Interesting update, intrigued to see how Indo-Pak relations continue with 2002 going hot
Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
ah the American electoral system, just as confusing as always. anyway, great update as always!
IMAO in TTL Pakistan will be much closer to China than in OTL since the US has far less leverage than in OTL. I also think that after the 2002 war Pakistan will try to join the SCO and acquire consistent amounts of armaments from China and to a lesser extent the West and Russia (both being more pro-India than China at this time). Maybe ITTL we're going to see an actual PLAN base at Gwadar?
I don't think the PLA-N would expand, not in 2002 at least. Jiang Zhemin then Hu Jintao were more concerned on internal matters. It was only in the later years of the Hu's presidency, the last year infact, when China started to be more aggressive in the South and East China Seas.
Part 14: The Kashmir Crisis Continued
Part XIV
Kashmir Crisis continued
The war in Kashmir entered its second day on June the 15th 2002, neither side was yet prepared to call off the conflict. Prime Minister Vajpayee knew that Indian special forces still battled for control of the Haji Pir pass and the air force still had targets to hit. President Musharraf knew that unless Pakistan held firm and delivered a counterattack, the conflict would be deemed a loss and India would have an upper hand in any potential negotiations. Every international news agency covered the conflict in excessive detail, outlining every possible scenario that could lead to a nuclear war between the powers and the ramifications for the entire world. At the same time, the nations of the world pushed to mediate a solution. The US secretary of state Colin Powell and UK foreign secretary Jack Straw were flown to the region while President Bush personally called both leaders, hoping to quickly negotiate peace.
BBC and Time magazine Coverage of the 2002 Indo-Pakistan War
The key issue of the war was keeping the conflict limited, neither nation was willing to risk a full-scale invasion of the other yet. Troops were deliberately concentrated solely in the conflict area; India’s air force was permitted to only begin military operations from Indian Kashmir into Pakistan Kashmir. And though missiles were stationed close the front the fear of one side mistaking a ballistic warhead for a nuclear one prevented their usage. These restrictions worked to benefit Pakistan tremendously; India’s military, though larger and better equipped found itself bottlenecked in the harsh terrain, the restrictions on her air missions limited the field of their battlefield control. Naval forces another area that India was superior in were entirely confined to port. The Pakistani army had been severely underestimated by India, though smaller and featuring less modern equipment the troops were well trained and well supplied. After the initial shock of the attack, Pakistani forces adapted, repositioning artillery, abandoning exposed areas, and organised probing and counter-attacks of their own.
The battle for the Haji Pir pass continued, as Indian special forces fought bitterly to clear fortification after fortification. But each fight the Indian forces suffered worse and worse, Pakistani artillery became more effective and brutal, even shelling their own bunkers to deprive the Indian forces of supply. The Pakistani air force began to heavily contest the pass further preventing Indian advance and resupply, the paratroopers suffered harsh casualties and 18 hours of operations stretched the force to its limit.
Pakistani forces began to undertake their own counter-offensives focused on stretching India’s area of operation. These offensives would consist of limited incursions and probing attacks in the north (the extreme heights of the Kargil region and the Siachen Glacier). The bottleneck issue went for double in the awe-inspiring heights of the Himalayas (the conflict is cited as the world’s highest warfare). Pakistan benefited from speed as India was reluctant to supply and transport troops via helicopter fearing their exposure and the possibility of high losses should they be shot down. Warfare was simply different at such heights, just breathing was a challenge and more men died from oxygen starvation than any other cause. The Pakistani assaults were largely designed to distract the Indians and so they avoided large scale battles, these efforts were quite successful as Pakistani forces ventured across the peaks and threatened Indian forces supply lines forcing Indian forces to expend a lot of energy recapturing peaks and chasing after the enemy forces long after they had fled.
Troops on the Siachen Glacier
The second Pakistani offensive would be much larger and involved the usage of tanks. The plan was a personal directive of Musharraf to flip the entire narrative of the conflict, it was akin to Pakistan’s objective in the 1965 war, to capture key areas in the south of Indian controlled Kashmir severing the bulk of India’s forces from its supply line and making any of India’s efforts to capture territory useless. As a benefit, should Pakistan retain any said vital territory it would signal to the world a victory and could even preclude the collapse of India’s control over the region. From the most southerly point Chhamb, Pakistani forces would gather to strike in force across the border and threaten the Indian city Aknur only a stone’s throw from the Indian Kashmiri capital Jammu. It was an ambitious operation that needed more time to prepare, and the use of large ground forces so close to the official Pakistani Indian could be identified as a serious escalation.
(Left) Direction of planned Pakistani advance, (Right) location of the proposed plan of attack
A third area the Pakistani situation improved in was “international support” The war in Kashmir had long been predicted by many Islamic terror groups (many of whom were founded or in liaison with Pakistani intelligence). And in the coming day's mujahadin from across the region often equipped with suspicious levels of Pakistani military gear infiltrated the region and joined the fighting aiding Pakistani defense, bogging down Indian forces and continuing to extend and threaten Indian supply lines. Despite the war's intention to destroy terrorist encampments, it seemed the war would become a vital recruitment opportunity for them.
As the third day of war came on the 17th of June, the mood of the Indians continued to decay, the barrage of calls from foreign nations, combined with the depressing realities of war thickened as casualties little by little no longer leaned quite in their favour. The mood got darker still when after another night of special forces operations, it was revealed that the Haji Pir attack could not continue. Casualties, inadequate air support, and adverse weather conditions had delayed critical operations. This combined with swift Pakistani reinforcements (including their own special forces the SSG) permanently stalled any further advance without considerable reinforcements, it was a serious blow. Indian high command believed that the Para was the greatest fighting force on the globe, and now, even their inability to make military gains was an unbearably tough pill to swallow.
Pakistani Special Service Group
The third day of the war saw more of the same, Indian jets continued to strike so-called terror bases, an increase of cross border raids and infiltration. News of aircraft being downed or sudden raids on convoys became eerily repeatable. The atmosphere began to take a significant toll on the northern war effort as Indian forces continued to chase infiltrator after infiltrator. Then Indian intelligence learned of the build-up of Pakistani troops and armour in the south and immediately planned their defence. Protecting the region would be tough, supplies were stretched as they were, and adding more troops to the area would come with significant complications. The Indian army had no idea where the Pakistanis would attack either into Kashmir or further into the neighbouring Punjab province. The Indian army already had men stationed along Punjab, but should an attack across the border come, the entire conflict threatened to explode quickly, to rectify this the order was given for more troops to be brought up across the entire Indo-Pakistan border an action replicated by Pakistan. Keeping aerial superiority was also impossible if terror missions were to continue as well as the Haji pass operation unless non-Kashmiri bases were used or strikes were permitted against Pakistan’s air bases, but both options were ruled out as being too dangerous an escalation. Instead, troops were reshuffled bringing India’s own armour south as well as reinforcements designed for the Haji pass, strikes against terror bases were also suspended. On June 17th the 4th day of the war Pakistani preparations finished, quicker than the Indian high command believed possible, and the Pakistani attack, Operation Stampede began.
Pakistani armour struck across the line of control at the southernmost tip, the very edge of the India-Pakistan proper border. Unwilling to cross through the proper territory the Pakistani attack was slower, resembling less a lightning blitz and more a thundering advance. The initial attack overwhelmed India’s unprepared forces but the response came quickly. The halting of aerial missions in the north freed up the necessary jets to deny Pakistan air control and the Pakistani tanks were forced to march forward under the threat of bombardment severely clogging up their columns. The Pakistani forces were also heavily congested squeezed between the mountains and rivers while Indian forces prepared their counterattack bringing their own tanks with them setting the stage for the Battle of Manda.
Indian tanks move to counter Pakistans advance
The Indians launched a counterattack, firing from the mountains with their heavy guns into the Pakistani forces until sufficiently softened up, Musharraf a student of history communicated directly to his generals to ensure that Pakistan never overcommitted. The Indian army was also cautious hoping for an enemy retreat, but the Pakistani forces remained firm and returned fire before pushing on. Over a day and a half, the Indian and Pakistani armies clashed heavily. Hoping to cut off the attack India attempted a flank through the mountains though they had insufficient numbers to effectively make such an attack. The tank battle was swift as Indian forces attacked head-on, to permanently halt the advance and force heavy casualties and destruction. Again, India’s dreams of rolling over the Pakistani military were dashed but the Indian counterattack dud successfully halt the advance (the largest of the entire war), and the Pakistani army facing the possibility of being overrun little by little retreated into Pakistani Kashmir.
The battle (the greatest of the 02 war) was a victory for the Indians, the Pakistani army had been undone by the same issues that undid the Indian army, the weather, the topography, and the politics. In terms of both casualties and equipment, the Pakistani army lost over 600 men and 34 tanks compared to India’s 230 and 6 tanks. However, the battle served its purpose, to severely distract the Indian front in the north and west. Manda would be the height of the conflict; it provided the Indian government a prime opportunity to declare victory and pull out, which it did three days later on the 21st of June, announcing that its mission to eliminate terror enclaves had successfully concluded. artillery and air missions gradually slowed down to a trickle. The hardest fighting continued in the extreme north as well as a fighting withdrawal from the Haji Pir pass. Any potential war ended in July as the monsoon made any fighting impossible and though the occasional artillery exchange or cross-border firefight occurred peace slowly dawned. On the 12th of July following 4 weeks of war and an estimated 9,000 deaths, India and Pakistan agreed to a unilateral ceasefire and both nations declared victory.
Indian and Pakistan border following the end of open hostilities
The 2002 Indo-Pakistani war (traditionally referred to as the Kashmir war) differed from all other major conflicts between the two nations. The war was fought between politicians rather than generals, the war had been declared to force Pakistan to change its terror policy and Musharraf’s public relations offensive played a strong role in forcing the Indian forces to fight on his terms, his standing threat to use nuclear weapons severely hindered all of India’s advantages, restricting its land, air, and sea power. India’s generals noted much later that the speed of Pakistanis mobilization compared to India’s came at a complete surprise making it so that unless India were willing to commit heavily, making any gains would become impossible. The air war was also heavily contested to India’s dismay, its pilots were insufficiently trained for combat, and they suffered from many malfunctions that couldn’t be quickly repaired. The introduction of foreign powers also undercut India, even the United States with its many transgressions against Pakistan lobbied for peace having extracted more promises from Musharraf to crackdown as well as the re-arrest of a few minor terror suspects. China also involved itself in threatening to supply Pakistan should India not back down a proposal that could severely extend the conflict.
Wreckage of a crashed Indian Jet
Though the Indian government attempted to claim victory it was clear it had not been the smashing victory they had hoped for, the government's popularity seesawed from the monumental heights of a wartime government to a new low as criticism from ardent nationalists and pacifists poured in. The only measure of success it held was that border intrusions dipped a natural occurrence in the rainy seasons and only time could tell how long that would last. Pakistan triumphed, framing the war as an attempted Indian invasion that had been well and truly repelled, the ruptured carcasses of dozens of Indian MiGs were paraded and the captured uniforms of Indian special forces replicated that of a stolen enemy’s flag. For Musharraf, it was everything he needed, and his popularity spiked in the aftermath, it was certainly the biggest victory for the Pakistani military since the war of 47 and gave Musharraf the free hand over Pakistan’s future he desired.[1]
(Left) Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and (Right) Pakistani President Musharraf
Kashmir Crisis continued
The war in Kashmir entered its second day on June the 15th 2002, neither side was yet prepared to call off the conflict. Prime Minister Vajpayee knew that Indian special forces still battled for control of the Haji Pir pass and the air force still had targets to hit. President Musharraf knew that unless Pakistan held firm and delivered a counterattack, the conflict would be deemed a loss and India would have an upper hand in any potential negotiations. Every international news agency covered the conflict in excessive detail, outlining every possible scenario that could lead to a nuclear war between the powers and the ramifications for the entire world. At the same time, the nations of the world pushed to mediate a solution. The US secretary of state Colin Powell and UK foreign secretary Jack Straw were flown to the region while President Bush personally called both leaders, hoping to quickly negotiate peace.
BBC and Time magazine Coverage of the 2002 Indo-Pakistan War
The key issue of the war was keeping the conflict limited, neither nation was willing to risk a full-scale invasion of the other yet. Troops were deliberately concentrated solely in the conflict area; India’s air force was permitted to only begin military operations from Indian Kashmir into Pakistan Kashmir. And though missiles were stationed close the front the fear of one side mistaking a ballistic warhead for a nuclear one prevented their usage. These restrictions worked to benefit Pakistan tremendously; India’s military, though larger and better equipped found itself bottlenecked in the harsh terrain, the restrictions on her air missions limited the field of their battlefield control. Naval forces another area that India was superior in were entirely confined to port. The Pakistani army had been severely underestimated by India, though smaller and featuring less modern equipment the troops were well trained and well supplied. After the initial shock of the attack, Pakistani forces adapted, repositioning artillery, abandoning exposed areas, and organised probing and counter-attacks of their own.
The battle for the Haji Pir pass continued, as Indian special forces fought bitterly to clear fortification after fortification. But each fight the Indian forces suffered worse and worse, Pakistani artillery became more effective and brutal, even shelling their own bunkers to deprive the Indian forces of supply. The Pakistani air force began to heavily contest the pass further preventing Indian advance and resupply, the paratroopers suffered harsh casualties and 18 hours of operations stretched the force to its limit.
Pakistani forces began to undertake their own counter-offensives focused on stretching India’s area of operation. These offensives would consist of limited incursions and probing attacks in the north (the extreme heights of the Kargil region and the Siachen Glacier). The bottleneck issue went for double in the awe-inspiring heights of the Himalayas (the conflict is cited as the world’s highest warfare). Pakistan benefited from speed as India was reluctant to supply and transport troops via helicopter fearing their exposure and the possibility of high losses should they be shot down. Warfare was simply different at such heights, just breathing was a challenge and more men died from oxygen starvation than any other cause. The Pakistani assaults were largely designed to distract the Indians and so they avoided large scale battles, these efforts were quite successful as Pakistani forces ventured across the peaks and threatened Indian forces supply lines forcing Indian forces to expend a lot of energy recapturing peaks and chasing after the enemy forces long after they had fled.
Troops on the Siachen Glacier
The second Pakistani offensive would be much larger and involved the usage of tanks. The plan was a personal directive of Musharraf to flip the entire narrative of the conflict, it was akin to Pakistan’s objective in the 1965 war, to capture key areas in the south of Indian controlled Kashmir severing the bulk of India’s forces from its supply line and making any of India’s efforts to capture territory useless. As a benefit, should Pakistan retain any said vital territory it would signal to the world a victory and could even preclude the collapse of India’s control over the region. From the most southerly point Chhamb, Pakistani forces would gather to strike in force across the border and threaten the Indian city Aknur only a stone’s throw from the Indian Kashmiri capital Jammu. It was an ambitious operation that needed more time to prepare, and the use of large ground forces so close to the official Pakistani Indian could be identified as a serious escalation.
(Left) Direction of planned Pakistani advance, (Right) location of the proposed plan of attack
A third area the Pakistani situation improved in was “international support” The war in Kashmir had long been predicted by many Islamic terror groups (many of whom were founded or in liaison with Pakistani intelligence). And in the coming day's mujahadin from across the region often equipped with suspicious levels of Pakistani military gear infiltrated the region and joined the fighting aiding Pakistani defense, bogging down Indian forces and continuing to extend and threaten Indian supply lines. Despite the war's intention to destroy terrorist encampments, it seemed the war would become a vital recruitment opportunity for them.
As the third day of war came on the 17th of June, the mood of the Indians continued to decay, the barrage of calls from foreign nations, combined with the depressing realities of war thickened as casualties little by little no longer leaned quite in their favour. The mood got darker still when after another night of special forces operations, it was revealed that the Haji Pir attack could not continue. Casualties, inadequate air support, and adverse weather conditions had delayed critical operations. This combined with swift Pakistani reinforcements (including their own special forces the SSG) permanently stalled any further advance without considerable reinforcements, it was a serious blow. Indian high command believed that the Para was the greatest fighting force on the globe, and now, even their inability to make military gains was an unbearably tough pill to swallow.
Pakistani Special Service Group
The third day of the war saw more of the same, Indian jets continued to strike so-called terror bases, an increase of cross border raids and infiltration. News of aircraft being downed or sudden raids on convoys became eerily repeatable. The atmosphere began to take a significant toll on the northern war effort as Indian forces continued to chase infiltrator after infiltrator. Then Indian intelligence learned of the build-up of Pakistani troops and armour in the south and immediately planned their defence. Protecting the region would be tough, supplies were stretched as they were, and adding more troops to the area would come with significant complications. The Indian army had no idea where the Pakistanis would attack either into Kashmir or further into the neighbouring Punjab province. The Indian army already had men stationed along Punjab, but should an attack across the border come, the entire conflict threatened to explode quickly, to rectify this the order was given for more troops to be brought up across the entire Indo-Pakistan border an action replicated by Pakistan. Keeping aerial superiority was also impossible if terror missions were to continue as well as the Haji pass operation unless non-Kashmiri bases were used or strikes were permitted against Pakistan’s air bases, but both options were ruled out as being too dangerous an escalation. Instead, troops were reshuffled bringing India’s own armour south as well as reinforcements designed for the Haji pass, strikes against terror bases were also suspended. On June 17th the 4th day of the war Pakistani preparations finished, quicker than the Indian high command believed possible, and the Pakistani attack, Operation Stampede began.
Pakistani armour struck across the line of control at the southernmost tip, the very edge of the India-Pakistan proper border. Unwilling to cross through the proper territory the Pakistani attack was slower, resembling less a lightning blitz and more a thundering advance. The initial attack overwhelmed India’s unprepared forces but the response came quickly. The halting of aerial missions in the north freed up the necessary jets to deny Pakistan air control and the Pakistani tanks were forced to march forward under the threat of bombardment severely clogging up their columns. The Pakistani forces were also heavily congested squeezed between the mountains and rivers while Indian forces prepared their counterattack bringing their own tanks with them setting the stage for the Battle of Manda.
Indian tanks move to counter Pakistans advance
The Indians launched a counterattack, firing from the mountains with their heavy guns into the Pakistani forces until sufficiently softened up, Musharraf a student of history communicated directly to his generals to ensure that Pakistan never overcommitted. The Indian army was also cautious hoping for an enemy retreat, but the Pakistani forces remained firm and returned fire before pushing on. Over a day and a half, the Indian and Pakistani armies clashed heavily. Hoping to cut off the attack India attempted a flank through the mountains though they had insufficient numbers to effectively make such an attack. The tank battle was swift as Indian forces attacked head-on, to permanently halt the advance and force heavy casualties and destruction. Again, India’s dreams of rolling over the Pakistani military were dashed but the Indian counterattack dud successfully halt the advance (the largest of the entire war), and the Pakistani army facing the possibility of being overrun little by little retreated into Pakistani Kashmir.
The battle (the greatest of the 02 war) was a victory for the Indians, the Pakistani army had been undone by the same issues that undid the Indian army, the weather, the topography, and the politics. In terms of both casualties and equipment, the Pakistani army lost over 600 men and 34 tanks compared to India’s 230 and 6 tanks. However, the battle served its purpose, to severely distract the Indian front in the north and west. Manda would be the height of the conflict; it provided the Indian government a prime opportunity to declare victory and pull out, which it did three days later on the 21st of June, announcing that its mission to eliminate terror enclaves had successfully concluded. artillery and air missions gradually slowed down to a trickle. The hardest fighting continued in the extreme north as well as a fighting withdrawal from the Haji Pir pass. Any potential war ended in July as the monsoon made any fighting impossible and though the occasional artillery exchange or cross-border firefight occurred peace slowly dawned. On the 12th of July following 4 weeks of war and an estimated 9,000 deaths, India and Pakistan agreed to a unilateral ceasefire and both nations declared victory.
Indian and Pakistan border following the end of open hostilities
The 2002 Indo-Pakistani war (traditionally referred to as the Kashmir war) differed from all other major conflicts between the two nations. The war was fought between politicians rather than generals, the war had been declared to force Pakistan to change its terror policy and Musharraf’s public relations offensive played a strong role in forcing the Indian forces to fight on his terms, his standing threat to use nuclear weapons severely hindered all of India’s advantages, restricting its land, air, and sea power. India’s generals noted much later that the speed of Pakistanis mobilization compared to India’s came at a complete surprise making it so that unless India were willing to commit heavily, making any gains would become impossible. The air war was also heavily contested to India’s dismay, its pilots were insufficiently trained for combat, and they suffered from many malfunctions that couldn’t be quickly repaired. The introduction of foreign powers also undercut India, even the United States with its many transgressions against Pakistan lobbied for peace having extracted more promises from Musharraf to crackdown as well as the re-arrest of a few minor terror suspects. China also involved itself in threatening to supply Pakistan should India not back down a proposal that could severely extend the conflict.
Wreckage of a crashed Indian Jet
Though the Indian government attempted to claim victory it was clear it had not been the smashing victory they had hoped for, the government's popularity seesawed from the monumental heights of a wartime government to a new low as criticism from ardent nationalists and pacifists poured in. The only measure of success it held was that border intrusions dipped a natural occurrence in the rainy seasons and only time could tell how long that would last. Pakistan triumphed, framing the war as an attempted Indian invasion that had been well and truly repelled, the ruptured carcasses of dozens of Indian MiGs were paraded and the captured uniforms of Indian special forces replicated that of a stolen enemy’s flag. For Musharraf, it was everything he needed, and his popularity spiked in the aftermath, it was certainly the biggest victory for the Pakistani military since the war of 47 and gave Musharraf the free hand over Pakistan’s future he desired.[1]
(Left) Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and (Right) Pakistani President Musharraf
[1] I am not an expert on military operations and have focused on the bigger picture, that India overestimated its own abilities and underestimated the Pakistani’s. Combined with the self-imposed restraints and international attention the war ends up more or less successful for Pakistan though they suffer higher casualties.great update! it would be nice ton see more specific updates like this in the future.
Really interesting chapter, but in my opnion indian air losses are a bit too heavy. I can see India losing up to a dozen aircraft and helicopter in the whole conflict, but not dozens of MiGs.
Great point, I was just trying to illustrate that where India hoped to dominate seriously backfired on them. Perhaps these are just the Pakistani figures
Will we come to know what promises the US extracted out of Pakistan for their support in pressuring India to back down?
Its basically a stalemate but its a massive blow to India's military confidence.
I think that it is safe to say that India will push for closer relations (read more military equipment deals) with Russia. Maybe they could buy some Su-34 fighter-bombers?