Just putting out feelers for this one. In 1864 Jubal Early and about 15,000 men were sent by Lee to clear the Shennendoah Valley of Union troops, then to invade Maryland in an attempt to pull troops from threatening Richmond and Petersburg.
During the campaign Early actually came close to capturing the Federal capitol. The city was lightly garrisoned by raw troops, despite it's impressive fortifications. The battle of Monocacy sent about 6,000 green troops against Early's veteran army cost Early a day of marching at which point reinforcements did arrive in Washington. Early didn't arrive until two days later and he made the correct decision by not assaulting the city(though Lincoln did almost get shot when he decided to go out for a look).
Now as often enough things could have played out very differently from just a few small things. Suppose Wallace didn't manage to bottleneck Early's crossing of the Monocacy river? Suppose Early hadn't loitered in collecting ransom demands to spare the city of Frederick? Or if reinforcements from the Army of the Potomac under General Ricketts had been dispatched just a day later, or not at all? All kinds of scenarios where Early could avoid fighting that battle not only gaining back that day of marching but not exhausting his men in the process.
Now Early could reach Washington as early as the 10th of July. True Washington was the most fortified city at the point, but with few and inexperianced troops. Would Early, an aggressive general even by Southern standards, leap at this oppurtunity? He could quite possibly breakthrough the line, and roll it up. He'd suffer massive casualties but it very well could be worth it.
A successful incursion into the city would almost certainly bag them Lincoln. The President observed his halfhearted skirmish from Fort Stevens in OTL. Would he be able to stay away ITTL?
Now let's assume Early does somehow manage to occupy the city. Well mission acomplished, he'll certainly rouse the hornet's nest away from Petersburg. Grant will certainly march at least part of the Army of the Potomac to relieve the city. The question would then be would Early's men, although veterans, massively outnumbered be able to hold the city?
One of the objectives in Early's raid was to attempt to liberate the POW camp at Point Lookout. As many as 15,000 Confederate POW's were there at the time, the population having swelled since prisoner exchanges were terminated. Could this prison be liberated, and Early's force boosted? Would it make a difference?
More to the point even if a massive assault is made against Washington causing thousands of Union deaths, not to mention the morale factor of their capitol falling, would it be worth essentially losing Early's army? Or would it fall into a long scale siege similar to Vicksburg or Petersburg? Would this then free up Lee for some operation to prolong the war? And the longer this drags out, what does it do to the Northern government, many of whom would be captive?
During the campaign Early actually came close to capturing the Federal capitol. The city was lightly garrisoned by raw troops, despite it's impressive fortifications. The battle of Monocacy sent about 6,000 green troops against Early's veteran army cost Early a day of marching at which point reinforcements did arrive in Washington. Early didn't arrive until two days later and he made the correct decision by not assaulting the city(though Lincoln did almost get shot when he decided to go out for a look).
Now as often enough things could have played out very differently from just a few small things. Suppose Wallace didn't manage to bottleneck Early's crossing of the Monocacy river? Suppose Early hadn't loitered in collecting ransom demands to spare the city of Frederick? Or if reinforcements from the Army of the Potomac under General Ricketts had been dispatched just a day later, or not at all? All kinds of scenarios where Early could avoid fighting that battle not only gaining back that day of marching but not exhausting his men in the process.
Now Early could reach Washington as early as the 10th of July. True Washington was the most fortified city at the point, but with few and inexperianced troops. Would Early, an aggressive general even by Southern standards, leap at this oppurtunity? He could quite possibly breakthrough the line, and roll it up. He'd suffer massive casualties but it very well could be worth it.
A successful incursion into the city would almost certainly bag them Lincoln. The President observed his halfhearted skirmish from Fort Stevens in OTL. Would he be able to stay away ITTL?
Now let's assume Early does somehow manage to occupy the city. Well mission acomplished, he'll certainly rouse the hornet's nest away from Petersburg. Grant will certainly march at least part of the Army of the Potomac to relieve the city. The question would then be would Early's men, although veterans, massively outnumbered be able to hold the city?
One of the objectives in Early's raid was to attempt to liberate the POW camp at Point Lookout. As many as 15,000 Confederate POW's were there at the time, the population having swelled since prisoner exchanges were terminated. Could this prison be liberated, and Early's force boosted? Would it make a difference?
More to the point even if a massive assault is made against Washington causing thousands of Union deaths, not to mention the morale factor of their capitol falling, would it be worth essentially losing Early's army? Or would it fall into a long scale siege similar to Vicksburg or Petersburg? Would this then free up Lee for some operation to prolong the war? And the longer this drags out, what does it do to the Northern government, many of whom would be captive?
