Japan doesn't raise interest rates in late 1989

MrHola

Banned
In an attempt to deflate speculation and keep inflation in check, the Bank of Japan sharply raised inter-bank lending rates in late 1989. This sharp policy caused the bursting of the bubble and the Japanese stock market crashed. This eventually seeped through to 1990/1991, kicking off the so-called Lost Decade. So what if Japan, for whatever reason, decided not to go through with it? What are the odds of the Japanese economy humming along until, say, the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997? Would the Japanese economy take a nosedive - dragging the entire world along with it?
 
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If there is no Lost Decade, then Japan would have seen a major depression like the US in 1929 - stock market crashes, etc. It would have been much more devastating than the OTL event.
 

MrHola

Banned
As in 2008, eleven years ealier? That would've been...interesting. Mind you I'm a dork when it comes to economics, so there.
 
As in 2008, eleven years ealier? That would've been...interesting. Mind you I'm a dork when it comes to economics, so there.

I hope I'm not talking bs, it just is that if the bubble popped much more ceremoniously the economic results would have been traumatising.
 
Economics is understood by few and even morally reprehensible to others. Personally it makes little sense to go deep into debt or save nothing. It is even morally or religiously unacceptable for some (owing others, borrowing from others, charging interest). Yet macroeconomics is nothing like personal finance.

The one and only purpose of money is to act as a medium of exchange for economic transactions. The more money there is, the easier it is to exchange. Deflation is the ultimate evil, because it encourages hoarding and saving. If your money is losing value each and every day if you don't spend it (and why shouldn't it? as time passes, what one did is intrinsically worth less economically and arguably keeping the same value is giving government insurance) then companies must invest and expand to survive. Instead of sitting on huge piles of cash, with inflation companies must spend and expand and create jobs. Good for everyone.

Of course, it is not as simple as "print" more money. You cannot print so much so fast that companies and individuals have no time to make decisions or spend or invest their money before the money loses value. But it is 100% certain that deflating the money supply leads long term to economic contraction however immoral or blasphemous or personally unacceptable to some. On an individual level inflating the money supply or "printing" money is counterfeiting which is why at face value it is hard to accept.

It is clear that Ben Bernanke is one of the greatest unsung heroes of the last decade. America is rich and powerful and successful not just because of its culture and geographical isolation, but because America in the Western world is unique in understanding the purpose of money. One only need look at Europe and the "austerity" measures and compare it to the American rapid recovery to be convinced. Japan is another example. The only counter examples are from oil or resource rich countries who can make balanced budgets by digging something useful out of the ground. Yes, many people are still out of a job but all in all the recession was relatively light compared to the correction that was needed.

In summary it is clear that A. inflation is infinitely preferable to deflation or a deflationary policy and B. as much money as possible should be printed and as low an interest rate as possible without increasing real inflation (real being the amount of money actually changing hands and not sitting in bank accounts or under the mattress or anything). The government or central bank's one and only goal should be to create as much new money as possible to the point where hoarders and rich are forced to spend and invest to keep their wealth. It may be bad for savers and elderly and fixed income earners, but the long term success and examples (such as Japan) are clear.

I personally believe that America is successful because it is morally acceptable to start over again and again (get bankrupt again and again) and this is reflected all the way from the bottom to the top. The business cycle, startups and failed companies and even the divorce rate all contribute to the idea of trying again and again (and failing if you have to) until it works. This is a distinct economic advantage over other nations, bolstered however slightly by the inflationary policies of the Fed. The combination is irresistible and is what makes America a "superpower". You can have a fresh start and wipe the slate clean in America. Nepotism, connections and family influence are minimized compared to the rest of the world. Before anyone rants about how horrible America is one should compare to the rest of the world and draw appropriate conclusions.
 
In an attempt to deflate speculation and keep inflation in check, the Bank of Japan sharply raised inter-bank lending rates in late 1989. This sharp policy caused the bursting of the bubble and the Japanese stock market crashed. This eventually seeped through to 1990/1991, kicking off the so-called Lost Decade. So what if Japan, for whatever reason, decided not to go through with it? What are the odds of the Japanese economy humming along until, say, the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997? Would the Japanese economy take a nosedive - dragging the entire world along with it?

My take is the lost decade had multiple causes & the interest rate thing was influential in the short term, but without ir Japan still has a decade + of economic stagnation.

Economics is understood by few... ...macroeconomics is nothing like personal finance.

...

Indeed. I'm thinking that we are not yet to the edge of understanding macro economics. To use the example of medicine we are at the stage of exorcising evil spirits & bleeding off "Humors". Manipulating things like interest rates represents a conceit that we might actually have some sort of understanding & control.
 
:rolleyes:

Sure, everything is relative, but this is still far from true.

Possibly. It depends where and how. One may prefer Canada (I do) or a Nordic country but then the population is low. I am talking from the point of view of these barriers preventing opening a successful business (economics and stagflation being the theme). The good thing about the USA is there's almost fifty countries in one with a huge population base so if your plan does not work you can move.

[quote="Carl Schwamberger";]Indeed. I'm thinking that we are not yet to the edge of understanding macro economics. To use the example of medicine we are at the stage of exorcising evil spirits & bleeding off "Humors". Manipulating things like interest rates represents a conceit that we might actually have some sort of understanding & control. [/quote]

I actually think that the problem is too little action. Instead of cutting interest rates by a quarter or half a percentage point it should be up or down by full percentage points only. And novel ideas like negative interest rates should be attempted. Economies and people respond best to slight changes (avoid big booms or busts) but it's better to go all in or do nothing at all than make half measures.
 
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