Effects of a surviving Jagiellonian dynasty in Poland-Lithuania?

[Fehérvári]

What if the Jagiellonian dynasty didn't come to an end with Sigismund II Augustus' death?

First of all, I know the Union of Lublin wouldn't be a thing, since there would be no need to create a real union between Poland and Lithuania for the two realms to remain connected. The Jagiellonians were hereditary rulers of Lithuania, so the Polish royal elections would remain a mere formality.

Ukraine would remain under Lithuanian rule, the same thing goes for the Duchy of Livonia.

As for Poland, the royal elections being just a mere formality would greatly improve royal/state authority compared to OTL. Not annexing Ukraine would also have similar effects, since it would restrict the creation of OTL's enormous Polish latifunda. Another interesting thing would be the continued autonomy of Royal Prussia.

Assuming the Livonian War has a similar outcome to OTL (maybe with earlier conclusion?), how could Poland-Lithuania fare in the years, decades, centuries to come?

Without the Vasas ascending to the PLC throne, how could Polish-Lithuanian-Swedish relations develop?

What about Ducal Prussia? Would the Jagiellonians permit Brandenburgian succession to the duchy? How would the question of the Prussian duke receiving representation in the Polish senate go ITTL?

Any other thing worth discussing?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Sigismund Augustus promised Brandenburgian branch right to succession in Ducal Prussia when he needed money for Livonian War. Still, it was not set in stone and his successors may ignore it (Prussian estates preffered incorporation over harsh Hohenzollern rule). Prussian Hohenzollerns may survive BTW (if Sigismund Augustus has daughters, one would likely marry Albrecht Friedrich).

 

[Fehérvári]

Sigismund Augustus promised Brandenburgian branch right to succession in Ducal Prussia when he needed money for Livonian War.

In 1569, right? Is it by any chance known how much was the payment?

Still, it was not set in stone and his successors may ignore it (Prussian estates preffered incorporation over harsh Hohenzollern rule).

I suppose that would even moreso be the case if Royal Prussia retains its autonomy, right?

Prussian Hohenzollerns may survive BTW (if Sigismund Augustus has daughters, one would likely marry Albrecht Friedrich).

Religion wouldn't be an issue? (To be honest, my actual idea here is to have a second son of a surviving Hungarian-Bohemian Jagiellonian branch to inherit Poland-Lithuania. I just wanted to avoid unproductive "butterfly talk" and made the question simpler.)

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Religion wouldn't be an issue?)

Not for Sigismund Augustus. He was not particulary religious.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Religion wouldn't be an issue? (To be honest, my actual idea here is to have a second son of a surviving Hungarian-Bohemian Jagiellonian branch to inherit Poland-Lithuania.

In this scenario Casimir Hohenzollern of Kulmbach is not going to die fighting for Habsburgs in Hungary and he was more closely related to Prussian Hohenzollerns (was brother of Albrecht Hohenzollern) than Electoral branch.

 

[Fehérvári]

In this scenario Casimir Hohenzollern of Kulmbach is not going to die fighting for Habsburgs in Hungary and he was more closely related to Prussian Hohenzollerns (was brother of Albrecht Hohenzollern) than Electoral branch.

Oh damn, I did not take that into account. Still, that would only apply if he had other sons beside Albert II or if the latter left surviving issue.

On another note, if Sig II can secure money by other means, then wouldn't that make the question of the Franconian Hohenzollerns' fate inconsequential in regards to Prussia?

I'm considering having Sig II securing the needed funds via Louis II (or his successor) redeeming the Polish mortgages in Hungary (13 towns in Spisz/Spiš/Szepes). The treaty accompanying the transfer would also reconfirm the sekundogenitur of Poland-Lithuania.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Even if Casimir Hohenzollern has no more sons, he'd raise his kids as Catholics (IOTL after death of Casimir his kids were raised by his Protestant brother George).

According to Treaty of Kraków from 1525 (between Albrecht Hohenzollern and his uncle Sigismund the Old) Albrecht's brothers and their male descendants had right to inherit Prussia if Albrecht had no sons.

 

[Fehérvári]

Even if Casimir Hohenzollern has no more sons, he'd raise his kids as Catholics (IOTL after death of Casimir his kids were raised by his Protestant brother George).

According to Treaty of Kraków from 1525 (between Albrecht Hohenzollern and his uncle Sigismund the Old) Albrecht's brothers and their male descendants had right to inherit Prussia if Albrecht had no sons.

Wait, does that mean we could get a Catholic-led Duchy of Prussia? How could that work out? Wouldn't the Teutonic Order raise a fuss over the issue?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Wait, does that mean we could get a Catholic-led Duchy of Prussia? How could that work out? Wouldn't the Teutonic Order raise a fuss over the issue?

What could Teutonic Order do after being crippled by reformation?

 

[Fehérvári]

What could Teutonic Order do after being crippled by reformation?

A Catholic taking over territory that was originally a church land appropiated by Protestants would raise quite a few questions concerning legality, I think. Still, I don't believe the Order could do much about the situation, but they might be able to force the new Duke to pay some kind of compensation ("purchase the duchy") to settle the question of legitimacy.

 

[marcinL]

Sigismund Augustus promised Brandenburgian branch right to succession in Ducal Prussia when he needed money for Livonian War. Still, it was not set in stone and his successors may ignore it (Prussian estates preffered incorporation over harsh Hohenzollern rule). Prussian Hohenzollerns may survive BTW (if Sigismund Augustus has daughters, one would likely marry Albrecht Friedrich).

IIRC Sigismund III also took money from Brandenburg, and a couple times to that.

 

[Fehérvári]

In a more generalistic approach, how would the power dynamics develop between Poland-Lithuania and Russia? Would greater royal power allow P-L to remain a competitive force in the region? Also, without the Vasa-dispute to poison the relations between Poland and Sweden, how would the two countries interact with each other? Would the Swedes desire to conquer more of Livonia or the Baltic possessions of Poland? Or would the Lithuanians ignite a conflict to snatch Estonia from the Swedes? Perhaps the two powers would maintain an alliance of convinence to deter Russian aggression? What do you think?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Eventually Poland and Sweden would quarrel over Livonia.

If it comes to Russia Poles in Moscow are less likely than IOTL, as Lithuania's stance was more defensive and Poles, with no Union of Lublin, have less reasons to get involved so far in the east.

 

[Fehérvári]

If it comes to Russia Poles in Moscow are less likely than IOTL

So the Time of Troubles would be less devastating for Russia ITTL (if it even happens), but Russian-P-L animosity would also remain more limited with the fate of Livonia remaining the primary source of dispute.

Eventually Poland and Sweden would quarrel over Livonia.

Adding in Russia to the mix, it seems to me there would be a 2nd Livonian War in the making.

With Polish aid to Lithuania uncertain (and probably tied to concessions), what can be expected to happen to Livonia?

Also, another thing I'm curious about, how different would be the development of Ukraine if it remains part of Lithuania? Would the Cossack uprisings still happen, for example?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Lithuania had less resources to develop Ukraine, so it will remain less populous and thus also less troublesome. In PLC Ukraine saw large scale Polish colonization (well, not exactly Polish, as settlers mostly came from Red Ruthenia, which was part of Poland long before 1569, and were Ruthenians themselves).

 

[Fehérvári]

Lithuania had less resources to develop Ukraine, so it will remain less populous and thus also less troublesome. In PLC Ukraine saw large scale Polish colonization (well, not exactly Polish, as settlers mostly came from Red Ruthenia, which was part of Poland long before 1569, and were Ruthenians themselves).

Wouldn't Lithuania have even harder time restraining the Cossacks and their raiding campaigns compared to the PLC though? That might seriously undermine relations with the Ottomans and lead to wars (in inopportune moments). To avoid that, the Lithuanians might still resort to forceful means to keep the Cossacks in line which could cause unrest and rebellions. Or not?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Wouldn't Lithuania have even harder time restraining the Cossacks and their raiding campaigns compared to the PLC though? That might seriously undermine relations with the Ottomans and lead to wars (in inopportune moments). To avoid that, the Lithuanians might still resort to forceful means to keep the Cossacks in line which could cause unrest and rebellions. Or not?

Just like Tatar raids, it happened all the time anyway. If your country had a peace with Crimean Khanate it just meant, that horde raiding your country was smaller than usually

 

[FouDuRoy]

A side effect would be that the men who became kings after Sigismund II in OTL would have totally different lives.
Henry III of France would never meet his OTL wife Louise of Lorraine as he met her during his travel to Poland. That means he would marry someone else (maybe Elizabeth Vasa who was the one Catherine de Medici wanted for him). That may or may not lead to a survival of the Valois, butterflying away the War of the Three Henrys and keeping Lower Navarre independant (and Calvinist).
Stephen Bathory would stay in Transylvania. I guess that would be okay.
Sigismund Vasa would stay in Sweden, meaning he would be the Catholic king of a Lutheran country. How would it work? What would be the consequences for Catholicism in Sweden? Would Sigismund manage to stay on his throne or would he still end up being overthrown by his uncle Charles?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Depending on PoD Sigismund Vasa likely does not exist or at least is not raised as Catholic if there is no prospect of him getting Polish throne.

 

[Fehérvári]

A side effect would be that the men who became kings after Sigismund II in OTL would have totally different lives.
Henry III of France would never meet his OTL wife Louise of Lorraine as he met her during his travel to Poland. That means he would marry someone else (maybe Elizabeth Vasa who was the one Catherine de Medici wanted for him). That may or may not lead to a survival of the Valois, butterflying away the War of the Three Henrys and keeping Lower Navarre independant (and Calvinist).

All of these are interesting developments in their own rights, but they are maybe less important in the greater scheme of things. The interests of France would still set the country on a course that is broadly similar to that of OTL. Meanwhile, rump Navarre on its own hardly even registered on the map. Maybe if the Bourbouns would return to Catholicism anyway, that could have some interesting effects.

Stephen Bathory would stay in Transylvania. I guess that would be okay.

Interestingly enough, the Báthorys did not actually have possessions in Transylvania, but rather a bit further West of it.

Sorry for the potato quality. It's the green one (somlyai branch). The dark turquoise is another branch of the family (ecsedi branch).

Sigismund Vasa would stay in Sweden, meaning he would be the Catholic king of a Lutheran country. How would it work? What would be the consequences for Catholicism in Sweden? Would Sigismund manage to stay on his throne or would he still end up being overthrown by his uncle Charles?

Depending on PoD Sigismund Vasa likely does not exist or at least is not raised as Catholic if there is no prospect of him getting Polish throne.

Gustavus Adolphus potentially being butterflied away does raise a few questions in regards to the developments of warfare. Would Spanish tercios remain the dominant force on the battlefield longer? Or was it high time for military reforms to appear anyway?

On another note, I'm curious about the potential ethnic-cultural developments in Lithuania. Would Ukraine and Belarus being part of the same polity cause them to develop a common national/ethnic identity eventually? Would that identity align well with being "Lithuanian"? Or alternatively, was Lithuania more or less granted to lose its Slavic lands to Russia eventually, rendering the last question moot?

Also, am I correct to assume that Polonisation wouldn't really be a thing in Lithuania ITTL?