How would a NATO invasion of Warsaw Pact go?

[bsmall0627]

There are so many alt histories on the Cold War going hot. However, they all seem to show Warsaw pact invading NATO. How would a NATO invasion of East Germany go? How far could NATO get before Warsaw Pact pushes them back? Will it go nuclear right away? Let’s say this occurs in 1985 and a hardliner is in power instead of Gorbachov.

 

[Derek Pullem]

There are so many alt histories on the Cold War going hot. However, they all seem to show Warsaw pact invading NATO. How would a NATO invasion East Germany go? How far could NATO get before Warsaw Pact pushes them back? Will it go nuclear right away? Let’s say this occurs in 1985.

WHY?
Seriously - Gorbachev is just taking the reins of power promising reform and the USSR economy is failing without the crutch of oil income. Why interrupt your enemy if he's making a mistake (at least from a military power perspective).
WHAT?
What are the aims of this war? "Liberation" of Eastern Europe? Not sure how many in NATO are going to sign up for that. I think you are going to need ASB assistance.

 

[alspug]

Whats interesting is that the Soviet Artillery would be very effective in blunting any attacks. The Soviet air forces and Warsaw Pact air forces would have a hard time fighting the deep strike Tornado's and F-111's. The F-15 and F-16's would do well wrestling for the control of the air but the sheer number of SAM's would make it expensive for both sides.

As far as tanks and infantry go the Warsaw Pact forces in 1985 are still capable of going toe to toe on a technological and tactical level. The NATO electronics advantage is beginning to show but the technology is not clearly superior.

I could see Germany being mostly "liberated" at huge cost but the arrival of armies from the Soviet Union would rock them back fast.

 

[Catsmate]

Badly.

 

[bsmall0627]

WHY?
Seriously - Gorbachev is just taking the reins of power promising reform and the USSR economy is failing without the crutch of oil income. Why interrupt your enemy if he's making a mistake (at least from a military power perspective).
WHAT?
What are the aims of this war? "Liberation" of Eastern Europe? Not sure how many in NATO are going to sign up for that. I think you are going to need ASB assistance.

Why it happens isn’t important in this scenario. Let’s say some military exercise in the Pact led NATO to believe they were planning to invade them.

 

[I lurk therefore I am]

There would be an awful lot of sunshine in Europe. Mostly instant.

Thing is, in order to carry out such an attack, it will require considerable mobilisation, which the Russians will not miss. Especially given the number of agents the KGB had in the western system at the time. Just look at how much warning Western Intelligence had for the Russian attack on Ukraine. The sort of build up required for a large scale invasion is not something that will go unnoticed.

Russian doctrine was to fight WW3 on NATO soil, not on Russian land, so the moment NATO began to mobilise, they would too, and would look to pre-emptively attack.

NATO doctrine on the other hand was defensive, to offset the great WP numbers.

 

[Monk78]

WHY?
Seriously - Gorbachev is just taking the reins of power promising reform and the USSR economy is failing without the crutch of oil income. Why interrupt your enemy if he's making a mistake (at least from a military power perspective).
WHAT?
What are the aims of this war? "Liberation" of Eastern Europe? Not sure how many in NATO are going to sign up for that. I think you are going to need ASB assistance.

Can we just play along please , this scenario is far more interesting than just another soviet invasion through Fulda gap etc
Plus it is only the benefit of hindsight that we see the start of Gorbachev of era as the start of reform and decline of the USSR but those of us who are old enough to remember ussr still posed a significant threat well into the late 80s
At any rate, I would request the members here to focus just on the military aspect of the scenario. Thank you.

 

[Lalli]

Why NATO would decide invade WarPac? Even if Reagan becomes crazy and decides attack, no one would obey him. NATO is defensive alliance not attack alliance. And everybody would realise that being very very bad idea.

Can we just play along please , this scenario is far more interesting than just another soviet invasion through Fulda gap etc

WarPac beginning such invasion is just more likely than NATO beginning that. And even that way it is not really likely. ForNATO you should literally put such amount of lead to morning coffee/tea of NATO leaders that they probably would succumb that.

And AH.com just prefer some rational explanations and plausibility of scenarios. Things just not happen without reason. And no one rational begin war when it would lead to destruction of known civilisation.

 

[Clandango]

I would suggest having individual countries doing the invasion, but besides for Germany very few had territorial claims in Warsaw Bloc countries. Hell, even if you have revolutions in some countries, it would be difficult for countries to get around Germany to invade or help anyone. As people say though, having some invasion is just going to get the Russians to start firing missiles or for the local armies and police forces to use this as an excuse to clamp down on the populace ad to divert their attention to invasion by Germans.

 

[Rinasoir]

Russian doctrine was to fight WW3 on NATO soil, not on Russian land, so the moment NATO began to mobilise, they would too, and would look to pre-emptively attack.

^That can not be overstated enough.

Part of why Able Archer '83 scared the shit out of the Soviets and nearly got us a WW3 was because it involved a similar, but smaller, mobilization.

 

[Monk78]

There would be an awful lot of sunshine in Europe. Mostly instant.

Thing is, in order to carry out such an attack, it will require considerable mobilisation, which the Russians will not miss. Especially given the number of agents the KGB had in the western system at the time. Just look at how much warning Western Intelligence had for the Russian attack on Ukraine. The sort of build up required for a large scale invasion is not something that will go unnoticed.

Russian doctrine was to fight WW3 on NATO soil, not on Russian land, so the moment NATO began to mobilise, they would too, and would look to pre-emptively attack.

NATO doctrine on the other hand was defensive, to offset the great WP numbers.

What about a cold start attack
NATO day 1-3 just conducts massive air strikes in Eastern Europe
Then ground attack starts from day 5 or so

 

[I lurk therefore I am]

What about a cold start attack
NATO day 1-3 just conducts massive air strikes in Eastern Europe
Then ground attack starts from day 5 or so

No such thing. You still need to build up aircraft, fuel, munitions etc at the bases beforehand, which will not go unnoticed.

Look at the burn rate of munitions in Ukraine, with the Russians failing to achieve air superiority and the Ukrainians not having much of an air force. A NATO/WP conflict would be like that, but on more steroids than a US wrestling promotion (or a East German Olympic team).

NATO would be relying on aircraft and munitions from North American to run the kind of air campaign needed to achieve air superiority and neutralise WP air defences. Again, that is not something that goes unnoticed.

And the Soviets still have a lot of intelligence access into the NATO system.

Add on, the moment the first aircraft crosses the border, the WP is likely start throwing chemical weapons on the business end of short range ballistic missiles at NATO airfields (or worse). Russia still has WW2 in living memory at that point. They are going to do everything they can to prevent what they see as a repeat.

 

[Lalli]

What about a cold start attack
NATO day 1-3 just conducts massive air strikes in Eastern Europe
Then ground attack starts from day 5 or so

Blitzkrieg in 1980's wouldn't work anymore. NATO should prepare in such way that WarPac would notice that and when NATO begins airstrikes Soviets and their vassals are ready. And whatever invasion is declaration of war and it will escalaste as nuclear war quickly.

 

[Normal for Norfolk]

There are so many alt histories on the Cold War going hot. However, they all seem to show Warsaw pact invading NATO. How would a NATO invasion of East Germany go? How far could NATO get before Warsaw Pact pushes them back? Will it go nuclear right away? Let’s say this occurs in 1985 and a hardliner is in power instead of Gorbachov.

My understanding is that the West German army which was the largest single element of NATO ground forces did not have the logistical support to be a an offensive force relying largely on civilian infrastructure. The US Army as the next largest didn't formerly update it's doctrine until 1986 to put an increased emphasis on counter offensive operations which included potentially limited movement across the inner German border.
Practically as well as other posters have pointed out politically it's a complete non starter.

 

[Normal for Norfolk]

Whats interesting is that the Soviet Artillery would be very effective in blunting any attacks. The Soviet air forces and Warsaw Pact air forces would have a hard time fighting the deep strike Tornado's and F-111's. The F-15 and F-16's would do well wrestling for the control of the air but the sheer number of SAM's would make it expensive for both sides.

As far as tanks and infantry go the Warsaw Pact forces in 1985 are still capable of going toe to toe on a technological and tactical level. The NATO electronics advantage is beginning to show but the technology is not clearly superior.

I could see Germany being mostly "liberated" at huge cost but the arrival of armies from the Soviet Union would rock them back fast.

Do you not think the 19 Soviet Divisions already in East Germany, the 5 in Czechoslovakia & the 2 in Poland not allowing for the 13 Polish (excluding airborne & naval infantry) , 10 Czechoslovakian & 6 East German of course would be sufficient to deal with an inferior number of NATO divisions? The only way to change the conventional land balance would be a mass organised uprising in the Soviet satellite states which included their militaries changing sides as coherent entities.

 

[RanulfC]

Can we just play along please , this scenario is far more interesting than just another soviet invasion through Fulda gap etc
Plus it is only the benefit of hindsight that we see the start of Gorbachev of era as the start of reform and decline of the USSR but those of us who are old enough to remember ussr still posed a significant threat well into the late 80s
At any rate, I would request the members here to focus just on the military aspect of the scenario. Thank you.

It IS an interesting scenario, but you'd need vastly different circumstances to turn the defensive NATO into a offensive NATO. Being defensive in nature was what NATO forces in Europe were built for and going offensive with them really isn't possible. (A big reason REFORGER was needed as NATO forces were expected to hold the line until those forces allowed a more offensive stance) As stated NATO going on the offensive without the build up would go very, very badly and with the build up would likely be facing similar build ups on the Pact side. You'd likely have to start with nuclear strikes to open holes for the NATO forces and the Pact would likely used nuclear weapons on those gaps to ensure NATO couldn't use them as well as strikes against NATO bases and cities. It likely goes global really, really quickly.

Randy

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Badly.

Brightly. Very bright. Sort of sun-shiny

 

[I lurk therefore I am]

Can we just play along please , this scenario is far more interesting than just another soviet invasion through Fulda gap etc

It is interesting, where interesting is defined as 'Oh god, oh god we're all going to die'.

The likelihood it ends up with an exchange of instant sunshine is very high to say the least.

 

[Monk78]

It is interesting, where interesting is defined as 'Oh god, oh god we're all going to die'.

The likelihood it ends up with an exchange of instant sunshine is very high to say the least.

If NATO launches airstrikes first wouldn’t WP just respond with SS20 strikes all over Western Europe?

 

[Insane Ranter]

It is interesting, where interesting is defined as 'Oh god, oh god we're all going to die'.

The likelihood it ends up with an exchange of instant sunshine is very high to say the least.

We finally really did it. [pounds the sand; angrily] YOU MANIACS! YOU BLEW IT UP! AH, DAMN YOU! GOD! DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL! [camera pans to reveal the half-destroyed Statue of Liberty sticking out of the sand] --- Georgia Taylor years later.... (Planet of the Apes)

Not really but I agree lots and lots of Sunshine!!!