Eisenhower in the Pacific: Part 1 The Shoestring Warriors of Luzon

[zert]

Though I doubt it, might the additional losses and having to divert more men and weapons to the Philippines have the Japanese use chemical weapons to break the lines on Bataan and Corregidor?

We may see the Japanese encourage their men to treat any Filipino and Americans guerillas as the Nazi's did with Soviet partisans. How bad will the reprisals be against nearby villages and towns?

 

[Lost Freeway]

Though I doubt it, might the additional losses and having to divert more men and weapons to the Philippines have the Japanese use chemical weapons to break the lines on Bataan and Corregidor?

If so, it may result in a different view of the use of nuclear weapons on Japan-provided the war lasts long enough for America to break out the nuke.

 

[sloreck]

Using chemicals (and biological to some extent) weapons against the Chinese in some cases was "safe" for the Japanese as the Chinese had no chemical protection and no way to retaliate. Against the USA, not so smart as the USA had much better capacity to wage chemical war and the Japanese knew it. Furthermore given the relatively poor chemical capabilities of the IJA using chemicals (which be mustard or cyanogen chloride most likely) against the US forces could backfire, and the Japanese would have to advance through contaminated areas. Not good for them. Following WWI pretty much the only use of chemical weapons was against powers that had little ability to protect themselves and no ability to retaliate. Think British against Iraqis, Italians against Ethiopians, etc.

 

[Lost Freeway]

We may see the Japanese encourage their men to treat any Filipino and Americans guerillas as the Nazi's did with Soviet partisans. How bad will the reprisals be against nearby villages and towns?

Very bad, I bet.

 

[sloreck]

OTL the treatment of partisans, the retaliation against civilians was pretty bad to begin with and got worse as the war went on. I expect that between a longer and more painful fight before at least Luzon is fully occupied and the already development of an earlier and more organized resistance, when the major fighting ends the Japanese are going to be pretty pissed off. More Japanese are dead/wounded and their timetable has been hosed. Any efforts they may make to win over the Filipinos will be way less than OTL, and they may come around rapidly to applying the same "Three Alls" polciy in the PI they did in China.

 

[Lost Freeway]

OTL the treatment of partisans, the retaliation against civilians was pretty bad to begin with and got worse as the war went on. I expect that between a longer and more painful fight before at least Luzon is fully occupied and the already development of an earlier and more organized resistance, when the major fighting ends the Japanese are going to be pretty pissed off. More Japanese are dead/wounded and their timetable has been hosed. Any efforts they may make to win over the Filipinos will be way less than OTL, and they may come around rapidly to applying the same "Three Alls" polciy in the PI they did in China.

Yeah, things are looking very bleak for the Philippines.

 

[zert]

So maybe the results of a harsher Japanese occupation and retaliation policies might make OTL Battle of Manila small scale? The Rape of Luzon and even more destruction as the Japanese exact revenge for the Filipinoes daring to resist their conquerers.

 

[Knightmare]

So maybe the results of a harsher Japanese occupation and retaliation policies might make OTL Battle of Manila small scale? The Rape of Luzon and even more destruction as the Japanese exact revenge for the Filipinoes daring to resist their conquerers.

Which could tie into the US being even less merciful towards Japan, seeing as they viewed the Filipinos as basically their little brothers...

 

[Fearless Leader]

Once the Americans are bottled up in Bataan in TTL I see no reason why Japan would take substantial numbers of troops and ships away from the invasion of the DEI to reduce them any earlier than they did in OTL. As long as they can contain the American force they should be content with continuing their offensive south.

That being said, I think the real change is going to hit once the core islands of the DEI are taken. I could definitely see them postponing operations in Northern New Guinea and Central Burma due to the need to reduce Bataan.

 

[longtimelurkerinMD]

thanks for the kind words (and to longtimelurkerinMD too)

instead of trying to shoehorn the events in Dutch East Indies into this story starting another story to run along with this one

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...al-seas-a-story-from-a-battle-at-dawn.412552/

GB I admire your approach to all of this in biting it off in manageable pieces - and making us wait a week. Also thanks much for making me aware of the PH book. Am I accurate in your intent - you showed outcome of two better played approaches on PH?

Calbear and Johnboy kind of spoiled us, but I also got a sense they might of got some writing burnout at various points.

Still like to read a full finished version of Pac War Redux.

I've been meaning to PM you on some thoughts concerning your Goering timeline, specifically concerning the approach on invading Russia - have played through SE/FITE both solo and (against someone through initial stages) and the old War in the East; and concerning your account of actions in and around SE Alaska: I was born in Sitka and after a spell in Juneau, lived there until finishing high school - seen and grown up around the installation residue from WW2.

Add mine to thoughts and concerns on your wife's health and well-being.

 

[zert]

Which could tie into the US being even less merciful towards Japan, seeing as they viewed the Filipinos as basically their little brothers...

Agreed and should Japan act in such manner there may be more revenge against captured Japanese and trials after the War.

 

[Knightmare]

Agreed and should Japan act in such manner there may be more revenge against captured Japanese and trials after the War.

Why wouldn't Japan act badly occupying the Philipines? They did it OTL, here, they've gone through a worse initial fight, meaning they're in a worse mood....

 

[pjmidd]

Given the general mindset of the Japanese military at this point, it would be certain that things will be worse than OTL for civilians if the campaign lasts longer. If the south does not surrender when Bataan falls then all bets are off , especially if there is a new commander due to a failure to keep up with the timetable High Command have.

 

[longtimelurkerinMD]

I bought a used copy of Across the Pacific some years ago. Haven't read it yet. I'll try to tackle it this year. I do have both Shattered Sword and Zimm's book - was looking through Shattered Sword this evening, and hunting for Zimm's book.

To GB, I am enjoying this story.

Across the Pacific is dense reading in some ways, but worthwhile - kind of like reading Sansom's books on history of Japan.

I don't claim to be well read in naval history, but of what I've read, Shattered Sword is not only very readable, but really landmark, and the best naval history book I've ever read. It also benefits also from the author's computer graphics professional connection - very good diagrams and maps - a shortcoming in a lot of books. I found the technical detail about the nature and operation Japanese aircraft carrier's in general very interesting - like the fact that the Japanese carrier island was like a naval version of the 1 or 2 man tank turret. The last several chapters on the outcome and big picture stuff are as important as the content on the battle itself - and very relevant to even this timeline - good general discussion of Japanese strategy and some further references. One comment I forgot to add in my initial post that I think is vital is his simple and clear discussion of doctrine and practice, even exceeding Zimm the professional here maybe: its a tether, military's don't just do things in vacuum or change practice in an instant, things are done a certain way because that's how they trained - in general. Simple point, but a pretty important one. Many times on this site I think that's a point lost.

Another author I mean to get into reading for the purpose of understanding the Japanese mindset is John Dower and War without Mercy, though I don't hold with some of his pacifist views - have his Embracing Defeat as well.

Zimm's book was easy to find on Amazon and affordable:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1612001971/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o05_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I got through reading it partly, by jumping around some, and not reading it straight through. Can be a slog in places. Read the Amazon reviews in depth, starting that recently, but wishing I'd done it a long time ago - so obvious - sometimes the negative or critical ones are the most helpful to sort out whether the rest of the reviews are a lemming stampede, or just to form a more measured, complex view and get more info beyond the book. On the PH book, there's some really interesting back and forth between a descendant of Kimmel - trying to defend him as being a scapegoat - Zimm is pretty harsh and clear about Kimmel and uses a Naval officer's perspective to be so.

 

[thorr97]

On an other discussion board the subject of a more successful American defense of the Philippines was deeply discussed and an interesting observation came of it. Namely, that such a success might lead to disaster for the US in the overall Pacific war.

I think it was the author, Tom Kratman, who advanced this premise.

In the scenario, the US is able to hold off the Japanese in the Philippines with better results. The Japanese aren't driven off the islands but their advance and conquest is greatly slowed. Slowed enough that public pressure builds in the US for a relief expedition to be mounted in an effort to save the heroic defenders trapped by the Japanese in the Philippines. In OTL the Philippines fell to quickly for that sentiment to gain ground and certainly too quickly for any realistic relief force to be assembled and arrive. A longer holding out however, would alter that calculus. In the scenario Kratman described, this would force the US to commit forces to a relief / rescue mission without have built-up sufficient strength to deal with the Japanese forces at their strongest. This bowing to public opinion pressure to "save our boys" would thus lead to defeats in detail as one too small force after another is sacrificed in that vain attempt at rescue.

Imagine the effect of a loss of even a single US Navy carrier task force in February or March of '42. And if that task force had troop transports assigned it would be far worse.

The pressure from the home front to mount such a rescue / relief attempt will be strong indeed and only increase the longer the troops in the Philippines hold out. The pressure wouldn't be based on reality but on emotions and that would be difficult to deny. In OTL, Wainwright had surrendered in May. If the more prepared Philippine defenders in this ATL hold out longer than that then the domestic political pressure will play an even larger - and more dangerous - role.

 

[Oldbill]

I don't buy Kratman's arguments. IMO the US will stick to Germany first. Additionally, there is a need, already known to the naval planners, to build up the fleet train to a level capable of sustaining WPO. That hasn't been done before end of 42.

 

[Driftless]

No doubt there would be public pressure to relieve the "Boys on Bataan", but Admiral King & Gen Marshall would need to firmly explain the hard realities to the President, Cabinet, and House & Senate leadership. They, in turn, would need to sell the reality to the public.

 

[The Sandman]

Your basic assumption when the Krat-man says something should be that it's wrong. At best, it's correct in the "stopped clock, twice a day" sense.

 

[thorr97]

Oldbill,

Yes, that's the plan and it is a correct plan. We're a democratic nation led by elected politicians and they're in charge of the military. Even in OTL our politicians were always screwing around with military planning. Luckily for us, it wasn't too detrimental.

As far as mounting an actual relief expedition goes, even if the "Boys of Bataan" held out well past May that still would be too soon for an expedition to be assembled and deployed. If the popular opinion was that overwhelming that it caused the politicians to make such demands of the military then it's still much more likely that the Philippines would've fallen before that relief force even set sail - let alone come ashore in the Philippines.

Still though, it's an interesting angle to consider.

 

[thorr97]

Driftless,

They, in turn, would need to sell the reality to the public.

Agreed and that's the rub. There already was a horrendous amount of political pressure on those politicians for having failed to adequately prepare our defenses and thus "left our boys to die" in the Philippines. At least in OTL, the Philippines had already fallen before any relief expedition could've been mounted in response to that political pressure and thus no sales job was needed.