How Long Does World War II In Europe Last If Romania Doesn't Switch Sides

AbeLincoln1865

AbeLincoln1865

On August 23rd 1944, King Michael of Romania staged a coup against dictator Ion Antonescu and left the Axis to join the Allies. According to Heinz Guderian in his book Panzer Leader (Page 367), he had wanted to move the 4th SS Division from Yugoslavia to Bucharest to prevent this, but was unable to convince Alfred Jodl. In addition, Hitler had warned Antonescu against visiting the King if summoned, as this was how Mussolini had been arrested. Antonescu didn't listen and like Mussolini, he was removed from power. So what if both of these events had turned out differently and Romania stayed an ally of Germany? While the Soviets were already taking control of Romania, most of the country including the vital oil fields at Ploesti were still in Axis hands. Finally, I imagine the Romanian Air Force remaining loyal to the Axis would be a bit of a boon to Germany. How long do you guys think the war can go on?
 
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Deleted member 1487

AbeLincoln1865 said:
On August 23rd 1944, King Michael of Romania staged a coup against dictator Ion Antonescu and left the Axis to join the Allies. According to Heinz Guderian in his book Panzer Leader (Page 367), he had wanted to move the 4th SS Division from Yugoslavia to Bucharest to prevent this, but was unable to convince Alfred Jodl. In addition, Hitler had warned Antonescu against visiting the King if summoned, as this was how Mussolini had been arrested. Antonescu didn't listen and like Mussolini, he was removed from power. So what if both of these events had turned out differently and Romania stayed an ally of Germany? While the Soviets were already taking control of Romania, most of the country including the vital oil fields at Ploesti were still in Axis hands. Finally, I imagine the Romanian Air Force remaining loyal to the Axis would be a bit of a boon to Germany. How long do you guys think the war can go on?
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Maybe another couple of months. It would save 6th army and keep the Soviets seriously occupied in occupying the country, while gaining no benefit from having Romanians on their side fighting. There is a reason the Allies were willing to allow them to flip, the advantages were pretty significant.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jassy–Kishinev_Offensive#Aftermath
The German formations suffered significant irrecoverable losses, with over 115,000 prisoners taken, while Soviet casualties were unusually low for an operation of this size. The Red Army advanced into Yugoslavia and forced the rapid withdrawal of the German Army Groups E and F from Greece, Albania, and Yugoslavia to avoid being cut off. Together with Yugoslav partisans and Bulgaria, they liberated the capital city of Belgrade on 20 October.
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Including the 100k KIA the Germans experienced as well, that was around 225k largely veteran troops lost, plus of course the Romanian military. Hungary too would be covered, while would Axis positions in the Balkans in general. Of course the Germans would suffer losses in combat, both killed and captured, so potentially it's more like half would get out given the collapse that happened IOTL in August at the front.

The 25,000-strong German presence around Ploiești, consisting mostly of flak troops and their security companies, was at first locked in a stalemate with the Romanian 5th Territorial Corps, which had a similar numerical strength
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There was also the loss of very important air defense troops around the oil fields of Romania that would have been extremely useful elsewhere and were highly experience and very well equipped, having IIRC about 5-10% of total German FLAK resources.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Tidal_Wave#German_air_defenses
In June 1942, 13 B-24 Liberators of the "Halverson project" (HALPRO) attacked Ploiești. Though damage was small, Germany responded by putting strong anti-aircraft defenses around Ploiești. Luftwaffe General Alfred Gerstenberg built one of the heaviest and best-integrated air defense networks in Europe. The defenses included several hundred large-caliber 88mm guns and 10.5 cm FlaK 38 anti-aircraft guns, and many more small-caliber guns. The latter were concealed in haystacks, railroad cars, and mock buildings.[12] The Luftwaffe had three fighter groups within flight range of Ploiești (52 Bf 109 fighters and Bf 110 night fighters, and some Romanian IAR-80 fighters).[4] Gerstenberg also counted on warnings from the Luftwaffe signals intelligence station in Athens, which monitored Allied preparations as far away as North Africa.
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AFAIK there was the equivalent of a FLAK division in Ploesti as of 1944:
http://www.ww2.dk/ground/flak/5fladiv.htm

There was another at the front:
http://www.ww2.dk/ground/flak/15fladiv.htm
It absorbed the survivors of the 5th FLAK division that escaped from Romania and fell back into Hungary. So two FLAK divisions would have been spared a severe mauling/destruction in Romania if Romania didn't flip.
Each had several hundred AAA weapons, both heavy and light, plus attached Romanian units.

I say up to 2 months is optimistic, but possible, though probably would only delay things about a month thanks to the likely casualties and diversions of troops the Soviets would have to do to move things along in the Balkans.
 
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Magnum

The front had either collapsed or was about to, meaning I don't really see how the 6th Army escapes.

That said, there is a reasonable chance the axis holds the Carpathian passes, and the front bogs down there. Budapest is spared destruction ITTL. IMO, this has little effect on the overall outcome - battles in Poland would be bigger as both sides give up on the southern front, but the outcome would be largely the same
 

Deleted member 1487

Magnum said:
The front had either collapsed or was about to, meaning I don't really see how the 6th Army escapes.

That said, there is a reasonable chance the axis holds the Carpathian passes, and the front bogs down there. Budapest is spared destruction ITTL. IMO, this has little effect on the overall outcome - battles in Poland would be bigger as both sides give up on the southern front, but the outcome would be largely the same
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Looks like you're right, 6th army was screwed before the Romanian switch. I suppose the question is can the Soviets be stopped short of Bucharest and Ploesti if Romania doesn't flip. Elements of 6th army did manage to get out of the pocket, but not that many.

Relevant Romanian maps of August operations:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a6/Desfasurare_23_August_1944.jpg
http://www.albumdefamilie.ro/imagini/09-2009/romania-23-31-august-1944-22843x1024.jpg
 

Magnum

wiking said:
I suppose the question is can the Soviets be stopped short of Bucharest and Ploesti if Romania doesn't flip.
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My guess would be 'No', as the road to Bucharest is mostly flat land (can confirm), with a couple of very small and easily-manageable rivers along the way. To make matters worse, the autumn rains (and mud) had not yet arrived, meaning this would be prime tank country.

Sure, if they pull a fully-strength Panzer Corps from somewhere, they could halt them, but then the question is 'from where?'
 

Richter von Manthofen

Virtually no influence, maybe a different regime in romania after the war. Hungary might be affected as in co coup attempt, so germany had not to divert troops to crush THAT.
 

Magnum

Richter von Manthofen said:
Virtually no influence, maybe a different regime in romania after the war. Hungary might be affected as in co coup attempt, so germany had not to divert troops to crush THAT.
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It would also be affected by the fact that Budapest escapes destruction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Budapest

Romania OTOH would suffer A LOT from all the fighting and the fact that masses of Soviet troops would be present, well above the OTL number
 

fockewulf

It's very hard to tell. The main thrust towards Berlin was through Poland, so occupying Romania wasn't necessary to defeat Germany. Romania could resist as long as the FNB line could hold. That is the real question, how strong really was the FNB line. There were about 1600 concrete pillboxes, 1800 firing position for AT guns and MGs, 80 km of AT ditches, 18m wide and 6m in depth in front of the exposed areas and the usual trenches and mine fields. During the Iasi-Kisinev offensive, the soviet high command did not consider passing the FNB line at that time. Considering that after the war, king Michael received the order of Victory, we could say that the soviets believed he had a big contribution in defeating Germany and/or helping them in securing a large part of the Balkans.
 
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