Could the Ottomans Survive?

[Pkmatrix]

So, I've been glancing over the Wikipedia articles on the last years of the Ottoman Empire and I've been wondering: is there any way the Empire could avoid entering World War I and maintain its fledgling democracy? What sort of POD would be needed?

How much longer could the Ottomans survive? Could Ataturk still come to power in the late teens/early '20s, and would that enough to save the Empire from dissolution?

 

[Keenir]

So, I've been glancing over the Wikipedia articles on the last years of the Ottoman Empire and I've been wondering: is there any way the Empire could avoid entering World War I and maintain its fledgling democracy?

yes.

How much longer could the Ottomans survive?

until the US collapses.

Could Ataturk still come to power in the late teens/early '20s, and would that enough to save the Empire from dissolution?

it depends on if he works in the system or against it.

 

[I Blame Communism]

So, I've been glancing over the Wikipedia articles on the last years of the Ottoman Empire and I've been wondering: is there any way the Empire could avoid entering World War I and maintain its fledgling democracy? What sort of POD would be needed?

How much longer could the Ottomans survive? Could Ataturk still come to power in the late teens/early '20s, and would that enough to save the Empire from dissolution?

*Sigh*

The Ottomans were not predestined to fall apart at the slightest notice. After the Balkan Wars there were no realistic seperation movements in the Empire. They were in fact in a fine position which they threw away in the war.

And much as it may surprise some people, Mustafa Kemal is not the only Turkish politician. Not to say he won't become prominent, but seriously, it approaches Hitler coming to power in a German victory scenario in convergence terms to just immeidately think, of any early 20th century Turkish scenario, "Ataturk!"

 

[lothaw]

*Sigh*

The Ottomans were not predestined to fall apart at the slightest notice. After the Balkan Wars there were no realistic seperation movements in the Empire. They were in fact in a fine position which they threw away in the war.

And much as it may surprise some people, Mustafa Kemal is not the only Turkish politician. Not to say he won't become prominent, but seriously, it approaches Hitler coming to power in a German victory scenario in convergence terms to just immeidately think, of any early 20th century Turkish scenario, "Ataturk!"

Staying out of World War I definitely would have helped. Maybe not going after the Armenians would've helped as well. If they would've lasted 30 more years, they'd actually be in a good economic position by the time the second world war rolled around and oil was becoming vitally important.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Staying out of World War I definitely would have helped. Maybe not going after the Armenians would've helped as well. If they would've lasted 30 more years, they'd actually be in a good economic position by the time the second world war rolled around and oil was becoming vitally important.

Dun! DUN! DUN!

*Ghasp of gaseous human fear*

Did I hear the word... Armenian?!

Okay, seriously, saying that keeping out of WW1 improves Ottoman prospects is kinda like saying staying out of WW2 improves German prospects.

Not going into any perilous depth about the meaning of "going after", the Ottomans were in no way "going after" the Armenians until the war forced them to. Even wiki knows it. And given the portion of the population the Armenians made up anyway, they were in no position to threaten the integrity of the empire.

You say "lasted 30 years" like its unlikely and "WW2 rolls around" likes its inevitable. Wrong on both counts. But yes, sitting on top of a fat load of oil is one of the many reasons the Ottomans are likely to prosper of they stay out of WW1.

 

[ninebucks]

If the Ottoman Empire survived WWI, it could find itself under threat from the Soviet Union. The Ottoman Empire is a multi-ethnic state, and many of those ethnicities have exploitable grievances, the Soviet Union, with its position surrounding the Empire could destroy the Empire if it desired. In OTL, Turkey was relatively small and neutral, a surviving Ottoman Empire would be more threatening to the Soviets.

I agree that left to its own devices, the Ottoman Empire could continue for quite a while. But even after WWI there are plenty of external enemies that may chose to tear the Empire apart.

 

[I Blame Communism]

If the Ottoman Empire survived WWI, it could find itself under threat from the Soviet Union. The Ottoman Empire is a multi-ethnic state, and many of those ethnicities have exploitable grievances, the Soviet Union, with its position surrounding the Empire could destroy the Empire if it desired. In OTL, Turkey was relatively small and neutral, a surviving Ottoman Empire would be more threatening to the Soviets.

What Soviet Union is that? Open straits means a more credible Russian war effort. No Gallipoli, Iraq, or Sinai probably means a substantial Anglo-French force in Serbia by 1915. And that all probably means Austria is stretched to the limit by '16. Ottoman neutrality is highly likely to result in Entente victory and no Bolshevik Revolution.

If for some reason a Russian Civil War does break out, the Ottomans will obviously intervene. They'll occupy Kars and Batum in about three seconds, and then keep going. The Azeris will certainly help them, and the Armenians may be that sensible too. Daghestan and the Mountaineers would be keen on Ottoman protection, hell, maybe even a Crimean Tartar state! And from Baku, Central Asia is accesible and the Ottomans can stir up plenty of trouble.

And even assuming a Soviet Union, and one which the Ottomans inexplicably decide not to intervene in to establish a healthy buffer zone, the other powers will never accept Soviet adventurism against the Ottomans.

The Soviet Union does not surround the Ottomans by any stretch of the imagination.

What nationalities have exploitable grievances? If anything, even the Dashnaks are probably going to conciliate in the reform-packaged Ottoman Empire and concentrate their activities in Russian Armenia... unless of course the intervention I outlined creates an autonomous Ottoman Armenia with its capital at Yerevan. And I simply cannot think of anyone with any exploitable grievances save the Armenians.

I agree that left to its own devices, the Ottoman Empire could continue for quite a while. But even after WWI there are plenty of external enemies that may chose to tear the Empire apart.

Because of course contrary to all the evidence of WW1 the Ottomans are utterly incapable of self-defence.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Staying out of World War I definitely would have helped. Maybe not going after the Armenians would've helped as well. If they would've lasted 30 more years, they'd actually be in a good economic position by the time the second world war rolled around and oil was becoming vitally important.

Without WWI there would have been no Armenian issue (beyond what was already there) - what occurred was directly related to Ottoman entry in the war. If that had not happened, the Armenian revolutionaries would not have perceived an opportunity to launch their rebellion, and the Ottomans would not have perceived a mortal threat to their existence. No doubt there would still be a problem, but as the Armenians consituted only a small minority, I doubt it would lead to such a disastrous end.

Also, the war would most likely remove the Russian veto on rail building in eastern Anatolia - that in itself would remove most of the Armenian problem, which was largely related to the inability of the Ottomans to maintain security in a mountainous region with terrible communications.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

If the Ottoman Empire survived WWI, it could find itself under threat from the Soviet Union. The Ottoman Empire is a multi-ethnic state, and many of those ethnicities have exploitable grievances, the Soviet Union, with its position surrounding the Empire could destroy the Empire if it desired. In OTL, Turkey was relatively small and neutral, a surviving Ottoman Empire would be more threatening to the Soviets.

I agree that left to its own devices, the Ottoman Empire could continue for quite a while. But even after WWI there are plenty of external enemies that may chose to tear the Empire apart.

By 1914, the Ottoman Empire isn't all that multi-ethnic anymore. The only peoples that have large territorial areas where they are majorities are Turks and Arabs. External threats are the type of thing that would cause the Arab population to cling to the empire, not leave it.

Also, the Soviet Union, or whatever replaces the Tsarist empire, including there being no replacement (it continues) has plenty of ethnic minorities with grievances that are also inconveniently overwhelmingly Hanefite Sunni Muslim, with direct sympathy for the Ottoman Caliph, so it's a two-way street.

The war also have the empire the opportunity to abolish the Capitulations, which were the mechanism for foreign interference in the empire's affairs - that more or less restored full sovereignty to the empire.

With regard to the future, hard to say. If liberal-democratic development continues, the empire could continue indefinitely, maybe with greater local autonomy.

 

[Hashasheen]

What Soviet Union is that? Open straits means a more credible Russian war effort. No Gallipoli, Iraq, or Sinai probably means a substantial Anglo-French force in Serbia by 1915. And that all probably means Austria is stretched to the limit by '16. Ottoman neutrality is highly likely to result in Entente victory and no Bolshevik Revolution.

Who said they had to open the straights? They could still remain Central Powers-affiliated, and not allow ships to got through, citing complete neutrality. That would still hurt the Russians.

 

[Hashasheen]

-snip-

You need to write this damn TL, as the premier expert on Ottomans.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Who said they had to open the straights? They could still remain Central Powers-affiliated, and not allow ships to got through, citing complete neutrality. That would still hurt the Russians.

True enough, although I would imagine that neutrality in the first place implies a more pro-Entente policy, and the Entente could probably apply some suitable diplomatic pressure

 

[Grimm Reaper]

It took the most bloody and pointless war in human history to bring down the Ottomans and it also brought down many other states considered much more secure and stronger than the OE.

Avoid WWI, the Ottoman Empire survives. Keep the Ottoman Empire out of WWI or on the Entente's side, they also survive.

 

[Pkmatrix]

*Sigh*

The Ottomans were not predestined to fall apart at the slightest notice. After the Balkan Wars there were no realistic seperation movements in the Empire. They were in fact in a fine position which they threw away in the war.

And much as it may surprise some people, Mustafa Kemal is not the only Turkish politician. Not to say he won't become prominent, but seriously, it approaches Hitler coming to power in a German victory scenario in convergence terms to just immeidately think, of any early 20th century Turkish scenario, "Ataturk!"

I didn't intend to imply any sort of inevitablility in the Ottoman collapse, it was more a question of what needed to have changed in OTL to prevent the OTL result.

Since it seems that preventing the Ottomans from entering WWI is essential, how about this for a POD (again, based on my weak understanding of the sequence of events according to Wiki):

WI the German warships Goben and Breslau are sunk by the Allies BEFORE they reach the Dardanelles, thereby preventing the shelling of Thesalonica and Russia's declaration of war?

 

[I Blame Communism]

I didn't intend to imply any sort of inevitablility in the Ottoman collapse, it was more a question of what needed to have changed in OTL to prevent the OTL result.

Since it seems that preventing the Ottomans from entering WWI is essential, how about this for a POD (again, based on my weak understanding of the sequence of events according to Wiki):

WI the German warships Goben and Breslau are sunk by the Allies BEFORE they reach the Dardanelles, thereby preventing the shelling of Thesalonica and Russia's declaration of war?

Ah, good to here. Yeah, Goeben and Breslau are nothing but trouble, but I'm not actually very familiar with the process of the Ottomans going to war. AHP is your man there.

 

[Hendryk]

You need to write this damn TL, as the premier expert on Ottomans.

Seconded. This TL needs writing.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Seconded. This TL needs writing.

Thirded. It's a fascinating topic which, I think we all agree, you're the only man for. I'd read it, and be happy to place what meager resources of knowledge I have at its disposal.

 

[Lord Insane]

Since it seems that preventing the Ottomans from entering WWI is essential, how about this for a POD (again, based on my weak understanding of the sequence of events according to Wiki):

Well, one might pull it off with some Central Powers Win scenarios, but that in itself would have effects far beyond the Empire surviving and butterflies ensuing, so...

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I didn't intend to imply any sort of inevitablility in the Ottoman collapse, it was more a question of what needed to have changed in OTL to prevent the OTL result.

Since it seems that preventing the Ottomans from entering WWI is essential, how about this for a POD (again, based on my weak understanding of the sequence of events according to Wiki):

WI the German warships Goben and Breslau are sunk by the Allies BEFORE they reach the Dardanelles, thereby preventing the shelling of Thesalonica and Russia's declaration of war?

They actually shelled Odessa and other Black Sea ports - Thessalonika is in Greece, and probably still had a large Turkish population since the Ottomans just lost it a year previously.

Getting rid of Goeben would be a big factor - I think it's arrival was instrumental in Ottoman entry as it gave Enver Pasha the vital tool he needed to force the government's hand.

 

[RGB]

I'm sure it's been mentioned elsewhere, but if Churchill doesn't appropriate the BBs meant for Turkey for the anti-German war effort, then 3 British BBs surely outweigh the Goeben and the Ottomans stay on-side. Russia might do a lot better with the straits open, and with some friendly lepidopteran help could well survive the war.

On the other hand, there's also less incentive to fight as hard as they did because other than saving Serbia and maybe grabbing Galicia, there's no reason for Russia to stick it out in WW1, losing all those casulaties and all that infrastructure. It's not like the Straits are in question now. And the fact that they were exporting grain taken from starving peasants wouldn't change because the Straits are open.