Can Case Blue Be Successful
- Thread starter m0585
- Start date
I'm not going to go into a lengthy debate with anyone over this but the answer is yes.
The Germans could have done much much better than OTL, they could and did take Maikop, they likely could take Grozny, but the real troubles begin when it comes to Baku. Unless the Soviet forces in the Caucasus fall apart (lack of logistics, morale, etc) the Germans would likely not be able to break through the Caucasus mountains and capture Baku, Tiflis, and Batumi in 1942.
The Germans could have done much much better than OTL, they could and did take Maikop, they likely could take Grozny, but the real troubles begin when it comes to Baku. Unless the Soviet forces in the Caucasus fall apart (lack of logistics, morale, etc) the Germans would likely not be able to break through the Caucasus mountains and capture Baku, Tiflis, and Batumi in 1942.
I wonder if this happens how large a army group the US/Brits form in Persia in 1943? The Commonwealth had the skeleton of such formed in the ME, and the expansion of the Persian railway was well underway.
Ian_W
Banned
Leaving an entire long left flank for the Soviets to counter-attack has it's own issues.
Deleted member 1487
Do a forum search, it's been done several times already. There are only so many times we can argue the same point.
Disclaimer aside, Case Blue did achieve some of it's aims in that it did seize a major oilfield, but was unable to exploit it or maintain the position long enough to eventually exploit it. Baku was a pipe dream and even Grozny was a field too far. Blue could have taken Stalingrad and secured the flank, but then that would make the push into the Caucasus either highly delayed or deferred for another campaign season and therefore unlikely or unable to happen entirely. Securing the flank was the plan first and doable had Hitler not interfered and diverted 4th Panzer Army.
Versus the historical mess:
Cover that with some third rate corps. Maybe some ally formations? It'll be fine.
Now I'm looking at the map & contemplating the Allied Caucasus front had the Soviet armies there collapsed.
Deleted member 1487
The logistics of that sort of campaign would be difficult to say the least...and would eat up the Persian Corridor's ability to provide any LL.
Ramontxo
Donor
Except for some high octane aviation fuel the USSR produced all of its oil. That is very difficult to substitute (probably impossible). Taking Stalingrad and cutting the Volga would go a long way to deprive the Soviet Army from its oil.
Deleted member 1487
The Volga was cut IOTL at multiple places, the Caspian Sea was the highway of oil shipments with tankers shifting to the Ural river instead of the Volga.
As I recall Baku oil accounted for 3/4 of the annual soviet fuel consumption , which was about 18 million tons.
Shutting it down would help but not halt the fuel supply.
That's got to be a 300-400 km front. I would think an entire army would be needed.
https://www.joelhayward.org/Too-Little-Too-Late.2.pdf
This interesting article suggests that if the amount of bombs dropped on Stalingrad in fall of 1942 - had instead been dropped on Baku, it could have crippled the soviet war economy for 'several months'.
Shutting it down would help but not halt the fuel supply.
That's got to be a 300-400 km front. I would think an entire army would be needed.
https://www.joelhayward.org/Too-Little-Too-Late.2.pdf
This interesting article suggests that if the amount of bombs dropped on Stalingrad in fall of 1942 - had instead been dropped on Baku, it could have crippled the soviet war economy for 'several months'.
Last edited:
Not so much. I read most of the oil went by rail (built that year, because they needed it that bad) to Astrakhan- the Caspian shipping supplemented, but would have taken investment to cover the full load.
What good is the oil to the Germans considering that there is no refineries there and they would need to ship it all back to Germany to refine it and then send it back. How do they get the oil from the oil fields to the Black sea Harbors? I presume that the German would want to go that way and not the long way around the Black sea over land
Deleted member 1487
Do you have a source on that? Even if the Caucasus is lost totally the USSR was still getting Iran's oil and had 30% of it's oil production outside of the Caucasus left.