No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

You know, we might actually not see a second Balkan War here, at least not one started by Bulgaria given that instead of feeling fully cheated by "traitorous allies" they were stonewalled by the Great Powers, which would still generate a lot of resentment but it wouldn't be the same bitterness that would lead them towards fighting all their neighbors like OTL, instead I'm seeing Greece here as the one most likely to do it given what happened in Thessaloniki between them and the Bulgarians as well as wanting the remains of Albania.
 
You know, we might actually not see a second Balkan War here, at least not one started by Bulgaria given that instead of feeling fully cheated by "traitorous allies" they were stonewalled by the Great Powers, which would still generate a lot of resentment but it wouldn't be the same bitterness that would lead them towards fighting all their neighbors like OTL, instead I'm seeing Greece here as the one most likely to do it given what happened in Thessaloniki between them and the Bulgarians as well as wanting the remains of Albania.
Well, the Powers limited themselves to guarding the Straits until the peace treaty is signed and the borders are exactly the same as in OTL so why would Bulgaria feel much different than in OTL? The same, of course, applies to other League Members. As soon as the Powers are out, situation is back to OTL.

Edit: Just re-read the background of the 2nd BW. In OTL the Serbs violated both the pre-war agreements within the League and the post-war agreements brokered with the Powers’ participation and, basically, advised both the Powers and Bulgaria to take a hike. The Greeks sided with the Serbs because they had common interests in the transit trade and because there was a territorial dispute with Bulgaria. Formally, Bulgaria was insisting upon the pre-war agreements (which it was interpreting in its own favor) while Serbia was openly rejecting these agreements. So very little changed ITTL, except for the conflicting Russian vs. German & AH incitements, but I’m quite sure that the Balkan politicians were quite capable of making a mess on their own. 😜

As for Greece, certain things may happen on a congested schedule: the people in power are the same and their goals will not change.
 
Last edited:
Well, the Powers limited themselves to guarding the Straits until the peace treaty is signed and the borders are exactly the same as in OTL so why would Bulgaria feel much different than in OTL? The same, of course, applies to other League Members. As soon as the Powers are out, situation is back to OTL.

Edit: Just re-read the background of the 2nd BW. In OTL the Serbs violated both the pre-war agreements within the League and the post-war agreements brokered with the Powers’ participation and, basically, advised both the Powers and Bulgaria to take a hike. The Greeks sided with the Serbs because they had common interests in the transit trade and because there was a territorial dispute with Bulgaria. Formally, Bulgaria was insisting upon the pre-war agreements (which it was interpreting in its own favor) while Serbia was openly rejecting these agreements. So very little changed ITTL, except for the conflicting Russian vs. German & AH incitements, but I’m quite sure that the Balkan politicians were quite capable of making a mess on their own. 😜

As for Greece, certain things may happen on a congested schedule: the people in power are the same and their goals will not change.
So it's safe to say that the Second Balkan War will go the same as OTL?
 
So it's safe to say that the Second Balkan War will go the same as OTL?
Good question. Honestly, I did not decide, yet: have to congest the events which in OTL were spaced by the time and other events. This may make 2BW a part of a more complicated conflict. At that point I’m pretty much open to the suggestions.
 
Good question. Honestly, I did not decide, yet: have to congest the events which in OTL were spaced by the time and other events. This may make 2BW a part of a more complicated conflict. At that point I’m pretty much open to the suggestions.
The relationship between the Ottomans and Bulgarians would be very important to how things unfold.
 
The relationship between the Ottomans and Bulgarians would be very important to how things unfold.
Yes, but the whole mess can be quite complicated with “who is getting friendly against whom” changing along the line: everybody wants something from everybody else and the alliances can become quite fluid. There are Greek - Ottoman, Bulgarian - Ottoman, Greek - Bulgarian, Serbian - Bulgarian, Serbian - Greek, Bulgarian - Rumanian conflicting interests plus at some point some or all these interests may contradict to the interests of the Great Powers (which also may have different interests). And within the OE there are interests of the imperial government and those of the nationalists.
 
Last edited:
Yes, but the whole mess can be quite complicated with “who is getting friendly against whom” changing along the line: everybody wants something from everybody else and the alliances can become quite fluid.
Ultimately, geographically Bulgaria in particular depends on the Ottomans staying at least neutral towards them.
 
Ultimately, geographically Bulgaria in particular depends on the Ottomans staying at least neutral towards them.
Well, yes. The same applies to Rumania. However, in OTL both ended fighting against Bulgaria in the 2nd BW so I have some space for a maneuver within a reasonably realistic framework. 😉
 
Well, yes. The same applies to Rumania. However, in OTL both ended fighting against Bulgaria in the 2nd BW so I have some space for a maneuver within a reasonably realistic framework. 😉
Bulgaria was likened to Prussia. That seems to be accurate, since Prussia ultimately was defeated in a multi-front war.
 
Well, unlike Prussia, it was not self-sufficient for conduct of a prolonged war. To be fair, neither was Greece.
And probably neither is Serbia.
This whole thing is an orgy of land seizing from a weakened old empire, and marked by mistrust and desperation. That's the most fun part of it.
 
And probably neither is Serbia.
This whole thing is an orgy of land seizing from a weakened old empire, and marked by mistrust and desperation. That's the most fun part of it.
God, you are dark, I like you

If I remember correctly, didn't the Bulgars propose to the Ottomans for a dual monarchy after independence, but they never accepted because the Turkish government was too proud, would be kind of fun for that to happen, though nobody would be happy
 
God, you are dark, I like you

If I remember correctly, didn't the Bulgars propose to the Ottomans for a dual monarchy after independence, but they never accepted because the Turkish government was too proud, would be kind of fun for that to happen, though nobody would be happy
Bulgaria: together with you, we could rule the universe!
Sublime Porte: no
 
Good question. Honestly, I did not decide, yet: have to congest the events which in OTL were spaced by the time and other events. This may make 2BW a part of a more complicated conflict. At that point I’m pretty much open to the suggestions.
Would be interesting to see a Bulgaria that gets a bittersweet victory: They're able to actually keep their gains and annex Macedonia... But lose the same territory they lost to Romania from OTL because the Russians urged Romania to attack while they were distracted with the Greeks and Serbs, that way the Russians can strengthen their reliable ally in the region as well as satisfying enough of Bulgarian ambition that they realize they can't get better than this given the Great Powers would be displeased to say the least in case they look towards the Straits or attacking Romania.

Greece and Serbia are free game however and depending on how things go, Serbia can receive Albania as a treat during the peace treaty.
 
Crumbling Empire #3
420. Crumbling Empire #3

The difference between a calculated risk and rolling the dice can be expressed in one word: homework.
Georgette Mosbacher
“The earth would have been paradise if it hadn't been for the people."
“The worst defeat is when the winners don't know what to do with their victory.”

A. Davidovich
“Not the one who knows all the options for victory does not lose, but the one who knows all the options for defeat."
Harun of Agatsar
“I was well beaten myself, and I am better for it.”
Let no man surrender so long as he is unwounded and can fight.”
“In my profession you have to mystify the enemy.”

Bernard Law Montgomery
“We know more about war than we know about peace, more about killing than we know about living.”
“Leadership is intangible, and therefore no weapon ever designed can replace it.”

Omar N. Bradley


The Big Mess on the Balkans
1700953558275.jpeg

Rules of the game.
The war was, in theory, over and the Powers were inclined to let the leave the final settlement to the direct participants. With the understandable exclusion of what had to be excluded, namely, the issues which were directly impacting the Powers’ interests:
  • The Straits (which, by extension involved the whole Black Sea trade). A list of the interested parties pretty much amounted to “who is who in Europe” and all of them had been singing in a rare unison: “Straits belong to the Ottomans”. Not because all of them were too fond of the Sultan’s government but because the status quo, confirmed by the navigation treaty, was the best case scenario short of a permanent international occupation of which the interested parties had little enthusiasm. Bulgaria had to back off the coast of the Sea on Marmara to a new border which the Powers rather arbitrary defined as a straight line between Enos on the Aegean coast and Midia (Kıyıköy) on the Black Sea.
  • Adriatic coast. The list was shorter, being limited to Italy, Austria-Bohemia and, by somewhat different reason, Hungary. None of them wanted excessively powerful Serbia with an access to the coast and independent Albania blocking Serbian access to the coast looked as a good idea. Serbia was forced to evacuate the Albanian territory it was occupying and Montenegro, after a lot of whining and wailing, returned to the newly-created Kingdom o Albania city of Shkodër.

After this was done the Powers, seemingly prudently, removed themselves from the process leaving the locals to figure things among themselves. Ships of the international squadron left the Istanbul and now the countries of the Balkan League had to divide the conquered territories themselves, without foreign mediation, which was impossible because none of the winners in the First Balkan War was fully satisfied with its result.
1700953255288.jpeg


Local players.
  • Serbia did not gain access to the Adriatic due to the proclamation of a new state, Albania.
  • Montenegro was forced to leave the previously occupied city of Shkodër.
  • Greece did not annex Thrace and could not get Northern Epirus, which remained part of Albania
  • Bulgaria was dissatisfied with the claims of the Serbs to the whole of Macedonia, because according to the Serbian-Bulgarian treaty it was to be divided between the two countries.
1700954504227.jpeg

As a remedy for its “grievances” Serbia reneged on the pre-war agreement with Bulgaria, which determined their future boundaries, effectively sharing northern Macedonia. In case of a postwar disagreement, the area to the north of the Kriva PalankaOhrid line (with both cities going to the Bulgarians; red line on the map in previous chapter) had been designated as a "disputed zone", with the area to the south of this line assigned to Bulgaria. During the war, the Serbs succeeded in capturing an area far south of the agreed border, down to the BitolaGevgelija line (both in Serbian hands). At the same time, the Greeks advanced north, occupying Thessaloniki shortly before the Bulgarians arrived and establishing a common Greek border with Serbia.

When Bulgaria called upon Serbia to honour the prewar agreement over northern Macedonia, the Serbs, displeased at the Great Powers' requiring them to give up their gains in north Albania, adamantly refused to evacuate any more territory. The developments ended the Serbo-Bulgarian alliance and the border skirmishes started immediately.

Serious disputes also arose between Bulgaria and Greece. The Greeks did not get the Northern Epirus, which went to Albania, and wanted to reward themselves at the expense of South Macedonia and Western Thrace, claiming historical grounds for this. Naturally, this undermined the interests of Bulgaria. In addition, the Greeks and Bulgarians could not divide Thessaloniki. OTOH, Belgrade and Athens had many common interests, first of all, they wanted to divide Albania and Macedonia.

Foreign players.
1700969126731.jpeg

Bulgaria and Rumania asked for the Russian mediation in their border dispute but the result made Bulgaria unhappy because it involved the minor territorial concessions. The fact that Russia failed to protect the territorial integrity of Bulgaria made the Bulgarians uncertain of the reliability of the expected Russian arbitration of the dispute with Serbia. The Serbs were not too different: their position was that any concession would deprive them of the fruits of a victorious war. At that point the Russian government gave up any hope on a productive discussion with Bulgaria and declared that all previous Russian-Bulgarian treaties are null and void. To the Serbs it was also explained that from now on they are on their own. As far as the Russian diplomacy was involved, Rumania ended up being a sole reasonable partner to deal with. As a hint, which had been lost by Bulgaria, the Rumanian King Ferdinand was given a honorary rank of the Russian fieldmarshal.

Berlin and Vienna took advantage of the great-power aspirations of the elite and intelligentsia, primarily in Bulgaria, but also Greece and Serbia. Of course, when it was coming to Kaiser Wilhelm and the foreign politics, the results may be a little bit …er… “creative”:
  • He incited Belgrade to go to war with Bulgaria and even Greece, to take Thessaloniki and go to the Aegean Sea.
  • To Sofia he proposed to annex all of Macedonia.
Needless to say that neither Serbia nor Bulgaria was informed about the “unrelated” part of Wilhelm’s grand schema. The result was that each of them considered itself for a while a potential German sole partner. But, as soon as it became clear that Wilhelm is intended to limit himself to the good wishes, interest dwindled.

Karl I of Austria-Bohemia was more down to the Earth: he pushed Sofia to war, promising guarantees of territorial integrity, a cash loan and even the organization of gangs in Albania to attack the Serbs from the rear. This, being a practical offer, greatly helped to raise of the militant party in Bulgaria.

The war.
With diplomatic efforts being an obvious failure, Greece and Serbia signed a military alliance treaty. The agreement provided for the division of Macedonia between Serbia and Greece, the establishment of a common border between the states. A secret protocol on the division of Albania into spheres of influence of Serbia and Greece was also signed. Romania joined the union, because it wanted to take Dobruja away from Bulgaria, in addition, Serbia was supported by Montenegro.

Strictly speaking, Bulgaria found itself in pretty much the same situation as in 1912 with the main difference being that on the West instead of the Ottomans it now had been facing the Greeks and Serbs and on the East Russia was going to stay uninvolved, which would leave only Romania if it decides to join Greece and Serbia. While its government still was trying, however inefficiently, to avoid or at least to localize the conflict, the military had been actively preparing to war.

With the Romanian position unclear, the army leadership took a “calculated risk” [1] leaving on the Romanian border a small force of the newly-mobilized troops. The idea was to defeat Serbia fast by cutting their supply line with Belgrade on the North and then capturing as much territory as possible by advancing in the diverging directions.
1700958938940.jpeg

Against the Greeks only a weak force will be left. This front was going to be strengthened after the Serbs are defeated. Then the reinforced 1st army will be able to go on the offensive and capture Salonica. This plan was created by the Deputy of the Supreme Commander general Savov and Colonel Stefan Nerezov, Chief of the Operational Directorate of the General Staff.

As soon as it was presented, Savov's plan was criticized by the Chief of Staff of the active army, General Ivan Fichev, who warned that the troops were being deployed without the necessary concentration for a decisive blow and that the deployment of the base of two divisions (1st Army) north of Stara Planina would take them too far from Macedonia, reducing their influence on the main theater of operations. Fichev recommended concentrating the main blow against the Greeks before proceeding to the offensive on the Serbian front. Savov established the opposite order of action, focusing on the defeat of a stronger opponent - the Serbs. When dispersing the Bulgarian armies before the start of the operation, he relied on the cover-up from the Serbian command of the direction of the main strike.
1700969682886.jpeg

The Bulgarian offensive started on June 29 and was quite successful until … July 2nd when the opponents started counter-attack. Separate Bulgarian units and artillery were captured by the Serbs. Thus, on the approaches to Veles, the Serbs captured the 7th Bulgarian Division in full strength. At Zleta, the Serbs managed to stop the offensive of the enemy forces on the same day, and at night a significant part of the Bulgarian troops were surrounded and destroyed by powerful artillery fire. A significant part of the 4th Bulgarian Army was surrounded on the Sheep Field.

On the South by July 4th the Greeks forced the 2nd Bulgarian Army to retreat to the border and kept chasing it because as a result of the Savov’s “brilliant” plan the Greeks had a big numeric numeric advantage: the Serbs’ 2nd army had between 36,000 (as per its commander) and 80,000 (official Bulgarian source) with 175 guns while the Greeks had 117,861 men with 176 artillery guns. In addition, a big part of the Bulgarian 2nd Army were composed of completely untrained local recruits.
1700961970943.jpeg

The Bulgarian leadership expected that Vienna and Berlin would deter Romania from entering the war, with Austria itself attacking Serbia. But none of these hopes came true. On July 5, German Kaiser Wilhelm II warned Austria against interfering in the war, Italy also vigorously supported this position. The Habsburgs had to give in.

On 13 July General Mihail Savov assumed control of the 4th and 5th Bulgarian armies and proved to be a better tactician than a strategist. The Bulgarians dug into strong positions around the village of Kalimantsi, at the Bregalnica river in the northeastern Macedonia region. On 18 July, the Serbian 3rd army attacked, closing in on Bulgarian positions. The Bulgarians held firm, and the artillery successfully broke up the Serb attacks.
1700969923118.jpeg

At that point the Serbs, achieving their main goal of protecting Macedonia, had been quite satisfied with stabilizing front and leaving an active fighting to the Greeks. This allowed Bulgaria to send the 4th Army to the South.

Now the Greeks had been outnumbered but still advancing even if with the great difficulty. Their tactics was the “insane charges”, especially by the Evzones, which were usually successful even if they were causing the big losses among the attackers. In the late July the Bulgarian troops went on the offensive. The Greek army was exhausted and faced logistical difficulties, but resisted strenuously and launched local counterattacks. The front stabilized.

This, however, was of little importance because on July 10 Romania declared a war on Bulgaria and 80,000 men of the 5th Corps under General Ioan Culver invaded Dobruja. On the night of 14–15 July, the Danube Army under King Ferdinand crossed into Bulgaria at Oryahovo, Gigen and Nikopol. On 23 July, advanced cavalry forces had entered Vrazhdebna, a suburb only 7 miles (11 km) from Sofia. The Romanians and Serbs linked up at Belogradchik on 25 July, isolating the important city of Vidin. The Bulgarian rear was entirely exposed, no resistance had been offered, the capital was open to the invader, and the country's northwestern corner was cut off and surrounded. Romania did not count any combat casualties during its brief war. Its forces were struck by an outbreak of cholera, which cut down 1,600 men.

With practically no Bulgarian forces on the border, the Ottoman government jumped to the opportunity and launched an offensive with the troops it still had in its disposal. The main goal was to return Edirne. This was something of a comic relief: Edirne was abandoned by the Bulgarian garrison (4,000) on 19 July, but, since the Ottomans did not occupy it immediately, the Bulgarians re-occupied it the next day (20 July). Since it was apparent that the Ottomans were not stopping, it was abandoned a second time on 21 July and occupied by the Ottomans on 23 July. Minister of War Enver Pasha called himself the "Second Conqueror of Edirne” (the first being Sultan Murad I who conquered it in the XIV century) but this did not boost his popularity too much. Like the Romanians, the Ottomans suffered no combat casualties but lost 4,000 soldiers to cholera.

On all fronts, except for the Rumanian one, the civilian population suffered greatly: the whole cities had been destroyed if they had a “wrong” population and the same goes for the countryside.

Armistice.
As the Romanian army closed in on Sofia, Bulgaria asked Russia to mediate. On 20 July, via Saint Petersburg, the Serbian Prime Minister invited a Bulgarian delegation to treat with the allies directly at Niš in Serbia. On 22 July, Tsar Boris III sent a message to King Ferdinand via the Italian ambassador in Bucharest. The Romanian armies halted before Sofia. Romania proposed that talks be moved to Bucharest, and the delegations took a train from Niš to Bucharest on 24 July. The first meeting happened on July 30th. The delegations agreed to a five-day armistice to come into effect on 31 July. Romania refused to allow the Ottomans to participate, forcing Bulgaria to negotiate with them separately.

Peace Treaties

Bucharest

With the experience of the previous negotiations, this time some of the “grown-up” (Russia and Austria-Bohemia) had been present and this produced practical results: the final treaty was signed on August 10th.

Serbia wanted to retain all of Macedonia as far as the Struma river but Austrian and Russian pressure forced it to be satisfied with most of northern Macedonia, conceding only the town of Štip to the Bulgarians.

Unfortunately (for the Bulgaria) Wilhelm also decided to contribute to the process and with his support Bulgaria was left only with a single underdeveloped port of Dedeagac on the Adriatic. As Venizelos told to Bulgarian delegation, “Before [29] June, we were afraid of you and offered you Serres and Drama and Kavala, but now when we see you, we assume the role of victors and will take care of our interests only.”
1700884580969.jpeg

Macedonia was divided in three: Vardar Macedonia went to Serbia; the smallest part, Pirin Macedonia, to Bulgaria; and the coastal and largest part, Aegean Macedonia, to Greece.

Bulgaria thus enlarged its territory by 16 percent compared to what it was before the First Balkan War, increasing its population from 4.3 to 4.7 million people. Still, it was unhappy and after the treaty was signed Tsar Boris said “Ma vengeance sera terrible.” (My revenge will be terrible).

Romania enlarged its territory by 5 percent and Montenegro by 62 percent. Greece increased her population from 2.7 to 4.4 million and her territory by 68 percent. Serbia almost doubled her territory, enlarging her population from 2.9 to 4.5 million. The Montenegrins at Bucharest were primarily interested in obtaining a favourable concession from Serbia in the former Sanjak of Novi Pazar.

Constantinople
The Bulgarian and Ottoman delegations met on 6 September. They were left without the adult supervision but managed to do reasonably well even if it take longer to resolve fewer problems.
1700968842708.png

Resigned to losing Edirne, the Bulgarians played for Kırk Kilise (Lozengrad in Bulgarian). Both sides made competing declarations: Savov that "Bulgaria, who defeated the Turks on all fronts, cannot end this glorious campaign with the signing of an agreement which retains none of the battlefields on which so much Bulgarian blood has been shed," and Mahmud Pasha that "[w]hat we have taken is ours."

In the end, none of the battlefields were retained in the Treaty of Constantinople of 30 September. Bulgaria acknowledged Ottoman gains of Adrianople (mod. Edirne), Kırklareli and Didymoteicho and the surrounding territory.

Peace at last?
Well, the peace could happen if not combination of three factors:
  • Venizelos and his followers did not give up on the Megali Idea.
  • There was an obscure item in the treaty co-signed signed by the Powers and Ottoman government after the 1st war.
  • The Nationalist forces in Anatolia had been increasingly opposing Three Pashas government and the Sultan’s regime in general.

_________
[1] Fieldmarshal Montgomery wrote something to the effect that his American colleagues usually used this term to justify their screwups. 😉
 
Bulgaria thus enlarged its territory by 16 percent
why is it that Bulgaria usually gains territory even after losing wars

So Austria-Hungary is Austria-Bohemia now

The Nationalist forces in Anatolia had been increasingly opposing Three Pashas government and the Sultan’s regime in general.
Dieu sauve le Sultan
On all fronts, except for the Rumanian one, the civilian population suffered greatly: the whole cities had been destroyed if they had a “wrong” population and the same goes for the countryside.
Why can't the balkens stay one moment without genocide, get a grip people

Bulgaria: together with you, we could rule the universe!
Sublime Porte: no
Hmmm, I think I'd like to write that TL, though it would be a complete bullshit Otto wank
 
Top