Faster end to the American Revolutionary War

[Arch-Angel]

So lets say, through a mixture of luck and skill, the ARW ends around 1780 with a Paris Treaty and US independence. I understand I'm being vague and it greatly depends on the war turns out, but generally speaking, what would the effects be? With a shorter war would the US be in a better financial position? I would also presume the AoC/analogue would exist. So the Constitution/analogue would happen at some point, correct? Anything else anyone can think of?

 

[Mre64]

So lets say, through a mixture of luck and skill, the ARW ends around 1780 with a Paris Treaty and US independence. I understand I'm being vague and it greatly depends on the war turns out, but generally speaking, what would the effects be? With a shorter war would the US be in a better financial position? I would also presume the AoC/analogue would exist. So the Constitution/analogue would happen at some point, correct? Anything else anyone can think of?

Assuming the same treaty as OTL, that's three fewer years of payment for soldiers and supplies, and three fewer years of being cut off from British markets and finance, which should mean a healthier short US in the short term, but beyond the first few years it honestly depends on how the Articles of Confederation collapse (it's basically inevitable that they will given their nature) and what the response is to that collapse.

 

[hzn5pk]

Are their any major battles on southern soil? Perhaps, the Americans and French have a successful siege and recapture Savannah in 1779, which is the catalyst for ending hostilities.

Yes, their were southern units that served in the North with the Washington, but how would the South view Union if no real blood was spilled on southern soil. Or is this really relevant?

 

[Arch-Angel]

Are their any major battles on southern soil? Perhaps, the Americans and French have a successful siege and recapture Savannah in 1779, which is the catalyst for ending hostilities.

Yes, their were southern units that served in the North with the Washington, but how would the South view Union if no real blood was spilled on southern soil. Or is this really relevant?

It plays a role for sure, and in the scenario I have in my head their is fighting in the south. It gets off lighter, but then again so does the north.

 

[Mikestone8]

What sort of interval are we assuming between Britain's abandonment of offensive operations in the 13 Colonies, until the conclusion of peace?OTL it was almost two years. And what is likely to happen during that interval?

 

[hzn5pk]

There are a few scenarios for a quick peace
1. Lack of British success - somehow the Patriots are able to hold onto Long Island and Manhattan and kick the British out of Canada - this is a stretch
2. American victories in 1777 with Saratoga and against Howe, followed by successful American offensives in 1779 and defense of the South
3. France and/or Spain pose a bigger threat to Great Britain and they need to conduct peace fast to protect West Indies, Gibraltar, or the homeland itself

USA makes peace without France, makes France ticks France off

An earlier independence and less foreign aid should aid the USA

In 1780, Ben Franklin may be able to have some influence on the government from AoC to whatever.
John Laurens from SC may not perish as well. He was an early abolitionist. Richard Montgomery may not perish as well.

Looking forward to this timeline, the POD, and how the USA shapes out

 

[Diego]

It would be very good to France. Could it butterfly away the Revolution and Napoleon?

 

[Arch-Angel]

I don't want to be too specific because I am playing around with a scenario (to be posted when I feel ready). Basically though, the colonies are more successful in the early phases of the war, knocking the British on their heels. They do try and regroup with a southern attack, and it does prolong the the war. However, the early success convinces the French/Spanish to jump in and the British goose is cooked.

 

[hzn5pk]

Ok cannot wait ... I think that it is plausible for greater American success earlier in the ARW. Such as:

The Patriots literally had the British relief expedition to Lexington/Concord swarmed .... what if the Patriots were a little more organised and blocked the British column from getting back to Boston. The Royal Navy owned the harbor and coast, but with a little more organisation, the Patriots could have swarmed a British column of over 1200 troops from reaching the safety of the ships.

That would lead to more confidence and captured supplies ...... which would lead to a successful defense of Breed's Hill (Bunker Hill)

If the Patriots have Boston in their grips .... more reinforcements and the cannon of Ticonderoga can be put towards the Canada campaign

With more men and the cannon, Fort St. Jean, Fort Chambly might fall sooner, Guy Carlton may be captured on route to Quebec City. All of Quebec may be captured for the Americans.

Would all of this be enough to bring the French in 1776 which would pay dividends in 1777 and 1778.

Would early French entrance change the massive reinforcements that the British brought in 1776 for New York and Canada campaigns? Perhaps

 

[ManintheField]

but beyond the first few years it honestly depends on how the Articles of Confederation collapse (it's basically inevitable that they will given their nature) and what the response is to that collapse.

If the war ends early, though, the economic outlook is very different. The really harmful inflation of the continental dollar and the state currencies only really took off in 1779 itself. If the war is, instead of racing towards a peak, winding down in 1779 then issues are likely to be lesser and the 'mild' inflation of 1775-1778 is likely to be all that holders of these paper monies suffer. They'll be skipping the hyper-inflation that occurred in the years that followed. That's got pretty huge implications. The way the states limped through the 1780's when it came to their own obligations is going to be butterflied away, which means they're more likely to meet requisition requests from the Congress, which kicks out one of the major legs of the nationalist movement.

A Revolutionary War that ends early with less economic damage to the newly independent states may, conversely, lead to a weaker US national government as time goes by. The primary argument for a stronger national government (the need to cover war debts) is going to be a lot weaker when the ability to cover those debts with cash on hand is a lot stronger.