new grand visier. Nearly every other position would be covered by members of the Grand National assembly with Kazim Karabekir becoming minister of war and Rauf Orbay minister of marine. As had already been agreed Mustafa Kemal would head the delegation to the Paris peace conference.

League of Nations, Geneva, November 1st, 1921 (old calendar)/ November 14th, 1921 (new calendar)

The ambassador's conference of the League of Nations came to session to decide on the border between Greece and Albania that had been left open during the previous Paris peace conference. The point of contention was the area of North Epirus for the Greeks, south Albania for the Albanians that was claimed by both sides. Venizelos, on his way to Paris, had made certain to be present in person for the conference. It very quickly showed that there wasn't going to be an unanimous decision on the matter. But one was not needed. Out of the four great power ambassadors, those of Britain, France, Italy and Japan a majority would suffice for a decision. Just like in 1919 and 1920 Britain and France supported the Greek position and Italy the Albanian position. Japan was indifferent, though relatively sympathetic to Greece, and between backing the British position or backing the Italian position it was not difficult to choose the former, after all Venizelos was as usual very persuasive. North Epirus was assigned to Greece by a three to one vote of the ambassador's conference. What was not decided was the actual borders of the territory. The Italians having lost their case proposed that the actual border on the ground should be decided in the Paris peace conference that was about to begin. France not wanting to totally alienate them acceded to proposal and the British ambassador had to agree in order to keep the pretension of a united front between the Great War allies.

The Albanians with some Italian prompting rose up immediately at the news with over 20,000 fighters gathering in the Korytza/Korce area to defend it from the Greeks, the Greek E Corps had only 15,000 men as the bulk of the Greek army remained in Anatolia. But the Albanians were not the only ones rising up as Himara raised the Greek flag as soon as the news of the conference reached the town. Within no more than a week all the territory below the Aoos/Vjose river was in open war demanding union with Greece. A number of Greek officers most prominently general Konstantinos Gouvelis, a Royalist who had refused to return to the army, hence deniable by the Greek government, joined the rebels. After all the Venizelist army was one thing, fighting for North Epirus another...

Paris, November 8th, 1921 (old calendar)/November 21th, 1921 (new calendar)

The peace conference begun. Aristide Briand was there in person, after all the conference was taking place in his own capital. Lord Curzon was leading the British delegation and of course Venizelos was leading once more the Greeks. Mustafa Kemal had reached the city a fortnight ago. He had taken a ship from Samsun, still blockaded by the Greeks, to Varna. From Varna a train had brought him through Romania, technically still at war with his country, Hungary, Austria and Germany to the French capital. German nationalists at both Vienna and Munich had given him a hero's welcome, at Munich station he had had to endure a little moustachioed fellow giving a fiery speech in his honour, full of accusing "judeobolsheviks" of stabbing Germany and her true Aryan allies the Turks in the back. Well the man was apparently mad as hell and didn't even understand the Bolsheviks were allies of shorts these days, he'd been no more than a corporal in the war he thought dismissively, but was no doubt charismatic and he didn't mind the adulation. For the German nationalist press, even if he had lost in the end he was a hero who had fought a noble fight for his country, better that than meekly acceding to the Western allies diktats as their own governments had done. Besides any treaty was going to be better than Sevres preserving Turkish independence and her eastern borders. It was more problematic than the German newspapers made it of course, particularly given the territory likely to be lost west... [1]

Paris, December 13th, 1921 (old calendar)/December 26th, 1921 (new calendar)

Greece and Turkey signed a protocol agreeing to an exchange between their Muslim and Christian population respectively. Kemal had demanded a compulsory exchange claiming that any remaining Christian populations in Turkey would solely serve as a trojan horse for further territorial demands on Turkey in the future which was entirely unacceptable. Venizelos after complaining over the compulsory nature of the exchange, all proposals to this point called for voluntary exchanges had complied. It had looked too easy and it had been as the Greek then announced that Greece was willing to take in not only their nationals but also all Armenians remaining in Anatolia or evacuating Cilicia that wanted to settle into Greece. Then he had claimed that there had to be an equivalence between the properties of the Greeks and Armenians leaving Turkey and the Muslims living Greece, in effect one more argument in favour of the Greek territorial claims. Venizelos had then gone further asking for the Vallahades, the Greek speaking Muslims of Crete and Epirus and the Pomaks in Europe as well as the Circassians and Pomaks in Western Anatolia to be given the option to choose between remaining in Greece or leaving for Turkey. Many of the Circassians and Pomaks in Western Anatolia had formed irregular units that had fought for the Greeks in the war, or changed sides during its course. It wouldn't do for Greece to hand them over to Turkey now. League mandates on Turkish territory were excepted.

Fontainebleau palace January 22nd, 1922 ,old calendar/ February 4th, new calendar

The final peace treaty between the allied powers and Turkey was signed. Even though Kemal had negotiated most of it, he had resigned from his position in the delegation two days ago after he had backed for some of the items already agreed earlier. Whether it had been a ploy to throw the blame of the treaty on the Sivas government, which had instructed her delegation to sign, or a genuine attempt to get better terms would remain a subject of debate. [2]

Selected terms of the treaty of Fontainebleau

1. The Soviet-Turkish border as defined in the treaty of Moscow is confirmed. The Sevres provisions for Kurdist autonomy and Armenian independence are discarded.
2. Constantinople, including the Biga Sanjak becomes a League of Nations mandate for a 30 years period at which point a referendum will determine its future. Within the city the Turkish government to retain control of the Ottoman palaces.
3. Turkey recognises the independence of Syria, Iraq, Arabia and Palestine and the annexations of Cyprus and the Dodecanese by Britain and Italy
4. The Turkish-Syrian border is set to that of the Turkish-French agreement in March 1921. The economic concessions described in the treaty apply .
5. Greece annexes East Thrace, the Smyrna sandjak, the Aydin sandjak north of the Meander, the Magnesian/Manisa sandjak except from the kaza of Esme and the Balikesir sandjak west of the Mekestos/Susurluk river.
6. Italy gains a mandate consisting of the Mougla sandjak and the Cine and Bozdogan kazas of the Aydin sandjak. No later than 30 years a referendum will determine its future. The fate of the Soke kaza to be determined between Greece and Italy.
7. The straits zone is demilitarized, with the exception of League of Nations garrisons and open to all ships
8. The limit of the Turkish army in increased to 100,000 men exclusive of the gendarmerie which is limited to her 1914 size. Turkey cannot possess biological and chemical weapons tanks and aircraft. Her navy is limited to ships no larger than 10,000t. Yavuz to be dismantled but remains in possession of the Turkish government.
9. The Ottoman public debt to be split between Turkey and the states created from her Arab territories. The 1914 law abolishing the capitulations remains in power.

[1] Inspired for Ihring's "Ataturk in the Nazi imagination"
[2] Ismet tried the same at Lausanne, but here the Turkish position is rather worse.
 
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formion

Banned
You can see the different units of the Aydin Vilayet here


. The Ottoman public debt to be split between Turkey and the states created from her Arab territories.
I wonder what percentage of the Ottoman Public Dept they will end up paying. In OTL:

Final agreement on the debt issue was reached on the 13th June 1928. According to the agreement, Turkey accepted to repay 62% of the debts incurred before1912, and 76% of the debts incurred between 17 October 1912 and 1 November 1914. The other major debtors were Greece with 10.5% of the pre 17 October 1912 debt, and Syria and Lebanon with 8 % of the pre 17 October 1912 debt and10.2% of the debts incurred between 17 October 1912 and 1 November 1914
(

Edit: @Lascaris , by the point of the armistice, the Greeks should have taken possession of the majority of the ex-ottoman locomotives, freight and passenger cars. Do they return them, or move them back to Greece-in-Asia as spoils of war?
 
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RIP Yavuz

Not all of it. It's artillery remains per the treaty in the possession of the Turkish government...

Kemal meets Hitler, I presume? Uh, oh...

He's not impressed. Adolf is but then he was a fanboy in OTL as well.


Nope. My map shows what actually happened in North Epirus and Sokia. :p

You can see the different units of the Aydin Vilayet here



I wonder what percentage of the Ottoman Public Dept they will end up paying. In OTL:



I'm inclined to leave it at the percentages agreed in Lausanne. Yes Turkey has lost more territory TTL but was also in a much weaker negotiating position and gained an end to capitulations.
 

formion

Banned
I'm inclined to leave it at the percentages agreed in Lausanne. Yes Turkey has lost more territory TTL but was also in a much weaker negotiating position and gained an end to capitulations.
This... is... huge.
A much much smaller economy compared to OTL that has to pay the same debt while accomodating many more refugees.

As I am a sucker for economic history, would it be ok if during the next days I post on the differences in TTL turkish industry, infrastructure, agriculture and trade? I have been accumulating sources on the topic for some time now.
 
This... is... huge.
A much much smaller economy compared to OTL that has to pay the same debt while accomodating many more refugees.

As I am a sucker for economic history, would it be ok if during the next days I post on the differences in TTL turkish industry, infrastructure, agriculture and trade? I have been accumulating sources on the topic for some time now.

My working assumption is that TTL Turkish GDP is at this point about two thirds that of OTL. $391 million to be exact as opposed to $577 million in OTL 1923.
 

formion

Banned
My working assumption is that TTL Turkish GDP is at this point about two thirds that of OTL. $391 million to be exact as opposed to $577 million in OTL 1923.
To be honest, I don't know how to ascertain the GDP.

However, I have some notes on turkish industry, agriculture and trade. Perhaps they will be useful.

Industry

First of all, this new Turkey starts with fraction of its OTL industrial base. According to the source below, in 1915, 55% of all ottoman factories were located in Constantinople and 22% in Smyrna. So, one may come to to the conclusion that Turkey has lost 77% of its already limited industrial base.

In reality, it is actually worse. Pandirma-Panormos and Manisa-Magnesia were also minor "industrial" centers. Moreover, the majority of the modern carpet industry (the most valuable industrial export of interwar Turkey) belonged to Greeks in Sparta, Usak and Kula. I believe that when the greek army retires, the greek industrialists will move all their equipment to Smyrna - easy as they have access to railroad. In a similar spirit, I had stated in a previous post that the majority of Bursa's silk factories belonged to Greeks and Armenians - they would also move their equipment.

In OTL the Kemalists kickstarted the turkish entrepreneurial class by taking already existing businesses. Likewise, the armenian and greek capital in Constantinople banks is in TTL safe from appropriation (if members of the family are alive).

What industry is left to our 1923 Turkey? With the greek industrial equipment gone there are only antiquated looms in cottage industry across Anatolia. The steam-powered mills that produced pasta and flour are gone. The soap making industry is gone. Either the majority or at least a great percentage of the tanneries is gone as well. Interwar Turkey had to export hides and import shoes. Now they will have to import even more shoes. Most of the breweries and wine-making are gone as well. If the Armenians in Adana and Mersina dismantle their cotton factories as well, almost the entirety of the modern textile industry is gone.

If I had to make a guess based on what we know from OTL, this Turkey starts with at least 80-85% fewer factories. What is left is cottage industry that cannot compete with modern industry: european textiles, shoes, metal goods will flood Anatolia.

To pay for new industrial equipment, Turkey needs hard currency from exporting agricultural products. Yet in ttl turkish exports will be significantly lower compared to OTL. Agriculture is another topic though, so as not to write a wall of text.

What are your thoughts?
 
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formion

Banned
So what about mining and the new borders?

In TTL we know that the Italians have hit the jackpot with the strategic chrome mines.
The Italian Zone was in OTL the chief producing region until 1935. The "italian" mines along with the Burdur mines (turkish in both timelines) reached by 1943 a production of 80-90k tons, when the whole country produced 154k tons. Therefore, Turkey has lost at least half of its OTL most precious mineral export.

Sources:


Moreover, Turkey has lost to Greece most of its mercury deposits



Lastly, Italy has gained one of the two sources of emery in the world, with the other being the greek island of Naxos.

Why do I mention specifiically chrome, emery and mercury? Because during the interwar, these constituted the three of the seven most important export minerals in the turkish economy.
 
Industry

First of all, this new Turkey starts with fraction of its OTL industrial base. According to the source below, in 1915, 55% of all ottoman factories were located in Constantinople and 22% in Smyrna. So, one may come to to the conclusion that Turkey has lost 77% of its already limited industrial base.

In reality, it is actually worse. Pandirma-Panormos and Manisa-Magnesia were also minor "industrial" centers. Moreover, the majority of the modern carpet industry (the most valuable industrial export of interwar Turkey) belonged to Greeks in Sparta, Usak and Kula. I believe that when the greek army retires, the greek industrialists will move all their equipment to Smyrna - easy as they have access to railroad. In a similar spirit, I had stated in a previous post that the majority of Bursa's silk factories belonged to Greeks and Armenians - they would also move their equipment.

That is generally true but has also to be seen in perspective. First Turkish industry was not amounting to much in the first place in 1914, For the most part it was small cottage industries. Second anything situated in Western Anatolia was damaged to a greater or lesser extend if not outright destroyed in August-September 1922. Third most industrial workers in 1914 were Greeks and Armenians. It wasn't worth all that much to say you had the equipment to make carpets left behind for example when the actual carpet weavers were actually gone to Greece. I'm getting very much the impression that what industrialization happened in the 1930s was top down and if you see the list of factories also to a large extend military oriented.

I'd also note that when the Greek army pulls west, they cannot carry everything with them. And the Greek government does have a vested interest to see that the lower and middle class Christians that pull west are not destitute. If this means it needs to prioritize small farmers over factory owners and the factory owner needs to sell his factory instead or part of its equipment, well needs must and they'll be still vastly better off than OTL.

In OTL the Kemalists kickstarted the turkish entrepreneurial class by taking already existing businesses. Likewise, the armenian and greek capital in Constantinople banks is in TTL safe from appropriation (if members of the family are alive).

What industry is left to our 1923 Turkey? With the greek industrial equipment gone there are only antiquated looms in cottage industry across Anatolia. The steam-powered mills that produced pasta and flour are gone. The soap making industry is gone. Either the majority or at least a great percentage of the tanneries is gone as well. Interwar Turkey had to export hides and import shoes. Now they will have to import even more shoes. Most of the breweries and wine-making are gone as well. If the Armenians in Adana and Mersina dismantle their cotton factories as well, almost the entirety of the modern textile industry is gone.

Cilicia is not significantly different than OTL. Post that it is true that the Turkish government has less loot to give around. Less loot is different than no loot though. The areas beyond wartime allied control had about 2 million Christians, in these the Turkish government did as it liked. And they also get the landed property of yet more.


The 1919-22 war is of course something of a zero sum game. What the one side loses the other gains...

So what about mining and the new borders?

In TTL we know that the Italians have hit the jackpot with the strategic chrome mines.
The Italian Zone was in OTL the chief producing region until 1935. The "italian" mines along with the Burdur mines (turkish in both timelines) reached by 1943 a production of 80-90k tons, when the whole country produced 154k tons. Therefore, Turkey has lost at least half of its OTL most precious mineral export.

That's convenient for Italy. And complicating the relationship... after all unless population balances were drastically altered both the Turks and Italians are aware that the mandate will return to full Turkish control within a generation while it remains owned by Turkey in the interim...
 

formion

Banned
And the Greek government does have a vested interest to see that the lower and middle class Christians that pull west are not destitute.
I would think that the lower and middle class will depart in a manner similar to that of the East Thraciots, even if with less hurry. So, draft animals, a cartload of moveable wealth and in regions close to the border e.g. Prussa whole flocks of sheep/goats.

I do think that the logistics of moving textile factories are easy: the Sparta Greeks were pretty much all involved in the carpet industry, either in factory or cottage level. They weren't that many farmers or herders. So, for them the equipment is their livelihood. The same goes for Usak and Kula Greeks.

The only major farming populations in greek occupation outside of annexed territories are the Bithynian Greeks. Yet there, the distance to reach Makestos river or the Marmara ports is very small.

I'm getting very much the impression that what industrialization happened in the 1930s was top down and if you see the list of factories also to a large extend military oriented.
That it why I think a lot of consumer's products were made in the old christian factories. We see in the 5 Year Plans that the new industries focus on iron, cement, sugar, shipbuilding, military procurement. Yet where are the tanneries, the steam-powered mills for flour and pasta, the textile factories? Textile imports were a huge outflow of hard currency: in 1927 Turkey imported $29 million worth of textiles and only $5,2 million of machinery (the source of my previous post). Likewise, the Ottoman Empire was an importer of flour, while it seems that flour is not a major import product of the Turkish Republic.

So, if the focus was on developing the heavy/war industry, it makes sense that the light industry was the old one in Constantinople (55%) and possibly survived in Smyrna as well.

In TTL, Turkey needs first and foremost to build from scratch a modern textile industry (if even the Constantinople factories need hard currency to export to Turkey) to clothe its population, or else the textile imports alone will deplete all the hard currency and gold.

Question: In OTL Lausanne, Turkey was prohibited to raise import tariffs for a period of 5 years. Is it the same in TTL?

Something else that can be classified as industry that I forgot to mention: salt.
Most of Anatolia's salt was produced in the Phocaeas. In ottoman times, the OPDA was making a hefty profit of the salterns and had even mechanized the salt production. Now the turkish state has to develop the Salt Lake salterns and import equipment. At the same time, Greece has much more salt than she needs, so it can become a nice export product. In OTL, the 13 million people Turkey exported 20-50k tons of salt per year during the interwar.




Third most industrial workers in 1914 were Greeks and Armenians. It wasn't worth all that much to say you had the equipment to make carpets left behind for example when the actual carpet weavers were actually gone to Greece.
That is very true! The Anatolian industry was devastated by the departure of the christian workers. Yet, it didn't collapse entirely. For example the carpet production was halved compared to 1913, but even so the carpet exports constituted a 3,5-4% of the value of the total exports.

The Constantinople mandate is it an independent state or an autonomous part of Turkey? Does Turkey control its customs offices and does the city pay taxes to Sivas? Or do they have a separate currency etc?
 
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Very, very fascinating TL! I’ve often wondered about what would happen in the long run if Greece won this particular war, so I’m excited to see how the peace works out for them and Turkey both.

One odd knock on effect of this victory, in an area I’m rather familiar with, is in Greek Macedonia. The Slavic minority there was heavily affected by the OTL Greek Anatolian population movements because most of them were settled in the region, where they became vastly outnumbered in their homelands. Here that migration doesn’t happen, so rural Macedonia remains more Slavic in character proportionally speaking. That could affect future potential uprisings in the region like the ones in OTL WWII, because the rebels might be able to seize power more easily there at first.
 
Very, very fascinating TL! I’ve often wondered about what would happen in the long run if Greece won this particular war, so I’m excited to see how the peace works out for them and Turkey both.

One odd knock on effect of this victory, in an area I’m rather familiar with, is in Greek Macedonia. The Slavic minority there was heavily affected by the OTL Greek Anatolian population movements because most of them were settled in the region, where they became vastly outnumbered in their homelands. Here that migration doesn’t happen, so rural Macedonia remains more Slavic in character proportionally speaking. That could affect future potential uprisings in the region like the ones in OTL WWII, because the rebels might be able to seize power more easily there at first.

Need to consult my notes on the exact number, but the Bulgarian-Greek population exchange happens on schedule, it predates the POD, this one involved about 53,000 people going to Bulgaria and 49,000 coming to Greece and on top of that Caucasus Greeks and Asia Minor exchangees are also settled there. In total something like 250-300,000 Greeks are settled in Macedonia. A small number of Muslims, about 30,000 (Greek speaking Vallahads, Albanians and Pomaks) also remain in Macedonia.
 

Lexijag

Banned
The one suprise I have is that with the overwhelming Greek victory Greece did not take significantly more land. With perhaps an exodus of Turks to the turkistan area or Russia
 

formion

Banned
If I may, some food for thought on agriculture and trade: The OTL main exports products of Turkey were tobacco, cotton, dried figs, raisins, hazelnuts, valonia, opium, carpets , oil seeds and eggs.
https://books.google.com/books/about/Commerce_Yearbook.html?id=dF8yJDg-u54C Here we can see the import/export of 1927 and 1928. Any sums of money mentioned below reflect to these years.

Total exports in OTL 1927 were $81 million and in 1928 $88 million.

Let me be clear, I have no knowledge at all on turkish egg production. Opium and heroin was mostly produced in Central Anatolia. Hazelnuts were produced on the Black Sea coast. So, Turkey has retained basically 100% of these export products.

Valonia were acorns of the oak Quercus macrolepis that produced tannins used in tanneries. The oak trees in question were located in the Aegean coast and mostly in the area from Pergamon to the Dardanelles. So, Turkey lost basically all the valonia production, while the Smyrna tanneries enjoy a steady supply, with the rest exported. Value of OTL exports: $1,9-2 million, all of it lost in TTL.

Source:FOREST AND THE STATE: HISTORY OF FORESTRY AND FOREST
ADMINISTRATION IN THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE

Dried Figs exports amounted at $2,2 million (1927) to $2,5 million (1928). Nowadays with fig plantations have been developed in other provinces but even today Aydin provides 85% of the total dried fig production. I think that in the 1920s, Aydin and Smyrna would have amounted at the very least for 90% of the production. Therefore, $2-2,25 million exports have been lost in the dried fig sector.

Cotton was another major export, but Turkey here is lucky to have retained its prime cotton region, Cilicia. However, if we take post-ww2 production into account we see that the greek and italian zones produced a 40%-50% of the turkish cotton. The percentage would have been the same or higher early on, somlets round it up to a 45%
In OTL Turkey exported $5,1-5,2 million raw cotton. That could mean that Turkey has lost roughly $2,3 million in TTL.


And damn it, I m out of time, but despite being brief I can back up my claims with sources if somebody asks

Raisins: Turkey loses 80% of its OTL production. In otl, there were $3,9-7,7 million exports. So, they lose $3,1-6,2 million.

Tobacco: 45-60% of the growing area is gone. Lets be generous and round it up in 50%. In otl there were $22,5-27,5 million tobacco exports. Turkey loses $ 11,25-13,75 million.

Silk: 1/3 of the production lost. Turkey loses 0,25-0,3 million.

Oil seeds: Pretty much all the rapeseed and other oil seed exports where from Thrace. $0,8-1,7 million lost.

Olive oil: 75% of the olive growing regions are in Greek and Italian hands. $5,2 million lost.

From my previous posts I could claim that Turkey loses half its otl carpet production, meaning $1,65 million and 1/2 of ore exports, meaning $1-2,2 million lost.

In total, if we take a snapshot on the 1927 exports, Turkey loses $ 29,45 out of $81 million or if we take a 1928 snapshot, Turkey loses $37,55 out of $88 million exports.
 
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