What would be the effect of Graf Spee avoiding the river Plate battle and returning home safely? (Perhaps considering his making the OTL decision without his float plane workable to skip the Plate and just return home safely in the dark of late December, early January in the North Atlantic???
Deutschland returned to Germany safely in 1939 IOTL and Hipper & Scheer were able to return to Germany safely in 1941 so it's feasible.
I would assume a long refit is in order, perhaps missing April 40 Norway, but perhaps an August 1940 solo raid again, or perhaps going out with Scheer in October 40???
It depends upon how long the refit takes. If it's completed in time for the ship to take part in the Invasion of Norway then she forms a double act with Lützow (ex-Deutschland) and if it wasn't completed in time for the ship to take part in the Invasion of Norway she forms a double act with Scheer.
Scenario One - Double Act with Lützow.
Lützow (ex-Deutschland) was refitted in time to take part in the Invasion of Norway so Graff Spee might have been too, in which case she may have taken the place of Blücher (because she wasn't fully worked up) with the result that the heavy cruiser isn't sunk and the panzerschiffe is sunk in Blücher's place.
My guess is that a surviving Blücher forms a double act with Hipper for the rest of the war. Maybe they do more damage to WS.5A & its escort and sink more ships from SL.64. Then they are sent to Norway in March 1942 and the Battle of Barrents Sea would have had a much different outcome. Except that due to the Germans having stronger naval forces the British might sail JW.51 as one big convoy instead of two small ones because one big convoy was easier to defend. Therefore, they might miss the convoy completely (à la JW.51A IOTL) or attack a convoy defended by 12 destroyers instead of 6 with the Sheffield & Jamaica near the convoy instead of being between JW.51B & RA.51A as IOTL. Hipper & Köln returned to Germany in January 1943 IOTL and all other things being equal Blücher returned to Germany with them ITTL.
However, if Graff Spee was luckier than Blücher and was heavily damaged instead of being sunk with the repairs lasting until the middle of 1941 . . .
IOTL the plan was to send Lützow (ex-Deutschland) and Scheer on a commerce raiding sortie in the second half of 1941 and ITTL the plan may have been for all three panzerschiffen to take part in the sortie. IOTL it was cancelled after Lützow was torpedoed by a RAF Beaufort. Maybe Lützow might not have been torpedoed if Graff Spee had been with her or the sortie may have continued with Graff Spee & Scheer only or (according to Scheer's Wikipedia entry) been called off anyway due to the destruction of the supply ship network. My guess is that the sortie would have been a suicide mission with the most likely outcome being that they were sunk whist trying to break into the North Atlantic and if they did get through unscathed they'd be sunk by a RN force in the South Atlantic or Indian Ocean and in the unlikely event of surviving that long be sunk in the Denmark Strait whilst trying to return to Germany. At best they'd be forced to turn back when attempting to break into the North Atlantic instead of being sunk in the attempt and been repaired in time to be sent to Norway in the first half of 1942.
If the second half of 1941 Atlantic sortie doesn't take place (as IOTL) due to the loss of the supply ships (or it's attempted with two or three ships & they're forced to turn back) then Scheer goes to Norway in February 1942 (as IOTL) and Lützow goes to Norway in May 1942 (as IOTL) accompanied by Graff Spee.
IOTL Lützow didn't take part in the planned attack on PQ.17 because she ran aground and ITTL Graff Spee ran aground too. IOTL the force was reduced to Hipper, Scheer & Tirpitz. ITTL it was reduced to Blücher, Hipper, Scheer & Tirpitz. Would the attack have gone ahead ITTL? They still had four heavy ships ITTL instead of three. So would it have been considered worth the risk in spite of the loss of surprise?
IOTL the Germans planned to attack PQ.18 with Hipper, Köln & Scheer (Lützow & Tirpitz were under repair). ITTL the plan would have been to attack the convoy with Blücher, Hipper, Köln & Scheer (Graff Spee, Lützow & Tirpitz were under repair). IOTL Hitler cancelled the operation because he didn't want to risk losses to the surface fleet. Would it have gone ahead ITTL? Hitler had more ships to loose and attacking with four major warships instead of three reduced the chances of losses in the first place.
Graff Spee is repaired in time to take part in the Battle of the Barrents Sea which ITTL would have been Blücher, Graff Spee, Hipper, Lützow & 6 Z-boats v Jamaica, Sheffield & 6 or 12 destroyers depending upon whether JW.51 is one large convoy or two small convoys. As already related my guess is that the RN would have gone big or gone home by making it one large convoy or it would not have been sent it at all because the German surface forces were thought to be too strong.
IOTL Lützow remained in Norwegian waters until September 1943 and it was planned that she'd make a sortie into the Kara Sea called Operation Husar (a repeat of Operation Wunderland) which was called off because she had machinery problems. ITTL Graff Spee would have remained in Norwegian waters until September 1943 too and the plan would have been for both ships to make the sortie. Maybe Graff Spee makes a solo sortie when Lützow develops machinery trouble or it is postponed until Lützow was repaired only for it to be cancelled for a second time (as IOTL) due to aerial reconnaissance reporting no traffic and heavy ice.
Scenario Two - Double Act with Scheer.
Graff Spee & Scheer sink more than the 5 out of 37 ships from HX.84 than Scheer did alone and they might sink more than 11 ships afterwards. As already related the follow-up sortie of late 1941 would probably have been a one-way trip for all ships involved had it gone ahead regardless of whether it had been Graff Spee & Scheer with or without Lützow.
ITTL Graff Spee doesn't run aground with Lützow, which reduced the German squadron to Graff Spee, Hipper, Scheer & Tirpitz because Blücher was still sunk in April 1940 in Scenario Two. Would the attack have gone ahead ITTL? They still had four heavy ships ITTL instead of three. So would it have been considered worth the risk in spite of the loss of surprise?
Lützow & Scheer were to have taken part in Operation Wonderland IOTL but the grounding of Lützow meant it was by Scheer only. ITTL all 3 panzerschifen were to have taken part in the operation but the grounding of Lützow reduced it to Graff Spee & Scheer only and I don't know whether having two ships make the sortie instead of one would have made a difference.
IOTL the Germans planned to attack PQ.18 with Hipper, Köln & Scheer (Lützow & Tirpitz were under repair). ITTL the plan would have been to attack the convoy with Graff Spee, Hipper, Köln & Scheer. IOTL Hitler cancelled the operation because he didn't want to risk losses to the surface fleet. Would it have gone ahead ITTL? Hitler had more ships to loose and attacking with four major warships instead of three reduced the chances of losses in the first place.
IOTL Scheer returned to Germany in October 1942, which is why she didn't participate in the Battle of the Barrents Sea and ITTL Graff Spee returned to Germany with her.
What happens after the Barrents Sea?
The result of that battle would have been the same as OTL in Scenario Two because Blücher was still sunk in April 1940 and Graff Spee returned to Germany with Scheer in October 1942. Therefore, Graff Spee would have spent the rest of the war in the Baltic with her sisters until she's sunk in an air raid.
And it's a similar fate for a surviving Blücher in Scenario One if the KM still fails to sink JW.51B. That is she would have spent the war in the Baltic with her sisters until she's sunk in an air raid. Or like Prinz Eugen survives the war and is given to one of the Allied nations as war reparations, maybe France as America, Britain and Russia were given surviving German cruisers IOTL.
However, if it was a clear victory in Scenario One Hitler and Raeder (who doesn't resign) may have maintained a stronger squadron in Norway. So maybe Scheer & Prinz Eugen go to Norway in March 1943 with Scharnhorst and after they complete their refits Blücher & Hipper join them later in 1943. Graff Spee & Lützow remain in Norway until September 1943 as already related, which reduced the KM's squadron at the end of 1943 to Blücher, Hipper, Prinz Eugen, Scharnhorst & Scheer, which was a great improvement on just Scharnhorst.
Thus ITTL Graff Spee, Lützow & Scheer would have been in Norway in the summer of 1943 and available to take part in Operation Husar. In which case the operation would have gone ahead when originally planned with the two operational ships (Graff Spee & Scheer) instead of as IOTL waiting until Lützow was repaired, only for the operation to be abandoned altogether, when aerial reconnaissance reported no traffic and heavy ice.
Would the extra German ships have taken part in the Battle of North Cape? Would they have been sunk like Scharnhorst? Would there have been a battle in the first place? That is would the Arctic Convoys have resumed after Tirpitz had been rendered hors de combat by the British midget submarines? A battle-cruiser supported by a panzerschiffe and three heavy cruisers was a much stronger force than one unsupported battle-cruiser. Therefore, there wouldn't have been a convoy JW.55 to attack because it and JW.54 (the November convoy) hadn't been sent.
Would JW.52 have sailed in January 1943 and JW.53 sailed in February 1943 had JW.51 been sunk by German surface forces? And if they had would the KM have tried to attack them in the same fashion as they had JW.51 in Scenario One? (I.e. with Blücher, Graff Spee, Hipper & Lützow.) No, because Hipper was sent to Germany in January 1943 IOTL and I think she would still have been sent home in January 1943 ITTL and Blücher would have gone with her. However, that still leaves Graff Spee & Lützow which would have been joined by Tirpitz which completed her repairs at the end of 1942.
And going back further than that would JW.51 have sailed if German surface forces had attacked PQ.18? Or for that matter would there have been a PQ.18 if German surface forces had attacked PQ.17? The number of ships sunk may not have been different but the German surface fleet would have sunk some of them (instead of the U-boats & Luftwaffe) and that might have made the threat of the German squadron in Norway appear even greater.
Which in turn means would PQ.17 have turned back or not sailed in the first place (instead of scattering) in the face of an even stronger German squadron in Norway? ITTL it had Hipper, Lützow, Scheer & Tirpitz. In Scenario Two it would have been Graff Spee, Hipper, Lützow, Scheer & Tirpitz and Scenario One it would have been Blücher, Graff Spee, Hipper, Lützow, Scheer & Tirpitz. Therefore, five heavy warships in Scenario Two and six in Scenario One instead of four IOTL. Would the presence of an extra panzerschiffe and an extra heavy cruiser in Norway have made the British abandon the Arctic Convoys in the summer of 1942 because the German surface force was too strong?
If that's what did happen, what's the effect on the Eastern Front of the cargoes aboard PQ.17, PQ.18 and JW.51 to 55 not reaching their destinations? Could the cargoes have been sent to Russia by other routes?
If there wasn't a PQ.17 then Graff Spee & Lützow accompany Scheer on her sortie into the Kara Sea ITTL because one or both (depending upon whether it's Scenario One or Scenario Two) don't run aground. It would be good propaganda for Germany regardless of whether they do more material damage.
