No Great Kanto Earthquake

The Sandman

Banned
From what I have gathered, the massive earthquake that leveled Tokyo in 1923 had significant effects on Japan throughout the next two decades due to the economic damage and such. So, what else would change if the earthquake does not occur?
 
I'm curious about that too.

It could've had political ramifications due to the economic shock and many Japanese at the time saw it as influenced by dark spiritual forces.
 
It certainly made an impact on a number of Japanese who witnessed it -- for example, it made something of a real psychological impact on a young Kurosawa, who said it helped him look at violence straight on.
 

Satrap

Donor
If I recall correctly at least 1 major IJN warship under construction had to be scrapped due to damage incurred and millions of barrels of oil were destroyed.
 
Damage to ships building basicaly destroyed the 8+8 naval building plan.

So if the earthquake doesnt happen, this may, in which case the Washington naval treaty could be very different.

However since earthquales dont go away, it will happen at some point. The later, the more powerful...
 
Firstly, the earthquake had no effect on the Washington Naval Treaty which had been negotiated almost two years earlier. The building of the battlecruiser Atago had been stopped by the treaty and she was thus left at Yokosuka and wrecked by the earthquake. Without the treaty, she would have already been launched. It had been planned to convert her like her sister ship Akagi into an aircraft carrier. After the earthquake, the slower Kaga was converted instead.

Secondly, can I repeat an earlier posting from https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=2780959#post2780959
At the start of 1923, the Japanese economy appeared to be in fairly good shape and no one doubted that the large loans taken out to pay for the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5 could be repaid on time and in full. Prospects had recently been improved by the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922, allowing a reduction in both taxation and government spending. In retrospect, there were some dangers as unlimited demand and lack of competition during WW1 had created a bubble as well as very rapid growth.

However, on 1st September 1923 there occurred the Great Kantō Earthquake which devastated the region around Tokyo. Suddenly, the economic outlook was transformed. New loans had to be negotiated at short notice from America at high cost. The earthquake became linked to the bursting of the WW1 bubble because the Bank of Japan extended special emergency loans to banks in the affected Kantō Region. Naturally banks brought all their pre-existing bad debts to the BoJ! To pay for all of this and due to reduced tax revenue, government spending had to be reduced, notably by reducing the size of the Army. As the BoJ eventually stopped supporting every bank with bad debts, the banking crisis had been only been postponed and occurred in 1927.

Now, Taisho democracy could be considered fully established from June 1924 when the government led by Kiyoura Keigo fell after defeat in an election and the new government extended the vote to all male citizens over the age of 25 in 1925. Kiyoura had had the support of the Genro and the bureaucrats but was defeated by the political parties of the Diet. This timing meant that Taisho democracy had to start by coping with the consequences of the earthquake. The less obvious consequences included attacks by the Seiyukai party on the governing Minseito for paying too much for the American loans, attacks on all politicians for having the BoJ pay out to their friends and the IJA beginning to organize a political movement to defend itself against further cuts.

Thus Taisho democracy would certainly have had a better chance of survival without the Great Kantō Earthquake.
 
Firstly, the earthquake had no effect on the Washington Naval Treaty which had been negotiated almost two years earlier. The building of the battlecruiser Atago had been stopped by the treaty and she was thus left at Yokosuka and wrecked by the earthquake. Without the treaty, she would have already been launched. It had been planned to convert her like her sister ship Akagi into an aircraft carrier. After the earthquake, the slower Kaga was converted instead.

Secondly, can I repeat an earlier posting from https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?p=2780959#post2780959
At the start of 1923, the Japanese economy appeared to be in fairly good shape and no one doubted that the large loans taken out to pay for the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5 could be repaid on time and in full. Prospects had recently been improved by the Washington Naval Treaty of 1922, allowing a reduction in both taxation and government spending. In retrospect, there were some dangers as unlimited demand and lack of competition during WW1 had created a bubble as well as very rapid growth.

However, on 1st September 1923 there occurred the Great Kantō Earthquake which devastated the region around Tokyo. Suddenly, the economic outlook was transformed. New loans had to be negotiated at short notice from America at high cost. The earthquake became linked to the bursting of the WW1 bubble because the Bank of Japan extended special emergency loans to banks in the affected Kantō Region. Naturally banks brought all their pre-existing bad debts to the BoJ! To pay for all of this and due to reduced tax revenue, government spending had to be reduced, notably by reducing the size of the Army. As the BoJ eventually stopped supporting every bank with bad debts, the banking crisis had been only been postponed and occurred in 1927.

Now, Taisho democracy could be considered fully established from June 1924 when the government led by Kiyoura Keigo fell after defeat in an election and the new government extended the vote to all male citizens over the age of 25 in 1925. Kiyoura had had the support of the Genro and the bureaucrats but was defeated by the political parties of the Diet. This timing meant that Taisho democracy had to start by coping with the consequences of the earthquake. The less obvious consequences included attacks by the Seiyukai party on the governing Minseito for paying too much for the American loans, attacks on all politicians for having the BoJ pay out to their friends and the IJA beginning to organize a political movement to defend itself against further cuts.

Thus Taisho democracy would certainly have had a better chance of survival without the Great Kantō Earthquake.

Apologies, I was posting from memory...yes, I'd forgotten they ended up altering a different ship
 
One apology deserves another

I confused Amagi, which was the battlecruiser being built at Yokosuka, with its sister ship Atago. There were actually four ships, Akagi, laid down 6th December 1920 at the naval yard in Kure, Amagi laid down 16th December 1920 at Yokosuka, Atago, laid down in Kobe at the Kawasaki yard at Kobe 22nd November 1921, and Takao, laid down at Mitsubishi's Nagasaki yard 19th December 1921. All were stopped by the Washington Treaty in February 1922 but Akagi and Amagi were much further advanced and were thus chosen to become aircraft carriers. When Amagi was wrecked, the battleship Kaga was converted and Amagi, Atago and Takao were broken up on the slips. Apologies for my error.
 
However since earthquales dont go away, it will happen at some point. The later, the more powerful...

Or they could happen some other place along the fault line. Perhaps at a distance and location that make its impact on population less or insigificant ;):)
 
Sadly, while I think the Taisho democracy could survive and prosper if the Kanto earthquake was spirited away... the econmy would still fall apart at some time. The Japanese had, as you said, a bubble going, and they had not yet employed scientific management to the degree they did after the war.

As an export economy, what would happen in '29 when the US economy started going down? I'm fairly sure that the military would suggest war, and desperate politicians might have listened.

Japan had the problem that basically all targets nearby where in the sphere of interest of the western powers or the Soviet Union.
 

The Sandman

Banned
Or they could happen some other place along the fault line. Perhaps at a distance and location that make its impact on population less or insigificant ;):)

Alternatively, the quake happens much earlier, or happens as a series of smaller quakes instead of one massive one.

Sadly, while I think the Taisho democracy could survive and prosper if the Kanto earthquake was spirited away... the econmy would still fall apart at some time. The Japanese had, as you said, a bubble going, and they had not yet employed scientific management to the degree they did after the war.

As an export economy, what would happen in '29 when the US economy started going down? I'm fairly sure that the military would suggest war, and desperate politicians might have listened.

Japan had the problem that basically all targets nearby where in the sphere of interest of the western powers or the Soviet Union.

Well, for starters, a shift to producing for domestic consumption. I think it's inevitable that Japan would try it as one method to circumvent the loss of the export markets.

Korea is also probably going to get much more attention, for the same reason. While Manchuria might still be seized, though, a stronger Taisho democracy is going to be better able to resist calls for open war with China.

And what are the chances of the Japanese trying to come to some arrangement with the Soviet Union, as far as finding a new market for their goods is concerned?
 
Sorry for the late reply.

A domestic economy only really work for countries rich in resources or with some beneficial financial situation such as the US Dollar being the reserve currency of the world.

Japan needs to export to be able to import, and she needs to import basically everything. This was why Manchuria was seized, not only to provide resources, but also a market.
 
Top